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So, who DOES have the character creation nuke? If we don't know that, I'm not entirely sure I want to assume the Vics don't.
 
The Victorians don't have the ammo to pull a Halifax though. They're headed directly towards our Navy, which at last mention was working with a bunch of Detroit's merchant marine to unload stuff from the Laker that grounded off of Leamington's shore. I shall generously assume that our Navy has since moved to the mouth of the Detroit River, as Leamington is some 30+km away from Detroit over land.
OK, to be fair, I am genuinely unsure of what to make of the situation if the Victorian freighters are headed specifically for our gunboats and clearly away from the entrance to the Detroit River. I'm not sure what's going on in that case because then everything has well and truly stopped making sense except in the context of "deliberate act of pointless martyrdom that they know is pointless.."

Except, admittedly, as bait for their remaining air force.

The Detroit River is ~4-5km across at it's mouth and ~20 km long. The Halifax Explosion was a result of 2500 tons of explosives going off, and did moderate damage to the Dartmouth waterfront 1km away from the blast. By the inverse square law, doing equivalent damage to the Detroit waterfront from the location of our navy would require approximately one million tons of explosives, or 7-8 fully loaded lakers. Even if you say Detroit hasn't shrunk at all in the collapse, the only waterfront remotely close to where those ships are going to be intercepted is the town of Gibraltar, which is ~5km from the mouth of the Detroit River. That'd actually be possible to damage with what those lakers can carry, only needing 60k tons of explosives, but it's still not a near empty load like they're carrying.

The Victorians could do a bunch of damage with their current load if they managed to sail close enough before blowing up yeah, but that would require not getting stopped in any way for the entire journey. The Halifax Explosion did a pile of damage because the ship blew up just on the final approach in/out of port, and the Victorians aren't going to get that close to pulling into Detroit unchallenged.
Let me clarify by way of analogy to similar circumstances.

Are you familiar with the Japanese super-battleship Yamato? Very large conventional battleship that, for one reason and another, never got the chance to fight a surface engagement during World War Two, AND never got sunk by American air power during the early and middle stages of the war.

In the last months of the war, with the US in the process of taking the Japanese island of Okinawa quite close to Japan's home islands, the Navy came up with a "show we're doing something to fight back" plan of "send the Yamato on a one-way mission to run aground on Okinawa and bombard American forces and generally fight until completely destroyed."

Now, they HAD to know that the likely realistic outcome was "US carrier air planes sink the Yamato long before it reaches Okinawa." And indeed that is exactly what happened. But the point was, they did indeed have a plan for causing considerable damage to the enemy IF, and this was admittedly a really big ask, bordering on ridiculous... IF they could actually get through to their destination.

I'm looking at this and seeing an echo of that attack. Something that is overwhelmingly likely to fail in a humiliating and depressing manner for Victoria, but that IF it succeeds, could actually conceivably do them some good.

Because if you've memorized Rumford's memoirs, you just know that no one ever actually stops your civilian freighters from sailing up to enemies in a war zone! Surely they'll get into range!

Now again, I don't consider it a realistic case that they'd actually get close enough to important targets like the Detroit docks and the Renaissance Bridge to blow them up. But I do believe that the Victorians wouldn't be doing this without some kind of plan that gives them a hope of actually hurting their enemies if suddenly their plot armor flickers back on.

I wonder if one of those boats has a nuke on it.
It would be a very iffy way to deliver a nuke, but it's not inconceivable if the Victorians have one.

True. But the thing is, they're heading directly for our navy, not for Detroit. So...
Honestly, I suspect there are some infantry on them, selected and commanded by CMC commissars for fanaticism, to keep the impressed sailors from just surrendering, and they're hoping to ram or something, but the main task is to make sure there is no retreat option for the regular army. "In death ground, fight."
I mean, if that was all they wanted to accomplish, the ships could just go home to Buffalo.

We don't know, but we can reasonably assume that if the Vics have it they'd have sneaked it in and blown up Detroit/Chicago without launching a giant invasion first.
Not necessarily.

Blowing up Detroit would have left the Detroit River a radioactive hellscape and made it a very bad place to sail through, making it harder and more dangerous for Victoria to threaten or influence affairs in the upper lakes (including around Chicago). Sneaking the nuke into Chicago would definitely be something they might be willing to try...

But remember, Rumford historically resorted to nuclear terrorism to get his way when his conventional forces couldn't figure out a plot-shielded plan to just waltz into a place and take it over. They fully expected Detroit to be conquered easily with the Commonwealth doing little or nothing to support them, I suspect (that's how it always worked before), and then for them to have plenty of time to plan a leisurely conquest of "the Reds." I don't think they have used the nuclear weapon as a first strike. Probably.
 
30 km behind the Raisin and 10km inland puts them outside the range of most mobile SAM systems we have available , and well outside lake MANPAD range.
Unless we're packing like PAC-2 Patriots, instead of MIM-23 Hawks as our battlefield SAM systems.
No no, the plan at that point would be to set up the SAM site between Toledo and Buffalo either mounting the missiles on ships or on the shore, and pot the zeppelins as they make the journey along the length of the lake. With a good-sized missile, we could probably do that. We couldn't do that in a hurry, but we could totally do that.

And, again, we do have three operational jet fighters that would make short work of a frickin' zeppelin. It would just be a matter of picking a time to intercept that minimizes the chance of the surviving Victorian planes in Toledo being able to intercept, or of any Victorian planes left behind in home territory being able to interfere.

The Victorians couldn't provide continuous air escort for zeppelins, because they're too slow; the planes would have to fly big circles and put a lot of hours and miles on their engines and airframes, enough to be a problem in their sabotaged state. Over time this would cause a lot of attrition to their air force even if we didn't fire a shot.

To avoid the problem without escorts they'd have to arc their zeppelins way way south of the lake, which is certainly possible for them but increases flight time, risk of something going wrong and having a zeppelin go down over "Indian Country," and decreases the amount of cargo per day they can deliver this way.

No, if the Viks do anything with their own air transport capability, it's going to be with fixed wing aircraft like DC-3s, that can at least theoretically be escorted. Even then there's a real chance we could set up an ambush location and start shooting down their 'air bridge' in real time.

I don't agree.

Sure it's canon. For good reason. It's easy enough to do on the defensive, when your supply is right there.
On the offensive, in an offensive war, their foraging asses don't have the lift. Not to move it from a supply depot to the front lines. Not can you set up roadside bombs when your enemy is retreating not advancing.
Dude they used multi-tens-of-thousands-of-ton freighters to haul their stuff to Toledo. They may not have had the lift to bring tons and tons of explosives with their field armies, but they damn sure had the lift to get it into the theater at all.

We have direct references to Victorians using vehicle-mounted IEDs to disrupt enemy lines ten or fifteen years ago, we know that kind of shit can be done because ISIS did it. You don't even need a suicide bomber in theory; you can put a brick on the gas pedal and dive out of the truck if you pick your target.

We also know that the Victorians have had a systematic policy of sabotaging concentrations of industrial assets and economic power in the rest of the country. This strongly suggests that they're pretty enthusiastic about their demolitions, because it's an obvious, 'logical' extension of that policy. Piss them off and they will physically level your town after shooting or driving off all the inhabitants- but levelling a town requires a lot of dynamite. Their punitive expeditions likely blow up a lot of infrastructure and factories- again, lots of dynamite. This is on top of the fact that their forces are probably liberally supplied with mortar ammunition because they have mortars down to the squad level. Even if they can't carry much mortar ammo in the field, if they're going to load up a ship capable of carrying tens of thousands of tons of cargo anyway, they might as well at least bring plenty of reloads. And mortar ammunition is a pretty good IED base anyway, because it has a lot of 'boom' and not a lot of metal wall.

...

Basically, unless we have spies who specifically read the cargo manifests of the Vik supply transports that brought all their stuff to the west end of Erie, I think we are being grossly overconfident if we assume that they "can't possibly" have brought a few thousand tons of explosive materials that could potentially be used or abused as demolitions.

I mean, the Vics are ideological, not stupid.
They aren't going to devote significant chunks of their limited supply capacity to carry stuff they can't use on the offensive.
Food. Munitions. Fuel. Sure.

Several hundred or thousand tons of free demo charges? I doubt it.
See above; I don't think demo charges are something the Victorians wouldn't use up large amounts of while launching a punitive expedition in "Indian Country." Plus, the main form of bulky munitions their infantry use would be rocket-propelled grenades and mortar bombs, both of which can easily be used to add bulk to a "go Halifax on them" strategy.

Lake Erie isn't that deep; even if we sink the damn things, we can show up with cranes and salvage most of the ship for it's steel.]
This is true, though it makes the salvage operation much more likely to be an AP-consuming project. Marine salvage in a shallow freshwater body like Lake Erie isn't necessarily hard relative to other forms of marine salvage, but it's a sizeable undertaking requiring specialized equipment like divers with metal-cutting equipment that works underwater.

@Simon_Jester
On reread:

They're unloaded. They're not going for Detroit, they're heading for the navy.
I need clarification on where our navy is before I draw conclusions from this.

The one other argument against the siege is that, well, the town is inhabited, right? it is going to be hell on the locals, and odds are the locals will suffer more and before the Vics.
We've had months to prepare and the area has been fought over for a couple of weeks now. I suspect that the vast majority of the civilian population has been reduced to refugee status fleeing one way or the other.

Going back to the lakers, could they be Q-ships? that is the sort of tactic the vics could go for
ALL Victorian fighting ships are Q-ships, from a certain point of view- they're civilian ships armed with whatever weapons are handy, and their main defense against anyone else's warships is the hope that they'll be mistaken for civilian traffic.

Unlikely, as Vic naval doctrine focuses on cheap and expendable boat technicals.

I think we should just sink the boats: the quality of their sailors is abhorrent and they might try to compensate for this by simply ramming the navy. It might also be a good idea to bring the air force back up. Even if there is only 4 they can make a difference, and they have ground attack training.
Ramming a small ship that doesn't want to be rammed and has working engines and cannons is a losing proposition. All they have to do is score a few hits on your bow near the waterline and you'll be taking in water at the bow fast enough to be badly slowed down and a looot less maneuverable.

Given they must know we looted the other ship, I can see them going "we will trap them this time because we know that the cultural Marxists are obsessed with looting and can set a ambush". It's that sort of trying to be clever plan that feels very.... Lind esque.
Now that you mention it, yes.

That said, having given it some thought. I think they may just be straight up warships conversions, no tricks, out to die gloriously. The navy has been nothing but humiliated this entire war, and if they don't want purging they might as well try to show something. This makes the choice a choice between "safely sink them" and "try to capture ships that are loaded with weapons and firing back". In which case I think the big ones might be worth it, but the little ones not so much.
Now that you mention it, also yes.

@PoptartProdigy , how do you feel about a write-in order like:

[] Capture the freighters if it appears possible to disable them without a threat to the overall safety of the fleet. Sink them if they put up too much of a fight to allow that, or if there is reason to think they are rigged as suicide bombs.

Spitballing, perhaps it's a team-up with the air-force? With the Toledo force moving up, those remaining jets are basically unprotected, I can actually see the Victorians planning to try to use them to die gloriously. Sail a naval force for us to respond to away from our lines. Then send in your jets to die gloriously like everything else. Heck, since the airforce has been failing at the bombing missions and want more political capital there, this might be their last chance, meanwhile the navy might have agreed to provide bait to they can show they did something and avoid more purging.
Also very very possible.

Our concentrated gunboat fleet has enough AA that I'm willing to risk them even in a sky that may turn cloudy with a chance of kamikazes, but it's definitely a threat to consider.
 
I mean, if that was all they wanted to accomplish, the ships could just go home to Buffalo.
Well, if Burns is right, they want the troops fighting to see that their only hope of escape is not just gone, but dead.

They are making way directly for the Navy.

The Victorian commanders appear to have decided to have us burn their ships for them. Morale shaken or not, their soldiers will understand now that there is no retreat for them.
-[ ] Sink them. They want smoke plumes on the horizon to signal their men, they can have them.
Not going to rule out suicide bombings, but we have pretty well proven that Buffalo isn't exactly the safest place either with our raid.

Might also be a bit of "The navy fought to the death! Will any of you prove yourselves cowards by comparison?"
 
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I mean, if that was all they wanted to accomplish, the ships could just go home to Buffalo.
But that would mean retreating. Which is Heresy!
More practically, it would mean that some people would get to go home to Victoria to spread word of what happened. And it's quite possible that the CMC got word that is not to be allowed.

[] Capture the freighters if it appears possible to disable them without a threat to the overall safety of the fleet. Sink them if they put up too much of a fight to allow that, or if there is reason to think they are rigged as suicide bombs.
I do like this, though.
 
Let me clarify by way of analogy to similar circumstances.
I should also be clear. I'm not arguing whether or not the Victorians are trying to blow up the harbor, I'm arguing that whether they are or not is irrelevant to whether we should try and capture their ships or sink them. Any interception will take place far enough out from any harbor that a suicidal detonation won't be doing additional damage on top of taking the nearest ships with them (regardless of whether its got extra explosives in it's hold or not), which would be at risk during a boarding operation anyways.

The decision we're faced with is purely whether we want to risk our navy to capture the Victorian boats or not, concerns about damage to harbors shouldn't play into that.
 
I should also be clear. I'm not arguing whether or not the Victorians are trying to blow up the harbor, I'm arguing that whether they are or not is irrelevant to whether we should try and capture their ships or sink them. Any interception will take place far enough out from any harbor that a suicidal detonation won't be doing additional damage on top of taking the nearest ships with them (regardless of whether its got extra explosives in it's hold or not), which would be at risk during a boarding operation anyways.

The decision we're faced with is purely whether we want to risk our navy to capture the Victorian boats or not, concerns about damage to harbors shouldn't play into that.
The thing is, if the Victorian ships are loaded down with enough explosives to be a credible threat to a harbor, the "outside the blast radius" distance for our gunboats is a lot larger than it would otherwise be. It's the difference between "stay 600 meters away" and "stay so far away you're effectively out of autocannon and heavy machine gun range of the ship."

So it does make some difference to the level of risk and precautions; a capture attempt is far more likely to cost us not just personnel but gunboats if the ships are loaded up as very large fireships than if they're merely loaded up with demo charges suitable for killing anyone who happens to be aboard and any watercraft pulled up directly alongside.

COMMENTS(as I see them)
1) We savaged the Victorian Erie merchant fleet during the Buffalo Raid, and then sank the replacements they pulled from downstream and the Atlantic coast to help move the fifty thousand men and supplies that made the eastern amphibious landing at Leamington.

Transport ships take time and effort and material to build, and it's been barely five weeks since hostilities began.There's good odds that there is no remaining Victorian merchant presence anywhere on the Great Lakes. Certainly not on Lake Erie.
That significantly reduces the chances of any repeat attempt at, say, supplying the division of troops on the Erie islands by water.

2) The Victorian army has been kind enough to self-select itself into two different groups.

Group 1 is the hardliners. Those guys who are victory or death, and the most difficult to convince to surrender. Many of them were in the CMC division, and got exterminated. Much of the remainder are currently charging our lines in company of the tank division. These guys we want to crush thoroughly, as an example to their compatriots.

Group 2 are the regular grunts that are entrenching themselves. The ones who aren't running to embrace death.
These guys it might be possible to induce to surrender, if not en masse, at least by company or platoon. They will require a lot of high explosive inducement, but it should be possible.

3)The current baseline for our troops is Quality 1/5.

For the vast majority of troops outside the Devil Brigade, this is their first experience with proper maneuver warfare against professional enemy troops instead of Illnois Nazi militias. These are our veterans, and will form the core of the miliary expansion we will need in the next two years in order to meet the Victorian rematch.

We need to give our veterans experience in executing land offensives, and fighting combined arms, so they can pass the lessons down. This is probably the most favorable conditions for it, with the enemy air grounded, enemy armor eliminated, and a massive artillery advantage on call.

We also want to give them experience with taking PoWs safely, and with minimum risk to themselves. And no atrocities.
This is the first war with Victoria. It won't be the last.
To the shores of Maine.


4)WoG indicates that the transport ships seem to be empty, given their speeds.
No improvised explosive payloads or shit, just a straightforward attempt to ram our ships. There is a small chance that there are significant numbers of Victorian soldiers onboard, but that's why we have autocannon and machineguns on our gunboats.

It's worth taking the chance to capture them, in order to turbocharge our trade and carrying capacity on the bigger lakes, or just getting several thousand tons of steel to melt down.

Plus, a reputation for taking surrenders will save us operational time and casualties down the road.
See the difference betweeen the Soviet and Western fronts during WW2.


5)The Vics originally set out from Toledo numbering seven divisions of roughly ten thousand men each.
5x infantry, 1x CMC mechanized, 1x tank. 70,000 men. Sans losses from naval shelling, slogging through the weather and attacks on their scouts.

We destroyed 1x CMC and three quarters of an infantry division at the Raisin Line. 5.25x divisions left.

1.25x divisions are currently charging the Huron Line fortifications. To buy time and die. 4x divisions left, all infantry.
They are being joined by 1x division from Toledo, bringing them up to 5x divisions, all infantry.
That's roughly 50,000 men, sans losses.

The Commonwealth has 3x infantry divisions, each roughly numbering 15,000 men.
That brings our current deployed Commonwealth force to 45,000 men, sans combat losses.
The Detroit Militia is also roughly the size of an infantry division, sans losses, but cant be deployed beyond Detroit's environs.

So we have 60,000 men on the defense, but 45,000 men on the offense.

6)The Toledo force will meetup with the Raisin force before we get there, even if we go for full assault.
Since there's no real chance of catching them divided, there's no need to hurry too much.
That said, we don't want to dally too much.

While the Victorian General Staff back in Victoria are undoubtedly currently running around with their hair on fire, given time they will start making plans. We want this entire field army dead or in captivity before then, or before the Russians attempt to intervene.

7)There's twenty operational aircraft and maintenance spares in Toledo. Maybe more deadlined due to sabotage.
If we're really lucky, the Vics handed all the pilots rifles and sent them to the front.
Even if we aren't, there's hope to grab off aircraft spares for our own F16s.

The quicker we wrap up the infantry, the more likely we get to grab off aircraft and spare parts before Vic High Command order them to fly home.
1) You are conflating the Victorian merchant fleet and the Victorian "navy," which is admittedly "the part of the Victorian merchant fleet that someone crudely bolted guns on," so it's understandable. We did very heavy damage to their armed ships as you describe, but that's not the same as doing comparable damage to their merchant fleet as a whole. We do NOT have a good estimate of how many unarmed cargo ships the Victorians have left to draft for various operations.

2) You're basically right about this, except that it bears remembering that there could well be fanatics in the 'stay-behind' force and regular Joes in the 'go-ahead' force. The destruction of the CMC division may well have resulted in disruption of the Victorian army's chain of command, possibly causing different division commanders and other unit leaders to break one way or the other, while more or less forcing their fellows to go along with the plan. Thus, the Savior Division's commander says "Time to live up to our name by pushing back the Reds long enough for our boys to dig in and wait for support of some kind or at least make a glorious last stand," but that doesn't mean every individual guy driving a Victorian tank is that much more fanatical than the guys digging in south of the Raisin. The split of the Victorian army is at the unit level, not the individual level, which bears remembering.

3) I agree with this logic.

4) I'd very much like to capture those ships, though I... flatly refuse to accept... the statement "they can't possibly be loaded enough to be a large scale explosive threat" when we'd be talking about piling a couple of thousand tons of explosives into a ship that is designed to carry tens of thousands of tons. It would, again, be a lot like trying to gauge how much load a horse is carrying to the nearest five pounds or something. It's not inconceivable that you could do so, but you'd need very minute observation and very detailed knowledge of the horse's physique and gait and so on.

5 through 7) OK sure.

Students of WW2 will recognize the name of the plan. The parallels are pretty stark.
It's 1943 in America. Let the fascists tremble.

[] Plan Uranus
-[DEFENSE] Defend with all committable forces. Bring up all of your troops and all of the Detroit Militia. You don't just want to win this one; you want to utterly smash this assault and enjoy numerical superiority for a change. Afterwards, you can wipe them out easily. With this force, you won't even hypothetically need the Big Red One. Estimated two days to total force destruction. The BRO will not in any case be needed.
-[OFFENSE] Limited assault. Don't try to smash them outright, but you cannot countenance just letting them be. Begin launching probing attacks across a wide area. Force them to spread their forces and strain their logistics. Wear down their supplies and weaken them for the final clash. Does not use a charge of OWE. Certainty of limited casualties. Possibility of moderate casualties. Five days to prepare and begin offensive operations. Slower resolution, likely several weeks.
-[TRANSPORTS] Capture them. Hey, if Victoria doesn't want the tonnage, you can see some use in them.
-[NAVY] Full bombardment. The Navy will commit to intense shore bombardment of Victorian positions, trying to destroy as many troops and materiel as they possibly can to burn through the Victorians supplies and manpower.

@uju32 , I like your basic plan, but in particular would like to consider adding a caveat "sink the freighters rather than capture if they seem to pose a threat to the survival of the fleet," and also I would like to consider 'scouting' over 'bombardment' for the Navy. If we can find a way to land a force behind the Victorians, we may be able to burn or capture a lot of their supplies and rear area facilities like hospitals or headquarters, while those facilities are poorly defended.

This may also be the best way to de facto flip Toledo to our side.
 
I doubt Russians can send intervention force all the way from Russia to Midwest. Logistics are a bitch.

I don't think we can expect a recreation of Lind's spectacular writing to occur and have something absurd like the Germans sinking entire Russian naval convoys or the like, to absolutely no repercussions?

No, I didn't think so either.
 
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I enjoy the idea of landing a force behind the Vicks to take Toledo, but I am somewhat skeptical that we'd be able to pull it off. I shall await the GM's ruling on the matter.
 
OK, what about a write-in like:

[] Ongoing harassment and probing attacks to force the Victorians to exhaust their supplies, followed by a decisive attack supported by Old World Equipment after they are deemed to be sufficiently weakened

Would that do, and could that be done with a single charge of Old World Equipment?
That works.
@PoptartProdigy

If we do anything except a Full assault. I'd like to include

-[ ] Propaganda broadcasts: Broadcast promises of good treatment for surrender, and emphasis the CMC's death.

Get every speaker and mega phone we can find and bombard them. Promise good treatment for those who surrender. Bring in co-operative prisoners to speak of good treatment. Offer to send them home if they want. Emphasis their helplessness. Make up stories about other members of the Southern force who surrendered to make it not feel unusual, if some actually do, use those.

Best case, we actually get some surrender. Worse case, we ratchet up tension, force them to commit troops whereever we are broadcasting (cause we have troops there) if we are bothering to broadcast.
Below level of abstraction, but noted.
@PoptartProdigy

How large are these freighters?

Are the two 'laker' ships large like the one we just boarded, with a cargo capacity of several tens of thousands of tons?

EDIT:

To be clear, I don't mean "literally the exact same size as the one we just boarded," I just mean "large" in the sense that "this pickup truck is large like this other pickup truck" and "this little red toy wagon is not large like a pickup truck is large." Very rough, vague estimation purposes.
The two big lakers are right and proper lakers. 1000-footers, just like the Niagara. While Victoria does have the capacity to build those things, said capacity is a single shipyard in Buffalo that can custom-build them once every seven years.

The four smaller vessels are more typical Victorian make. They can carry about 9,000 long tons of cargo, and are the mainstay of Victoria's commercial waterway shipping. Until Burns started purging the Vick spies, these ships were regular sights even in Chicago. Your navy knows them extremely well. Thus, you are absolutely certain that these ones are running empty or close to. While you are correct that you can make no such reliable estimation for the lakers, it would be very odd to leave the smaller ships utterly toothless while stacking the lakers to blow. Perhaps a trap to sucker you in? It would put a lot of weight on you exhibiting enough paranoia to check the smaller ships, but not enough to suspect the ruse, though.
I need clarification on where our navy is before I draw conclusions from this.
Providing security at the grounded laker. They're pretty ready to call it secure and do other things, though. The laker itself is offshore west and south of Leamington a short ways.

The cargo vessels are currently approaching your navy; even if they were not, you know that the Victorians have surface-search radar. They cannot possibly believe that they can make a run on Detroit to re-enact Halifax. Not with your navy out with steam raised.
@PoptartProdigy , how do you feel about a write-in order like:

[] Capture the freighters if it appears possible to disable them without a threat to the overall safety of the fleet. Sink them if they put up too much of a fight to allow that, or if there is reason to think they are rigged as suicide bombs.
Yeah, sure.
 
One minute while I get around to some answers.
The thing is, if the Victorian ships are loaded down with enough explosives to be a credible threat to a harbor,
WoG, by way of our IC naval experts, is that they aren't.
Either we believe our intel, or we don't.

1) You are conflating the Victorian merchant fleet and the Victorian "navy,"
I forgot that we chose to shell the airbase at Buffalo instead of sinking the merchant fleet. .
But we shot up the merchant fleet at Leamington:
But the ships are all intact, and their opposition is not.
Now guns speak in anger against the transports bearing valuable supplies and hardware for the Victorian troops ashore; now those ships begin sinking, instantly. Now the transports are all dead -- unarmed and unarmored merchant vessels, loaded up with soldiers who hardly know how to make them go forward, facing proper warships.
Consider how many ships it takes to carry fifty thousand men and their heavy equipment and supplies for two weeks of heavy fighting goes well into the tens of thousands of tons.

Given as lakers of this size are effectivelyy lostech for the Great Lakes region, even the Vics would not risk them in a combat theater if they had any alternatives, as compared to more replaceable modern ships.
Note that they were not used during the initial amphibious landing at Leamington despite their cargo capacity.

It was only when they were desperate, with presumably no other alternatives, that they sent them out.

The split of the Victorian army is at the unit level, not the individual level, which bears remembering.
Yes.

But if my reading serves me right, organizations acquire their own ethos with time. Especially in the military, where peer pressure is often coercively enforced. We have two divisions, or at least one tank division and the remnant of an infantry division, coming straight at the Huron Line. The choice of which forces to send is likely influenced by their organizational rep and ethos.

That's what we have to break.
Then they stop behaving like a self-reinforcing mob and more like individual humans.

4) I'd very much like to capture those ships, though I... flatly refuse to accept... the statement "they can't possibly be loaded enough to be a large scale explosive threat"
It's a civilian cargo ship.

Those are built for efficiency, not power; they don't have spare reserves of power.
If the GM via the mouthpiece of local experts says the ships are moving too fast to be carrying any cargo, I am willing to take them at their word.

@uju32 , I like your basic plan, but in particular would like to consider adding a caveat "sink the freighters rather than capture if they seem to pose a threat to the survival of the fleet," and also I would like to consider 'scouting' over 'bombardment' for the Navy. If we can find a way to land a force behind the Victorians, we may be able to burn or capture a lot of their supplies and rear area facilities like hospitals or headquarters, while those facilities are poorly defended.
This may also be the best way to de facto flip Toledo to our side.
-I have no objections, I just think it's unnecessary.
And there are actually serious questions about why we shouldn't risk naval losses in order to acquire industrial bonuses like that fleet they're throwing at us.

-Scouting passes up the opportunity to stack artillery maluses on the entrenched Vics.
While I'm tempted to Incheon them, we lack the firepower and equipment(and manpower) to pull it off properly.
And this is part of the point of the exercise, building naval-army experience in combined arms.

Plus, we have surface radar coverage of much of Lake Erie, past Leamington.
That's how we saw the first laker supply attempt.
 
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Actually, I think I remember WoG saying the Nuke is NOT in Victorian hands, given our boys had a gunfight with some Vicks once they finished following the trail of breadcrumbs, National Treasure style, only for both parties to discover some other third group had gotten there first.

EDIT: Also, before I forget. What does our Naval Transport look like, and how fast could the Vicks on the Monroe Line turn around and sprint back to Toledo? We know they have surface radar, so if we attempt a landing at Toledo they WILL see it coming... But the idea of being able to encircle the people who fetishize their ability to encircle their foes is just tantalizing to me.
 
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See? SEE!?

Remember, everybody, sooner or later we're going to run out of flamingly idiotic opposition. It's bound to happen. We need to be ready.

I enjoy the idea of landing a force behind the Vicks to take Toledo, but I am somewhat skeptical that we'd be able to pull it off. I shall await the GM's ruling on the matter.
I think it justifies using our fleet to scout out the coastline and see if the thing can be accomplished. If it could, it opens up a lot of possibilities for closing the ring on the Victorians, especially with the remainder of their heavy armor lost by the Huron River.

That works.

Below level of abstraction, but noted.

The two big lakers are right and proper lakers. 1000-footers, just like the Niagara. While Victoria does have the capacity to build those things, said capacity is a single shipyard in Buffalo that can custom-build them once every seven years.
Aha.

Well, as noted, such ships are much much much less useful to the Victorians if they can't take control of Detroit, so I suspect they are in some very real ways more expendable than the smaller freighters. The smaller ones aren't such total white elephants, since they can transit the Welland Canal and have more flexible port arrangements.

I still suspect that we're looking at pre-Collapse lakers renamed in Victorian service, with the question being 'which ones?' :p

The four smaller vessels are more typical Victorian make. They can carry about 9,000 long tons of cargo, and are the mainstay of Victoria's commercial waterway shipping. Until Burns started purging the Vick spies, these ships were regular sights even in Chicago. Your navy knows them extremely well. Thus, you are absolutely certain that these ones are running empty or close to. While you are correct that you can make no such reliable estimation for the lakers, it would be very odd to leave the smaller ships utterly toothless while stacking the lakers to blow. Perhaps a trap to sucker you in? It would put a lot of weight on you exhibiting enough paranoia to check the smaller ships, but not enough to suspect the ruse, though.
Hypothetical, putting myself in the chair of the Victorian admiral/general:

Put a bunch of armament on the smaller freighters, but no more than, oh, 450-900 tons total, enough that the cargo loading is negligible as a fraction of their capacity. These are escorts intended to delay and tie up any Chicagolander gunboats trying to board the lakers. The lakers are themselves pretty close to a Des Plaines in top speed, to the point where it wouldn't take much interference with the gunboats' interception to allow the lakers to turn the whole affair into a stern chase- famously, a long chase, and one that might give the lakers a chance to slip past.

The lakers can be loaded with as much weaponry and explosives as any sane-ish person could want without appreciably scratching their maximum tonnage capacity, given that they were originally designed for loads of seventy or so thousand tons of rocks.

Providing security at the grounded laker. They're pretty ready to call it secure and do other things, though. The laker itself is offshore west and south of Leamington a short ways.

The cargo vessels are currently approaching your navy; even if they were not, you know that the Victorians have surface-search radar. They cannot possibly believe that they can make a run on Detroit to re-enact Halifax. Not with your navy out with steam raised.
OK, so our gunboats aren't directly between the mouth of the Detroit River and the oncoming ships, but they're not that far away from the line.

This is partial evidence in favor of this not being an attack of the type I'm worried about. If they were trying for that, they'd presumably be trying to 'bull past' our gunboat fleet, with the light freighters positioned a few miles to starboard of the lakers, where they could temporarily screen against the gunboats' attempt to intercept.

One minute while I get around to some answers.
WoG, by way of our IC naval experts, is that they aren't.
Either we believe our intel, or we don't.
If our radar operators and captains are telling me that a ship with a cargo capacity of seventy thousand tons is clearly not carrying one or two thousand tons of explosives because it's moving too fast to be that "heavily loaded," I'm honestly sorry, but I consider "unreliable narrator, our officers crit-failed a basic competence check" a more plausible hypothesis than "those freighters are significantly slower with 2000 tons of dynamite on board than with 0 tons of dynamite on board.

I'm not saying that those ships ARE necessarily giant bomb/fireships, but I refuse to dismiss the possibility under these conditions for the stated reasons.

I forgot that we chose to shell the airbase at Buffalo instead of sinking the merchant fleet. .
But we shot up the merchant fleet at Leamington:

Consider how many ships it takes to carry fifty thousand men and their heavy equipment and supplies for two weeks of heavy fighting goes well into the tens of thousands of tons.
It takes quite a few ships, but the Victorians could easily have made multiple trips with a merchant fleet totalling something like 300 to 400 thousand tons of cargo per trip, in terms of what they moved from Buffalo to Toledo or the lake islands before the Battle of Leamington even took place.

Given as lakers of this size are effectivelyy lostech for the Great Lakes region, even the Vics would not risk them in a combat theater if they had any alternatives, as compared to more replaceable modern ships.
Note my earlier remarks. These ships are useful if and only if the Victorians succeed in taking Detroit. They're too big to leave Lake Erie by the east end, so with the west end closed and hostile to them, they become white elephants for most practical purposes. It would be fairly reasonable for the Victorians to have been very conservative about risking them before the Battle of Leamington (when they thought success was assured), but very liberal about risking them afterwards (when it started becoming mission-critical to move very large masses of supplies around in a hurry, lest the entire campaign become a failure).

Note that they were not used during the initial amphibious landing at Leamington despite their cargo capacity.
Their ability to self-unload cargo quickly would be pretty limited for anything more complicated than dumping loads of crushed rock over the side with their onboard cranes. They needed to capture a BIG port before they could unload the lakers.

It's a civilian cargo ship.

Those are built for efficiency, not power; they don't have spare reserves of power.
If the GM via the mouthpiece of local experts says the ships are moving too fast to be carrying any cargo, I am willing to take them at their word.
Oh, I believe they're not fully loaded. Nor even half loaded. Nor even quarter loaded.

But 10% of the cargo capacity of a large laker is about 7000 or 7500 tons. 5% is 3500 to 3750 tons. Even that small a fraction of their cargo capacity would be enough for a Halifax-tier explosion.

And it's very hard for me to believe that we can tell the difference between the ship being 0% loaded, 5% loaded, and 10% loaded, just by looking at how fast it's moving on the radar without even directly observing the ship from the outside.

I'm therefore highly reluctant to completely dismiss that particular possibility.

-I have no objections, I just think it's unnecessary.
And there are actually serious questions about why we shouldn't risk naval losses in order to acquire industrial bonuses like that fleet they're throwing at us.
The only real answer to that question is that the campaign isn't over and we'll have need of those gunboats tomorrow. Losing three or four gunboats, let alone the whole fleet, would still be a significant handicap to us, no matter how valuable the prize we obtained in return.

-Scouting passes up the opportunity to stack artillery maluses on the entrenched Vics.
While I'm tempted to Incheon them, we lack the firepower and equipment(and manpower) to pull it off properly.
And this is part of the point of the exercise, building naval-army experience in combined arms.
I think we actually HAVE that kind of experience; canonically the Chicago Navy spent quite a bit of time providing fire support for the Chicago Militia in the past.

It wasn't exactly a sneaky nuke. It was a big nuke, and they wouldn't have been eager to use it if they didn't need to.
It's "big" in the sense of "weighs a ton and is twelve feet long." Too big to conceal conveniently in, say, a minivan, but not too big to conceal in a ship or even a cargo container.

The good reason for them not to use that particular nuclear weapon on Detroit if they had it is because they want to go THROUGH Detroit to go to points west of it, and they'd be blowing up the bomb in the river itself, where it would create a massive, intensely radioactive crater lake right where their ships would need to pass through, along with wrecking irradiating the area they'd most want to use for basing their ships.

Actually, I think I remember WoG saying the Nuke is NOT in Victorian hands, given our boys had a gunfight with some Vicks once they finished following the trail of breadcrumbs, National Treasure style, only for both parties to discover some other third group had gotten there first.
I believe this to be the case also, yes.

But if we wanted to prepare for Victorian nuclear terrorism, which IS in their playbook on the rare occasions when they get their hands on a nuclear weapon... Well, everything I said to @Lailoken still applies.
 
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No no, the plan at that point would be to set up the SAM site between Toledo and Buffalo either mounting the missiles on ships or on the shore, and pot the zeppelins as they make the journey along the length of the lak
-Nothing stops them taking a dogleg inland to stay well out of lake-based SAM coverage. And that even assumes they are staging out of Buffalo, instead of an inland airbase like Rochester or Syracuse.
A Hindenburg-class had a range of 16000km. They have the range. F16s do not.

Crazy ideological not stupid.

-DC3s have a cargo capacity of 2 tons, a top speed of 370kmhr and a cruise speed of 333kmhr.
A Hindenburg zeppelin can carry 10 tons at a top speed of 131kmhr and a range of 16,500km at 85km per hr.
The F16 can't escort either; it's minimum safe speed is 180knots/333 kmhr.

What they'd actually do is simply fly CAP over the drop site. Close to Toledo and they can do it in shifts.
Especially with radio giving them warning of expected airship arrival times.

-Do recall that the Vics sent their flagship, the sailing ship Hornblower, to Lake Erie as part of preparations for this campaign.
A sailing ship. Into a lake with an enemy force of steamers.
Not stupid. But crazy.
And, again, we do have three operational jet fighters that would make short work of a frickin' zeppelin.
They have aircraft at Toledo, which is much closer to the Raisin Line than Detroit or Chicago.
And generous handcarried SAM assets. Vics are mad about Stingers and Iglas, after all, as it fits their national philosophy of the importance of the individual will.

Attempting to overfly four Victorian divisions with three jet aircraft in order to attack zeppelins in the rear area strikes me as an elaborate attempt at suicide.

Dude they used multi-tens-of-thousands-of-ton freighters to haul their stuff to Toledo.
-They needed all that shipping capacity. They were deploying a motorized army of one hundred and forty thousand men and two hundred and thirty plus aircraft, over a hundred of them supersonic jets, to go fight a war 400km away from friendly lines. Just the daily fuel consumption for a force that big is....significant.

Victoria's sketchy logistics was always going to be stretched to the limit in building up the forward stockpile to supply this army without Russian help. Especially in a poorer America.
When I said they wouldn't have the spare capacity to fuck around with demo charges, I stand by it.

- Yes it's doctrine.
In the US, when there were way more motor vehicles to requisition from the orks, as they call their fellow Americans.
The Collapse has been on for forty years. Motor vehicles are no longer as common as they used to be.
Note how there's no comment about IED use when they play sepoy in North Africa, outside home territory.

- Fire. That's how historically destroying enemy settlements has been prosecuted.
Does not require tons of explosives, just a couple gallons of gasoline and whatever heating oil the natives happen to use. The Vics are explicitly fond of Molotov cocktails in that role, and kitchen napalm is fairly easy to simple with common supplies.

See above; I don't think demo charges are something the Victorians wouldn't use up large amounts of while launching a punitive expedition in "Indian Country." Plus, the main form of bulky munitions their infantry use would be rocket-propelled grenades and mortar bombs, both of which can easily be used to add bulk to a "go Halifax on them" strategy.
We'll have to disagree on this.

If they have all those munitions, they'd load up the ships and beach them near the mouth of the Raisin so that their soldiers could use it to fortify. In a position where lavish use of IEDs would give them a defensive advantage, and lavish mortar munitions would allow them to contest Commonwealth artillery at close range.

They wouldn't throw it at 11 gunboats armed with 105mm howitzers and 20mm cannon.
They saw the results of the Buffalo Raid, and the Leamington battle. They know very well what our weapons can do to loaded ships, and in how short a time. Crazy, not stupid.

-Halifax was a result of the ignition of twenty three hundred tons of raw explosive compounds, not munitions.
Ammunition contains a lot less explosive by weight than that.

For example, a 120mm mortar bomb weighs about 16kg, but has roughly 1.4kg of explosive filler, less than 10 % by weight.
You'd need around twenty thousand tons of mortar ammunition to approximate Halifax, and thousands of tons to even come close.

The Vics still have sixty-some thousand men in the field between Monroe and Toledo.
They can find use for any supplies.
Not throwing it away on fireships. It's not like the performance of their navy in this war has engendered any confidence.
 
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Alternatively, they filled the ships with hostages and are going to dare the Navy to shoot them or let them pass.
Also possible.
But I don't see why they'd expect Devil Burns to care about hostages from Toledo.
THEIR ally.

I mean, we know our people would care, but they have villified the other side for so long that I'm not sure they can make that sort of assessment. And I doubt the Vics would make major military decisions based on our capacity for compassion.
 
Also possible.
But I don't see why they'd expect Devil Burns to care about hostages from Toledo.
THEIR ally.

I mean, we know our people would care, but they have villified the other side for so long that I'm not sure they can make that sort of assessment. And I doubt the Vics would make major military decisions based on our capacity for compassion.

I thought these boats were coming from the islands? The ones with a fresh division which could be repositioned?

The Victorians literally tied captured enemy pilots to their vital infrastructure to prevent it from being bombed. If nothing else, they get the chance to make propaganda out of the evil commonwealth sinking "unarmed rescue vessels transporting neutral civilian refugees".
 
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