As Germany seems to have succeeded in pressuring Japan to at least consider a status quo ante bellum peace with special arrangements to be made for Manchuria, Jiang is also willing to talk if only to get the chance to take a figurative breath, and then krump Mao. And here's to hoping he succeeds: when the son of a bitch (Mao) racks up a bigger body count than Stalin or possibly even Hitler, it makes you go WTF.
While Berlin will have put some pressure on Tokyo, it doubt it was all that much for several reasons:
- This Japan has seen the coming abyss and wants a way out, if a compromise with China helps so be it
- Suzuki, who for now heads Japan´s government, is military himself and can estimate the war situation. While Japan has the China front under control, it binds a majority of the IJA, who could bolster important positions against th Wallies elsewhere. For retreating from China after the war (and freeing up quite a bit of the Japanese Forces in the meantime), Chiang will have to pay and compromise too.
- This point has relation to the former. Japan´s expansion is fueled for an important part by production potential (e.g. most of Manchukuo´s comparatively high industrialisation effort was pushed by the Japanese) and especially the hunger for raw materials and a secure supply of them. If these goals are met, the war was a success, so trade and delivery of raw materials to the Home Islands will be major points of the peace treaty. The biggest stickling point will be how the treaty with China is worded, so both can claim victory and save face.
From a western perspective personally I would like to read that fictive document for the curiosity factor alone how they solved the saving face problems. In OTL hosting the 2002 WC involved major haggling and deftly wording of anything between Japan and Korea and this was decades after the War. Here we have two nations in a brutal conflict with many actors taking the "heavenly mandate","Samurai honor"and "saving Face" deadly serious. That would be an epic read as far as legal texts go.
- The Japanese leadership knows how the OTL war went on. Here in Walküre-TL, the war situation of Japan stabilises and improves, which gives them more room and freedom of actions, on the homefront as well. As far as the mainland China expansions except Manchukuo are concerned, only a deluded tiny minority in Tokyo believed the Chinese there would become "good, little Japanese" anytime soon. Getting that iron ball from the legs, while securing supply of important materials is a trade most in Tokyo will sign easily, as long as they can sell it as a victory. Which it actually is after a fashion.
- If Germany and Japan emerge from the War halfway intact, Japan knows that the Deutsches Heer and the Nippon Teikoku Rikugun will be major power factors and both nations entities of great importance on the world stage. So making sure the alliance goes on and gets deeper, is important for both. A give and take approach will be the norm.
- While there will be some grumbling from the hardcore factions, I think most of Walküre-Japan will take a stance of "Shoganai to ganbatte" loosly translated as "Shit happens, we deal with it and move forward (elsewhere)".
en.wikipedia.org
