Here, our talent is 6, Stones would be 160 (16 yellow stones x 10), and resources would be 20 dice (high). Assuming that the Silverblood pill works like a special resource that effects everything, that is another +10.
You
almost got it right.
Yellow stones add 5 dice each for the first four, and 10 dice for each stone after the first four. So stones actually add 140 dice, not 160; divided by 4 that's 35 instead of 40.
On the other side, you missed the six resource dice we get for Stealth Ranks, so the numbers work out to just about the same. I usually forget about this bonus myself.
Furthermore, we don't multiply dice by the multiplier, we multiply
successes by the multiplier. As we can only guesstimate successes, we use the .55 average successes per dice rolled, because on
average we'll get 55 successes per 100 dice (with the bonus successes from rolling 1's included).
So we end up with 308 dice, *.55 (average successes per die) * multiplier:
AG: 308 * .55 = 169.4 * 1.7 = 287 * .1 =~ 28
AS: 308 * .55 = 169.4 * 2.2 = 372 * .1 =~ 37
AC: 308 * .55 = 169.4 * 2.15 = 364 * .1 =~ 36
28 + 37 + 36 = 99.
As far as the straight
math is concerned it doesn't matter, it's all multiplication anyway. As far as the
actual results are concerned, it matters a great deal, because our actual successes can vary a great deal. The sheer number of dice we're rolling tends to minimize the overall effects of randomness.
Also what
@Arkeus just said.
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Maxed out Green Stones at Green Two for Argent Genesis, four AP (curiosity's sake):
[6 + (4*5 + 4*10 + 4*40 + 4*80)/4 + 20 (High resources) + 10 (Silverblood) + 6 (Stealth bonus)] * 4 = 6 + 135 + 36 = 177 * 4 = 708
708 * .55 = 398.4 * 1.7 = 661* .1 =~ 66
Argent Pulse, Expected: 708 * .55 * 1.9 (.7 (location) + .1 (Imperial 8) + .1 [Heart/Lung]) * .1 = 398.4 * 1.9 * .1 = 756.96 * .1 =~ 75.
Spiritual at Green Two, one AP:
6 + 135 + 20 (High Resources) + 20 (EPC bonus*) + 15 (Argent Vent) + 6 (Larceny) = 202 * .55 = 111.1 * 1.2 =~ 133
Physical at Green Two, one AP:
6 + 135 + 20 + 15 + 15 + 6 = 197 * .55 = 108.35 * 1.2 = 130
Maxed out GSS at Green Two will typically provide twice as many successes as YSS, and four AP on an Argent Art with a Silverblood Pill is about half an AP to both Spiritual and Physical.
*: If it doesn't change with EPC hitting 6.
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Expected Spiritual Cultivation Successes, First Month:
6 + 35 + 20 (High Resources) + 20 (EPC bonus) + 15 (Argent Vent) + 6 (Stealth) = 102 * 4 (AP) = 408 * .55 = 224.4 * 1.2 (Way) = 269.28.
Should bring us to 946/1200, or roughly four AP away.
Even if every die succeeds, that's 408 * 1.2 = 495.6; an extra 226 successes, for 1,172/1200. We simply can't throw enough dice at the problem to succeed this turn.
Physical:
6 + 35 + 20 + 15 + 15 + 6 = 97 * 4 = 388 * .55 = 213.4 * 1.2 =~ 256 + 61 = 317/1200; ~3.44 turns away, or fourteen AP with YSS - another turn of that is 573/1200 - 627 away - roughly five AP away at Green Two on GSS.
So if the numbers average out appropriately, we should hit Green Two next turn (Month 2), and Bronze Two two turns after that (Month 4).
