Magna Graecia: Titanomachia (A City State Quest)

[ctulhuslp]

Yeah. Its almost unique in terms of amount of research and effort and love put into it. And community is great indeed, enough to make it feel like really a vibrant debating forum in a city.

At this point I feel that if Cetash wanted to publish historical fiction as like IRL author he would do quite a great job indeed.

 

[Redium]

Now that we're in a bit of a down time moment with the vote being settled, I wanted to talk about The Future. Specifically, on how Eretria and the Epulian League can continue to grow.

Currently, our most obvious problem is an acute shortage of cash. We're currently running consistent deficits, primarily due to constructing the Great Harbour. When we finish our naval expansion, however, we're going to be in a seriously tight place; we won't be able to afford to build any more Great Works as we don't have the spare 100 talents/year in our budget.

We need to increase our revenues.

The question is: how to do it? The obvious answer is trade. After the Great Harbour finishes we're going to automatically get two more trade routes and open ourselves up for 19 more. If we can fill all of those, that's equal to 118 talents worth of income at our current Tariff Efficiency level (assuming only Staple trade routes). If we can create some Luxury Trade Routes (e.g. Murax Dye, Amber, Glass, Perfumes, Pottery), then our revenues go up considerably; each Luxury trade route is worth roughly two thirds more than a staple route.

We can also increase our incomes by increasing our current level of taxation. Really the only way we can increase this, however, is by directly increasing Eretria's population. It's nice because we do get a roughly 3-5% boost in Taxation income each Census as population increases, but it's limited. There's not much we can do to actively increase the growth of taxation. Given how the Metics are already straining on the tax burden we inflicted on them, it's likely taxation is going to shrink in the future. The citizens are not going to easily vote to raise taxes on themselves outside of exigent circumstances.

A third possible income source is tribute. Currently, we make 20.3 Talents from both the League and the Peuketti. With us fully subjugating the Messapii this turn, that'll rise to 30.6. This isn't something we can really raise easily; we could always make a User Motion to increase the level of tribute we demand, but that's going to cause unrest. One of our current greatest strengths is that our vassals don't want to dethrone us at the current moment. The Delian League is very much more hassle than it's worth for Athenai at the moment since they're constantly putting down rebellions. We don't want to end up in those shoes.

What we can do, however, is subjugate the Danui. It's going to be expensive up front, but they're likely to pay about as much in Tribute as the Messapii and Peuketii: ~10.5 talents. Once they're subjugated, they'll also give us an Overland Trade route and access to Lake Salpai, one of the best locations for saltworks in the Mediterranean. It's hard to say how much Lake Salpai is worth, but it's important to note that many empires built themselves on the salt trade: Mali, Rome, China, Venice, etc. Lake Salpai is also a significant enough saltworks that it can be expanded and maintain relevance even with truly industrial levels of production.

This is something we'll do eventually, but at the moment, I'm a bit put off by the required initial costs of actually subjugating them. Given how we'd be able to call on the Epulian League, Peuketti, and Messapii, we wouldn't have to put forward too much troops ourselves and can defray costs that way. Just the League and our vassals alone would be an army of ~6,000 and that's significantly more than the Danui are likely to be able to muster.

Trade is easier, less risky and costly. In order to trade, however, we need to focus on the different groups we can trade with in the Adriatic and the colonies we can found. As I see it, we have five main possible trade partners: Enteoi/Histri, Northern Etruscans, Middle Illyria. Southern Illyria, Iapyges Tribes.

Breaking things down, these are the trade goods we could find in each region:

Enteoi/Histri
Imports (Staple): Agriculture products
Imports (Luxury): Pottery
Exports (Staple): Iron (several significant sources)
Exports (Luxury): Gold, Silver, Amber
Possible future trade goods: Cloth, Zinc

Northern Etruscans
Imports (Staple): Wood, Lamp oil
Imports (Luxury): Pottery, Gold, Glass, Ivory, Slaves, Perfume
Exports (Staple): Agriculture products, Timber, Pig iron
Exports (Luxury): Linen, Pottery, Manufactured goods (bronze, gold, ivory)
Possible future trade goods: Salt (from Venice's salt marshes), Zinc

Middle Illyrians (Dalmate, Darosai, Plaerai, Ardiaei, Labeates)
Imports (Staple): Agriculture products
Imports (Luxury): Pottery, Metalwork*
Exports (Staple): Slaves, Timber
Exports (Luxury): Silver
Possible future trade goods: Iron, Murex purple, Gold, Cloth

*Middle Illyria's metalworking is noted to be relatively poor compared their neighbours, both to the north and to the south. The only area they're noted not to be deficient is with weaponry.

Southern Illyrians (Parthini, Abri, Epirotes, Dassarate, Enchelae)
Imports (Staple): Agriculture products
Imports (Luxury): Pottery
Exports (Staple): Iron, Timber, Asphalt (waterproof caulk), Slaves
Exports (Luxury): Silver*
Possible future trade goods: Cloth

*Southern Illyria was a major producer of silver until about the 5th century BCE, but it's going to be making a comeback around this time in-game. Two new cities, Damastion and Daparria have been founded and are major centers for silver production.

Iapyges Tribes (Messapii, Peuketti, Dauni)
Imports (Staple): Agriculture products, all metals
Imports (Luxury): Pottery
Exports (Staple): Cattle, Agriculture products
Exports (Luxury): None
Possible future trade goods: Salt, Cheese

(Agriculture products include: wine, olive oil, grain)

Possible future trade goods require increased development, both in terms of increased trade ties, but also in terms of population and colonization.

With all of this in mind, I want to propose that we try and seek monopolies in Salt, Cloth, Glass, and Slaves.

Salt is something that is relatively hard to procure within our region and it's something everyone wants. If we can secure Lake Salpai and Venice's salt marshes, we'll have the two main production regions fully within our grasp. Given that we're already looking to establish an amber monopoly, pushing for a salt monopoly makes good sense as well. We're already going to secure an amber monopoly by establishing not!Venice, so why not seek to use their salt resources there as well.

Cloth is something I see becoming increasingly valuable as Sikelia, Hellas, Magna Gracia, and Cathage continue to urbanize. Roughly 95% of the effort of making clothing is in spinning raw wool into cloth and it's a relatively low-bulk good so it becomes a potent store of value. Clothing is useless without standardized sizing and unspun yarn is too bulky to transport; cloth is at just the right point to export.

The cloth industry formed the backbone of England and the Low Countries economy, making both regions incredibly wealthy. We can do the same thing with Illyria; most of the tribes there are still semi-settled with many still being herdsmen for cattle and sheep. They want to purchase goods from us like wine and olive oil, but don't have a good way to pay for it. By encouraging them to come down to our colonies and shear their sheep (similar to the cattle drive of the Iapyges), we can trade with them in that way. The colonies can spin the raw wool into cloth and we then export that to the urbanized regions south of us.

The Dalmate are also known for being poor metal smiths, but excellent shepherds. We can trade manufactured goods in turn for wool, hopefully boosting an internal manufacturing industry in Eretria itself. We'll need to negotiate with them, but we can colonize around Split to get the industry started.

As pointed out by @The Sandman, the area around Brention is one of the few places in the Mediterranean that is suitable to produce good glass, along with Sikelia and Krete. By importing people with Demos Drakonia's colonialism policy, we can jump start our own industry; Venice held onto their secrets for the better part of a thousand years and it made them fantastically wealthy. Glass is one of the few things that is extremely difficult to manufacture and can't be easily replicated.

Slaves is something I want to make a monopoly only so that the Epulian League controls and restricts slavery. States that export slaves slowly rot from the inside out as each individual slaver fights with each other to get an advantage so they can be the seller and not the sold. If we want Illyria to actual begin to congeal as a region and become a large-scale trade partner, slavery is going to have to be limited.

Right now, the Greek demand for slaves is likely being fulfilled by Sikelia, but it's not a sustainable source of cheap slaves. Eventually, the Sikels and Sikani are going to be wiped out and their land taken. At that point, there's going to be no one left who can be enslaved and the current boom is going to collapse. At that point, it's going to look extremely tempting for slavers to look elsewhere to try and find somewhere they can continue their trade. If we don't lock down the Adriatic slave trade, they're going to invite themselves in. I'm much more inclined to let them try and go after (read: choke on) the native Italians for their slaving needs.

In general, if we want to make money from trade, we're in a good position to do so as soon as the Great Harbour finishes. We'll need to continue colonization and accept Demos Drakonia's immigration policy if we want to really break into trade and manufacturing as revenue sources.

With all of the above thoughts in mind on trade, I've gone looking for possible sites for new colonies. This isn't exhaustive, given the relatively small size of Greek poleis, we could likely fit far more colonies in the Adriatic. The ones I'm proposing are the 'top of the lot' so to say. Italicized options are, I believe, first rate choices. All locations have modern names so you can find them on Google Maps if you want to look.

Possible Colony Sites

Dalmate
Split: Good natural harbour; good trade potential: cloth, gold, silver, murex; high quality agriculture
Makarska: Natural harbour; good trade potential: cloth, murex

Picentini
Senigallia: Agriculture land; interior river access
Cesano: Agriculture land; interior river access
Fano: Agriculture land
Pesaro: Agriculture land; interior river access
Cattolica: Agriculture land
Rimini: Agriculture land
Martinsicuro: Agriculture land

Enetoi
Venice: Great Harbour; fantastic trade potential: iron, salt, pottery, gold, amber; good agriculture
Marano Lagoon: Agriculture land
Monafalcone: Agriculture land; good trade potential: gold, iron

Histri
Novigrad: Good Harbour; Agriculture land
Pula: Excellent Harbour; great trade potential: iron, gold, amber; good agriculture
Piran: Good Harbour; Agriculture land
Rovinj: Good Harbour; Agriculture land
Medulin: Good Harbour; Great trade potential: iron, gold, amber; good agriculture

Nothern Etruscans
Po River Delta: Good Agriculture land; Great trade potential: Linen, manufactured goods; very defensible
Ravenna: Great Agriculture; Great trade potential: linen, manufactured goods; very defensible
(The Etruscans had a tendency specifically to quarter foreign merchants in their own cities as effectively mini-colonies to ensure consistent trade access. We should be able to get a similar deal with them.)

Iapodes
Any one of the Islands: Anti-Liburnai pirate base

Pleraei
Bay of Kotor: Good trade potential: cloth, timber, slaves; agriculture land; good natural harbour
Molunat: Agriculture land; nearby colonies

Parthini
Shkumbin River: Good agriculture land; some trade potential: silver, slaves, cloth; nearby Greeks
Orikum: Agriculture land; nearby Greeks

Abri
Lumi Mai River: Good agriculture land; some trade potential: silver, slaves, cloth; nearby Greeks

Labeates
Shkodër : Great agriculture, good trade potential: silver, slaves, timber; nearby Greeks; excellent harbour; needs to be conquered

Dauni
Lake Salpai: Great trade potential: salt; ensures continuous Epulian territory

Edit: Wisdom from Cetashwayo changed a few things.

 

[Nyvis]

Magnificent effortpost here.

I think the top of the Adriatic is where we want to be. Illyria is nice, but Venice is perfectly placed to open up to the inland markets. And trading with the Eastern Etruscians could give us access to a lot of pretty developed population and markets.

 

[Walker Of Chaos]

Right now my thinking is that we will want to beeline for the Venice site in order to finally obtain that darned monopoly and secure our treasury. After that we turn our attention back to our existing holdings in southern Croatia and cement our control of the area, perhaps by founding one or two more cities (Nea Kymai will also do wonders for this). Once we have solidified our hold on that region we can focus on expanding into additional parts of the Adriatic without worrying about overextending ourselves.

In the background we should of corse also look for oppurtunities to get more greeks into the league, particularly Epidamnos. The larger our population base the faster we can get colonies up and running.

 

[Secretariat]

(Nea Kymai will also do wonders for this).

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Rejected names for Nea Kymai:

καλοτοπία - Kalotopia, The Good Place

Spoiler

 

[Cetashwayo]

One colonization location you may have missed because of changes to the coastline is Ravenna; it was a coastal port situated here:



With only a narrow corridor of almost impassable semi-aquatic marshes connecting it to the mainland. Ravenna was chosen as a center of the Late Roman Empire for a reason; it has an extremely defensible position on the Po Valley. Since then the Po has silted up and made Ravenna inland, and the massive coastal marsh to its west has disappeared into fertile land. But in ancient times it occupied a similar position to modern Venice, whereas the Venetian lagoon in this period was much larger and formed part of a network of lagoons stretching from Trieste to Arimnus.

Also, Middle Illyria is the main transit route for Balkan silver arriving from the mines of the Dardani. So it has big value that way, whereas the southern Illyrian mines you're referencing were centered around Ohrid and mostly dried up in the mid-5th century BCE. It was the silver trade with the Dardani which actually caused Dionysios I of Syrakousai to colonize the Adriatic, as colonies such as Issa and Pharos were ports where silver and slaves could be brought to Sicily.

 

[Skippy]

Honestly whilst I'd favoured Venice as a location for Nea Kymai, Ravenna is also an extremely good shout. I knew that was an option at some point, but it had somewhat escaped me that the harbour of the Daorsi was Ravenna.

 

[Cetashwayo]

Honestly whilst I'd favoured Venice as a location for Nea Kymai, Ravenna is also an extremely good shout. I knew that was an option at some point, but it had somewhat escaped me that the harbour of the Daorsi was Ravenna.

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Uh, no, Ravenna is not the harbor of the Daorsi, Dubrovnik is

 

[Skippy]

Uh, no, Ravenna is not the harbor of the Daorsi, Dubrovnik is

Click to shrink...

 

[Secretariat]

revote with ravenna included

 

[Erandil]

I think sou underestimate the effort to truly subjugate the Dauni somewhat since unless we get lucky we might well have to siege down a number of relatively sizeable settlements which could easily take years. I know a lot point to the fact that a junvet of them were willing to come under pur overlordship peacefully had their king declared war upon us during the Taras issue but that is now over a decade in the past and much could have changed, especially if we are percieved as the aggressor. Also there is the fact to consider that conquering the Dauni means having a far longer border with the Samnites which could become problematic and costly in the future. The salt trade and tribute probably still make it a wortwhile proposal but I don't think it is the obvious choice for generating wealth.

That is pretty clearly trade and with the Adriatoc becoming ever more part of our hegemony we should have more than enough Potential trade goods becoming available to us. Though as I said once already it might behoove us to try and diversify our trading partners to avoid getting to dependent on for example our trade with Athens (I personally still dream of traderoutes to Carthage).

Also while I am unsure how cetash is handling it precisely, since a lot of this could easily fall under trade, there are ways to strengthen our local economy and thus tax base. I for example still dream of setting up some sort of proto-weapons/metalworking workshop (my latest hope is to have it be a side-effect of a military reform targeted at providing our troops better equipment (I think armory of Ares was the term some used)) since that should create additional wealthy, and thus taxable, craftsmen.

 

[Cetashwayo]

Also while I am unsure how cetash is handling it precisely, since a lot of this could easily fall under trade, there are ways to strengthen our local economy and thus tax base. I for example still dream of setting up some sort of proto-weapons/metalworking workshop (my latest hope is to have it be a side-effect of a military reform targeted at providing our troops better equipment (I think armory of Ares was the term some used)) since that should create additional wealthy, and thus taxable, craftsmen.

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Taxation will eventually improve for everyone. IMO I did exaggerate a little about how good Eretria's taxation is, and I agree with objections to that, looking at it now, but the Metics still make sense as a tax base there. But as Metics decline as a tax base obviously the overall tax base will decrease, so what to do? The answer is that in the 4th century BCE all cities became better at extracting revenue. My favorite example is Athens.

Athenian revenue in 431 BCE was 400 talents internally, of which 300 was taxation of all sources and 100 was Piraeus harbor dues. 600 talents were gained from Delian League tribute.

In 338 BCE, however, there was an entirely different situation. Athenian revenue was 1200 talents, all domestic, and 400 of those were from Piraeus. Part of this was raising the duty on goods from 1% to 2%, but to an extent this is simulated by tariff efficiency, which is really in part a measure of how much you can extract right now both administratively and with your given level of trade. With a massive commercial boom in the Aegean, Athenai could afford to raise the Piraeus harbor dues. But the really interesting story is the other 800, which is almost certainly all from improving methods of taxation and the innovation of the property tax, which really got off the ground in this period.

And it makes sense; as states became more reliant on mercenaries and also more commercial than they had been, they needed new revenue-raising instruments. The 4th century BCE Mediterranean was more connected and more urbanized and more wealthy than the 5th century BCE Mediterranean, and the 3rd century BCE Mediterranean was even more so.

(We don't talk about the 2nd century BCE Mediterranean).

 

[Skippy]

(We don't talk about the 2nd century BCE Mediterranean).

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This is a safe space!

 

[Kipeci]

I am rather hesitant to fight with the Dauni in part because I feel that the intimidating Samnites and Frentani on the other side could take advantage of the chance to fall upon the weakened victor. We already know it'd be a long, hard slog of years against the Dauni, and if the Samnites aren't involved against anyone they would be quite energized. Though maybe it would be fine since they did send off a lot of their excess people to become the Campanians.

Basically I'm worried that they pull something like what the Lombards did to the Eastern Romans just after the latter finished off Gothic power in Italy with years of back and forth struggle.

 

[Nyvis]

I am rather hesitant to fight with the Dauni in part because I feel that the intimidating Samnites and Frentani on the other side could take advantage of the chance to fall upon the weakened victor. We already know it'd be a long, hard slog of years against the Dauni, and if the Samnites aren't involved against anyone they would be quite energized. Though maybe it would be fine since they did send off a lot of their excess people to become the Campanians.

Basically I'm worried that they pull something like what the Lombards did to the Eastern Romans just after the latter finished off Gothic power in Italy with years of back and forth struggle.

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We could just put the few cities near us who were friendly rather than try to make the whole kingdom a tributary?

 

[McLuvin]

We could just put the few cities near us who were friendly rather than try to make the whole kingdom a tributary?

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Except then we have to defend those cities? Against Dauni who hate our guts? When they're on the doorsteps of the Dauni Capitol? Across the river that is our main border? And even if we beat them back they'd be so vulnerable afterwards the Interior tribes would take their land easily and then we'd be even more fucked because they now have even more territory?

We have several plans to take down the Dauni completely and bring them in our sphere, not doing so is actively worse than just taking a small chunk of them, and we cannot ignore the potential profit of those salt works.

 

[phil03]

I hate to criticise what is otherwise a magnificient post by @Redium but I feel two points needs to be adressed.

First things first, both the worth of the Delian League for Athens AND the trouble Athens is keeping control are respectively under and overestimated here.

Yes, they're was revolts but until the disaster in Sicily those remained isolated matters, with even the ''regional'' revolt in Chalcidique made possible by Brasidas. They where still hastles to deal with but the truly stagering tributes Athens got out of the league was well worth it, without even talking about the other sources of revenues geopolitical control of those territories could, and did brought. The monetary ressources it brought were key in building up from a regional power to a Medditerannean superpower.

Now, I agree that our situation is different and we can't do something similar for a bunch of reasons, not the least because our tributaries are also a source of military auxiliaries, but the comparaison with Athens remain faulty.

Now, as to Dauni I feel that, while @Redium is correct when looking at things purely from the financial angle, only looking at things through that angle miss crucial elements of the matter. As things stand, the Dauni Kingdom is an active threat to Eretria. The actions King Ausculos at the begining of the war with Taras (alongside how the snipet in Arthias POV depicted him) have amply shown that he is essentially waiting for a good occasion to pounce.

Moreover, and while it hasn't been stated outright, I feel that the in-story characterisation of Ausculos made it a relatively safe bet that the ambitions his father formed in term of influence over other Lapgives have probably been inherited by Ausculos. At the very least, Arthais POV snipet gave me the impression he will do what he can to stir up trouble with the Peuketii and the Messapii, as well as taking advantage of any discontentment that exist.

Yes, the Dauni Kingdom can't really fight us one on one with reasonable ods of success but having to also fight a war against the Dauni kingdom while we handle a more dangerous ennemy might very well be what tip the balance from victory to defeat, as far as we are concerned.

So here you have an opponent who seek to make war with Eretria for, what we can admit OOC, completely understandable reasons but also seek to do so in the most favourable moment, as of yet luck and Memnon competence have prevented Ausculos from doing so but ods are the occasion the latter seek is gonna present itself at some point.

Now, to prevent that from happening they're is essentially two possibilities.

Option 1 is to try for a detente with Auscula, I must confess I am sceptical here. The Dauni Kingdom has been founded to resist greek encrochment so they're is some serious baggages between us and them that have only grown worse through the decades as tenses relations have continued ever since. Hell, we have gotten to a point where Ausculos is even willing to alienate Salapia, one of his own cities, by destroying its saltworks to prevent us from gaining commercially. Moreover, going for detente would have some risks too, as seeing Eretria attempt to mend fences with Ausculos would likely made those unhappy with his rule and looking at us for support give up and also do their best to reconcile with him and his successors, leaving us with a more dangerous opponent should we fail to reconcile as well as giving Ausculos time and geopolitical to make trouble with our Lapgive feudetaries.

Still, its always possible to try.

Option 2 is to turn the table on them by choosing a moment where Eretria is otherwise unnoccupied geopolitically (had we not been busy with Kimai the Exoria would have probably had a pretty strong case to make that now was a good moment last election) and have the war happen our own terms instead of them. In many ways this would be similar to decision make to attack the Peucetii immediatelly, before they could be ready, in the first itteration of the quest.

So, like often in this quest we have, to take some of Cavalier words an ''idealistic'' and a ''cynical'' path. In this instance I would tend to go with the cynical one and while I acknowledge I tend go more often with the latter then the former I do feel the idealistic is simply too farfetch considering past Dauni-Eretrian relationships.

I think sou underestimate the effort to truly subjugate the Dauni somewhat since unless we get lucky we might well have to siege down a number of relatively sizeable settlements which could easily take years. I know a lot point to the fact that a junvet of them were willing to come under pur overlordship peacefully had their king declared war upon us during the Taras issue but that is now over a decade in the past and much could have changed, especially if we are percieved as the aggressor. Also there is the fact to consider that conquering the Dauni means having a far longer border with the Samnites which could become problematic and costly in the future. The salt trade and tribute probably still make it a wortwhile proposal but I don't think it is the obvious choice for generating wealth.

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While things might have changed we did get indications in the past that fortifications Dauni town might have are simply not near as formidable as what Eretria and Taras have and would therefore be far more takable. Still I do feel you are touching a key point here: the ''win one battle and get them to agree to an advantageous peace'' model we have followed in the past won't work with the Dauni since we would be looking for at the very least regime change in a campaign against Ausculos, and for that you need a more complete victory then what we have won against, say Taras or even the Liburnians. I would say a two or three years war, instead of one season of campaign, is likely to be in store in such a conflict.

As for wheter things would have changed all that much when it come to the Dauni towns and their relationships with Ausculos in the last years I would say its certainly possible things have changed but I would also not necessarely see it as likely. The core of the anti-Ausculos sentiment was lead by Herdonia and Salapia the last time around, and that latter have, at the very least, not seemingly allowed to get their saltworks back on or been compensated otherwise so they are probably still angry at their king.

As for the Samnites, I don't see why having them as neighbours of some of ours vassals would necessarely be more of a danger then having the Lucanians as neighbours of the Peuketii. Granted, the invasion of Campania shows how potentially dangerous they can be but it also mean that much of the demographic pressures they faced has been alieviated, reducing the risk of similar invasion happening for the time being.

 

[Cetashwayo]

Athenai's squeezing of revenues from the Delian League had a military as well as a fiscal component to it. By upping tribute and suppressing rebellions by powerful cities Athenai slowly but surely destroyed the military capacity of its subject cities. By the Peloponnesian War only a few states could afford independent navies anymore, and had grown accustomed to being relied on mainly for their tax revenues.

The Epulian League is a very different model, because Eretria is not confident enough in its own size and power to suppress the Epulian League's military capabilities. In fact, it is actively promoting them through naval levies, and so the city necessarily needs to take a looser and less aggressive tack because it is partly reliant on its neighbors. This is a model closer to how Thebai and the Boeotian League interacted, rather than the Athenian Delian League where the Athenians were in the middle of building an imperial periphery inspired by the Persian model when the Peloponnesian War cut it short. They had inspectors and assessors, garrisons in several key cities, and would sometimes deport especially troublesome populations and replace them with Athenian kleruchies, which were explicitly colonies in the imperial sense, with Athenian citizenship.

And the thing is that the system was working until Alkibiades, an influx of Persian gold to the Spartan side, Spartan resilience and flexibility in commanding a navy (even if the navy's crews were not Spartan) and the last few really independent subjects like Chios rising up that did it in. And even then, this rebellion was mostly suppressed, and it was a Peloponnesian Navy and Persian gold, not the League's revolt, that ended their first empire (the second was formed in the 4th century BCE and mostly centered on Thrace and the northern Aegean).

 

[Redium]

Magnificent effortpost here.

I think the top of the Adriatic is where we want to be. Illyria is nice, but Venice is perfectly placed to open up to the inland markets. And trading with the Eastern Etruscians could give us access to a lot of pretty developed population and markets.

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There is one danger in trading with the Etruscans: the only thing we have to trade with them is gold and silver. @Cetashwayo has indicated that one of Eretria's current fears is that we don't have a reliable source of silver for coinage. We currently get most of it by trading with the Illyrians and just keeping whatever comes our way. Right now, the main things we export are: olive oil, wine, sardines, and grain; the Etruscans don't have any need of those. They're net exporters.

If we redirect our silver back north, we may run into liquidity trouble. I'd much rather try and push internally to develop manufacturing of our own (pottery or glass, if possible) or expand the production of Murex or sea silk. We can hook ourselves up to the Northern Etruscans a bit later on.

If I could plot out an ideal course for trade development, it would be: found Venice, found Pula, found Split, then found Ravenna. From there, I'd like to subjugate the Dauni and/or the free Greek cities of Illyria. After that, conquer the city of Scodra.

We'll have to wait, however, to see how things play out. I'm sure that Korinth is going to come around like an unwanted house guest at the worst possible time.

One colonization location you may have missed because of changes to the coastline is Ravenna; it was a coastal port situated here:



With only a narrow corridor of almost impassable semi-aquatic marshes connecting it to the mainland. Ravenna was chosen as a center of the Late Roman Empire for a reason; it has an extremely defensible position on the Po Valley. Since then the Po has silted up and made Ravenna inland, and the massive coastal marsh to its west has disappeared into fertile land. But in ancient times it occupied a similar position to modern Venice, whereas the Venetian lagoon in this period was much larger and formed part of a network of lagoons stretching from Trieste to Arimnus.

Also, Middle Illyria is the main transit route for Balkan silver arriving from the mines of the Dardani. So it has big value that way, whereas the southern Illyrian mines you're referencing were centered around Ohrid and mostly dried up in the mid-5th century BCE. It was the silver trade with the Dardani which actually caused Dionysios I of Syrakousai to colonize the Adriatic, as colonies such as Issa and Pharos were ports where silver and slaves could be brought to Sicily.

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I did note Ravenna, 'Po River Delta', but I wasn't sure we could've colonized that exact location since the coastline shifted. As long as we manage to found an emporia for the Northern Etruscans, I'm fine to put it anywhere.

On the silver mines, there are two currently rising Illyrian cities of the 4th century: Damastion and Daparria. They're Illyrian cities, but located around the traditional western border with Paeonia. Their coins will be found as far west as Split and Shkodër so trade routes can develop between us. Epidamnos and Apollonia are likely currently 2nd order traders (they don't trade directly, but with an intermediary); they should have some level of contact with these two new sources of silver.

The fact that the Dardani are the major relay in Illyrian silver trade makes me want to mug the Labeates for the city of Scodra. From what I understand, Scodra is modern day Shkodër and it's just been founded (it was founded in the 4th century BCE at an unknown time). It has direct sea access via Lake Shkodër and dominates land trade within the region. Of interest to us is that it's one of the primary routes for Dardani silver to flow into the Adriatic.

The Labeates are one of the smallest Illyrian tribes and we could encourage the Illyrian Greek cities (Epidamnos, Apollonia, Lissos, and Olokenion) to help us secure the colony. We want to expand into this region anyway and push the Epulian League, this gives us a reason to invade the region and bring it alongside.

Now, as to Dauni I feel that, while @Redium is correct when looking at things purely from the financial angle, only looking at things through that angle miss crucial elements of the matter. As things stand, the Dauni Kingdom is an active threat to Eretria. The actions King Ausculos at the begining of the war with Taras (alongside how the snipet in Arthias POV depicted him) have amply shown that he is essentially waiting for a good occasion to pounce.

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I definitely think we're going to have to go to war with, and eventually conquer, the Dauni. I believe that sincerely. I just don't think it solves our current revenue problems. It's going to be relatively expensive and it doesn't bring in that much money; tribute from Dauni and a trade route. Building the Saltworks of Lake Salpai is likely going to be a Great Work level investment. @Cetashwayo has previously indicated that there's going to be more involved there than just conquering the place.

I think that the Dauni conquest is unfortunately going to be at least 8 years out in game. We have our objectives for the next four years, and I think the four years after that are going to be devoted to financial reform. We might be able to fit in a conquest of the Dauni, but it would continue to push our finances to the breaking point. It also looks like the Peloponesian War is slowly into a detente right now as it did historically; we're going to have to be very careful if Korinth turns its gaze back to the Adriatic now that they're no longer distracted. We may be forced to deal with them instead during out next term.

 

[Kipeci]

We have several plans to take down the Dauni completely and bring them in our sphere, not doing so is actively worse than just taking a small chunk of them, and we cannot ignore the potential profit of those salt works.

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I'm fully prepared to ignore the salt pans, at least for the time being. The cost of invading the Dauni for years and future subjugation expenses and likely extra action(s) spent to invest in the current destroyed saltpans and bring them not only up to prior standards but on a vaster scale to be useful for Eretria's trade seems like a lot of effort that could be spent in trying to close out more trade deals instead, particularly with Adriatic colonies that we want greater ties with anyway so that they grow stronger sooner and have better relations with us.

Now, as to Dauni I feel that, while @Redium is correct when looking at things purely from the financial angle, only looking at things through that angle miss crucial elements of the matter. As things stand, the Dauni Kingdom is an active threat to Eretria. The actions King Ausculos at the begining of the war with Taras (alongside how the snipet in Arthias POV depicted him) have amply shown that he is essentially waiting for a good occasion to pounce.

Moreover, and while it hasn't been stated outright, I feel that the in-story characterisation of Ausculos made it a relatively safe bet that the ambitions his father formed in term of influence over other Lapgives have probably been inherited by Ausculos. At the very least, Arthais POV snipet gave me the impression he will do what he can to stir up trouble with the Peuketii and the Messapii, as well as taking advantage of any discontentment that exist.

Yes, the Dauni Kingdom can't really fight us one on one with reasonable ods of success but having to also fight a war against the Dauni kingdom while we handle a more dangerous ennemy might very well be what tip the balance from victory to defeat, as far as we are concerned.

So here you have an opponent who seek to make war with Eretria for, what we can admit OOC, completely understandable reasons but also seek to do so in the most favourable moment, as of yet luck and Memnon competence have prevented Ausculos from doing so but ods are the occasion the latter seek is gonna present itself at some point.

Now, to prevent that from happening they're is essentially two possibilities.

Option 1 is to try for a detente with Auscula, I must confess I am sceptical here. The Dauni Kingdom has been founded to resist greek encrochment so they're is some serious baggages between us and them that have only grown worse through the decades as tenses relations have continued ever since. Hell, we have gotten to a point where Ausculos is even willing to alienate Salapia, one of his own cities, by destroying its saltworks to prevent us from gaining commercially. Moreover, going for detente would have some risks too, as seeing Eretria attempt to mend fences with Ausculos would likely made those unhappy with his rule and looking at us for support give up and also do their best to reconcile with him and his successors, leaving us with a more dangerous opponent should we fail to reconcile as well as giving Ausculos time and geopolitical to make trouble with our Lapgive feudetaries.

Still, its always possible to try.

Option 2 is to turn the table on them by choosing a moment where Eretria is otherwise unnoccupied geopolitically (had we not been busy with Kimai the Exoria would have probably had a pretty strong case to make that now was a good moment last election) and have the war happen our own terms instead of them. In many ways this would be similar to decision make to attack the Peucetii immediatelly, before they could be ready, in the first itteration of the quest.

So, like often in this quest we have, to take some of Cavalier words an ''idealistic'' and a ''cynical'' path. In this instance I would tend to go with the cynical one and while I acknowledge I tend go more often with the latter then the former I do feel the idealistic is simply too farfetch considering past Dauni-Eretrian relationships.



While things might have changed we did get indications in the past that fortifications Dauni town might have are simply not near as formidable as what Eretria and Taras have and would therefore be far more takable. Still I do feel you are touching a key point here: the ''win one battle and get them to agree to an advantageous peace'' model we have followed in the past won't work with the Dauni since we would be looking for at the very least regime change in a campaign against Ausculos, and for that you need a more complete victory then what we have won against, say Taras or even the Liburnians. I would say a two or three years war, instead of a one season of campaign, is likely to be in store in such a conflict.

As for wheter things would have changed all that much when it come to the Dauni towns and their relationships with Ausculos in the last years I would say its certainly possible things have changed but I would also not necessarely see it as likely. The core of the anti-Ausculos sentiment was lead by Herdonia and Salapia the last time around, and that latter have, at the very least, not seemingly allowed to get their saltworks back on or been compensated otherwise so they are probably still angry at their king.

As for the Samnites, I don't see why having them as neighbours of some of ours vassals would necessarely be more of a danger then having the Lucanians as neighbours of the Peuketii. Granted, the invasion of Campania shows how potentially dangerous they can be but it also mean that much of the demographic pressures they faced has been alieviated, reducing the risk of similar invasion happening for the time being.

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His opportunistic attempt to go to war with Eretria, possible only due to our pending full engagement against a peer power, fell flat on its face and embarrassed him as we were able to sufficiently bribe his cities into saying that a war with Eretria would be a disaster that risks civil strife. I don't think he'll be in a hurry to repeat that experience. Since that time, the more intimidating foes of Eretria have either been made neutral (Taras) or isolated and minimized relative to Eretrian allies (Syrakousai), and as we seek closer ties with Athens and try to seal off Korinth's way to worm up through the Adriatic that further limits the big enemies that we're up against. Other more limited engagements such as we had against the Liburnians do not send out enough of our men for the Dauni to have a chance to successfully attack us, as their forces are just too small and weak while alone.

As such, I feel relatively comfortable with leaving them in place. They are independently constructing fortifications against Samnite incursions and focusing their efforts that way more and more as we drop in the lists of their primary threat through not attacking and harassing them, forming as a sort of wall to Samnite expansion; one that we could easily pledge to shore up, should they be attacked. I'd much rather that they and the shepherds exhaust themselves in a conflict ere we sweep in to the area rather than the other way around in the shepherds' favor. I'd much rather that we focus on one barbarian threat at a time and it's a lot easier to intervene against the Lucanians getting up to no good if we do not simultaneously have to protect vulnerable territory from the Samnites; bordering both at once puts significantly more on our plate than if the Samnites are mostly blocked out by a strong buffer.

 

[McLuvin]

I'm fully prepared to ignore the salt pans, at least for the time being. The cost of invading the Dauni for years and future subjugation expenses and likely extra action(s) spent to invest in the current destroyed saltpans and bring them not only up to prior standards but on a vaster scale to be useful for Eretria's trade seems like a lot of effort that could be spent in trying to close out more trade deals instead, particularly with Adriatic colonies that we want greater ties with anyway so that they grow stronger sooner and have better relations with us.

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You clearly don't understand just how critical the salt trade was in this period, and how profitable it would be if we could control it.

Nor do you seem to comprehend the fact that subjugating the Messappi cost us relatively little outside of a war with Taras, and the Dauni are far far from Taras' equal.

 

[phil03]

I definitely think we're going to have to go to war with, and eventually conquer, the Dauni. I believe that sincerely. I just don't think it solves our current revenue problems. It's going to be relatively expensive and it doesn't bring in that much money; tribute from Dauni and a trade route. Building the Saltworks of Lake Salpai is likely going to be a Great Work level investment. @Cetashwayo has previously indicated that there's going to be more involved there than just conquering the place.

I think that the Dauni conquest is unfortunately going to be at least 8 years out in game. We have our objectives for the next four years, and I think the four years after that are going to be devoted to financial reform. We might be able to fit in a conquest of the Dauni, but it would continue to push our finances to the breaking point. It also looks like the Peloponesian War is slowly into a detente right now as it did historically; we're going to have to be very careful if Korinth turns its gaze back to the Adriatic now that they're no longer distracted. We may be forced to deal with them instead during out next term.

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I don't disagree but my preocupations goes more to the geopolitical side of things. I am also absolutely not saying we should disregard any other pressing matters in other but to not take care of the issue the next time we have free hands would be playing with fire IMO.

As to Corinth, I am cautiously optimistic: even if Athens does end up giving back some of the islands it has taken they will still take sometime to recover and will be hesitant to go out in force since the Peace of Nicias is less détente then a truce. Corinth will recover some freedom of action yes, but it won't be freed of any pressure from Athens in one fell swoop, especially with Kerkyra set to stay in the Delian League for the forseable future at this point.

His opportunistic attempt to go to war with Eretria, possible only due to our pending full engagement against a peer power, fell flat on its face and embarrassed him as we were able to sufficiently bribe his cities into saying that a war with Eretria would be a disaster that risks civil strife. I don't think he'll be in a hurry to repeat that experience. Since that time, the more intimidating foes of Eretria have either been made neutral (Taras) or isolated and minimized relative to Eretrian allies (Syrakousai), and as we seek closer ties with Athens and try to seal off Korinth's way to worm up through the Adriatic that further limits the big enemies that we're up against. Other more limited engagements such as we had against the Liburnians do not send out enough of our men for the Dauni to have a chance to successfully attack us, as their forces are just too small and weak while alone.

As such, I feel relatively comfortable with leaving them in place. They are independently constructing fortifications against Samnite incursions and focusing their efforts that way more and more as we drop in the lists of their primary threat through not attacking and harassing them, forming as a sort of wall to Samnite expansion; one that we could easily pledge to shore up, should they be attacked. I'd much rather that they and the shepherds exhaust themselves in a conflict ere we sweep in to the area rather than the other way around in the shepherds' favor. I'd much rather that we focus on one barbarian threat at a time and it's a lot easier to intervene against the Lucanians getting up to no good if we do not simultaneously have to protect vulnerable territory from the Samnites; bordering both at once puts significantly more on our plate than if the Samnites are mostly blocked out by a strong buffer.

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Arthais POV snipet spoke of Ausculos plots in the present, not the past. Granted, he might not be a completely reliable narrator but I do think he has a more then passable hindsight as to the internal situation of the Lapgives and the Dauni Kingdom and Eretria have had tense, at the very least, relations since the foundation of the former and Ausculos is, after all, Arpus successor so I would say how he his depicted there is more then plausible.

Overall I view the Dauni Kingdom as a truly independent actor, who doesn't simply react to Eretria. Maybe at some point the Anti-greek policy it pursued was, indeed, mostly reactive but now its simply is Auscula policy and has been for decades. Simply forgetting about them until latter is far more likely to see Ausculos work on giving his authority firmer footing so he can continue to pursue its present politics while also not running the risk of preventing a repeat of the fiasco of his abhorted attack on during the war with Taras then it is to see him turn his attention north and west.

As for the rest, I agree with that our biggest ennemies are, for the moment, contained and/or busy elsewhere but it is also precisely why we should take care of Ausculos at the first occasion, rather then see him ally with one of our peer ennemies, or at least take advantage of us being fighting them, when he will have the chance.

I also don't share the fear of seeing the Samnites swoop in that some have, especially since the intro snipet we got seeing things from their perspectives indicate that they mainly do so to relieve demographic pressure and that since they have just done so in Campania they are unlikely to need to do so for the time being.

 

[Kipeci]

You clearly don't understand just how critical the salt trade was in this period, and how profitable it would be if we could control it.

Nor do you seem to comprehend the fact that subjugating the Messappi cost us relatively little outside of a war with Taras, and the Dauni are far far from Taras' equal.

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There's a good deal of incredibly profitable things to trade in that don't require us to successfully prosecute a major war and then spend huge resources on developing saltpans before can even start to see any profit develop, and putting our focus there in the meantime misses out on the chance to shore up economic and diplomatic relations with our league members. I don't think that subjugating the Messappi at cost of war with Taras was worth it, myself, and although I don't doubt the outcome of a war with the Dauni I do think it would not be worth the bother of having to support a thoroughly weakened and resentful mass of more Iapygians against the incursions of the Samnites, salt or no salt. I believe there are much better avenues of expansion available.

Arthais POV snipet spoke of Ausculos plots in the present, not the past. Granted, he might not be a completely reliable narrator but I do think he has a more then passable hindsight as to the internal situation of the Lapgives and the Dauni Kingdom and Eretria have had tense, at the very least, relations since the foundation of the former and Ausculos is, after all, Arpus successor so I would say how he his depicted there is more then plausible.

Overall I view the Dauni Kingdom as a truly independent actor, who doesn't simply react to Eretria. Maybe at some point the Anti-greek policy it pursued was, indeed, mostly reactive but now its simply Auscula policy and has been for decade. Simply forgetting about them until latter is far more likely to see Ausculos work on giving his authority firmer footing so he can continue to pursue its present politics while also not running the risk of preventing a repeat of the fiasco of his abhorted attack on during the war with Taras then it is to see him turn his attention north and west.

As for the rest, I agree with that our biggest ennemies are, for the moment, contained and/or busy elsewhere but it is also precisely why we should take care of Ausculos at the first occasion, rather then see him ally with one of our peer ennemies when he will have the chance.

I also don't share the fear of seeing the Samnites swoop in then some have, especially since the intro snipet we got seeing things from their perspectives indicate that they mainly do so to relieve demographic pressure and that since they have just done so in Campania they are unlikely to need to do so for the time being.

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Naturally he would try to get any allies he could manage so as to improve his rather unfortunate situation, however it seems his words fell on deaf ears. He's had plenty of chances to cause trouble since the war with Taras but hasn't taken any of them, particularly in conflicts such as those we had with the Liburnians, however he has not taken up on the opportunity because he has failed to secure allies and if we're not fully committed as we would be against a Taras-tier threat then we will have a force available with which to punish him. In the meantime we in the Epulian League are only growing stronger as a threat and more distasteful to attack, as we receive more immigration and cities such as Pylona have increasing time and resources to fortify and develop themselves even as the league as a whole starts building up forces elsewhere.

Through what means is he to ally with Syrakousai, which is navally undeveloped and would have to march through many of our allies to even think of reaching us? With Taras, which holds the fraction that favors trade and peace with Eretria in supreme and despises Iapygians? Who do you propose that is capable of plausibly defeating Eretria and willing to ally with the Dauni?

If you are so worried about the Dauni plotting to attack us, weak as they are and having lost nearly every engagement they've had with our forces even when they've vastly outnumbered us, how much more dangerous would it be to have a question as to whether or not the Samnites would attack? Weakening the Dauni right on their doorstep is like dangling a piece of meat in front of a dog; even if they're not hungry, they may well still take the opportunity for the gift of easy land. They are after all accomplished warriors, and no one has begrudged more pastures; furthermore, if you look at the subdivisions, it appears that the Samnites nearest to us form a different internal faction of Samnites than those nearest to the new Campani (and therefore likely the primary contributors).

 

[McLuvin]

There's a good deal of incredibly profitable things to trade in that don't require us to successfully prosecute a major war and then spend huge resources on developing saltpans before can even start to see any profit develop, and putting our focus there in the meantime misses out on the chance to shore up economic and diplomatic relations with our league members. I don't think that subjugating the Messappi at cost of war with Taras was worth it, myself, and although I don't doubt the outcome of a war with the Dauni I do think it would not be worth the bother of having to support a thoroughly weakened and resentful mass of more Iapygians against the incursions of the Samnites, salt or no salt. I believe there are much better avenues of expansion available

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Except there are multiple issues with your assumptions.

A. That the Samnites will be a problem immediately or in the mid term when they've already expanded in a different direction and historically didn't become an issue for a decent length of time, and even then, they moved in a different direction, not towards the Dauni in large droves.
B. That if the Samnites are a problem allowing them to grow fat from taking the Dauni's wealth, land and salt won't make them an even worse prospect to deal with long term
C. That all the Dauni are resentful, when we have two of their settlements outright asking for annexation, and several others so indifferent they were easily bribed to go against their unpopular King in near revolt
D. That having said King, known for his ruthlessness and ambition as well as his willingness to outright attack, us as a neighbour, with time to solidify his shaky control of his people, is a better option than having Samnites who we can possibly negotiate with without serious historic baggage we have with the Dauni.

Then there's the fact that all the trade routes you suggest focusing on also take time, and are less profitable, hell, Ankon has existed for a long time and we're still not getting major windfall from the Murex trade yet.

Overall, you suggest we abandon the salt trade, leave an enemy on our door, all because of a vague fear of the Samnites, when allowing them to grow fat on the Dauni is a far worse long term issue and then you claim that it is not worth the effort financially? When we have seen, both with the Messappi and Peuketti, that having these vassals gives us bonus trade routes, good tribute, and a large amount of critical skirmishers and cavalry for our armies.

The Dauni can be conquered, the Dauni will be conquered, and the reasons not to do so are notably weak in comparison to the many reasons why we should finally solidify Hegemony over the Iapgyians.

 

[phil03]

There's a good deal of incredibly profitable things to trade in that don't require us to successfully prosecute a major war and then spend huge resources on developing saltpans before can even start to see any profit develop, and putting our focus there in the meantime misses out on the chance to shore up economic and diplomatic relations with our league members. I don't think that subjugating the Messappi at cost of war with Taras was worth it, myself, and although I don't doubt the outcome of a war with the Dauni I do think it would not be worth the bother of having to support a thoroughly weakened and resentful mass of more Iapygians against the incursions of the Samnites, salt or no salt. I believe there are much better avenues of expansion available.

Naturally he would try to get any allies he could manage so as to improve his rather unfortunate situation, however it seems his words fell on deaf ears. He's had plenty of chances to cause trouble since the war with Taras but hasn't taken any of them, particularly in conflicts such as those we had with the Liburnians, however he has not taken up on the opportunity because he has failed to secure allies and if we're not fully committed as we would be against a Taras-tier threat then we will have a force available with which to punish him. In the meantime we in the Epulian League are only growing stronger as a threat and more distasteful to attack, as we receive more immigration and cities such as Pylona have increasing time and resources to fortify and develop themselves even as the league as a whole starts building up forces elsewhere.

Through what means is he to ally with Syrakousai, which is navally undeveloped and would have to march through many of our allies to even think of reaching us? With Taras, which holds the fraction that favors trade and peace with Eretria in supreme and despises Iapygians? Who do you propose that is capable of plausibly defeating Eretria and willing to ally with the Dauni?

If you are so worried about the Dauni plotting to attack us, weak as they are and having lost nearly every engagement they've had with our forces even when they've vastly outnumbered us, how much more dangerous would it be to have a question as to whether or not the Samnites would attack? Weakening the Dauni right on their doorstep is like dangling a piece of meat in front of a dog; even if they're not hungry, they may well still take the opportunity for the gift of easy land. They are after all accomplished warriors, and no one has begrudged more pastures; furthermore, if you look at the subdivisions, it appears that the Samnites nearest to us form a different internal faction of Samnites than those nearest to the new Campani (and therefore likely the primary contributors).

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Acquiring new trade network is indeed a great thing but keeping them, alongside those we have, is also necessary. For that we have to ensure that we don't suffer any geopolitical reverses, and that might sometime means having fights where it isn't immediately profitable to do so, such his the price of the security of the city.

In any case the saltworks are likely to more then pay for the war and the investment put in them in the long run and that's not talking of the extra numbers to our armies they will provide.

Ausculos hasn't caused moved when we where with the Liburnians because, as you have stated yourself, they simply aren't enough of a diversion to make it a smart move for him to do so. He has to wait for us to be stuck with peer power, or an alliance big enough to be trouble. Until then he won't make any moves that would be overly risky but that doesn't mean he isn't acting behind the scene (one of the reasons we need to properly integrate the Messapii too) and it certainly doesn't mean he won't take advantage of opportunities that might present themselves to him in the future. To be sure, being directly allied to our ennemies would make him all the more dangerous but even without that he can still simply take advantage of our forces being busy elsewhere to move.

As for the Samnites, I can return the question to you: if they are so strong and so expansionist while the Dauni are so weak why have they yet to move? And one the same trend, if the Dauni are so supposedly weak already wouldn't any further weakness a war against us would bring be more then compensated by them being more our vassals.

As things stand, the glimpse we got in the Samnite way of viewing things clearly spoke of an expedition such as the one organised against Campania to be a Pan-Samnite affairs motivated by Pan-Samnite issues. Moreover, and in any events, I rather deal with descentralised tribes with whom we don't have a past of hostility then with a unified Dauni kingdom who has always pursued an anti-Eretrian policy.

Honestly, I feel the matter of Kimai has lead some to give a big of an oversized place to the Samnites in our foreign policy calculations. Yes, they can be fierce opponents and should certainly not be discounted as a potential issue but having them as neighbours of Dauni vassals isn't massively different then having the Lucanians as neighbours of the Peuketii.