Merkels Operation Walküre

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A Tiger was a heavy tank, the Panther the prototype of an MBT. That you don't have to forget. The Germans decided to build the Tiger III to fill the gap of the Leopard 2, which can't be produced in necessary numbers. The Panther II and Löwe tanks are more in the tradition of an MBT and thus have a different role on the battlefield. Their 10,5 cm gun is sufficient for the time being. More than that. Even the 8,8 cm gun is.
 
Meanwhile, I'd pick the very boring option of an M4A3E8 - because sure, it's not as good in terms of raw numbers, in theory, but I like being able to, you know, actually get out of the tank before I burn to death/the tank explodes/I get hit by shrapnel, thank you very much.



Well, the M4 was notorious for burning. The nickname Ronson wasn't undeserved. The Germans called it Tommykocher (limey cooker) and the Russians "Grave for five friends"!
 
Well, the M4 was notorious for burning. The nickname Ronson wasn't undeserved. The Germans called it Tommykocher (limey cooker) and the Russians "Grave for five friends"!
I see your claim that the Shermans were unique in their tendency to ignite when hit, and point you at this: Why the M4 sherman burned when hit (short answer, the tank crews decided they preferred ammo ready racks in the turret for increased rate of fire over removing those ready racks to improve tank durability at the cost of rate of fire) and also this:
 
The T-34 were considered to be used for scrap once they broke down. And that happened frequently. Oh, BTW, if I had to choose, in which tank I would have to serve in ww2, I would take a Tiger II. They were beasts.
I know why you would choose the Tiger II and he is a favourite of mine too! The reason why I prefer the Tiger I a bit more is that there was too much emergency construction done on the King Tiger due to dwindling ressources. A King Tiger built to planned specs, that would be a natural choice!

Meanwhile, I'd pick the very boring option of an M4A3E8 - because sure, it's not as good in terms of raw numbers, in theory, but I like being able to, you know, actually get out of the tank before I burn to death/the tank explodes/I get hit by shrapnel, thank you very much.
The M4 was not quite as bad as he is often considered, but it was a mediocre tank all in all. He was reliable and swamped the opposition with sheer numbers. Many consider it a good "commander´s choice", because of it´s reliability, but not a real frontline unit. In a halfway fair fight against a "Cat" with just a competent crew, not even an Ace crew, in the German Tank, the Sherman lost. Had the makers of "Fury" had the guts to go against Hollywood dogma, the Sherman would have been destroyed in the battle, not the Tiger. I find it interesting that many US veteran tankers were angry with the end of the movie, because they knew from hard experience had they done that, the Tiger would have blown them to kingdom come.
 
The primary advantage of Allied armor was always their weight of numbers. One on one, German tanks, for all that they're painted as over-engineered, are always better than their Allied counterparts. That's not to say the Allies didn't have good commanders (Patton and Eisenhower deserve their stars, no question about it) or crews, but their machines were average at best. I would disagree though, on picking the Panzer VII Tiger II if I had to choose a tank to serve on.

I'll take the Panzer V Panther, for its balance of speed, power, and protection. Sorry :(

EDIT: For light tanks though, I'll pick the Japanese Chi-He. I know it's technically classed a medium tank, but weight and firepower-wise, it's a light tank. That said, Japanese armor is always underestimated, probably because they send what should be light tanks against medium or even heavy tanks. But those should-be light tanks are the best in that category, with the ShinHoTo Chi-Ha and Chi-He outgunning a vanilla M3/T-26/Crusade I-II tanks. Light and fast too, as the Brits and Aussies found the hard way in Malaya. And like the Germans, the Japanese put radios in all their tanks from the Chi-Ha onward.
 
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To be honest, the only part of "Fury" I saw, was just this fight. And I thought it was completely unrealistic.



And here is the commentary, on German only.



The analysis is not deep, but good. The mistakes of the movie:

1. The Tiger would have attacked the first tank of the convoy at first, so that the convoy had to stop. Then the last one, that they can't retreat. So Fury would be gone at first. That would be the same, if there had been a Pak. Okay, Fury had to survive, unless it's the end of the movie.

2. Wardaddy recognizes very fast, that a 8,8 had attacked them and that a tank was shooting on them. But one could see nothing yet.

3. The tanks attack the Tiger in a too near distance to each other. That is owed to the filming.

4. The Tiger drives forward, beyond the point, where he is out of the smoke. That was a condition to get the tank from the Bovington Museum to show a driving Tiger tank. Originally the Tiger should have stayed in cover.

5. The Tiger fires during driving. There is no "Schießhalt", meaning no stop to fire. As the gun of the tiger is not stabilized like a Leo 2 gun, he won't likely hit an open barn door. In contrast to the US guns.

6. The 7,62 cm gun of two of the Shermans could have penetrated the Tiger armour at 500 yards.

7. The two last US tanks try to attack the Tiger from two sides, but that results in attacking from a position the Tiger has more armour (look above, Mahlzeitstellung).

8. Instead of attacking the last 7,62 tank, Fury, the Tiger shoots the 7,5 cm Sherman.

9. At this distance hitting Fury at the side with the tree strengenthed armour would have led to the destruction.

10. A shrapnel had hit the hydraulics. But that would mean, the stabilizing of the gun isn't possible any more as well.

11. Why didn't the Tiger fire in the last moments?

Yes, it is a Hollywood film. I know.
 

That's one thing that is often forgotten when talking about German tanks from WWII, especially late war. Their stats on paper could differ a lot from what was actually build due to lack of critical materials, especially when armour, engines, etc... are concerned. If actually build to spec with the right or even improved resources as in this story's case, then they can become very, very scary beasts indeed. Their problems were less than design issues, though those were often present, and more in line of the late war German industry being unable to build the machines to spec due to various reasons.
 
To be honest, the only part of "Fury" I saw, was just this fight. And I thought it was completely unrealistic.



And here is the commentary, on German only.



The analysis is not deep, but good. The mistakes of the movie:

1. The Tiger would have attacked the first tank of the convoy at first, so that the convoy had to stop. Then the last one, that they can't retreat. So Fury would be gone at first. That would be the same, if there had been a Pak. Okay, Fury had to survive, unless it's the end of the movie.

2. Wardaddy recognizes very fast, that a 8,8 had attacked them and that a tank was shooting on them. But one could see nothing yet.

3. The tanks attack the Tiger in a too near distance to each other. That is owed to the filming.

4. The Tiger drives forward, beyond the point, where he is out of the smoke. That was a condition to get the tank from the Bovington Museum to show a driving Tiger tank. Originally the Tiger should have stayed in cover.

5. The Tiger fires during driving. There is no "Schießhalt", meaning no stop to fire. As the gun of the tiger is not stabilized like a Leo 2 gun, he won't likely hit an open barn door. In contrast to the US guns.

6. The 7,62 cm gun of two of the Shermans could have penetrated the Tiger armour at 500 yards.

7. The two last US tanks try to attack the Tiger from two sides, but that results in attacking from a position the Tiger has more armour (look above, Mahlzeitstellung).

8. Instead of attacking the last 7,62 tank, Fury, the Tiger shoots the 7,5 cm Sherman.

9. At this distance hitting Fury at the side with the tree strengenthed armour would have led to the destruction.

10. A shrapnel had hit the hydraulics. But that would mean, the stabilizing of the gun isn't possible any more as well.

11. Why didn't the Tiger fire in the last moments?

Yes, it is a Hollywood film. I know.


I should add that the Shers should have advanced while firing smoke, again and again, and again, to cover all the charge to the Tiger. It was a common tactic to defeat (or at least scare and make them retreat) tanks. You can't see shit and if you shot you probably fail and give away your position to another tank or a grunt with a sticky bomb (or a motolov if you are russian or spanish).
 
I should add that the Shers should have advanced while firing smoke, again and again, and again, to cover all the charge to the Tiger. It was a common tactic to defeat (or at least scare and make them retreat) tanks. You can't see shit and if you shot you probably fail and give away your position to another tank or a grunt with a sticky bomb (or a motolov if you are russian or spanish).
Also, IIRC, US Army white phosphorous based smoke rounds could actually ignite the Tiger if they hit them in the right spot - which would have defeated the tank without even needing to pierce the armor.
 
Well, I think, I would have rewritten the scene. Let another tank, NOT Fury, be the leading tank. And also Fury not the last tank. Then I would have destroyed tanks #1 and #4, while Fury and the other tank retreat. Soon after the third tank is hit and Fury barely escapes. Out of the smoke the Tiger rolls out of the position to find a new place for another ambush. Fury had to retreat. They contact the HQ and they get told to take the crossing. They get support of other tanks and some infantry. In the next scene they drive for the crossing it's defended by infantry and a pak. The pak takes out a Sherman, but finally they can overwhelm the defenders. But then they are attacked by an SS battalion, which kills most of the US infantry and a Sherman, before Fury and the other Sherman drive them away. In this moment, when the battle seems to be won, the Tiger fires on the other Sherman, which explodes. Fury fires back, but the hit doesn't penetrate. Instead Fury is hit, all are dead, except Wardaddy and Norman. Wardaddy is mortally wounded though. Norman takes cover below the tank. In the meantime the Tiger and the other SS forces have retaken the crossing. The Tiger commander tells one of his men to look for survivors. The young German soldier finds Norman, but doesn't tell. Finally the SS retreats.

The next day US forces take the crossing again. Norman is celebrated as hero...
 
Also, IIRC, US Army white phosphorous based smoke rounds could actually ignite the Tiger if they hit them in the right spot - which would have defeated the tank without even needing to pierce the armor.

That's why during the Spanish Civil War the rebels use the L3 Lf as a tank destroyer. You can't 'tank' properly if you are on fire. And that is why fireproofing is important in modern tanks.
 
BTW, a Tiger I costed 250.000 RM, about 875.000 €. A Sherman about 65.000 $, today 850.000 $ (later variants). That Tiger I destroyed 2.550.000 $ or 2.314.000 € in that scene.

A single Sherman did nearly cost as much as a Tiger? I guess the firms making them made HUGE profits.
 
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@Lord Okkirke covered up a mistake I made within the German ship list. I forgot to mention the French battleship Provence. She is now serving as Tegethoff in the German Mittelmeerflotille, base Toulon. I also made the mistake to assume the Greek submarine Papanikolis had not yet be accepted by Greece. There had been some trouble with the Greek government, but that problem had been solved by 2010 already. Thus I had to delete her.
 
Chapter III, Part 10: The Enemy of my Enemy
Near Chongqing, September 8th, 1944, 00:23


It was already after midnight. Generalissimo Chiang was standing on a cleared field near Chongqing, the capital city of the Republic of China. He was standing there with only a handful of men, people he could trust with his life. The coming meeting was top secret. He couldn't trust anyone important in Chongqing, be it Chinese, British or American, at this moment. Several fires were lit to show the landing space.

Soon he heard a faint and strange sound, akin to a constant thumping drone, which grew increasingly loud. What came into his view shortly was something he had never seen before, an unusual aircraft with a very large propeller facing upwards and a smaller one at the tail facing sideways. To his astonishment, it came to a standstill midair and descended vertically to land.

Two soldiers, who were manning MGs onboard made way for the passengers. He knew all three of them. The first had been the ambassador of Germany before the war, Oskar Trautmann. The other was another German, John Rabe. An employee of Siemens, who had rescued many Chinese at Nanjing. The third he knew best, Jiang Wei-Kuo. His son. It had been a cold shock to hear of his son's capture. He felt relief, the stress coiled inside of him unravelled. It was through a handwritten letter from his son that this meeting was arranged.

"Your excellency," Chiang greeted the ambassador, "I hope your flight was well."

"Yes, it was," Trautmann said. "It's a marvellous thing, this Hubschrauber (helicopter). The Focke-Achgelis is quite a nice one, but our transport here is the result of decades of research. You can land or take off almost anywhere as long as there is enough space" He looked back and saw the crew ready to refuel.

"Ah, Mr Rabe. It's an honour to meet you." Chiang bowed.

"I am here just as the translator. But thank you." Rabe wanted to reduce his role. Indeed he was sent as he had leeway and was considered as the "German living Buddha" by the Chinese, a role he didn't like really.

Turning to his son he embraced him firmly. Trautmann saw him almost come to tears but soon Chiang schooled his expression to one fitting that of the leader of China.

"Gentlemen, I think, we should talk further in this barn." Jiang gesturing at an old barn next to them. "I apologise, but the circumstances require a more secret place to meet than the city. Luckily Stilwell is in India for a strategy conference, but there are still too many Yanquis left."

"I agree," Trautmann said and the group went into the barn. There were a table and four chairs, a soldier each of both Armed Forces stood at the back as guards.

"Before we start, we need to show you some more information, of what had happened in our time, could have, erm..., well..." Oskar Trautmann started again. "What would have happened, if the flow of time was not disturbed by the Event. Some scientists call it Zeitsprung or Zeitensturz for the press. Undoubtedly they have another, far more boring name for it amongst each other."

That brought a few chuckles from the men in the barn.

Then Oskar showed Chiang the history of China in the time that would now never be. Too much had already happened to change it. And the history of his own Kuomintang. Chiang kept his face stoic, but one could see still, that he was furious.

"So if we continue to fight we will win the war against the Japanese but lose against the communists? Mao? Forced to flee to Formosa? With next to no help from the US and Britain?" Chiang wanted to know.

"Exactly," Trautmann said. "It proved to bite them in the ass later, pardon my French, but that won't help you and your men."

"What do you offer?" Jiang wanted to know.

"Reunification of China, help against the communists and later on assistance in the development," Trautmann said.

"These are reparations in all but the name, your excellency." Rabe made clear.

Generalissimo Chiang looked at tablet which showed a map of China with markings showing territories held by the powers in the region. Chiang concentrated on the red coloured areas occupied by the communists and the part of China under Japanese control.

Sighing he spoke, "I suppose, I have to sign something?"

Oskar Trautmann laughed. "No, there is no formal peace treaty ready. We don't want to make it a diktat. We need to discuss the finer points between all the parties; us, you and Japan. It would be a significant step towards peace if you send a negotiator as soon as possible

However, we could agree for a cease-fire with the Kuomintang forces. We are close to controlling territory from the Amur to Indochina. If your forces leave this area," Trautmann showed him an area on the map, "We, the German and Japanese Armed Forces, will not carry out further incursions into any part of China. All of continental China would be handed over once there is peace in all theatres worldwide.

The fate of Manchukuo is one of the finer points to be discussed. Considering what could happen, the Reds will use it as a rich staging area once the IJA leaves, there are still quite a few voices in Berlin and Tokyo who argue to keep the region under our control even after the war. Some of my colleagues and I argue for a special statute which would satisfy all sides which is something that would be far easier to talk about, should you and your forces agree to a cease-fire and peace negotiations.

I am sure you heard the term "Continental China". That is right, Formosa will stay Japanese for several reasons and then there is Tsingtao. Following the peace negotiations, Germany will take back control of the Kiautschou territory. Our governments are open to talks about special stipulations for these two territories. I am sure we can come to a positive conclusion.

By the way, to put it crudely, we will not give a fuck about the status of special territories of our enemies, like Hong Kong. So if you take control of those after our forces leave, neither Berlin nor Tokyo will have much to say about it.

Oh, before I forget! Even if we come to close to signing a treaty, we need transit and basing rights for our forces in these areas in your territory. The Reds do not fight our forces much and most of their territory is not at the frontlines. They were not heavily involved in the fighting yet. That we can change and this will only be in your favour"

"This is a better deal than what the Allies can give" Rabe added. "You can reunify China and we end the war for you. With our help, the communists will be beaten. Not to mention saving millions of lives and avoiding atrocities like the "Great Leap" or "Cultural Revolution".

Chiang looked again at the map. Then to Wei-Kuo, who just nodded slightly.

The talks were extensive, but eventually, the Germans flew home.

"So what do you think, Wei-Kuo?" Chiang asked his son.

"Father, I think we should accept. The Allies won't provide us with meaningful assistance, even if we win. Before you ask me about the German situation or if this is an elaborate scheme, Father, they showed me things. I believe they come from the future and want peace. The Allies lie to us, not only about the fact that the Germans come from the future but about the war situation too.

The Germans seem to be turning the tide in Europe and they have started to increase assistance to the Japanese. True, the Allies might be able to win, but they have suffered extreme losses on all fronts with the British practically out of the war. I doubt they can force Germany and Japan to an unconditional surrender any time soon.

If we refuse peace the Allies will continue to use us against the Axis in a futile effort, again and again, that will bleed Chinese lives, resources and time. This will weaken us and make us an easier target for Mao. I don't want what happened to China in the other time. Germany's offer is the best opportunity for us to strike and crush Mao and his band of communists."

"Many of your thoughts mirror mine on the topic, my son. So you do think we can trust them? Even when they openly support the Japanese and some of their claims?"

"Yes, father." Wei-Kuo nodded. "They tried to hide it from me, but many things point to the conclusion that the Germans and Japanese are frantically looking for a way out of the war. Anything that does not end in a defeat."

"I fear, you're right, the Allies won't help us as we need. Again. Only when our interests align, we are good enough to help them. Indeed Mao is our foremost enemy, more so considering the current situation. If we carry on as before events might play out in the same manner as before, maybe worse.

With sufficient help and reparations, we could become as powerful as the other China. But we need to be careful. Yes, I think the best course of action would be to accept Germany's deal. We need to get rid of the communists and that's only possible with German and Japanese help. How that goes down with some of our factions and the general population is the big question."

"Wei-Kuo," Chiang continued after making a small pause, "I need you again, not as a soldier, but as a diplomat. You need to talk to them. You need to be my ambassador. You need to make a deal with Berlin and Tokyo and I will prepare everything to fight the communists."

His son just nodded. For Chiang night was short. He needed to act very carefully. He needed time to prepare for the final fight against the commies. Even more, he needed the time to prepare his men for the change in direction.
 
I am sure you heard the term "Continental China". That is right, Formosa will stay Japanese for several reasons and then there is Tsingtao. Following the peace negotiations, Germany will take back control of the Kiautschou territory. Our governments are open to talks about special stipulations for these two territories. I am sure we can come to a positive conclusion.

A place for a german airport/submarine base? The former assuming they can work out the diplomacy of a permanent airbridge there. The latter should allow intelligence missions and the threat of commerce raiding to be projected to the US East Coast.

I would say naval base too, except in order to get a significant fleet there when needed, they'd basically have to do a repeat of the Second Pacific Squadron. You never go full Second Pacific Squadron.

Although...
The Antarctic is as-yet unclaimed, come to think. Assuming Germany can act quickly post-war to secure territory before the US can manage to interfere, and that kind of expedition becomes almost barely feasible. Of the adjacent states, from a cursory look Chile might be convinced to back this, and Australia is in enough of a diplomatic flux that they might be broken away from Britain. South Africa at this point is possibly too loyal to break away from Britain, plus Apartheid's going strong too. Argentina at the moment is nominally neutral with strong economic ties to Britain and the US, but at the same time politically highly unstable.
 
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Well, it looks like the Chinese are going to start looking for peace, it will be difficult because of their aversion to Japan, but Germany can get a good peace treaty if it promises to help China after the war.

something I forgot, the waffen ss had some divisions that were made up of foreigners, what happened to those troops, were they sent home or joined the regular army.
 
Chiang sees the Commies as enemy no. 1. Even more so now.

The foreign soldiers in the Waffen-SS were partly put into the 13th army (penal army) if they had conducted war crimes or were involved in them, or they were given the possibility to fight on, as regular German soldiers. The German government was clear, that after the war many would face problems at home. So they were dealt like German SS soldiers.
 
Yeah, at the end of the day, Jiang's only non-negotiable point with the Japanese was they get the fuck out of Continental China. He never really pushed for Formosa until the Allies agreed to make unconditional surrender a policy point, as he knew a) he didn't have a navy worth calling one, and b) without a navy worth calling one, there's no way he could have forced the Japanese to hand over Formosa.

And while I personally think Manchukuo would remain a sour point, Jiang would rather bite his tongue and swallow the bile and compromise over it than see the IJA withdraw only for Mao to step in and turn Manchuria into a base of operations from which to conquer China. Not to mention, the Americans even at this point already saw Jiang as an Oriental Mussolini useful only to tie down millions of Japanese troops, and as history shows, abandoned him to be forced out of China, leaving him no choice but to become an American puppet on Taiwan.

In short, staying with the Allies is like biting into a poisoned apple. Making a deal with Germany and Japan is a bitter drink, but at least they won't screw Jiang over for Mao. The Japanese hate the Communists, and so long as they get to save some face and keep their islands then that's enough for them.
 
So how does joint Japanese-Chinese (RoC) suzerainty over Manchukuo sound for the time period until Mao's threat has been crushed and significant pockets of Chinese communists are rooted out?

Afterwards, Manchukuo could simply be an autonomous region of the Republic of China with full integration taking place gradually over a period of several decades perhaps.
 
Yeah, at the end of the day, Jiang's only non-negotiable point with the Japanese was they get the fuck out of Continental China. He never really pushed for Formosa until the Allies agreed to make unconditional surrender a policy point, as he knew a) he didn't have a navy worth calling one, and b) without a navy worth calling one, there's no way he could have forced the Japanese to hand over Formosa.

And while I personally think Manchukuo would remain a sour point, Jiang would rather bite his tongue and swallow the bile and compromise over it than see the IJA withdraw only for Mao to step in and turn Manchuria into a base of operations from which to conquer China. Not to mention, the Americans even at this point already saw Jiang as an Oriental Mussolini useful only to tie down millions of Japanese troops, and as history shows, abandoned him to be forced out of China, leaving him no choice but to become an American puppet on Taiwan.

In short, staying with the Allies is like biting into a poisoned apple. Making a deal with Germany and Japan is a bitter drink, but at least they won't screw Jiang over for Mao. The Japanese hate the Communists, and so long as they get to save some face and keep their islands then that's enough for them.
Hi! You make some very good points on the situation. Formosa has been Japanese at that point in time for roughly half a century and they feel quite at home there. And right now in Walküre-TL the IJN is still a potent fighting force, they have not had defeats yet they cannot recover from. They might be knocked on, but not knocked out, same for the Army, which is in an even better position. With the Japanese forces still in the fight, Chiang knows any claims on Formosa cannot succeed without allied or German help.
There are a couple of reasons I see why UT Germany too is backing the Japanese on Formosa. Formosa is both one of the first gains of modern Japan and an important food producer for the Home Islands. Keeping it will not only save a lot of face and up support of the Tenno, Suzuki and later Shidehara, Yoshida, Hatoyama´s new political course among the hardliners, but an important spot of future agriculture and industry for Japan.
One of the reasons for Japan´s aggressive expansion was the situation on the home Islands. Japan has few raw ressources it does not already use/mine and while they have fertile soil, the land is very mountainous. So as long as you cannot somehow convince chamois to do farming, the Japanese are strongly curtailed where they can grow food. Keeping Formosa is important for Japan, that is clear for Berlin as well. If the Axis powers survive the War, that will be a major turning point in future development for them. Additionally Formosa likewise is an important base for the Axis Forces and future power projection, if they can get a peace that leaves them somewhat intact.

A special status (especially when it comes to raw materials for the Axis and trade, I presume) of Manchukuo and Tsingtao might taste bitter for Chiang and his people, but that is something mostly temporary and maybe even useful in the future for him. We cannot forget, while Chiang and Koumintang guess correctly that the Axis desperately wants out of the War without losing much, they don´t know the inner workings of them. The absolute worst scenario for Chiang is that Mao and the Axis survive the War with the Japanese still in full control of Eastern China. With a theoretically somewhat victorious Axis pact, the Chinese forces would have no chance to dislodge the Japanese.
And Chiang is intelligent enough to theorise that the general situation can change soon. At the moment the UT-Germans urge the Japanese to compromise with China, due to their future sensibilities. But what would happen if Germany faced a major setback or a quickly rising blood toll due to allied no holds barred offensives? It is one thing to blabber about freedom, rights and milk and honey from a wingchair and another if your enemies force you to live in a bunker or otherwise hunt you. There are scenarios which could change the outlook of the UT-Germans to an "all in and screw the allies". Should something like this happen before Chiang has his treaty with German and Japan, he could face less compromising negotiations with the Germans backing far more and larger claims of Japan.
So it is in his interest too to get a fast treaty, not only against Mao, but before there might be a change in the stance of the Axis.
 
I would say naval base too, except in order to get a significant fleet there when needed, they'd basically have to do a repeat of the Second Pacific Squadron. You never go full Second Pacific Squadron.
Interesting point! But in theory, if Germany and Japan survive the War halfway intact, so their claims stick, Berlin can send a new "Second Pacific Squadron" to Tsingtao. Unlike WW1, the German Squadron can drop anchor at Japanese bases now too.
 
Interesting point! But in theory, if Germany and Japan survive the War halfway intact, so their claims stick, Berlin can send a new "Second Pacific Squadron" to Tsingtao. Unlike WW1, the German Squadron can drop anchor at Japanese bases now too.

Will that help? I don't think Japan will have any bases beyond the South-East Pacific, post war. With Panama certainly closed to any german warships, and assuming Britain keeps Suez closed likewise (if there's not any huge upset like the US backstabbing Britain after a british surrender), I don't think that'll make much of a difference when any german expedition would have to go around one of the capes, not without either another allied country or something like a german antarctic colony to serve as stopover.
And like I said, unless a sizeable fleet can be permanently stationed in Tsingtao (expensive when a fleet-in-being will be needed in the Atlantic!), getting one there in a hurry in case of an imminent conflict is going to be difficult even then.
 
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