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[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
The rank and file might have this, but the leaders still need to keep everyone fed, armed, moving in generally the same direction, organize recruitment etc.

Guns and food and men dont rain from the sky. You have to organize their collection and distribution, otherwise your guns wont shoot and your men will starve. The moment they start to starve, your conscription army disintegrates around you. Yes, if we invaded Victorian territory right now, it would be just the kind of red meat to throw to the rank and file grunts to turn around and focus all of their attention on kicking us out.

But thats the thing, their leaders very specifically know the reality of their situation. They are in the know on who pulls the strings in Victoria and why even if they pretend it isnt the case at night.

If they focus all of their power on us, then the loyalists will plow into their rear lines and end them. They started a civil war against Blackwell as a traitor commie usurper. Or he started one against them. It doesn't matter, they are in a fight for their lives and the future of Victoria. We are just a bunch of vultures looking to steal what isnt ours. They have all the time in the world to show us Victorian Mettle. They do not have the time to hope that Blackwell will play nice and allow them to attack us without getting a few licks in.

And they know it, and we know they know it.
I think you're making too long an inferential chain about their reasoning and mentality.

I can make just as plausible a chain.

What is the Crusaders' single biggest disadvantage? Political legitimacy. The machinery of the Victorian state and the propaganda assets of the Inquisition and Church aren't responding to their wishes or calling out the men of Victoria to support them. Blackwell and the Inquisitors hold the political high ground, even as the Crusaders' powerful weaponry and the disorganized state of the militias give the Crusaders some advantages in battle.

Why do the Crusaders lack this legitimacy? Firstly, because their claims that the regular army sold out the state and is too corrupt to really fight the CFC's communists are unsubstantiated. Secondly, because Alexander lacks faith in them and has not ordered the parts of the machinery of the state that are specifically obedient to him to follow them. Thirdly, because the Victorian people are going to be hesitant to join an uprising (this is a de facto uprising) that fights only other Victorians.

How can the Crusaders gain legitmacy? Well, putting Blackwell's head on a pike would certainly help, but crushing an exposed detachment of communist troops in an overextended position WOULD help them gain reputation and respect and useful territory with economic value. They can't possibly win this battle on material factors alone, and Victoria's 'fourth generation warfare' doctrine (which the CMC are double plus super fanatics about) disdains such factors anyway. They will believe that they must win this conflict on a 'moral' or morale level, and that means they may see it as necessary and proper to attack us in directions and ways we wouldn't expect.
 
[X] Sit on it for now. When the quest resumes properly (still not yet), we will resume treaty negotiations.

I don't like the odds honestly. I still remember that we've got a 34 for our roll last time. And the actions we'll have to take in the event of failure (military, intrigue and diplomatic) will hurt our ability to capitalize on our victory.

Not to mention the potential for failure to hold the Wellqnd Canal or the Crusaders getting cheeky and destroying our garrison there.
 
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[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Sit on it for now. When the quest resumes properly (still not yet), we will resume treaty negotiations.

Let's not trust RNGesus to smile on us, when he's already grumpy to the tune of -40, people?
 
[X] Sit on it for now. When the quest resumes properly (still not yet), we will resume treaty negotiations.

to much risk for to little reward
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

#yolo
 
[X] Sit on it for now. When the quest resumes properly (still not yet), we will resume treaty negotiations.

The Random Number God is a stern and fickle deity, and I'm not about to take fifty percent odds of getting jack squat from this whole infernal negotiation.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

Because even if the Random Number Goddess screws us over again, the consequence of that happening aren't anywhere near as bad as before:
In light of the new information, though, he claims to find the Welland Canal strike more feasible now given the Loyalists' incredibly weak command and control structures as well as their need to focus somewhere inland, although he claims that it's still impossible to sustain if the Loyalists bring their full focus against you. He's pretty sure that pulling it off would all-but-guarantee a peace favorable to you, and the month of negotiations you've undertaken thus far has given you supply stockpiles a bit of time to recover. In short, he thinks you have the best shot at it now.

If it fails, we seized Welland and then make another overture with even more improved of conditions for us.

Since we'd need to send forces to defend any ships using the Seaway anyway, thanks to the Crusaders no longer being pinned in place, we don't even lose much in the way of opportunity cost from not demobilizing since we'd not be able to demobilize anyway.
 
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[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

Ah man, Blackwell is just gonna drop dead of stress. He has the shittiest luck.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

I tried doing 5 rolls just for lulz. It turns out a lot better than expected.
taovkool threw 5 100-faced dice. Reason: For lulz Total: 350
46 46 100 100 99 99 84 84 21 21
 
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[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
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