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Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
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[X] Safely Do More
-[X]Expand Hamlet Administration
-[X] Settlement Walls

We are gonna need the increase in defenses (+50, and has Double Building benefits if manned) given the upcoming absence of most of the defenders due to the Wedding.
This is urgent, much more than getting the 5% increase in the chance of gaining cultivator Manpower.
 
Erebeal said:
something that benefits from being done a turn earlier.
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The fact that there's an extra 27.5% chance of a negative event in the first month far dominates.

Columns are: month number, chance of an event if SS first, chance of an event if SW first, cumulative difference in event chance.
Code: 
1 50.0% 22.5% 27.5%
2 18.1% 19.1% 26.4%
3 15.4% 16.3% 25.5%
4 13.1% 13.8% 24.8%
5 11.1% 11.7% 24.1%
6 9.4% 10.0% 23.6%
7 8.0% 8.5% 23.1%
8 6.8% 7.2% 22.7%
9 5.8% 6.1% 22.3%
10 4.9% 5.2% 22.1%
11 4.2% 4.4% 21.8%
12 3.6% 3.8% 21.6%
13 3.0% 3.2% 21.4%
14 2.6% 2.7% 21.3%
15 2.2% 2.3% 21.1%
16 1.9% 2.0% 21.0%
17 1.6% 1.7% 20.9%
18 1.3% 1.4% 20.9%
19 1.1% 1.2% 20.8%
20 1.0% 1.0% 20.7%
21 0.8% 0.9% 20.7%
22 0.7% 0.7% 20.7%
23 0.6% 0.6% 20.6%
24 0.5% 0.5% 20.6%

Python: 
#!/usr/bin/env python3

def event_chance_ss_first(month):
    if month == 1:
        # having cultivators is useless without a wall
        return 0.50
    no_passive_defense = 0.25
    no_cult = 0.85 ** month
    return no_passive_defense * no_cult


def event_chance_sw_first(month):
    no_passive_defense = 0.25
    no_cult = 0.9 * 0.85 ** (month - 1)
    return no_passive_defense * no_cult


def percent(num):
    return str(round(num * 100, 1)) + '%'

def main():
    cum_diff = 0
    for mon in range(1, 25):
        ss = event_chance_ss_first(mon)
        sw = event_chance_sw_first(mon)
        cum_diff += ss - sw
        print(mon, percent(ss), percent(sw), percent(cum_diff))


if __name__ == '__main__':
    main()
 
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o11c said:
Columns are: month number, chance of an event if SS first, chance of an event if SW first, cumulative difference in event chance.
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it seems that safety is greatly increasing in later months with both plans. have you made sure to account for the cap on cultivator manpower?

anyway, there is one factor you miss there- we have a deadline. by the war arc, we need to have both cultivator pop and walls. we can control walls, we can't control cultivator pop. so lowering the risk to be stuck without a cultivator pop is likely to offset a 27% increase in the chance for a minor incident
 
Erebeal said:
extra security will be swinging by to cover things while we're gone
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Plugging in various numbers ... in order for that to make a difference, it must be:
  • at least 44% DEF for 1 month
  • at least 45% DEF for 2 months
  • at least 46% DEF for 3 months
  • at least 46% DEF for 4 months (barely; 47% to be notable)
  • at least 47% DEF for 5 months (barely; 48% to be notable)
  • at least 48% DEF for 6 months
(but even then we're talking single-digit percentages)

Blademaster said:
it seems that safety is greatly increasing in later months with both plans. have you made sure to account for the cap on cultivator manpower?
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The cap is irrelevant since we only need 1 C to boost the walls. All that part of the script does is say "what is the chance we won't get a C at all by the given month?"
 
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Alright since I've not provided clear information on this the defense assistance covering you in the wedding Month will be a +35 Modifier. Zhengui will be staying here, so his bonus will remain in place all the human cultivators are coming with.

I will say that the negative events are not fief destroying, they can do damage and may require investment to fix but you aren't going to come back to find the whole place burnt down even on the worst roll possible.
 
Adhoc vote count started by Frost5 on Jun 20, 2024 at 8:48 PM, finished with 115 posts and 63 votes.
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With the proper groupings.
Adhoc vote count started by Elsecaller on Jun 20, 2024 at 8:59 PM, finished with 116 posts and 63 votes.
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If we put the walls off until next month, will we still be in Shenglu or on our way to the wedding? Apparently, the risk of not building the wall this turn leaves a 10% chance of a non catastrophic bad event happening to our people while we're away. This is out of character for Ling Qi to not do everything in her power to protect her family, I don't know how it would come across in the story.

On the other hand, building the wall doesn't need us at all, but we do want to be there when the shrine is built, and it needs to be done soon. In addition to raising the likely hood of getting a cultivator to join us, we'd get a more interesting narrative for the story.

I think I've talked myself into changing my vote. (Which dooms it immediately, as I always seem to vote for the losing option.) I do think the wall makes a ton of sense still and won't be upset when it wins.

[X] Snowblossom with glasses
 
[X] Safely Do More

I don't take chances with the stuff I really care about....
And if something happens sure it won't be complete destruction, but why risk damage at all?
 
[X] Snowblossom with glasses

If we can do the wall remotely but not the other thing... though I have some severe doubts about votes coming in for the wall next round.
 
[X] Snowblossom with glasses

Yeah a 10% risk is a reasonable gamble here, and like people have said we can just order the wall construction done remotely if need be while the shrine has harder impact if we're still in the fief when we build it up more.
 
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We should have taken the walls way sooner. It is out of character to leave the protection of our people up to chance for so long.
The consequence of this is that now we have to choose between leaving our people vulnerable, or having the snowblossom shrine done off screen.

Personally, I care more about the walls than the shrine here.

[ ] Safely Do More

However, what if we don't need to make a choice between shrine and walls?
That's why, I present to you readers...

[X] Whoops all defense
-[X] Settlement Walls
-[X] Snowblossom Shrine

The consequence of this choice is that we have 1 less choice next turn. Yes, this will have impact on our production, but it is not catastrophic.
On the other hand, we remove any chance of a negative event hitting us while away and increase the cultivator chance we get.

Frankly, I see the admin as the greedy choice, however, we cannot take that choice because we instead chose to ignore any and all defensive options for so long.
 
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