Magna Graecia: Titanomachia (A City State Quest)

[PyroTechno]

You didn't notice and correct Skippy's one throwaway line immediately. By the Ninth Law of Quest Thread Derailment, Ausculos is now canonically an old man, regardless of any previous characterization.

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What are the other eight?

 

[Kipeci]

So the Military Reforms don't count because you don't know what they are yet? Also you'd rather have an organised aggressive Kingdom on your Flank then the occasional raid? We've seen the Eteuscans who are historically the most unlucky people of the period get trashed, the Kymaians get overwhelmed due to great numbers of a migrating populace, poor luck and bad battlefield choice. And then hold out for years under siege. Note they had lesser numbered than we can call upon, with lesser cavalry and skirmishers, the Brutti also backed down when Thurii got serious.

Next the Dauni have not done any major movements or suffered any major raids for a great deal of time, there have been periods when they've been raided, but if you recall the stealing of the sheep by the Peuketti, you'll recall that the Samnites and those other Interior tribes are not the only raiders around.

In essence, you make a big deal of having Interior tribesman as neighbours for our Vassals, when we've had Interior Tribesmen, the Lucani, the brothers of the Samnites, on our Vassal borders for decades and have actively raided and stole from them, with no retaliation.

Overall, you've massively overblown this, equivocating occasional raids and disorganised opportunistic strikes with a Monarch who wants to march an army of thousands into our borders when he gets the first sign of weakness.

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I don't currently count the military reforms because we haven't actually undertaken them and whenever we do they might be optimized to face other foes when we do depending on however the vote swings. For example, (and I'm not saying our reforms would go near this far) both the manipular legions of the Romans and the Macedonian phalanx were evolutions of hoplite warfare that were very successful adaptations to the particular problems that both states faced. Either sort of route or whatever else we come up with could be incredibly beneficial depending on how we'd use them against whom, but for the particular context of fighting the Samnites it is possible that a reform could hurt us or help us depending on what it actually does. As such I'd rather not count the chicks before they're hatched and commit to war with the Dauni and a border with the Samnites before we even know if we're doing a reform and if so in what way.

Yes, I would rather see the Dauni on our northern frontier than the Samnites. The Dauni are weak against our military, vulnerable to internal tensions that we can exploit and we work off a similar agricultural framework which means that they can't just take to the hills and ignore us until we either happen upon an ideal spot for ambush or have to leave; they don't also build up surges of competent warriors that roll out and crush a half dozen major cities every few generations, as exactly happened with the Etruscans and Kymai. Say what you like about how they were less competent than we would have been, but they wouldn't have been in such a danger were they to be facing against the Dauni.

The Lucanians are a huge threat, it's just that they've been focused in other directions. For example, the Oenotrians. See the spot on the map where the Bruttii are? The Bruttii weren't there in the last quest. That's something that you can thank the Lucanians for, and from the words of the first update on them it seems that they were still shifting their numbers over to the Bruttii sort of like how we would create a new colony from our excess population. Recently we saw a night attack that capitalized on a bit of civil disorder to topple Poseidonia. Frankly I'm in quite a bit of fear of them even though we have a strong buffer state between us and they're surrounded by actual or potential allies of ours, neither of which would be the case if we set the Dauni on fire and set up shop there. Just because we might be able to handle the Lucanians with all that other help does not mean that we should also slap the Samnites on top of that intimidating pile.

How many cities and entire factions do Oscan peoples need to eliminate before you'll recognize them as a threat somewhat beyond the Dauni who have done almost nothing but lose ground since they were first organized?

You're right, the Samnites don't act like the Dauni, they don't have long term political strategy, they don't have mustered armies that march whenever the King points them at a target.

And that's why the Samnites aren't as much of a threat at the moment unless we deliberately go after them.

The Samnites send out invading forces when they want to send excess people to settle, at least, that's what they did with Kymai. Otherwise it's singular chieftains with perhaps a thousand or so troops or small raiding bands. They don't wait until your weakest point to try and send their organised planned assault at you, they don't have war goals they've picked out long in advance. And that's why they're far less dangerous at the moment.

Especially as their next major migrations and expansions won't be for years and years yet.

Lastly, for someone who rants and raves about the might of the Samnites, to think that the Dauni could stop the scenario you mentioned previously, weaken them enough on their own to ensure an Eretria that went naval focussed (and you yourself proudly speak of how you advocate for such) could push them out of the Dauni Kingdom?

If the Samnites are the threat you claim, instead of the threat they actually are, then we'd lose that fight.

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This was a planned invasion on their behalf. They may not have a united king who organized it, but evidently they didn't need one. They and their elders looked around for weakness, found it, planned and excellently executed an invasion, the results of which speak for themselves. I don't want to introduce weakness on the Dauni border to draw their attentions for their next target.

As it stands, the Dauni have border fortifications in place to make them a much harder target against the Samnites, and have a high population in the local area swollen from years of peace. This makes them a less attractive target. If however we invade them, particularly if we are harsher against the northern cities that are in greater favor of the king's actions (in part because they are used to fund northern fortifications at southern expense), then we destroy local defenses, kill and maim warriors and take others as serfs. They are opportunistic people; just as a local chief found it suitable to take Poseidonia as strife appeared, the Samnites may easily be tempted by our laying waste to the Dauni.

What matters more is the appearance of strength on the ground, as that's where the Samnites are looking. It's much like closing and locking a door; a burglar may easily surpass it if they so choose, but it's easier to go through the option of the open door if available. Let's not make the Dauni the relative open door of their neighbors, as whoever they invade is liable to have a terrible time. Should it come to war, we will have to hope that we are capable of cutting them off from the hills (maybe with some expeditious use of the navy or cavalry?) and fight them on terrain favorable to our form of war; otherwise, it will be disaster. I have little faith that our unreformed hoplites or unexpanded professionals are able to take them on, seeing the failures of so many others before us. I'm not against taking an Exoria or Antipatrid option to shore these up when reform is on the table and other stuff higher priority to me is out of the way, as I've said.

Actually no, you'll note I mention raids, and damage, I don't think the Dauni could conquer us outright, but I truly believe that they are a knife waiting for our back to become vulnerable. If they sense a moment of weakness they will cause massive damage, especially if we are engaged against another enemy in a major war, as I have repeatedly stressed.

Next you speak about us beating them so easily before that they shouldn't be an issue, note, we had Taras and other city states on our side often during that time, and Iapgyian tactics were a desperate attempt to mimic Greek heavy infinity with no experience, later they switched to cavalry and skirmished focuses which brought us to the closest we have ever come to defeat. We have adapted now, we hold the numbers, have experienced cavalry and skirmishers of our own, men on the inside, we could easily win, however, they can do massive damage to our land whilst we are focussed on another war.

You talk about fortified cities, but for someone who loves to talk about the dangers of raiders, you also blatantly ignore the fields and peoples who would be left outside of the city, our people would not continue to fight a separate war, when their homes were aflame. Which is a major risk.

We can crush them in a one on one war, but if our backs are turned, they will hurt us.

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Which major enemy and major war do you foresee us undertaking? Let's go by every hegemon or regional power listed in the State of the Mediterranean.

Laikadaimon: Far overseas land power with not much navy and poor relations with the power ruling the seas.
Athenai: We're actively pursuing even better relations with them at this moment and are actively supplying them essential grain.
Persian Empire: Separated from us by an entire Greece's worth of problems and then some.
Carthage: Embroiled in war and are separated from us by a mess of hugely empowered Greek states in Sicily as well as the Italiotes, also has no particular problem with us. I think this is the most likely war to get called into way in the future whenever they finish the war if the Sikeliotes push the envelope, but even so the number of forces we could bring out is limited by our navy and we wouldn't be lacking for allies if they're what called us in. We ought to be able to handle the Dauni at home.
Odryssian Thrace: Land power north of Hellas with what appears to be all of one port on the opposite side of the Hellespont from us (which is itself quite far), and no reason to be displeased with us.

Korinthos: Scary naval power that Athenai whom we're attempting to cozy up with can intimidate into irrelevance, and although they have a lot of ships they could only bring to bear a fraction of their land forces upon it using all of it and even then only at staggering cost. They can certainly screw up our ties to our league if not held in check by our expanded navy nor Athenai but they don't really have the transport capacity to challenge us on our land which limits the help they can provide the Dauni. And we are taking actions to mitigate this through the increased navy and better ties with Athens.
Thebai: Overseas land power aligned against Athens, this does not bode well for their navy. I can't see a particular reason for them to launch an expedition here, either.
Taras: We buried the hatchet with their influential peace faction which is crushing the opposition with the prosperity they've brought in. So long as we don't do anything stupid to upset them like ruining their trade ties, we ought to be good here.

Syrakousai: Strong city that hates us, but constrained by local rivals as a land power. It made a disastrous showing diplomatically, and lost some of its finest in a war that benefited it least of every Sikeliote city.
Akragas: Ally of Syrakousai, tensions put on display at conference. Expanding.
Gela: Moved away from alliance with Syrakousai for more independent stance.
Selinous: Embarrassed at conference by allies of Syrakousai, tends to avoid power games anyway.
Rhegion: Friendly to us and against Syrakousai, quite likely to profit at western Lokri's expense while Syrakousai is distracted.
Himera: Liable to do quite some expansion, allied to our ally and hates Syrakousai.
Sikeliote League: Massive expansion to occur at Sikel expense, our ally and hates Syrakousai.

Metapontion: Neutral, no real problem except if we start getting maniacal about an Italiote League.
Lokri Epixephyrii: A weak and isolated city surrounded by enemies, our allies.
Krotone: An ally.
Thurii: An ally.

We're in a pretty good spot diplomatically, or where we're not we're working on making that to be a better case ASAP. We're particularly secure within Italy itself, apart from the Oscan barbaroi. In particular there are few powers with any sense of rapport with the Dauni to ally with them and distract our attentions on land.

I was echoing your own words because you explicitly said "We could very easily conquer the Dauni" in the post I was replying to, and now you take issue with them when they're coming from me. I think that they'll be a pain to take, but one that we would take eventually. I don't think that it's worth the bother, particularly not if we end up bordering Samnites for the trouble after having freshly weakened the Dauni.

So you would have the enemy with less overall potential, but still very able to cause major harm if they get the opportunity, live beside you, instead of an enemy who is far less likely to attack in an organised manner anytime soon?

You would claim we can swoop in and save the Dauni if they were at war, yet they have been our enemy for a very long time, and nearly declared war on us recently, there is no way we would be allowed to march off to aid someone we have no positive history with in the manner you are suggesting, again, at best we could annex and conquer strips of their territory, which would destroy the purpose of having a barrier against the Samnites as you desire anyway, and also leave us with less tribute and a less secure hold on the salt sources.

And yes, we are not limited in expansion options overly, however, it must certainly be noted that the Dauni are a major opportunity to gather coin, via tribute and salt, that would greatly help in defending our expansion, especially as ever seen how much a fleet and larger professional army cost, and especially due to he fact that they will take an opportunity to hurt us majorly if and when they can, which increases in risk as we grow and come into contact with more regions that could explode into violence.

Overall, you have become utterly paranoid about the Samnites, who will not be a threat for a while, you are seeing a dagger that is held by someone miles down the road and allowing someone to hold a real knife to your back right now to try and delay meeting that man. You are refusing Eretria's symbolically important and economically great victories and resources.

Eretria can win this war, I have no doubt about that, the Samnites will not be a problem for a good while, I am sure about that, and denying us tribute and salt in some misguided attempt to defend ourselves with a barrier that wouldn't work? That would only feed the enemy you fear, or bring us into conflict with them anyway? Makes no sense. You are being paranoid about a future that has not occurred and circumstances that haven't, and won't arise for years and years. You're shooting yourself in the foot to make sure you never have to risk getting hurt in combat in several months time.

We still had at least one free slot still in our port, yet it was never filled despite that despite two new trade routes forming. The larger port will help, hell, I voted for it, but the fact of the matter is, Fleets are expensive, Korinthos has one almost twice our size and we need more money fast, tribute is fast money, not only that but Salt is the most lucrative business around for most of the Classical world. If we want to be able to field our whole strength, without getting tangled with Athens, which would lead to our destruction, trusting Athens or getting too close to them is a death sentence from Sparta of Athens itself, then in the mid to long term, the Dauni conquest would greatly aid us.

I'm not saying it's a cure all, but it gets rid of a legitimate problem, boosts our revenue mid to long term and doesn't have a real, immediate reason not to aside from fear of a war we can and will win in a one on one, and the very much currently overblown fear of the Samnites

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Oscans have destroyed the southern Etruscans, the Kymaians, the Oenotrians, all neighbors within the past few decades. They've peeled away cities and land, expanding and growing strong. All the Dauni have managed in the same timeframe is to hold onto what they've had, managing a general annoyance at worst with their only attempt at any sort of invasion having become a farce when we threatened to immediately instigate a civil war if they did so. I know which I'd rather have on my border.

The point of not destroying them is to make them a less viable target in the first place while other weak Italians are around. It's like being chased by a bear with your friends- you don't have to be strong enough to fight it off to not get eaten, just faster than your slowest pal. If it does come to war then we're going to be in a bad spot regardless, but should it reach that point it is better for the Samnites to have tired themselves against a strong Dauni and their fortifications and be startled by a fresh Eretria than the reverse situation.

Tribute gives us very minimal money, particularly in light of all the other actions it takes to even get any of it. Salt would also require a sizable investment to get started, assuming we even directly controlled it and not that it had been flopped over with the pre-existing city. If the matter is getting rich quick, the Drakonid faction is quite likely to make use of the massive harbor they invested so much in opening up, and they aren't demanding another expensive war and huge upfront investment before their ideas are at all viable.

 

[Arcus]

Yes, they are so uncivilised that they surely won't be interested in trade.

Bunch decentralized sheep herders need serious vendetta against you to mount an invasion.

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>Decentralized sheep herders keep on being a nuisance due to raids
>Populace becomes discontent with continuing raids, demands some sort of action be taken
>Send out a punitive expedition to retaliate against raiders
>???
>Military disaster happens
>Sheep herders are now invading in retaliation for your invasion and because they smell weakness

 

[Star]

>Decentralized sheep herders keep on being a nuisance due to raids
>Populace becomes discontent with continuing raids, demands some sort of action be taken
>Send out a punitive expedition to retaliate against raiders
>???
>Military disaster happens
>Sheep herders are now invading in retaliation for your invasion and because they smell weakness

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If things are like that it all makes sense.

>Decentralized sheep herders keep on being a nuisance due to raids
>King of Dauni retaliates
> Shepherd herders conquer Dauni
> Now they are on our border

>Decentralized sheep herders keep on being a nuisance due to raids
>Populace becomes discontent with continuing raids, demands some sort of action be taken
>Send out a punitive expedition to retaliate against raiders
>???
>Military disaster happens
>Sheep herders are now invading in retaliation for your invasion and because they smell weakness

>>> >Sheep herders conquer the world

 

[Arcus]

If things are like that it all makes sense.

>Decentralized sheep herders keep on being a nuisance due to raids
>King of Dauni retaliates
> Shepherd herders conquer Dauni
> Now they are on our border

>Decentralized sheep herders keep on being a nuisance due to raids
>Populace becomes discontent with continuing raids, demands some sort of action be taken
>Send out a punitive expedition to retaliate against raiders
>???
>Military disaster happens
>Sheep herders are now invading in retaliation for your invasion and because they smell weakness

>>> Shepherd herders conquer the world

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Wrong, the Dauni are very unlikely to launch punitive counter invasions because they're sandwiched between two threats and if they do that's a great invitation for us to come in and wreck their shit. Instead they've spent a lot of money and effort investing in fortifications to deter raids, and frankly I'm quite happy to let them keep doing that.

In any case, that was just supposed to be an illustration of how no, they don't actually need a serious vendetta against us to mount a serious invasion; in fact if we actually successfully pulled off the sort of shit that might give them cause for a vendetta (like slaughtering a large portion of their populace in a punitive expedition), that would deter them, not the other way around.

 

[Star]

Wrong, the Dauni are very unlikely to launch punitive counter invasions against the Samnites because they're sandwiched between two threats and if they do that's a great invitation for us to come in and wreck their shit. Instead they've spent a lot of money and effort investing in fortifications to deter raids, and frankly I'm quite happy to let them keep doing that.

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Just like they will never think of trying to invade us when we are busy somewhere else.

 

[Arcus]

Just like they will never think of trying to invade us when we are busy somewhere else.

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Okay, let me put it this way then. If the Dauni do get rolled by their neighbours, at least it's not happening to us, and in fact we would probably want to swoop in at that point, dangle the sweet offer protection if they become our vassals, and then drive their attackers out. It's not like nomads are invincible or somehting; it's just that they're decentralised and not tied down to any fixed locations, so if we go into their lands the likely outcome of that is that we'll get lost chasing after shadows and then get ambushed because the defenders have superior knowledge of the terrain. If we're just driving them out of the Dauni kingdom? Different story, since the locals will be on our side then.

Also as these guys expand they're very likely going to become more settled; they're certainly not going to conquer the world, certainly not least because they're way to disorganized for that and would inevitably splinter before that happened.

 

[Karugus]

The Dauni have 19,000 tribesmen to call on. Decades of relative peace and fertile lands as well as growing urbanization and irrigation works have done them well.

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Wow. Artahias was really full of shit and mistaken if he thought the Peuketti were the most prosperous Iapygians. That's a monumental gap between what we've seen out of the other two.

But if anything this seems to highlight the fact we need to look for opportunities to knock the Dauni down some pegs. Outright invasion maybe not, but peeling off cities through trade or bribes? Hunting for fractures wherever we can find them? Because with a pool of well over ten thousand potential soldiers to call on the Dauni are very much capable of threatening the countryside if our muster is split, and even our full muster is vulnerable to being defeated in detail and losing any chance of a fair fight as it assembles.

The Dauni have got to go, no ifs ands or buts. Maybe not now, but we have got to arrest their development sooner than later because the fact the Dauni are still competitive with us, after subjugating her sister peoples, drawing on Greek allies, and importing a massive amount of manpower is untenable. It's no longer a case of greatest gain with least loss but vital security of Eretria.

 

[Spacegnom]

Wow. Artahias was really full of shit and mistaken if he thought the Peuketti were the most prosperous Iapygians. That's a monumental gap between what we've seen out of the other two.

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To me "prosperous" would be measured in the ancient equivalent of GDP per captia not total population. That said, I was also surprised by the revealed demographic strength the Dauni seem to possess.

What worries me the most about that, is how difficult it would be to keep 19,000 Dauni tribesmen (or 30,000 able bodied Iapygians men in total) under control. In my view we will need to secure near absolute loyalty from our current barbaroi tributaries before we start adding even more.

 

[Karugus]

To me "prosperous" would be measured in the ancient equivalent of GDP per captia not total population. That said, I was also surprised by the revealed demographic strength the Dauni seem to possess.

What worries me the most about that, is how difficult it would be to keep 19,000 Dauni tribesmen (or 30,000 able bodied Iapygians men in total) under control. In my view we will need to secure near absolute loyalty from our current barbaroi tributaries before we start adding even more.

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That would be a case of making tribute light enough to not be onerous for them and offering them new opportunies as a result. The Saltworks at Salapia would make the region wealthier, and if they've been urbanizing and irrigating this whole time they probably have an excess of grain or agricultural products we can serve as the middleman for.

Combine that with introducing more specie, sea silk, and other goods and we can prevail upon the wealthy urban elite to back us (who likely are becoming increasingly powerful as the Dauni urbanize). It's not just a function of the discrepancy in size, but how well we can bind the local authorities to us. But I would absolutely not appoint a Dauni King for a long while if ever.

 

[phil03]

Ausculos is worth watching, but he is not some kind of dire threat to Eretria. We've already seen what happens when he tries to exploit us being at war with a major power, and we pretty much destroyed his ambitions just by peeling two cities off of his coalition. He is an old man who may die relatively soon without a clear successor, and he is widely disliked by his own people. We are also not likely to be in a major land war for the foreseeable future, unless it's to save the Dauni from the Samnites.

The idea that we need to preemptively stage an invasion of the Dauni because Ausculos might be able to put together a ramshackle coalition to raid some Epulian olive groves before our retribution falls on him like the wroth of Olympos is just genuinely odd.

It goes on the list of the other bizarre things a portion this Quest has convinced itself of for a few pages, before Cetash pours cold water on it or we move onto the next thing and it is quickly forgotten.

Straight up, in terms of basic strategy, if you want to subjugate the Dauni, an invasion has a large number of risks and costs versus the obvious strategy of fracturing the Dauni coalition over time through trade and befriending individual cities, with maybe a short war against whatever holdouts remain. We have most of the cards here, so it is actively disadvantageous to take unnecessary risks. Divide and conquer is a classic for a reason.

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I don't think anybody as seriously argued that Ausculos is in any way a vital threat. What has, indeed, been argued is that he is a threat that is probably looking for an opportunity to hurt us and that we can't simply assume that because we where able to stop him in his gear next time simply because we have been able to do so when we faced Taras isn't a safe bet, especially if we essentially give him free reins to shore up internally.

Granted, they're is no big landwar on the horizon but things change in sometime unforseenways. For example, if the Eretrian of the early days had been told they would eventually fight a war against Taras to prevent them from subjugating the Messapii they would probably have been pretty surprised...

I would rather eliminate a clear risk of having to fight a war on two fronts, also a classic but one on the ''not to do'' list instead, as soon as reasonably possible.

To be sure, I agreed the we don't need to drop anything to deal with the matter but continuing to not do so if we have further occasion seem needlessly imprudent and, TBH, I do feel that assuming Ausculos will simply let us go on with a divide and conquer stratey strike me as a bit odd, especially since he has proven willing to aleniate some of his subjects by sabotaging their economy to prevent them from doing commerce with us.

Besside, and for what's its worth this was in Memnon platform for reelection in OL 349, the last time we had a vote where truly ambitious foreign policy proposals outside of Kimai where in the picture:

• Military Mission: For decades the Dauni have sat on the border of the Epulian League and menaced our allies with raids and skirmishes. Their kings have plotted against us, warred with us, and allied against us many times. Now, the time has come to pay back the debt they have bestowed upon us by destroying them once and for all. The xenoparakletor will rally the cities of Herdonia, Salapia, and whatever other cities would be willing, and back them in a rebellion that seeks to overthrow King Ausculos and end the Dauni as a threat. Whether that will be through annexing the rest of the cities or simply replacing their leadership with something more amenable to Eretria remains to be seen, but the Dauni must be made to never again threaten the city of Eretria Eskhata [War against the Dauni with attendant strategos options].

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Now, of course the Exoria is obviously partly pushing its pet issues here, like any other Demes during an election, but that doesn't mean his concerns aren't genuine and we should dismiss them anymore that, say, the Drakonids pushing their own preocupations when it came to the Liburnians or the Antipatrids doing so on Sicily necessarely meant their reasonings on those fronts where wrong.

Certainly, the fact that one of the three parties has ran a platform with those preocupations as its central planks raise them above the mere od OOC concerns that don't make sense in context you portray them to be.

I don't currently count the military reforms because we haven't actually undertaken them and whenever we do they might be optimized to face other foes when we do depending on however the vote swings. For example, (and I'm not saying our reforms would go near this far) both the manipular legions of the Romans and the Macedonian phalanx were evolutions of hoplite warfare that were very successful adaptations to the particular problems that both states faced. Either sort of route or whatever else we come up with could be incredibly beneficial depending on how we'd use them against whom, but for the particular context of fighting the Samnites it is possible that a reform could hurt us or help us depending on what it actually does. As such I'd rather not count the chicks before they're hatched and commit to war with the Dauni and a border with the Samnites before we even know if we're doing a reform and if so in what way.

Yes, I would rather see the Dauni on our northern frontier than the Samnites. The Dauni are weak against our military, vulnerable to internal tensions that we can exploit and we work off a similar agricultural framework which means that they can't just take to the hills and ignore us until we either happen upon an ideal spot for ambush or have to leave; they don't also build up surges of competent warriors that roll out and crush a half dozen major cities every few generations, as exactly happened with the Etruscans and Kymai. Say what you like about how they were less competent than we would have been, but they wouldn't have been in such a danger were they to be facing against the Dauni.

The Lucanians are a huge threat, it's just that they've been focused in other directions. For example, the Oenotrians. See the spot on the map where the Bruttii are? The Bruttii weren't there in the last quest. That's something that you can thank the Lucanians for, and from the words of the first update on them it seems that they were still shifting their numbers over to the Bruttii sort of like how we would create a new colony from our excess population. Recently we saw a night attack that capitalized on a bit of civil disorder to topple Poseidonia. Frankly I'm in quite a bit of fear of them even though we have a strong buffer state between us and they're surrounded by actual or potential allies of ours, neither of which would be the case if we set the Dauni on fire and set up shop there. Just because we might be able to handle the Lucanians with all that other help does not mean that we should also slap the Samnites on top of that intimidating pile.

How many cities and entire factions do Oscan peoples need to eliminate before you'll recognize them as a threat somewhat beyond the Dauni who have done almost nothing but lose ground since they were first organized?

This was a planned invasion on their behalf. They may not have a united king who organized it, but evidently they didn't need one. They and their elders looked around for weakness, found it, planned and excellently executed an invasion, the results of which speak for themselves. I don't want to introduce weakness on the Dauni border to draw their attentions for their next target.

As it stands, the Dauni have border fortifications in place to make them a much harder target against the Samnites, and have a high population in the local area swollen from years of peace. This makes them a less attractive target. If however we invade them, particularly if we are harsher against the northern cities that are in greater favor of the king's actions (in part because they are used to fund northern fortifications at southern expense), then we destroy local defenses, kill and maim warriors and take others as serfs. They are opportunistic people; just as a local chief found it suitable to take Poseidonia as strife appeared, the Samnites may easily be tempted by our laying waste to the Dauni.

What matters more is the appearance of strength on the ground, as that's where the Samnites are looking. It's much like closing and locking a door; a burglar may easily surpass it if they so choose, but it's easier to go through the option of the open door if available. Let's not make the Dauni the relative open door of their neighbors, as whoever they invade is liable to have a terrible time. Should it come to war, we will have to hope that we are capable of cutting them off from the hills (maybe with some expeditious use of the navy or cavalry?) and fight them on terrain favorable to our form of war; otherwise, it will be disaster. I have little faith that our unreformed hoplites or unexpanded professionals are able to take them on, seeing the failures of so many others before us. I'm not against taking an Exoria or Antipatrid option to shore these up when reform is on the table and other stuff higher priority to me is out of the way, as I've said.

Oscans have destroyed the southern Etruscans, the Kymaians, the Oenotrians, all neighbors within the past few decades. They've peeled away cities and land, expanding and growing strong. All the Dauni have managed in the same timeframe is to hold onto what they've had, managing a general annoyance at worst with their only attempt at any sort of invasion having become a farce when we threatened to immediately instigate a civil war if they did so. I know which I'd rather have on my border.

The point of not destroying them is to make them a less viable target in the first place while other weak Italians are around. It's like being chased by a bear with your friends- you don't have to be strong enough to fight it off to not get eaten, just faster than your slowest pal. If it does come to war then we're going to be in a bad spot regardless, but should it reach that point it is better for the Samnites to have tired themselves against a strong Dauni and their fortifications and be startled by a fresh Eretria than the reverse situation.

Tribute gives us very minimal money, particularly in light of all the other actions it takes to even get any of it. Salt would also require a sizable investment to get started, assuming we even directly controlled it and not that it had been flopped over with the pre-existing city. If the matter is getting rich quick, the Drakonid faction is quite likely to make use of the massive harbor they invested so much in opening up, and they aren't demanding another expensive war and huge upfront investment before their ideas are at all viable.

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Regarding the Lucanians, the map was changed multiple times to fit new information gathered by the QM so the Brutii being there can as easily be simply an edditorial change then a conquest of the Oenotrians and it isn't like Poseidonia is such a massive city either...

As to our style of warfare, the only indication we got that the Samnites are especially well adapted to deal with it would be their victory against the Kymaians, and they enjoyed a massive numerical superiority at any rates.

Last but not least, and it is something those fearing the Samnites here have continuously failed to adress, we got cannonical material explaining why the Samnites have gone to war in Campania and such material make it pretty clear that the reasons they had are now gone for the forseable future. I wouldn't consider past-raids against the Dauni as much of an indication to the contrary since those where launched where back in the first game, and the scene has simply changed beyond recognition since then.

That would be a case of making tribute light enough to not be onerous for them and offering them new opportunies as a result. The Saltworks at Salapia would make the region wealthier, and if they've been urbanizing and irrigating this whole time they probably have an excess of grain or agricultural products we can serve as the middleman for.

Combine that with introducing more specie, sea silk, and other goods and we can prevail upon the wealthy urban elite to back us (who likely are becoming increasingly powerful as the Dauni urbanize). It's not just a function of the discrepancy in size, but how well we can bind the local authorities to us. But I would absolutely not appoint a Dauni King for a long while if ever.

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For what it's worth the Demos Exoria option at the begining of the game had them being balkanised after the conquest too.

 

[McLuvin]

Yes, actually. Organized polities can be negotiated with. A bunch of decentralized sheep herders won't be persuaded to stop raiding by any methods short of physical violence.

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So, the King who has made it abundantly clear he wants to hurt us, a King known for his political skills, ruthlessness and who's dynasty was built upon the back of opposing Eretria, can be negotiated with to make them more friendly and less dangerous than the occasional raid?

Please note we've not had to go to war with the Lucani, who are on our border and we've actually raided ourselves. So you're 'sheep herders conquer the world' hypotheses, doesn't look like its up to snuff.

To me "prosperous" would be measured in the ancient equivalent of GDP per captia not total population. That said, I was also surprised by the revealed demographic strength the Dauni seem to possess.

What worries me the most about that, is how difficult it would be to keep 19,000 Dauni tribesmen (or 30,000 able bodied Iapygians men in total) under control. In my view we will need to secure near absolute loyalty from our current barbaroi tributaries before we start adding even more.

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Note 4000 of them want to be conquered.

I don't currently count the military reforms because we haven't actually undertaken them and whenever we do they might be optimized to face other foes when we do depending on however the vote swings. For example, (and I'm not saying our reforms would go near this far) both the manipular legions of the Romans and the Macedonian phalanx were evolutions of hoplite warfare that were very successful adaptations to the particular problems that both states faced. Either sort of route or whatever else we come up with could be incredibly beneficial depending on how we'd use them against whom, but for the particular context of fighting the Samnites it is possible that a reform could hurt us or help us depending on what it actually does. As such I'd rather not count the chicks before they're hatched and commit to war with the Dauni and a border with the Samnites before we even know if we're doing a reform and if so in what way.

Yes, I would rather see the Dauni on our northern frontier than the Samnites. The Dauni are weak against our military, vulnerable to internal tensions that we can exploit and we work off a similar agricultural framework which means that they can't just take to the hills and ignore us until we either happen upon an ideal spot for ambush or have to leave; they don't also build up surges of competent warriors that roll out and crush a half dozen major cities every few generations, as exactly happened with the Etruscans and Kymai. Say what you like about how they were less competent than we would have been, but they wouldn't have been in such a danger were they to be facing against the Dauni.

The Lucanians are a huge threat, it's just that they've been focused in other directions. For example, the Oenotrians. See the spot on the map where the Bruttii are? The Bruttii weren't there in the last quest. That's something that you can thank the Lucanians for, and from the words of the first update on them it seems that they were still shifting their numbers over to the Bruttii sort of like how we would create a new colony from our excess population. Recently we saw a night attack that capitalized on a bit of civil disorder to topple Poseidonia. Frankly I'm in quite a bit of fear of them even though we have a strong buffer state between us and they're surrounded by actual or potential allies of ours, neither of which would be the case if we set the Dauni on fire and set up shop there. Just because we might be able to handle the Lucanians with all that other help does not mean that we should also slap the Samnites on top of that intimidating pile.

How many cities and entire factions do Oscan peoples need to eliminate before you'll recognize them as a threat somewhat beyond the Dauni who have done almost nothing but lose ground since they were first organized?

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You don't count the Military reform, despite not knowing what it is, because it might not be applicable, yet here was your opening statement

we have no hoplite reform or other applicable military reform, and we've repeatedly heard that people of our

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The reform is almost definitely Hoplite reform, and the reform to our vassal levy is very much applicable due to the importance those forces would play in a battle against the Samnites. However you spin it, there is something in there that will strengthen our army, and dismissing it completely because you think there might not be, claiming there's 'no reform' at all available, is dead wrong.

Next, your comments on your fear of the Interior tribesman, I don't get it. You yourself admit the Lucani haven't attacked us. You do claim they have 'attention elsewhere' And apparently suffered this strange distraction for several decades but are now a super serious threat despite having no evidence. So I am a bit sceptical about your paranoia.

Using your logic, the Bruttii are also proof that the Lucani and Samnites won't attack us for a good long while, if they already shifted excess population, why the hell would they need to go on another conquering spree? Further, the Bruttii were forced to back down by Thurii alone, a city we are stronger than without our Vassals and League, further hurting your veracity of their 'Mass Faction destroyer' idea.

The Samnites have destroyed two factions, at the most, your doomsaying, your over exaggeration, is too much. The Samnites have already had a mass migration, and if they decide to have another one? The Dauni aren't going to slow them down, if we try and annex cities whilst their being invaded? We'll end up at war with the Samnites anyway. If we stand by and let it happen? we end up with the Samnites on a conquering spree right next to us.

You would rather have the actively malicious current threat, who can and will exploit any sign of weakness to fuck us up, then the faction that really has never given us major trouble for the half a century we've been on Italia, the multiple decades we've had Vassals bordering them.

And that is why your paranoia about possible Samnite invasions out of nowhere, doesn't work. That is why, when you look at the current evidence and historical evidence, it makes me utterly certain that A. If we did use the Dauni as a shield it'd either fall very quick or drag us into a war anyway, or B. The Samnites and Lucani will not attack us for an extended period of time in any actually great numbers.

This was a planned invasion on their behalf. They may not have a united king who organized it, but evidently they didn't need one. They and their elders looked around for weakness, found it, planned and excellently executed an invasion, the results of which speak for themselves. I don't want to introduce weakness on the Dauni border to draw their attentions for their next target.

As it stands, the Dauni have border fortifications in place to make them a much harder target against the Samnites, and have a high population in the local area swollen from years of peace. This makes them a less attractive target. If however we invade them, particularly if we are harsher against the northern cities that are in greater favor of the king's actions (in part because they are used to fund northern fortifications at southern expense), then we destroy local defenses, kill and maim warriors and take others as serfs. They are opportunistic people; just as a local chief found it suitable to take Poseidonia as strife appeared, the Samnites may easily be tempted by our laying waste to the Dauni.

What matters more is the appearance of strength on the ground, as that's where the Samnites are looking. It's much like closing and locking a door; a burglar may easily surpass it if they so choose, but it's easier to go through the option of the open door if available. Let's not make the Dauni the relative open door of their neighbors, as whoever they invade is liable to have a terrible time. Should it come to war, we will have to hope that we are capable of cutting them off from the hills (maybe with some expeditious use of the navy or cavalry?) and fight them on terrain favorable to our form of war; otherwise, it will be disaster. I have little faith that our unreformed hoplites or unexpanded professionals are able to take them on, seeing the failures of so many others before us. I'm not against taking an Exoria or Antipatrid option to shore these up when reform is on the table and other stuff higher priority to me is out of the way, as I've said.

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So, you seem to have missed the entire point of what I meant by organised. Yes the can recognise weakness. Yes they can actually plan an invasion, but unlike the Dauni and Iapgyians and Greeks, they do not plan years long economic, political and military buildup and aggression on the basis of cultural and historic hatred for us. There is a decidedly major difference in the two. Take the destruction of the Salt Works by the Dauni King, which has likely cost us hundreds of Gold, then the military changes the Iapgyians went through to become more dangerous to our forces in skirmish and be more effective raiders against us. Versus the Samnites who would just plan how to attack and do it, then shrug if they fail.

Next:
Their next target? Now? Oh my god, that is utterly ridiculous, to even suggest they'd suddenly attack immediately when they've already just had a war to vent excess population is utterly ridiculous. You're ignoring your own comments on their migration style of war, you're ignoring you're own comments on the Bruttii and Kymaian War and the fact, in your own example, you claim creating the Bruttii distracted the Lucani for decades, which means that we have a good chunk of time, something backed up by history, before we face Interior invasions.

It's not gonna happen the minute we invade, as you claim, because it didn't happen when we did the same to the Peuketti, it didn't happen in OTL and all the evidence points to it not happening now. You are outright fearmongering, without basis, at this point.

Lastly, you talk about cutting them off at the hills, with our navy... is that a typo dude?

Which major enemy and major war do you foresee us undertaking? Let's go by every hegemon or regional power listed in the State of the Mediterranean.

Laikadaimon: Far overseas land power with not much navy and poor relations with the power ruling the seas.
Athenai: We're actively pursuing even better relations with them at this moment and are actively supplying them essential grain.
Persian Empire: Separated from us by an entire Greece's worth of problems and then some.
Carthage: Embroiled in war and are separated from us by a mess of hugely empowered Greek states in Sicily as well as the Italiotes, also has no particular problem with us. I think this is the most likely war to get called into way in the future whenever they finish the war if the Sikeliotes push the envelope, but even so the number of forces we could bring out is limited by our navy and we wouldn't be lacking for allies if they're what called us in. We ought to be able to handle the Dauni at home.
Odryssian Thrace: Land power north of Hellas with what appears to be all of one port on the opposite side of the Hellespont from us (which is itself quite far), and no reason to be displeased with us.

Korinthos: Scary naval power that Athenai whom we're attempting to cozy up with can intimidate into irrelevance, and although they have a lot of ships they could only bring to bear a fraction of their land forces upon it using all of it and even then only at staggering cost. They can certainly screw up our ties to our league if not held in check by our expanded navy nor Athenai but they don't really have the transport capacity to challenge us on our land which limits the help they can provide the Dauni. And we are taking actions to mitigate this through the increased navy and better ties with Athens.
Thebai: Overseas land power aligned against Athens, this does not bode well for their navy. I can't see a particular reason for them to launch an expedition here, either.
Taras: We buried the hatchet with their influential peace faction which is crushing the opposition with the prosperity they've brought in. So long as we don't do anything stupid to upset them like ruining their trade ties, we ought to be good here.

Syrakousai: Strong city that hates us, but constrained by local rivals as a land power. It made a disastrous showing diplomatically, and lost some of its finest in a war that benefited it least of every Sikeliote city.
Akragas: Ally of Syrakousai, tensions put on display at conference. Expanding.
Gela: Moved away from alliance with Syrakousai for more independent stance.
Selinous: Embarrassed at conference by allies of Syrakousai, tends to avoid power games anyway.
Rhegion: Friendly to us and against Syrakousai, quite likely to profit at western Lokri's expense while Syrakousai is distracted.
Himera: Liable to do quite some expansion, allied to our ally and hates Syrakousai.
Sikeliote League: Massive expansion to occur at Sikel expense, our ally and hates Syrakousai.

Metapontion: Neutral, no real problem except if we start getting maniacal about an Italiote League.
Lokri Epixephyrii: A weak and isolated city surrounded by enemies, our allies.
Krotone: An ally.
Thurii: An ally.

We're in a pretty good spot diplomatically, or where we're not we're working on making that to be a better case ASAP. We're particularly secure within Italy itself, apart from the Oscan barbaroi. In particular there are few powers with any sense of rapport with the Dauni to ally with them and distract our attentions on land.

I was echoing your own words because you explicitly said "We could very easily conquer the Dauni" in the post I was replying to, and now you take issue with them when they're coming from me. I think that they'll be a pain to take, but one that we would take eventually. I don't think that it's worth the bother, particularly not if we end up bordering Samnites for the trouble after having freshly weakened the Dauni.

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Okay so first off, I didn't take issue with you saying I took issue with your comments we could beat the Dauni. If you read, you'll note that I said we could still beat them easily, I noted that we have the numbers etc etc.

What I took issue with was your comments that made it seem like we solo'd the Iapgyians all on our own, which is very untrue. And I also asserted that they could still do damage when your backs are turned, due to their new specialities.

Next, your comments on our ally situation.

Laikadaimon has Taras with a strong historical connection, they have a large treasury and are known as good diplomats, the traditional first amongst the Hellenics, they are direct allies with Korinthos. If we get too close to Athens there are two issues, one Sparta sees us as a threat and uses its diplomatic abilities and connections to make our life decidedly difficult, which they can no doubt do, there's a major reason why we're all afraid of the Great Wars in Hellas, they are allies with Korinthos, so if Sparta starts winning, they would then be very willing to see us punished.

Their league would crush us.

Korinthos could potential defeat us at sea, and with our tight budget we would struggle to put a land force out without outright using the Sacred Treasury, and the destruction caused by Dauni raids when distracted would hurt. TO say nothing of what Laikadaimon coin and political prowess might be able to do to us.

Then there's your assurances that 'we're gonna be friends with Athens, so it's all good!'. That is actually actively worse. Athens are not politically stable, they have betrayed allies and created puppet governments multiple times, if they 'suggest' we join their League, and we say no, there's a chance they could force the issue. And we'd lose. We're sending diplomats to Athens to keep an eye on them, not become buddy buddy. Not to plead for protection against Korinthos.

Korinthos, it is very scary, and we are not aligned with Athens enough for them to defend us against them. Sparta, is very powerful diplomatically and is the 'parent state' of Taras, with a lot of gold if they need it. Athens, is very mercurial, and likely to turn on their allies as soon as defend them, risks bringing us into a war we don't want, and is also, crucially, not actually our ally or close enough to us diplomatically to defend us.

You also dismiss the danger of Syracuse kicking off against the Sikeliotes, when it knows that it's power is waning, that it's chance for domination is slipping, it's possible they could kick off another war, which would include all of Magna Graecia, before they lose too much power. A last ditch attempt at victory when all else has failed.

Overall, you ignore crucial facts, make up a closer relationship with Athens than most people want, ignore the current real relationship with Athens and our wariness of them, and also ignore the danger of Korinthos and Athens itself, as well as the might of Sparta.

You ignore possible, real enemies, whilst focusing on a shadow of the future.

Oscans have destroyed the southern Etruscans, the Kymaians, the Oenotrians, all neighbors within the past few decades. They've peeled away cities and land, expanding and growing strong. All the Dauni have managed in the same timeframe is to hold onto what they've had, managing a general annoyance at worst with their only attempt at any sort of invasion having become a farce when we threatened to immediately instigate a civil war if they did so. I know which I'd rather have on my border.

The point of not destroying them is to make them a less viable target in the first place while other weak Italians are around. It's like being chased by a bear with your friends- you don't have to be strong enough to fight it off to not get eaten, just faster than your slowest pal. If it does come to war then we're going to be in a bad spot regardless, but should it reach that point it is better for the Samnites to have tired themselves against a strong Dauni and their fortifications and be startled by a fresh Eretria than the reverse situation.

Tribute gives us very minimal money, particularly in light of all the other actions it takes to even get any of it. Salt would also require a sizable investment to get started, assuming we even directly controlled it and not that it had been flopped over with the pre-existing city. If the matter is getting rich quick, the Drakonid faction is quite likely to make use of the massive harbor they invested so much in opening up, and they aren't demanding another expensive war and huge upfront investment before their ideas are at all viable.

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The Interior Tribes have not destroyed the Etruscans, they have warred with them, but the Etruscans are pretty shit at this time, and please note, that they didn't actually destroy the faction. The other two? Yeah, they took over half a century for all the different factions of the Samnites to do this, this is because they're not active conquers, they're not actively malicious. They also won't bother us for years and years and years using the evidence of their behaviour we've seen in history and in this quest so far.

I know I'd rather have the Interior Tribes on my border, when they aren't constantly planning against us, when they don't have a historic and cultural opposition to us and are likely to sit around for over a decade doing nothing before they even begin looking for targets. At which point the Dauni will look far less juicy.

Next, your logic of being faster than the other guy (it's a Lion in the original saying) is correct, but please note, if we conquered the Dauni, there'd be several other guys they could conquer that would be 'slower' than our, at that point, large and well established Hegemony. Because unlike what you've claimed, that the Samnite would immediately invade and wreck our shit, they will take a long time before they need to spew out more excess population. And when they do, using your own example, they wouldn't choose us.

Now let's imagine the time comes for them to spew out their population, and they're choosing targets, and we haven't conquered the Dauni. The Dauni are now their most likely target. So now, instead of choosing someone else because the Dauni are a part of a large, strong looking Empire, they choose the Dauni.

Now we have Samnite neighbours anyway, and this time they have all the Dauni's resources, congratulations, you deprived us of Tribute, auxiliaries and Salt to delay the problem.

Tribute, as we saw with the Messappi, can bet us ten or more gold, which is near equal to some of our plainer trade routes, and Salt does require investment. Investment it's well worth, Salt would become our most valuable trade route, I have no doubt about it. You have done this since the beginning. Constantly ignored the value of salt, which is basically worth its weight in gold, because it doesn't suit your narrative that the Samnites will destroy us all the second we touch the Dauni, and they have nothing of value for us.

You are too paranoid about the Dauni. I would point out they very very probably won't be an issue for many years, but I've repeatedly stated this, and it hasn't sunk in.

You're willing to deprive us of salt, tribute and levy's to avoid a war, your strategy would drag us into anyway. This time without the gold and extra troops under our direct command we could've gotten from a subjugated Dauni.

 

[Skippy]

Did I say Ausculos was old anywhere...? I don't remember saying so.

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You didn't notice and correct Skippy's one throwaway line immediately. By the Ninth Law of Quest Thread Derailment, Ausculos is now canonically an old man, regardless of any previous characterization.

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Life Call 354 BCE Edition:

"Help, Greek colonists are subjugating and conducting secret treaties with my vassals, and I can't get up."

"Don't worry King Ausculos, we're sending help immediately."

 

[McLuvin]

Life Call 354 BCE Edition:

"Help, Greek colonists are subjugating and conducting secret treaties with my vassals, and I can't get up."

"Don't worry King Ausculos, we're sending help immediately."

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Samnites: Have you had an accident due to Hellenic based issues? Do you require bloody vengeance and war in compensation? Then call Greek Killers 4 U now. We have a no win no rape and pillage basis, so call Greek Killers 4 U today!
No fee does not refer to conquest of your lands and the abduction of everything not nailed down. Always read the small print sucker

 

[Ironanvil1]

The two Dauni cities who want to join us would provide a nice layered buffer system, with the Dauni Kingdom being less likely to want to attack their kin on our frontline, but still having chunky enough numbers to deter the Samnites from pushing in on them.

 

[Star]

The two Dauni cities who want to join us would provide a nice layered buffer system, with the Dauni Kingdom being less likely to want to attack their kin on our frontline, but still having chunky enough numbers to deter the Samnites from pushing in on them.

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Someone being someone's kin didn't stop peloponnese war from happening.

 

[Ironanvil1]

Someone being someone's kin didn't stop peloponnese war from happening.

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I said less likely, not guaranteed. However, the fact that they'd be bringing the entire edifice of Eretria, its vassals and League down upon their now reduced numbers would be a significant deterrent as well.

 

[Skippy]

So first you talk about how weak the Dauni are and how we could smash them, then you later talk about the 'risks'? Clear up what you mean please. Is it Bizzaro to consider him a threat at all? Or is invading him a risk?

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Sorry, I should be more clear about what I mean here, it was 4 AM last night when I was replying. Apologies.

There is a strong distinction between us staging an sudden invasion of the Dauni in the near future, and King Ausculos himself trying to rally together a Coalition of the Willing to come and attack us. The former is riskier because the military situation is different.

In the first case, we're an external aggressor, he can (convincingly) portray as that way, and this always tends to unite people. Even Salapia and Herdonia might feel pressured to join or at least stay neutral. We would consequently be fighting quite a high fraction of the Dauni's available strength, especially as their logistics will be simplified fighting at home whilst ours will be more difficult. We would be fighting on their home turf, where they know the terrain. This does not mean there is a high risk of us losing, although obviously that would be a disaster if it happened, but it does mean that we would likely take more losses than we need to.

If King Ausculos is coming to attack us, he has to rally cities to his banner to do so. This is challenging for him, because he's resented by a fair chunk of his people, and we haven't done anything to annoy the Dauni. It is further complicated if we're trading with the Dauni, whether he's tried to stop that or not, because many cities will resent him for essentially costing them money. The best he's likely to be able to do is raid us, as he was going to last time, and given the kind of response he's likely to face, he may (correctly) decide it isn't worth it. If he does attack us, we have a perfect excuse to crush him, and then move into the now disunited Dauni confederacy.

We befriend the cities who will trade with us, present ourselves as reasonable, and force him to accommodate us or push him into a corner where his options are limited. His coalition deteriorates to the point where a war becomes a foregone conclusion. If he tries to attack us before that happens, then even just having Herdonia and Salapia as solid allies rather than neutral parties helps a lot; we have local allies and hold territory to operate from. This is how we subjugated the Pueketii. It is how a lot of subjugations of large tribal coalitions have worked. History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

To make it simple, do we want to go to war with the Dauni before we've split off a decent fraction of their coalition, or afterwards?

(This is not a trick question.)

 

[Ironanvil1]

And you believe that Danui king will oh so gently let two of his cities go with possibility of others following in their footsteps?
If anything it will guarantee that war will happen at some point if not outright.

Edit: Though i believe that we actually probably missed that chance anyway , he probably delt with those cities.

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He will undoubtedly want a war, but he'd have suffered 25% losses out the gate, and be trying to convince his remaining vassals to go to war to force other Dauni cities back under his control, against a serious foe who has both other Iapygian tribes under their hegemony.

 

[Shard]

I like the idea of peeling away cities while the king ineffectually rages against us against the inevitable, unstoppable tide of merchants buying everything away.

 

[Skippy]

Even if Ausculos immediately goes to war in reaction to us allying with Herdonia and Salapia, this is obviously better for us. We now have two local allies splitting off a quarter of his forces, whereas if we invaded cold, they'd probably stay neutral or maybe even stand with the other Dauni.

He may not be that stupid, though.

If Ausculos is clever, he might try to manoeuvre himself into a situation more similar to King Arthias, making himself a middleman for access to Dauni trade. This will give him money and time, and we'd have to deal with him.

 

[afterthought53]

Divide and conquer would be best, especially if we can get a city or three to invite us in.

 

[Professor Vesca]

Offer an alliance with Herdonia and Salapia in the vein if our relationship with Egnatia. Offer to help fund their salterns if they give us a monopoly on all salt produced, and whatever else they want to trade with us.

 

[McLuvin]

Except here's the issue.

The two cities that would allow themselves to be annexed are right on the door of their capital, on the other side of the natural borders that defined our relationship for generations. If we try to claim them? The Dauni would have no choice but to fight for them.

At which point we may as well take the whole damn thing if we're fighting them anyway.

If we're not annexing them, then we face the problem that their Kingdom has a precedence of economic interference by their Monarch. Recall that a previous King tore down the salt works, and preceding Kings then prevented them being rebuilt.

Further we'd be paying sums of money in bribes and more advantageous trade, without getting Tribute or the Salt for a serious length of time.

We'd essentially be throwing money at a long term investment that will probably result in war anyway.

Further this ignores the fact the Dauni King is still a decent politician, he's been unpopular for years, yet managed to project a sense of unity and strength before we were outright told he's unpopular, I recall it being somewhat of a shock IC for some. Further he's maintained power despite being embarrassed by rebellious Vassals all those years ago and he, if the initial descriptions of his ruthlessness are anything to go by, has already taken down multiple political opponents.

Then there's the diplo actions we'd have to throw at this. When we're already having the amount lowered by the QM.

In essence it is outright inefficient to try this 'Divide and conquer' plan. Both in action economy and in actual economics.

 

[Cetashwayo]

Well, he's unpopular with the nobility. However you cannot speak Messapic and so the opinions you receive are elite Iapyges