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I'm a High Fantasy Tax Collector, So What? A CKII Tax Collector Quest

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Sirrocco said:
Check me if I'm wrong, but... getting a 35 when you start with a 32.8 isn't all that hard, right? I mean, I don't know the mathing for this quest particularly well, but that seems like a roll that's still likely to succeed. Am I missing something?
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Yes, but getting there requires an enormous investment of resources, and passing up several other options that would auto-pass.

Additionally, his plan is completely dependent on succeeding at that roll, if the roll fails, other actions will then dangerously over-extend us, arresting people without any support network to allow sustaining those arrests, and without gaining bonuses for next turn. It also would mean not taking actions to thwart the traitors actions to overturn the arrests we have already made. It's like making a double or nothing bet - but when we are already ahead and have no reason to take such a risk.

Why make an all or nothing bet that isn't a sure thing when you have other options that are a sure bet, and that while not providing complete victory in a single turn, would significantly advance the case and leave us well prepared for next turn?

I mean, his plan was originally built around making this a certain victory - but the mechanics do not allow what he thought they would. Shouldn't that mean reconsidering the commitment to such a plan?
 
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@huhYeahGoodPoint Does the purchase of items need to be included in the plan, or is that a separate vote?

I'm fine either way, but right now some people have it in the plan, while others have it as a separate vote. We ought to make sure everyone knows what the rules are before the votes gets called. Otherwise it's going to be pretty messy and hard to count.
 
Elder Haman said:
On a more general anlaysis, this is a rather risky plan, with multiple actions that might fail, despite using three Minor Boons. I'd suggest dropping the High Clergy and instead use the Free Action to provide aid to The Streets action. The Streets and the Neutral Nobility are the most likely powers to aid us against the Traitor Nobles, so I'd recommend focusing on them instead of spreading ourselves so thin on Diplomacy.
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If everyone else is rallying against the traitor nobles, the neutral nobility is likely going to stay neutral or side against their rivals whilst everyone else is hating on them. As for the High Clergy and Guildmasters, they are influential players and combined with the streets, the traitor nobles will have very limited ability to act as they cannot simply crush such opposition without making their situation a lot worse. And while they aren't guaranteed to work, I feel that the low rolls need and the widespread of actions means that we will get at least some of them and there is a good chance we can get all of them.

Like the nobility is strong and powerful, but they are not uncontested and we can be overwhelmed. Also Local Spirits has a 19% chance of success not 30%.
 
Elder Haman said:
@huhYeahGoodPoint Does the purchase of items need to be included in the plan, or is that a separate vote?

I'm fine either way, but right now some people have it in the plan, while others have it as a separate vote. We ought to make sure everyone knows what the rules are before the votes gets called. Otherwise it's going to be pretty messy and hard to count.
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I'm going to be handcounting the majority votes - besides, voting deadline is almost upon us anyway so it's not like I really have time to change the format without actually confusing everyone. Vote close will be sometime around and , so, vote quick if you want to be counted.
 
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Oshha said:
If everyone else is rallying against the traitor nobles, the neutral nobility is likely going to stay neutral or side against their rivals whilst everyone else is hating on them. As for the High Clergy and Guildmasters, they are influential players and combined with the streets, the traitor nobles will have very limited ability to act as they cannot simply crush such opposition without making their situation a lot worse. And while they aren't guaranteed to work, I feel that the low rolls need and the widespread of actions means that we will get at least some of them and there is a good chance we can get all of them.

Like the nobility is strong and powerful, but they are not uncontested and we can be overwhelmed. Also Local Spirits has a 19% chance of success not 30%.
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Yes, but why spend the money, boons, and risk failure on the Guildmasters and High Clergy when you can get the Neutral Nobles at a quarter of the cost, and no risk of failure?

The Streets allow overwhelming the traitors, so why not focus on them and make sure you get it? With The Streets behind us, and the Neutral Nobles supporting us, we don't need the Guildmasters or the High Clergy. Saving large amounts of budget, at least two minor Boons, and has zero chance of failure (One Free Action + 1 Minor Boon will make The Streets auto-success).

It's less expenditure of resources, for a more certain gain.

Also, thanks for the correction on Local Spirits, edited to note that.
 
Elder Haman said:
It's less expenditure of resources, for a more certain gain.
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It is also for less gains. The Guildmasters and High Clergy are more useful than the Neutral Nobles whilst letting us do more thanks to greater influence and I would strongly advise against assuming that we don't need them or underestimating their power and influence. The Neutral Nobles are already staying out of it while the Guildmasters and High Clergy may choose to side with our enemies. Your suggestion is less risky and costly, but has far less rewards as well.

I personally consider the rewards to be worth the risk and cost, especially since the risks are little.
 
Oshha said:
It is also for less gains. The Guildmasters and High Clergy are more useful than the Neutral Nobles whilst letting us do more thanks to greater influence and I would strongly advise against assuming that we don't need them or underestimating their power and influence. The Neutral Nobles are already staying out of it while the Guildmasters and High Clergy may choose to side with our enemies. Your suggestion is less risky and costly, but has far less rewards as well.

I personally consider the rewards to be worth the risk and cost, especially since the risks are little.
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Well, actually I think there is greater risk of the Neutral Lords seeing The Streets rise up and deciding that they need to side with their fellow nobles to preserve order.

Additionally, the Guildmasters and High Clergy have a lot less to offer us than The Streets or the Neutral Nobles.

The Guildmasters have coin, that's a powerful tool but when swords are drawn it's weaker than most. The High Clergy have influence, but again when swords are drawn they are the weaker card.

The Streets give us the numbers, they are the most important power in determining the winners in a fight. The Neutral Nobility have military might. Combined, we'd have the numbers, plus professional fighters to stiffen the ranks. It's the most potent combo considering the fact we are facing off against other nobles who are likely to resort to violence in their desperation, and have sigificant military power.

What specifically do the Guildmasters or High Clergy have to offer us that is more important than achieving superior physical force?

Vague statements of "do not underestimate their power" are not strong arguments.

Suppose the Guildmasters call in the debts owed by the traitorous Nobles. Well... what if the Nobles refuse to pay? Suppose the High Clergy denouce the traitorous Nobles as betraying the Spirits and Gods. Well, those Nobles then raise their household troops and storm the temples, killing the High Clergy. It will means terrible retribution for them later - after the Neutral Nobles flee to their estates to gather their forces, and the royal forces faces off against them... but with the Army and King far away in foreign lands, those consequences will be something that happens later. If they get desperate enough they might decide to gamble on "later" never catching up to them.

The only thing to protect against that is to get the Neutral Nobles or The Streets on our side. Preferably both.
 
Elder Haman said:
Well, those Nobles then raise their household troops and storm the temples, killing the High Clergy.
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Well, hope they got preparations to deal with the spirits then. :D
Cause I don't think they would be happy to have their shrines defaced, and the priests likely have at least some pull with that group.

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Elder Haman said:
Suppose the Guildmasters call in the debts owed by the traitorous Nobles. Well... what if the Nobles refuse to pay?
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This however, has some truth. Although a bit of prep and some luck could mean that they acquire the services of an adventurer, and some guild-masters might have some as retainer just in case, for situations when raw money and influence is not that useful.
 
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Elder Haman said:
Additionally, the Guildmasters and High Clergy have a lot less to offer us than The Streets or the Neutral Nobles.

The Guildmasters have coin, that's a powerful tool but when swords are drawn it's weaker than most. The High Clergy have influence, but again when swords are drawn they are the weaker card.
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The nobles cannot just draw swords on the church or guilds without going into outright revolt at which point we don't have to worry about trials or not because the nobles will be in a state of rebellion. The nobles might have more hard power, but this is a situation where soft power matters more. If it comes to a fight where soft power does matter, we have either won or lost because it means that the nobles have stopped planning to betray the crown and are actively rebelling. Once the rebellion is openly taking place, it is out of our hands and down to whether or not the loyalist can put down the rebellion.

I also think you don't realise how important soft power is. Yes, hard power trumps soft power at the end of the day, but there is plenty before that. The traitor nobles aren't just going to trivially burn down the social order by putting the guilds and church to the sword. First, they will need to convince their soldiers to actually do that despite it almost certainly going to have some negative consequences for them and two, the other nobles aren't just going to sit back and let their fellow nobles burn the city to the ground because hey, that is where they also keep their stuff.

And that is before we take spirits into account. Do you think powerful spirits like Justice, Order or Oskaria are just going to let the traitor nobles start destroying society? Your fears of the traitor nobility's hard power trumping the soft power of the church and guilds is technically true, if it comes to that point, it is already the endgame and out of our hands on top of the traitor nobles having to be that crazy and/or desperate to push that nuclear button.

When operating in a functioning society, soft power is important and even if a certain group wants to use hard power to trump the soft power in that society, they will have to contend with the hard power of everyone else who wants to keep having a functional society.

Edit: And if the traitor nobles are powerful enough that they can just put everyone who opposes them in the capital to the sword, then we have already lost. We cannot compete against that and we have already failed to stop them and just don't know it yet.
 
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The nobles have the household guard,
The streets bring absurd numbers,
The priests bring a connection to the spirits,
The Guild-masters presumably have an adventurer or a few on payroll,
don't think any group would be trivial to deal with......
 
The traitor nobles have already planned treason against the state. That means they are far more likely to resort to hard power in this situation, because they are already banking on the idea that there won't be a state to take vengance on them for violating the rules of society.

If we weren't hunting traitor nobles, but rather hunting tax evaders, soft power would be more important, but when dealing with what we are, I think we should prioritize hard power.
 
Themarineguy said:
The nobles have the household guard,
The streets bring absurd numbers,
The priests bring a connection to the spirits,
The Guild-masters presumably have an adventurer or a few on payroll,
don't think any group would be trivial to deal with......
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Pretty much. If the traitors can just put anyone in the capital who opposes them to the sword, then we have already lost and just don't know it yet. Either they cannot do it and we still have a chance or we are already defeated.

Elder Haman said:
The traitor nobles have already planned treason against the state. That means they are far more likely to resort to hard power in this situation, because they are already banking on the idea that there won't be a state to take vengance on them for violating the rules of society.
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And then we will win due to them being stupid and picking an unwinnable fight or we have already lost because they have the ability to just openly kill anyone who opposes them and we cannot compete against that.

You are strongly overestimating the hard power of the traitor nobles or their stupidity. They do not win from burning down society because they are well-off parts of society. They will not shoot themselves in the foot unless they are certain that worst is going to happen to them if they don't and maybe not even then.
 
Elder Haman said:
The traitor nobles have already planned treason against the state. That means they are far more likely to resort to hard power in this situation, because they are already banking on the idea that there won't be a state to take vengance on them for violating the rules of society.
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There is one issue, these traitors are banking on Oskaria getting steamrolled and partitioned to their neighbors, not an internal coup, which implies they don't have the power to successfully pull it off yet. Once the plot gets set in motion and the invasion begins, that would likely change. They want to live to get the promised seats in the new order their outside allies promised.
 
Themarineguy said:
There is one issue, these traitors are banking on Oskaria getting steamrolled and partitioned to their neighbors, not an internal coup, which implies they don't have the power to successfully pull it off yet. Once the plot gets set in motion and the invasion begins, that would likely change. They want to live to get the promised seats in the new order their outside allies promised.
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Yes, but if desperate enough they could attempt to start it early to save their own bacon. I think we do have enough potential power to resist them, but without either the Neutral Nobles or The Streets firmly ready and alongside, I think they might try to kill their way out of the trap, and might even succeed.
 
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THE WEB OF TREASON MONTH 9 ROLL CALL
  • Apocrypha
    • Alright, 3-2-1-1-1, Plan If They Want A War, Give Them One wins.

    Encyclopaedia de Cille is bought.
    Wintercore Wand is bought.
    Precision Refinery is bought.

    You now owe two favors to the Mage-Smith Thiemo of Northern Vlona and one favor to the House of Count Nevin.

    Roll me 14d100s.

    Martial
    New Contracts
    DC: 20. Roll: 19 + 3.2 + 2.

    Cost: 4 Budget.

    Diplomacy
    The Presses
    DC: 22. Roll: 20 + 2.

    Cost: 4 Budget.

    Diplomacy
    The Guildmasters
    DC: 25. Roll: 20 + 2 + 1.

    Cost: 10 Budget.

    Diplomacy
    The High Clergy
    DC: 24. Roll: 20 + 2 + 1.

    Cost: 12 Budget.

    Diplomacy
    The Streets
    DC: 25. Roll: 18 + 2 + 1.

    Cost: 0 Budget.

    Intrigue
    Screw the Conspiracy
    DC: 25. Roll: 19 + 2.

    Learning
    Metal Stockpiles
    DC: 10. Roll: 23.

    Cost: 0 Budget.

    Stewardship
    Reply and Riposte
    DC: 24. Roll: 20 + 4.3.

    Cost: 2 Budget.

    PIety
    The Local Spirits
    DC: 27. Roll: 22 + 2.

    Cost: 2 Budget.

    Event Chain 2A

    Event Chain 2B

    Event Chain 2C

    Event Chain 3

    Random Event Roll
     
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