This is also bring another aspect economic but It's purely speculation and dependent on the quest world building that we don't know IC because we are prowess maxxing. 💪 Edit* Emoji for our strong sword arm
But I feel like many people here are just a priori expecting it will be a Daeron II/Moron Martell situation, even while there is very few speaking for that.
Yeah, I am not expecting that but I am strategically Qoren+Unification man to counter IC and OOC support for Conquest of Dorne. They have expectation it will be a quick and simple war. It never is. Also he's Maron Martell.
In addition, the difference between Daeron's invasion of Dorne and our invasion of Dorne is simple, we know where Daeron went wrong. If we can avoid making his mistakes, we can successfully conquer Dorne.
What Daeron I did wrong? What misstep he did that avoided will free us from the canon Conquest?
 
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Y'all are forgetting that Dorne is on the eve of war. There's conflict brewing between Daemons new kingdom, Dorne and the Three Sisters.

@Susano has a point, aligning with the Dornish (an outside antagonist force) will unite the Reach againist us. I can't stress this enough the Reach has roughly 80,000 men, if those numbers are combined with the gold (and men) of Westerlands, it might be enough to bury us.

In addition, the difference between Daeron's invasion of Dorne and our invasion of Dorne is simple, we know where Daeron went wrong. If we can avoid making his mistakes, we can successfully conquer Dorne.
And I'd like to repeat that this is just conjecture and fearmongering. The Reach is not automatically going to support the Lannisters as one unified block.
 
What Daeron I did wrong? What misstep he did that avoided will free us from the canon Conquest?

  1. Believing the that Dornish wouldn't violate a peace banner.
  2. Placing a rather foolish (and lavious) governor over the Dornish.
  3. Allowing the Dornish too much foriegn support
And I'd like to repeat that this is just conjecture and fearmongering. The Reach is not automatically going to support the Lannisters as one unified block.

Aligning with their historical enemy will drive the Reach into the arms of one of our enemies. One of major enemies is the Westerlands who will back any son of Johanna over us. Seems pretty likely to me.
 
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What Daeron I did wrong? What misstep he did that avoided will free us from the canon Conquest?

Marching an army into the desert. It's always the same shit, always with the Reach armies marching into the desert...

Basically, both Aegon I and Daeron I's second campaign treated Dorne like a normal campaign in any other part of Westeros. You amass a big ass army, and then march from hold to hold and force them to surrender. Only in Dorne, holds don't stay surrendered, but will rise up again as soon as the host marches on, and also the desert means you can't "forage" making the logistics of your big ass army very difficult.

So... don't do that.

While I am not necessarily in favour of it, I think a more successful Conquest of Dorne could be done. Treat it as a naval operation. Dorne has so much coast, but basically zero naval power (and in the rare times they do, well, the Fourth War is a lesson of what happens to enemy ships under dragon fire). Assemble a fleet in the southern Stormlands, and then land at the Arm of Dorne and Sunspear. A safe crossing should be assured; the Sea of Dorne between Stormlands and Dorne is even noted as a very calm sea.

So - take Sunspear first of all instead of making it the crowning conclusion of your campaign like Daeron II did, or even sparing it in order to incite an anti-Martell revolt as Aegon I did. Decapitate Dorne. And then don't march into the desert, but first secure coastal Dorne. Lock that shit down. And then you can begin a small-scale war for the desert, basically taking one oasis at a time, many small scale operations, instead of having a big ass army marching through the dunes.

It would take time, of course, probably our whole reign would be spent keeping an eye of Dorne and it would take generations until the desert is fully pacified - but we would have the richest parts of Dorne locked down and have a road to full success, and a small scale warfare also means it would be done without too much resource investment.
 
Aligning with their historical enemy will drive the Reach into the arms of one of our enemies. One of major enemies is the Westerlands who will back any son of Johanna over us. Seems pretty likely to me.
Likely? It keeps getting presented as immutable fact.

Which I severely doubt since diplomacy is a thing and the Reachers ain't caricatures. We'll have ample time to negotiate with the Reacher houses to ensure their support or at least acceptance of the match long before the actual wedding takes place.
 
What?

Even Daemon isn't idiotic enough to attack Dorne after we married Qoren.
Daemon wasn't idiotic enough to attack Dorne in canon to begin with, as he had to be more worried about the Triarchy. As I have said, Dorne barely has a naval presence that could threaten his stepstones. Dorne actually won that round for the Stepstones in the end in canon, but only because the Triarchy fell in on itself, and then the Stepstones slipped from their control anyway, because no navy.

Qoren won't fold the independence of his principality just because of one (1) dragon at his doorstep, whose rider has to worry far more about three rich cities on the other side of the sea.

So what bearing does that mention of the war have? At most it's a reminder for us not to get involved in that whole mess.
 
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Daemon wasn't idiotic enough to attack Dorne in canon to begin with, as he had to be more worried about the Triarchy. As I have said, Dorne barely has a naval presence that could threaten his stepstones. They actually won that round for the Stepstones in the end in canon, but only because the Triarchy fell in on itself, and then the Stepstones slipped from their control anyway, because no navy.

Qoren won't fold the independence of his principality just because of one (1) dragon at his doorstep, whose rider has to worry far more about three rich cities on the other side of the sea.

So what bearing does that mention of the war have? At most it's a reminder for us not to get involved in that whole mess.
And why would Dorne get involved in that mess in the first place if it didn't impact them?

The fact that they can't really do anything to oppose Daemon if he started an embargo of Dorne is precisely the problem.

The whole matter resolves itself neatly for everyone except the Theee Daughters if Dorne were to join the Iron Throne and stay neutral.
 
Even Daemon isn't idiotic enough to attack Dorne after we married Qoren.

Well, the Dornish are already (unofficaly) attacking Daemon.

There were rumors that the Three Daughters were all but begging Dorne to get involved, and many suspected some of the pirates giving your uncle a hard time had been funded by Sunspear,

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Which I severely doubt since diplomacy is a thing and the Reachers ain't caricatures. We'll have ample time to negotiate with the Reacher houses to ensure their support or at least acceptance of the match long before the actual wedding takes place.

Since you wouldn't be convinced that marrying Dornish will ruin our political chances in the Reach, we will have to agree to disagree.

Although, I will reserve the right to you, I told you so. When your plan goes (inevitability) goes wrong. As your passing up on both the Dragons of House Velaryon [Laenor] and the men of the Reach [Anti-Dornish policy]. All for a small desert that contains at best 20,000 people under arms.
 
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And why would Dorne get involved in that mess in the first place if it didn't impact them?

Because it IS at their doorstep?

But there is a gigantic difference between "get involved" and "surrender the independence of your principality". Dorne defied three dragons burning their lands to crisp and a Reach army. They will not fold just because the mere presence of one dragon and some sellsail rabble Corlys has bought together.

In a pinch, an embargo is better than losing independence. Dorne was never really a merchant centre anyway.
 
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Well, the Dornish are already (unofficaly) attacking Daemon.
Yeah, I'm not at all convinced by "people are speculating that". Qoren wouldn't be showing interest in the match with us if he was already committed to fighting Daemon. That's just blatantly nonsensical.

Because it IS at their doorstep?

But there is a gigantic difference between "get involved" and "surrender the independence of your principality". Dorne defied three dragons burning their lands to crisp and a Reach army. They will not fold just because the mere presence of one dragon and some sellsail rabble Corlys has bought together.

In a pinch, an embargo is better than losing independence. Dorne was never really a merchant centre anyway.
I think you are axiomatically convinced of the idea that Dorne wishes to remain independent at all costs and are reasoning backwards from that.

Which makes this discussion kinda moot.
 
Yeah, I'm not at all convinced by "people are speculating that"
Would you accept the argument that this is just flat out canon, the Dornish did back the Three Daughters in the Stepstone War?
I think you are axiomatically convinced of the idea that Dorne wishes to remain independent
Broadly speaking this is the desire of most states / proto states especially ones without a clear national/ethnic identity creating a desire for union
 
Would you accept the argument that this is just flat out canon, the Dornish did back the Three Daughters in the Stepstone War?
We are not in the canon story though? Things have gone rather severely off the rails.

Broadly speaking this is the desire of most states / proto states especially ones without a clear national/ethnic identity creating a desire for union
You are projecting a westphalian notion of nationhood onto a feudal society that simply does not operate in the same way.
 
I think you are axiomatically convinced of the idea that Dorne wishes to remain independent at all costs and are reasoning backwards from that.

Which makes this discussion kinda moot.

Realms won't fall over themselves just to join us. Come on. That's not a reasonable expectation to operate on.

Oh sure, Dorne joining up would be convenient... for us. Because, once again, what "joining up" means is "submitting to House Targaryen". House Martell won't give up its entire sovereignty just because it would be a neat arrangement in some trade customs dispute (and that is what makes the Stepstones valuable). Especially not when they fought two outright ruinous, almost genocidal wars in canon (one of them already happened in our history) to keep that sovereignty.

But even other, less defiant powers wouldn't just throw away their sovereignty and submit to House Targaryen on a whim. At the moment, Dorne is as foreign to us as is Pentos or Myr, and I see no considerations that we have to bring them "into the fold", or that they would fall over themselves to join us.

We are not in the canon story though? Things have gone rather severely off the rails.
That doesn't mean everything has to be different. If it happens in canon, and we have evidence for it happening in the quest as well, it probably is happening in the quest as well. And you know that.

Your whole argumentation is turning farcical, bordering on bad faith. And it's getting annoying.
 
I think you are axiomatically convinced of the idea that Dorne wishes to remain independent at all costs and are reasoning backwards from that.
Having read Fire and Blood... this is kind of true. If the Dornish aren't willing to surrender after every castle in the kingdom save Sunspear has been given the Harrenhall treatment, what will?
 
Since this seems to be getting mildly heated, I propose we put this argument on pause until the next update. If the scouting out marriages action tells us what Qoren expects to happen, or at least what Rhaenyra thinks Qoren expects to happen, we'll have more to go on.
 
That doesn't mean everything has to be different. If it happens in canon, and we have evidence for it happening in the quest as well, it probably is happening in the quest as well. And you know that.

Your whole argumentation is turning farcical, bordering on bad faith. And it's getting annoying.
There's literally an achievement on the first page of this thread that was put there specifically to remind people that they should not assume canon will happen.
Canon Avoided
The canonical events of the Dance of Dragons and the years that came before it are no longer possible. Rhaenyra has weaved a new fate for the whole Realm.​

If you insist on fencing with canon, I'd like to point out that one of the few things the wiki notes about Qoren Martell is that he does not wish to fight against dragons.

Qoren Martell

And right now, Daemon is parked in the Stepstones with a massive dragon while making vague conquest noises at everything around him.

I see no reason to assume that things go as canon here, especially since the fact that Qoren expressed interest in the match is already a break from canon.
 
If you insist on fencing with canon, I'd like to point out that one of the few things the wiki notes about Qoren Martell is that he does not wish to fight against dragons.
He didn't wish to get involved in the Dance, which was probably a wise decision, because what would he even have stood to gain? However, he did join the Triarchy in fighting Daemon, though, which happens to be the war we're talking about.
 
He didn't wish to get involved in the Dance, which was probably a wise decision, because what would he even have stood to gain? However, he did join the Triarchy in fighting Daemon, though, which happens to be the war we're talking about.
If he married us, he could avoid fighting Daemon though since there would be no reason anymore. And, even better, he would put an end to Dorne or parts of it periodically getting burned down by dragons.

For all that Qoren knows, Daemons antics are just a prelude to a repeat performance of the First Dornish War. He is working with the Sea Snake after all, who also have dragons at their disposal. And not everyone is as callous to see their entire lands burned to the ground like Meria Martell was.
 
If he married us, he could avoid fighting Daemon though since there would be no reason anymore. And, even better, he would put an end to Dorne or parts of it periodically getting burned down by dragons.

For all that Qoren knows, Daemons antics are just a prelude to a repeat performance of the First Dornish War. He is working with the Sea Snake after all, who also have dragons at their disposal. And not everyone is as callous to see their entire lands burned to the ground like Meria Martell was.
Once again, that doesn't mean he'll surrender the sovereignty of his House, though. He might try to go for a peace match, for exactly the reasons you mentioned, but by and large, Houses don't surrender their sovereignty nilly-willy. Doesn't matter if it's Westphalian or feudal. And in such a match, he'd gain all the benefits, and we'd get very few. I mean, as was mentioned, that'd come up in negotiations, and I'd certainly be in favour in having negotiations, ideally multiple negotiations running in parallel, but...

Yeah. At the end of the day, nobles and houses don't submit just so. Doesn't even matter if it's Dorne or not. That's just wishful thinking.
 
Once again, that doesn't mean he'll surrender the sovereignty of his House, though. He might try to go for a peace match, for exactly the reasons you mentioned, but by and large, Houses don't surrender their sovereignty nilly-willy. Doesn't matter if it's Westphalian or feudal. And in such a match, he'd gain all the benefits, and we'd get very few. I mean, as was mentioned, that'd come up in negotiations, and I'd certainly be in favour in having negotiations, ideally multiple negotiations running in parallel, but...

Yeah. At the end of the day, nobles and houses don't submit just so. Doesn't even matter if it's Dorne or not. That's just wishful thinking.
A temporary alliance would not secure long-term peace between the Iron Throne and Dorne though and if he desires that, then there's no way around swearing to the Iron Throne, provided we can offer him terms that are acceptable.

Dorne is not in a stable and safe situation ever since Aegon's Conquest and while remaining independent for now, they still have to bury a lot of bodies every time something happens. There's no reason for Qoren, who does not get to read the wiki to know what will happen next, to assume that Dorne will not be integrated by force at some point. He's definitely going to get much better terms for House Nymeros-Martells fealty in a marriage deal than his children or grandchildren might get when they have to kneel in the ashes of Sunspear.
 
Dorne is not in a stable and safe situation ever since Aegon's Conquest

It took 150 years and a second invasion for Dorne to "join the fold". That's 6 generations, more by Westerosi standards, really. I think we can say Dorne is plenty stable. At least, not more unstable than our own realm which suffered such things as the Faith Militant uprising, Maegor's tyranny, the Dance, the Secret Siege, Baelor the Lunatic and Aegon IV in that time. Sure, they are facing a foreign policy crisis at the moment due to Daemon, but that's something that just happens to realms and dynasties. Nothing to throw away sovereignty over at the first sign of some trouble. Things usually would have to go a lot more desperate than that for that to happen.
 
I think both of you are incorrect identifying Daeron I mistake. He won for Gods sake! His army defeated all the army between Red Mountain and Narrow Sea! He won! Gloriously even. His death doesn't even end the war it is Baelor I one that did by pulling back!
The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Daeron I said:
This tactic proved less effective than Daeron might have hoped, however. Whilst the hostages helped ensure the continued loyalty of their own blood, the king had not anticipated the tenacity of Dorne's smallfolk, over whom he had no hold. Ten thousand men, it is said, died in the battle for Dorne; forty thousand more died over the course of the following three years, as common Dornishmen fought on stubbornly against the king's men.
The Dornish smallfolk won't submit with Targaryen rule. It is general revolt the farmer you pass at the day will kill you at the inn in the night. How will Rhaenyra end this? What is to gain if your tax official are killed at every corner? Now what is the difference between Daeron I and Daeron II? That make Dornish smallfolk don't shank their noble and create a new rulership?
The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Daeron II said:
However, Prince Maron had won a few concessions in the accord, and the lords of Dorne held significant rights and privileges that the other great houses did not—the right to keep their royal title first among them, but also the autonomy to maintain their own laws, the right to assess and gather the taxes due to the Iron Throne with only irregular oversight from the Red Keep, and other such matters.
These concession once again. And this make peace possible because Smallfolk are the one that must obey the majority of law and pay all the taxes, maintain all the infrastructure. They like Dornish law and taxes they hate Iron Throne Law and Taxes. They hate their daughter can not inherit! They hate Iron throne taxes that don't care about their local condition! They hate "other such matters." of the Iron Throne. All these that probably heavily influenced by their Rhoynar heritage, the people our ancestor ethnic cleansed from Essos. These other matter probably reassure that dragon gaze doesn't touch the smallfolk from its vengeance.

My conclusion Aegon I and Daeron I failed to ensure Dornish smallfolk accept them or their rule by imposing Iron Throne law and political system to the Dornish. The racist Marcher and Reacher soldier and racist governor conduct probably don't help either. The majority of the cause of 40-50 thousand men dead are just the smallfolk shanking all Targaryen soldier they can get. Probably also the killer of Daeron too because why obey these. Seven Kingdom are like Ottoman Empire "Custodian of the Two Mosque" that didn't control the Two Holy Mosques because their Turkish nationalism ensure the Arab don't want to be second class citizen.

These are the key for Dornish unification. These why I say we will repeat our ancestor mistake if we conquer Dorne. The political reality unless we let Dornish join with their political system that Dornish smallfolk favor so thoroughly untouched it won't succeed as the smallfolk will revolt. The servant will poison us independently of the noble.
 
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It took 150 years and a second invasion for Dorne to "join the fold". That's 6 generations, more by Westerosi standards, really. I think we can say Dorne is plenty stable. At least, not more unstable than our own realm which suffered such things as the Faith Militant uprising, Maegor's tyranny, the Dance, the Secret Siege, Baelor the Lunatic and Aegon IV in that time. Sure, they are facing a foreign policy crisis at the moment due to Daemon, but that's something that just happens to realms and dynasties. Nothing to throw away sovereignty over at the first sign of some trouble. Things usually would have to go a lot more desperate than that for that to happen.
Again. You are using hindsight to dismiss the current situation as "foreign policy crisis" when it might as well be "prelude to invasion". There is one dragon in the Stepstones already and the head of house of another two dragons is also present and helping. If you want to argue about what makes sense to do from Qoren's perspective you should actually consider what he sees and knows.

And there flatly was no real attempt to conquer Dorne after the 1st Dornish War. The 2nd and 3rd were border skirmishes instigated by Dornish outlaws. The 4th was an Dornish attempt to invade the Iron Throne that ended in total disaster.

Why precisely should anyone assume that a second invasion of Drone, using Daemon's and the Velaryon dragons, would not succeed?
 
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