Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

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Hrrm.

So as I understand it, it's down to this: Basically, barring a peer specced to ruin our day with a SUPER BANG ATTACK, chances are the main way things go wrong is that the enemy rolls us with Aces that we can't actually fight, in which case our choices kind of don't matter that much.

Now, the thing these Cloud dudes are known for is mobility, but we can match that mobility, I think?

There IS a concern about if we go defensive they can go 'on to the next point boys!' and bail out and hit elsewhere. Thing is, didn't we leave our Xan Wu behind to gaurd another villiage? Given that we went THAT route then, I think we should double-down on that, and plant ourself here, and if they try running on to the next location aka where our turtleboi is waiting? They run into ANOTHER stall and lose even more time. Especially if they're 'bailing' by basically bypassing this base we're at to dive deeper into our territory and hoping they can dodge us again on the way out. Which uhh, if we have the mobility to catch them we will utterly ruin their day courtesy of having to fight Ling Qi with reduced Qi reserves and whatever injuries they got in diving deeper.

But that only works if I understand the directions and moves on the map properly.
The difference is between do we feel capable of blitzing them hard enough to win the fight without them being able to get away before being taken out, either literally or morale wise, or do we feel capable of assaulting anyone that tries to get away or attack the village long enough for our allies to wheel around and join us for the big push.

The fail state of blitzing isn't getting taken out if we are going to get jumped then we are and there's nothing we can do about it. The concern is the barbarians bogging us down enough to be able either accomplish their objective here, scatter and regroup elsewhere, or being ganged upon by the various greens in attendance. This isn't accounting for the a really bad scenario of the other noble green getting shit on hard enough by the barbarians he's engaged with to be taken out of the fight entirely leaving us down a green and them up one.

If we go "defensive" we will be attacking them from as many angles as possible to keep them from getting away, and anyone that does is hopefully someone we know can be more easily handled by the other garrisons. Letting a red through to stop a yellow is definitely worth it, because Reds are something the regular militia is designed and trained to handle.

So a few things here, in order raised:
  • Siegebreaker is something that we can reasonably guess requires a lengthy ritual setup, and the result doesn't have to be physical; a spiritual A rank battlefield nightmare mode will fuck us up right along with the rest of the forces here. Denying the possibility of that has value.
  • If we're playing defensively and prioritizing soldiers and civillians, it is much harder for multiple strong opponents to gang up on an out-of-position LQ. Granted if there's suddenly a lot of high level greens present the situation is fucked, but the whole point is that it won't be that much more fucked if we're on the offense. The reason for that is:
  • LQ is extremely mobile and even more slippery; keeping us busy with distracting fights just isn't something that can happen below actual-peer level (and not trash appraisals). Especially since the aim of drive is to break their force by dealing as much damage as possible and not let them regroup and adapt. A scenario that boils down to "but what if we fail every objective of option X" isn't a valid argument.
  • Our ability to control a force as highly mobile as barbarian raiders from a defensive standpoint is decidedly limited; we can prevent them from doing much within our (admittedly large) range, but splitting their forces in multiple directions and playing keep-away is definitely a tactic they could adapt to deal with us only being able to hold one position at a time, which is at best this single village when there's another nearby (possibly already under attack) and the one further south with Xiulan and Zhengui.
We're not gonna be doing nothing, we are explicitly going to be attacking them the entire time just pushing enough prevent them from scattering which the other option explicitly attempts to do. If there is "suddenly a lot of high level greens present" we are fucked either way, there is nothing to be done in either scenario except run with whatever we can bring with us. We would be way more fucked should this theoretical scenario happen on the offensive because we aren't protecting anyone and failing our object of keeping the villages safe even harder.

We are not familiar with what Barbarian Greens are like, all we know is that they have flying spirit horses and one could pretty easily infer that something like a Green Spirit Horse is gonna be fast. As fast as Ling Qi? Maybe not, but definitely fast enough to be problematic in the same way that Zhengui's armor is problematic for anyone trying to hurt him. Distracting fights don't need to be things like letting a green go, it can be two greens rotating in and out each firing one attack at Shen Hu or the other noble while the other fights us for a round. Rinse and Repeat. Maybe we don't get caught in that and can Hammer and Anvil them with Shen Hu, may be we can't. I'd rather be certain of keeping the collateral damage as low as possible because our forces are spread thin and Ling Qi can only attack so many people at once.

Our ability to control a force as highly mobiled as the barbarians raiders is decidedly limited, period. Attempting to scatter them versus keeping them bottled is a difference of opening up the battlefield or containing it. Either way we're going to find out who has the faster draw time here. Scattering them or them escaping containment has the same bad effect, they get to attack another village. Maybe they don't because they were beat up by Ling Qi, which hopefully happens in either scenario but I'd rather go for the more guarenteed boardwipe via Three Imperial Greens vs. Barbarians than trying to morale break them.
 
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Continuing this, while the godly *krogan* vanguard is fantastically unstoppable, they are not invincible. And just because you can handily headbutt a lone Geth Prime to death doesn't mean that fighting *two* Geth Primes at once is a good idea. It's not impossible, but it can get dicy.
 
[X] Drive them before you

The best defense is a good offense here. Slow and methodical is just that, slow. We're up against a highly mobile attack force, if we move slow they will go around us to safety. We need to use our element of surprise here to get rid of as many of them as we can.
 
[X] Drive them before you

Ling Qi is terrible at structured plans and thrives in states of chaos, most people don't work that way. She's best as the sudden wraith showing up and making everyone's day vastly more confusing.

This is a simple plan that basically just leans on "Fighting as you always do", which is a plan that's hard to fuck up, it also doesn't concede the initiative with the morale shock we've already achieved. There's no point to that if you just let the other guys rally up.

I imagine the Mystery Guy will intervene if casualties mount up too much, because I suspect he's the Insurance Policy just like how our side had senior brothers and sisters around as our Insurance Policy--he's less likely to intervene to do the job in the first place and more likely to intervene to stop us from turning a rout into a massacre.

They're not at Rout level just yet. We want to get them to that level, and then let them run so we don't provoke the elite to fuck us up.
 
One point that I feel hasn't been emphasized enough is that "Let them come" costs us time. Even if "Let them come" results in less civilian casualties in the village we're in, there might be more civilian casualties in the other two villages in the meantime. We might be able to prevent some of these casualties if we finish this engagement quickly enough. This does depend on the details of the situations in the other two villages, but I believe it's a reasonable assumption to make based on the stated consequences of each option and Hanyi's comment in this chapter.

There is a "high risk of overextension" with "Drive them before you," but arriving at the other battlefields heavily injured is better than not arriving at all and could very well be better than arriving late. Even if we are incapacitated before the end of the current engagement, we would likely have done a great deal of damage to the barbarian forces before falling, making it easier for the others on our side in this village to control the situation. The other villages might still be as well off as they would be with "Let them come."

My argument here does not apply if there are no consequences caused by the lost time in "Let them come." I don't think this will be the case based on the narrative clues in this chapter.
"You know as well as I do that something is wrong here," Ling Qi murmured back, she faced ahead, silver light flickering in the whites of her eyes as she scanned the rushing landscape and the churning clouds. The sky was beginning to darken, a harbinger of rain, but whether it was natural or barbarian sorcery Ling Qi could not say. "The timing, the fact that they were spotted at just the right time."

"You're not wrong," Sixiang murmured, but Ling Qi appreciated the attempt at comfort all the same.

"Hmph, we'll just have to kill them and go back quick. It'll be easy for Sis," Hanyi said haughtily from within her dantian.

Although Hanyi is not exactly the best strategist, the plan Hanyi puts out is something I believe Ling Qi is considering. It might be a red-herring, but I believe it's a reasonable plan to follow for now given what we know.
 
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[X] Drive them before you

Continuing this, while the godly *krogan* vanguard is fantastically unstoppable, they are not invincible. And just because you can handily headbutt a lone Geth Prime to death doesn't mean that fighting *two* Geth Primes at once is a good idea. It's not impossible, but it can get dicy.

You know, you've done several multiplayer analogies, but both DOTA and ME multiplayer are missing three essential aspects of the scenario: 1) side asymmetry, 2) the expansion of the field beyond the immediate battle, and 3) varied degrees of loss or victory.

The enemy is a band of highly-mobile raiders, and your analogies largely strip away that entire aspect of the situation. I know that analogies are inexact, but that's less "assume a spherical cow" and "assume a bear." Yes, they're both mammals, but that's about where the meaningful similarities end.
 
You know, you've done several multiplayer analogies, but both DOTA and ME multiplayer are missing three essential aspects of the scenario: 1) side asymmetry, 2) the expansion of the field beyond the immediate battle, and 3) varied degrees of loss or victory.

The enemy is a band of highly-mobile raiders, and your analogies largely strip away that entire aspect of the situation. I know that analogies are inexact, but that's less "assume a spherical cow" and "assume a bear." Yes, they're both mammals, but that's about where the meaningful similarities end.
I would note here that my analogies here are more about highlighting the risks of overextending and getting overconfident.

I agree that it breaks down if one tries to apply it to describe the value of defense, because the situation there is, as you say, very different.
 
[X] Drive them before you

Ling Qi is terrible at structured plans and thrives in states of chaos, most people don't work that way. She's best as the sudden wraith showing up and making everyone's day vastly more confusing.

This is a simple plan that basically just leans on "Fighting as you always do", which is a plan that's hard to fuck up, it also doesn't concede the initiative with the morale shock we've already achieved. There's no point to that if you just let the other guys rally up.

I imagine the Mystery Guy will intervene if casualties mount up too much, because I suspect he's the Insurance Policy just like how our side had senior brothers and sisters around as our Insurance Policy--he's less likely to intervene to do the job in the first place and more likely to intervene to stop us from turning a rout into a massacre.

They're not at Rout level just yet. We want to get them to that level, and then let them run so we don't provoke the elite to fuck us up.
I'm pretty sure there's zero evidence to support your assertion Ling Qi is terrible at structured plans, and it's something you've conjured out of your imagination. Or perhaps aspirations for a specific wraith aesthetic, but whatever it is, it isn't the actual character and materials we have to work with.

Edit: it's also a vague statement with no definitive meaning.
 
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I'm pretty sure there's zero evidence to support your assertion Ling Qi is terrible at structured plans, and it's something you've conjured out of your imagination. Or perhaps aspirations for a specific wraith aesthetic, but whatever it is, it isn't the actual character and materials we have to work with.
Well, we do have low War...

otoh, one could argue that going Leeroy Jenkins on the enemy army and overextending would be due to low War too, so.... :p
 
[x] Drive them before you

As I see it opposition has strength of numbers, mobility and initiative while defenders don't have strong defensive positions. If we Let them come we boost defensive situation, but allow opposition to retain their advantages. If we instead Drive them before you then we disrupt their plan by taking their initiative away which reduces effects their strength of numbers gives them.

Raiders are going to win if we don't do anything and if we take our time I expect that they have resources to counter us should they want to. I am worried about Ling Qi overextending herself, but that does not justify letting enemy to do whatever it wants at its leisure.
 
[x] Drive them before you

Ling Qi falls on her enemies like a shock, swift and deadly, unexpected and bam, gone as fast as she appeared, out of nowhere.
We can surely take down at least one Appraisal level and scatter the enemy troops before they can plan, plus I think, forcing the mystery person to reveal themselves early as a reaction to us will be strategically advantageous for our side. Once that mystery opponent joins the fray, things will be risky for LQ, but I am almost sure that there are people available to show up and help out in a mment of emergency if LQ is cornered. Plus, once we've caused chaos, if we are overexterted, we can always flee and retreat in the midst of the chaos instead of sticking aound and fight at a disadvantage. But both rampaging and fleeing will be much harder if we give the enemy time to plan around us.

It does feel more high risk, high reward-y too, but I did pick to go "agressive" in the last vote wanting to risk it, so I am not planning to go half-ways about it. FULL RISK or go home! >:3
 
[X] Drive them before you

If it were just this battle, right here, I might let them come, but it is not. We need to tear the heart out of this offensive now, and move on to the next. If it means that a few more villagers here will be at risk then would otherwise have been... well, they're still vastly less risk than if we'd not intervened at all, and our moving through this engagement quickly will mean less risk for the civilians at the other locations.

Hit fast, strike hard, send them into disarray, and if they manage to press us, disengage and be elsewhere. The amount of pressure they'd have to bring to bear to actually make Ling Qi sweat is enough that that's a pretty strong protective move all by itself
 
One of the basic setting narrative and mechanical conceits is that numbers matter. Ling Qi is better against numbers than is typical due to the nature of her arts, but she's not immune. The hidden enemy doesn't need to be a Green 6 super bullshit kryptonite build to be a threat; they could be another Appraisal and stall out a solo Ling Qi, in combination with the other enemy Greens, with the right tactics.

And the problem with counting on Ling Qi's offensive to run interference for our allies' defensive gains is our allies are already seriously straining under less than the full weight of the enemy's forces. Additionally, the enemy has the superior mobility to withdraw or redeploy their forces in ways our allies can't keep up with. The premise of Let them come is using Ling Qi's mobility to match their's and prevent this. Having Ling Qi charge the enemy means our side doesn't have anyone who can do that. There's no clear reason they couldn't pull back their Greens to deal with her without a huge amount of opportunity cost- our allies aren't likely to catch up, and might have trouble asisting us in the sky if we're meeting the enemy where they are anyway.
 
[X] Drive them before you


At the beginning of this update Ling Qi is explicitly worried that the attack we are currently responding to was a setup meant to draw forces in, allowing the barbarians to strike elsewhere.

Well, I think she has a point.
And in this case giving the barbarians time is basically letting them accomplish their objective. Besides, Ling Qi is the only allied flier here, so more time will be of even more use to the barbarians, allowing them to gather all their best for a targeted strike against Ling Qi, while right now they are still disorganized.
 
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