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...Do mine eyes deceive me? Has this quest returned like a phoenix from limbo? *reads update* Okay 2 things I would to say. @PoptartProdigy, it is good to see you back in action. I hope your life is going well for ya. Now onto the update itself.

*ahem* AHAHAHA GET BENT YOU VICK FUCKOS! PLEASE, KEEP FIGHTING, THIS IS THE BEST ENTERTAINMENT WE'VE HAD SINCE YOU KILLED THE INTERNET!
 
Because keeping our military at war footing will cost a lot of resources that we could use to strengthen the military or pour into other issues and our artillery ammo for one is basically depleted. Also, Buffalo is less than 40 miles from the Welland Canal. We are highly unlikely to be able to hold the canal if the Crusaders turn west and try to smash our occupying forces.

The Crusaders hate us as much as they hate Blackwell. Even though they moved inland it won't take too much time for them to turn around and attack our forces at the canal if we take it.

I'm not going to put words in the GM's mouth but why would the Crusaders attack us instead of the loyalists? Their goal is to take over the government, not to 'win the war' against the heretics and then lose to the loyalists. Unless the GM is going to do a writer's fiat, almost every rebel force that is decently-led will do the logical option..

As for the resources needed to keep a war footing, its presumably vastly cheaper to keep at it now rather than to have to fight round two with a strengthened Victoria who have crushed the rebels. If necessary, we can dig-in (and that neatly ties their units on the line against us) and partially demobilize while the victorians and rebels fight it out.

And whenever the stalemate between them is broken, we'll supply arms to the other side. Keep them fighting, keep them weak.
 
I'm not going to put words in the GM's mouth but why would the Crusaders attack us instead of the loyalists? Their goal is to take over the government, not to 'win the war' against the heretics and then lose to the loyalists. Unless the GM is going to do a writer's fiat, almost every rebel force that is decently-led will do the logical option..

As for the resources needed to keep a war footing, its presumably vastly cheaper to keep at it now rather than to have to fight round two with a strengthened Victoria who have crushed the rebels. If necessary, we can dig-in (and that neatly ties their units on the line against us) and partially demobilize while the victorians and rebels fight it out.

And whenever the stalemate between them is broken, we'll supply arms to the other side. Keep them fighting, keep them weak.
A potential reason for them to turn around and attack us is to gain legitimacy by gaining a victory over a hated enemy that has destroyed the Victorian army. They smash our garrison and use that to push themselves as the right path over Blackwell who is 'negotiating' with the hated commies.
 
Also, do we acctually need to hold the canal?

What I mean is that if negotiations breakdown, we could perform a strike to take the canal and then reopen negotiations from the position of "you can have your land back if you agree to our terms". Showing that we have not been bluffing about forcing them into a two front war.

Even though the attack on the canal would in reality just be a bigger bluff.
 
ok so after rereading it, hardball is a lesser plan, and has a 90% of working, sticking to our guns has a 45% of working, but we're in a better position to force them to the table again. the difference in the plans is sticking to our guns has the below concessions.

Victoria shall acknowledge that they are solely responsible for the war starting, and apologize for both that and any war crimes committed by their forces during the course of the campaign. Victoria will publicly assume fault for the war and any wrongdoing committed during it, and issue formal apologies.
Victoria's aid workers are, sometimes, genuinely well-meaning aid workers helping to lessen the impact of the Collapse. However, they always travel with an Inquisitor, who acts as a forward observer for the Army. Even the benign aid workers are happy to share their findings with people back home. By forcing Victoria to admit the true nature of these aid workers and requiring that local power structures are permitted to expel aid workers without consequences, you could score a massive diplomatic success while greatly weakening Victoria's grip on the continent. Forcibly ensure that aid workers are voluntary.
-[ ] Annulment Clause: Victoria's dominance is maintained through hard power and soft power, among them a web of treaties and security arrangements limiting the military power of various regions and governments across the Country. This is going to be one of the hardest conditions you could ask for, because it means that once Victoria starts trying to reestablish itself, it will be doing so completely from scratch. That said...completely from scratch. Victoria will annul any and all treaties regarding security arrangements or military composition with any and all polities on the continent of North America.
Victoria prides itself on a starkly interventionist trade policy, with tariffs freely deployed as a tool of commerce with everybody but their Russian masters and those Russia presently favors. Forcing a free trade agreement would take a hammer to that, causing intense havoc all on its own, even before you factor in the potential for the Commonwealth to establish some measure of influence in the Victorian economy. Establish free trade between the Commonwealth and Victoria.

reading through this, this treaty is a deathblow. the hardball treaty still does a lot of economic damage, and still forces them to open up internal markets to everyone, but this one does that while utterly eradicating their diplomatic standing, Which due to the other concessions they will be missing a lot of the tools they would need to rebuild. this treaty legitimately might collapse victoria. It could also go wrong and get us nothing.
 
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Also, do we acctually need to hold the canal?

What I mean is that if negotiations breakdown, we could perform a strike to take the canal and then reopen negotiations from the position of "you can have your land back if you agree to our terms". Showing that we have not been bluffing about forcing them into a two front war.

Even though the attack on the canal would in reality just be a bigger bluff.
We'd need to put strong defenses along the canal if we plan to use it either way, because the incredibly high likelihood of attacks-of-opportunity on our shipping by Victorians of one stripe or another (perhaps intended to look like the other side did it, too).
ok so after rereading it, hardball is a lesser plan, and has a 90% of working, sticking to our guns has a 45% of working, but we're in a better position to force them to the table again. the difference in the plans is sticking to our guns has the below concessions.

Victoria shall acknowledge that they are solely responsible for the war starting, and apologize for both that and any war crimes committed by their forces during the course of the campaign. Victoria will publicly assume fault for the war and any wrongdoing committed during it, and issue formal apologies.
Victoria's aid workers are, sometimes, genuinely well-meaning aid workers helping to lessen the impact of the Collapse. However, they always travel with an Inquisitor, who acts as a forward observer for the Army. Even the benign aid workers are happy to share their findings with people back home. By forcing Victoria to admit the true nature of these aid workers and requiring that local power structures are permitted to expel aid workers without consequences, you could score a massive diplomatic success while greatly weakening Victoria's grip on the continent. Forcibly ensure that aid workers are voluntary.
-[ ] Annulment Clause: Victoria's dominance is maintained through hard power and soft power, among them a web of treaties and security arrangements limiting the military power of various regions and governments across the Country. This is going to be one of the hardest conditions you could ask for, because it means that once Victoria starts trying to reestablish itself, it will be doing so completely from scratch. That said...completely from scratch. Victoria will annul any and all treaties regarding security arrangements or military composition with any and all polities on the continent of North America.
Victoria prides itself on a starkly interventionist trade policy, with tariffs freely deployed as a tool of commerce with everybody but their Russian masters and those Russia presently favors. Forcing a free trade agreement would take a hammer to that, causing intense havoc all on its own, even before you factor in the potential for the Commonwealth to establish some measure of influence in the Victorian economy. Establish free trade between the Commonwealth and Victoria.

reading through this, this treaty is a deathblow. the hardball treaty still does a lot of economic damage, and still forces them to open up internal markets to everyone, but this one does that while utterly eradicating their diplomatic standing, Which due to the other concessions they will be missing a lot of the tools they would need to rebuild. this treaty legitimately might collapse victoria. It could also go wrong and get us nothing.
Note that it wouldn't be 45% chance for the pressure here to succeed, it's 50% because we're not getting the +5% penalty on this (or if we are, then @PoptartProdigy didn't put it in the post)
 
The treaty we are getting even without this is amazing already, it vastly speeds up our reindustrializing and rearmament plans and is a massive PR boost going into the midwest conference, and the clauses we could get just aren't worth the 50% chance of having to continue to fight in my eyes. Do remember that taking the canal is the limit of what we can feasibly do, and if the vics realize that we can't go further we probably won't get nearly as good a treaty, and if it draws on long enough the conference might be done by the time we get a treaty and we wouldn't have nearly as massive a PR bonus. Also with putting defenses on the canal, it wouldn't be hard to get other polities to help defend it as well, possibly even non american/canadian ones or even the loyalist vics, so it wouldn't be nearly as much of an investment.
tl;dr I don't think it's worth the risk
 
[] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

50% chance to get everything, and if we fail, we can take the canal and push them again. We don't know what the odds are on the roll after taking the canal, but even if we are extremely conservative it's unlikely to be less than a -10 to the DC, which means our chance of failing at reveal and at the canal is at least 20% (1-.5-.6*.5), and quite possibly significantly better than that. I think evn a 50% chance to get everything we want is probably worth it, so with that extra option it just sweetens the pot for me.
 
[] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

I really don't want to go right back to round 3 of arguing about what to stick in our final treaty. This has a pretty good odds of getting us everything we wanted, and even if it doesn't we can have a war turn or two (possibly even a regular turn instead) before we have to get back to a contentions treaty vote - which I consider an excellent consolation prize.
 
Note that it wouldn't be 45% chance for the pressure here to succeed, it's 50% because we're not getting the +5% penalty on this (or if we are, then @PoptartProdigy didn't put it in the post)
The -40% replaces the +5%, yes.
@PoptartProdigy

just to verify, we could not do a slight revision to do hardball but a bit harder due to lacking the time to renegotiate right?
Pretty much. If you want to renegotiate and then hit with it, you pick the second option. This is if you, upon the Vicks telling you to fuck off with the first offer, lean across the table and go, "No, you, or we'll do worse to you than the CMC just did to your lines at Buffalo."
 
[ ] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

If anything, I think we should press harder while they're psychologically off-balance.
 
[] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.

I'm all for striking while the iron is hot.
 
EMERGENCY UPDATE FROM BUFFALO
Well then. The war is looking to be even more physically destructive than we had hoped.
How long before Alexei throws up his hands in disgust and physically intervenes by airlifting a regiment or two of VDV into Boston along with a couple squadrons of Su-25s and Su-34s and calling a time out?

On the other hand, I presume the pilots of the VAF are very quietly grateful that we are keeping them out of this fratricidal conflict.
That kind of choice is agonizing.

Pick one of the following.
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.

Looking at this one map,
*Further responses*
My apologies, but I cannot address this now.
I promise to give a full reply hopefully later tonight, or maybe tomorrow.

The problem is that we don't really have any militarily viable method of "keeping pressing them."
Not entirely accurate.
We do have militarily viable options, like supplying the Crusaders with logistical support. Or releasing a bunch of air force POWs with a squadron of F16s and light recon aircraft and some munitions.

The problem is that those options have political and PR repercussions that we probably don't want.
 
Because keeping our military at war footing will cost a lot of resources that we could use to strengthen the military or pour into other issues and our artillery ammo for one is basically depleted. Also, Buffalo is less than 40 miles from the Welland Canal. We are highly unlikely to be able to hold the canal if the Crusaders turn west and try to smash our occupying forces.

The Crusaders hate us as much as they hate Blackwell. Even though they moved inland it won't take too much time for them to turn around and attack our forces at the canal if we take it.
Point of order:
Third, and boldest, would be a strike on the Welland Canal. While the Canal is held by loyalists at the moment, it is threatened by the Crusaders, who themselves are dealing with constant assaults on Buffalo. With both sides distracted, the small geographical area the Canal comprises, and the Canal's low value to either side until their civil war is concluded, it would be more than possible to launch a strike on the Canal and seize it while neither side can effectively respond. Calling for peace talks again after having occupied a strategic chokepoint within Victorian territory, while they are unable to effectively respond, would greatly strengthen your negotiating position, especially since the Victorians presumably still don't realize that you can't sustain an offensive. That said, it'd be the riskiest option; your ammunition stockpiles have recovered enough to launch this attack and resist a counterattack, but you can't keep up much more than a month of operations; if the Victorians refuse to bargain, you'd have to pull back, revealing your vulnerability and likely sinking the possibility of peace talks entirely.
The Welland Canal is currently held by Loyalists. Blackwell's people.
The Crusaders have not been able to spare the force to dislodge them. They would not be likely to turn to save a bunch of Blackwell loyalists with Blackwell's forces behind them.

Doesn't necessarily meant that an operation to capture the Welland Canal is a good idea on the strategic scale, mind.
Just saying that operationally, the risk of getting jumped by the Crusaders while we are kicking the shit out of a Loyalist holding is not very likely.
 
Here's a question; What's the name of the commander leading the Crusader faction in the VCW? We know that Blackwell is leading the Loyalists, who's his opposing counterpart.
 
Here's a question; What's the name of the commander leading the Crusader faction in the VCW? We know that Blackwell is leading the Loyalists, who's his opposing counterpart.
Not stated.
Given that the Inquisitors attempted to coup their senior officers, they may well be led by the surviving junior officers in a council.
 
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
 
I'm not going to put words in the GM's mouth but why would the Crusaders attack us instead of the loyalists? Their goal is to take over the government, not to 'win the war' against the heretics and then lose to the loyalists. Unless the GM is going to do a writer's fiat, almost every rebel force that is decently-led will do the logical option..
The Crusaders are extra double plus super fanatics, though. Remember that these are the guys whose fanaticism gives them a +2 to combat rolls; it is kind of fucking ridiculous.

I can totally imagine them deciding that crushing a small, badly overextended force of heretic Communist invaders into the mud on Victorian soil would be a great way to secure their legitimacy, wipe out the stain of the destruction of the (old) Moses Division, and not coincidentally seize more territory around Buffalo and get their hands on the Welland Canal, giving them significant leverage over any maritime activity trying to cross from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario or vice versa.

As for the resources needed to keep a war footing, its presumably vastly cheaper to keep at it now rather than to have to fight round two with a strengthened Victoria who have crushed the rebels.
I don't think this is an either-or decision. The civil war won't last forever; we can't make it last forever realistically. Whoever wins will consolidate; we ourselves cannot plausibly bulk up enough to literally conquer Victoria in the time available before the civil war ends.

And whenever the stalemate between them is broken, we'll supply arms to the other side. Keep them fighting, keep them weak.
Supplying arms to any Victorian faction will cause a political scandal in the Commonwealth, because the Commonwealth is united in hating Victorians and wanting them to fail. Arming any group of Vicks, even to fight other Vicks, is going to be very unpopular.

Well then. The war is looking to be even more physically destructive than we had hoped.
How long before Alexei throws up his hands in disgust and physically intervenes by airlifting a regiment or two of VDV into Boston along with a couple squadrons of Su-25s and Su-34s and calling a time out?
I doubt it.

I think Alexander doesn't really care about who runs Victoria as long as they're militarily competent. If Blackwell wins, it confirms what the Czar probably suspected all along- that he can run the place. If he fails with all his advantages, he was never going to make a worthwhile proxy anyway, and it'd be better to just work with the Crusaders who are already most closely accustomed to using his equipment.

On the other hand, I presume the pilots of the VAF are very quietly grateful that we are keeping them out of this fratricidal conflict.
That kind of choice is agonizing.
I think in this case, given that the VAF is chronically under suspicion as the ultimate 'nerds' of the Victorian military, while the Crusaders are its most ideologically fanatical 'jocks,' that the VAF pilots would not find this hard at all and would merrily bomb the shit out of the Crusaders, at least until their planes fell out of the sky or were casually shot down by whatever air defense weaponry the Crusaders possess.

Point of order:

The Welland Canal is currently held by Loyalists. Blackwell's people.
The Crusaders have not been able to spare the force to dislodge them. They would not be likely to turn to save a bunch of Blackwell loyalists with Blackwell's forces behind them.

Doesn't necessarily meant that an operation to capture the Welland Canal is a good idea on the strategic scale, mind.
Just saying that operationally, the risk of getting jumped by the Crusaders while we are kicking the shit out of a Loyalist holding is not very likely.
I mean. The Crusaders might very well decide that "the heretics and the communists are fighting among themselves" is the PERFECT time for the faithful to jump upon both of them and chop them up piecemeal. Or they might (given that they have two divisions of heavily armed mechanized troops) decide to wait until we've finished fighting Blackwell's men (big blobs of citizen militias) and are spread out over a bunch of ground, then hit us really hard and rupture our position, while Blackwell sits back and laughs as his enemies pound on each other.

Remember that the only asset we have that can handle a CMC mechanized division on the open battlefield is the Devil Brigade, and the only way to reliably beat one is to expend some of the remaining Old World Equipment. Last time the CMC was obliging enough to charge into the Devil Brigade's guns and get slaughtered, but there is no guarantee we'll be able to deal with them as cleanly this time. If nothing else because now they have two such divisions, and the Devil Brigade can only be in one place at a time, and needs some refit time between expenditures of Old World Equipment.
 
The Crusaders are extra double plus super fanatics, though. Remember that these are the guys whose fanaticism gives them a +2 to combat rolls; it is kind of fucking ridiculous.

I can totally imagine them deciding that crushing a small, badly overextended force of heretic Communist invaders into the mud on Victorian soil would be a great way to secure their legitimacy, wipe out the stain of the destruction of the (old) Moses Division, and not coincidentally seize more territory around Buffalo and get their hands on the Welland Canal, giving them significant leverage over any maritime activity trying to cross from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario or vice versa.

I don't think this is an either-or decision. The civil war won't last forever; we can't make it last forever realistically. Whoever wins will consolidate; we ourselves cannot plausibly bulk up enough to literally conquer Victoria in the time available before the civil war ends.

Supplying arms to any Victorian faction will cause a political scandal in the Commonwealth, because the Commonwealth is united in hating Victorians and wanting them to fail. Arming any group of Vicks, even to fight other Vicks, is going to be very unpopular.

I doubt it.

I think Alexander doesn't really care about who runs Victoria as long as they're militarily competent. If Blackwell wins, it confirms what the Czar probably suspected all along- that he can run the place. If he fails with all his advantages, he was never going to make a worthwhile proxy anyway, and it'd be better to just work with the Crusaders who are already most closely accustomed to using his equipment.

I think in this case, given that the VAF is chronically under suspicion as the ultimate 'nerds' of the Victorian military, while the Crusaders are its most ideologically fanatical 'jocks,' that the VAF pilots would not find this hard at all and would merrily bomb the shit out of the Crusaders, at least until their planes fell out of the sky or were casually shot down by whatever air defense weaponry the Crusaders possess.

I mean. The Crusaders might very well decide that "the heretics and the communists are fighting among themselves" is the PERFECT time for the faithful to jump upon both of them and chop them up piecemeal. Or they might (given that they have two divisions of heavily armed mechanized troops) decide to wait until we've finished fighting Blackwell's men (big blobs of citizen militias) and are spread out over a bunch of ground, then hit us really hard and rupture our position, while Blackwell sits back and laughs as his enemies pound on each other.

Remember that the only asset we have that can handle a CMC mechanized division on the open battlefield is the Devil Brigade, and the only way to reliably beat one is to expend some of the remaining Old World Equipment. Last time the CMC was obliging enough to charge into the Devil Brigade's guns and get slaughtered, but there is no guarantee we'll be able to deal with them as cleanly this time. If nothing else because now they have two such divisions, and the Devil Brigade can only be in one place at a time, and needs some refit time between expenditures of Old World Equipment.

The rank and file might have this, but the leaders still need to keep everyone fed, armed, moving in generally the same direction, organize recruitment etc.

Guns and food and men dont rain from the sky. You have to organize their collection and distribution, otherwise your guns wont shoot and your men will starve. The moment they start to starve, your conscription army disintegrates around you. Yes, if we invaded Victorian territory right now, it would be just the kind of red meat to throw to the rank and file grunts to turn around and focus all of their attention on kicking us out.

But thats the thing, their leaders very specifically know the reality of their situation. They are in the know on who pulls the strings in Victoria and why even if they pretend it isnt the case at night.

If they focus all of their power on us, then the loyalists will plow into their rear lines and end them. They started a civil war against Blackwell as a traitor commie usurper. Or he started one against them. It doesn't matter, they are in a fight for their lives and the future of Victoria. We are just a bunch of vultures looking to steal what isnt ours. They have all the time in the world to show us Victorian Mettle. They do not have the time to hope that Blackwell will play nice and allow them to attack us without getting a few licks in.

And they know it, and we know they know it.
 
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