It only takes one mote, and can be turned off at will. It's also not all that hard to exploit if we do run into someone with E4+, and if their motivation is something we can destroy and already wanted to, then it's possible.
We are also kind of likely to run into E4+ things eventually. Gods, older Dragonblooded, etc. And if we find their motivation is something we can destroy easily, we can use this Charm.
It also works with someone with E3. Yep
So, more "My Lucky Chance" Charms:
Recklessness Is Business
Cost: — (1m); Mins: Essence 2; Type: Permanent
Keywords: None
Duration: Permanent
Prerequisite Charms: None
For Oramus possibility and uncertainty of the future are delights that must be savoured. When observing a game or some other event that involve luck the Infernal can automatically judge what are the general chances to success and what are those of failing. The greater the difference between them, the more precise the assessment ends up be. The Storyteller should communicate this information numerically, though the Infernal registers it as an intuition or guts' feeling.
Additionally, the Dragon Beyond the World suffers cheaters only as future victims to be brought down: if someone cheats in the game observed by the Infernal, or if the game is rigged somehow, the warlock knows it and as an Innate Power may spend 1 mote to make the source Obvious to his senses.
My Lucky Chance
Cost: 2m; Mins: Essence 2; Type: Simple
Keywords: Combo-OK, Shaping
Duration: Instant
Prerequisite Charms: Recklessness Is Business
The Pattern Spiders have faithfully worked the Loom of Fate for aeons without vacation, yet their mastery pales in comparison to the knowledge of those who built it. During the Time of Glory the Primordials would often shred the delicate strands of Fate for their own goals, uncaring of the ruined labour of beings so far beneath their notice. Oramus was no exception, but his love of chaos, randomness and unpredictability made so he applied said knowledge less to further his own goals...and more to keep himself entertained.
When engaging in a game of pure chance that cannot influenced by an Ability roll without cheating, such as the use of Larceny in a game of dice, the Infernal may mimic his Primordial patron in exploiting luck: so long as his action is accompanied by a relevant stunt that involves random chance, such as a fly landing on the right card or the warlock stumbling over a stone while tossing a dice, the Infernal rolls his permanent Essence plus the stunt rating. A success on the roll means the Infernal accomplishes his twisting of Fate, altering the outcome of the game of chance in his favour. The more successes on the roll, the higher the prize the warlock receives as probabilities align to reward him: if there is no prize, what increases is just how impressive to others the Infernal's victory appears.
The Shaping effect of this Charm targets the game itself, not any individual target: as such it can be countered only by anti-Shaping effects that operate on a large scale. If another participant or the ones manning the game cheat, their efforts automatically fail; in the case they use a Charm or another magical ability their rolls suffer an external penalty equal to the successes rolled by the Infernal. Finally, this Charm cannot obviously influence reality beyond what is allowed by a Stunt: an Infernal cannot bet that the sun will not raise the next day or that the sea will dry when he steps into it.
Whimsy Fate Amusement
Cost: —; Mins: Essence 2; Type: Permanent
Keywords: None
Duration: Indefinite
Prerequisite Charms: My Lucky Chance
Whilst many denizens of Creation rely on the machinations of Fate and seek accurate predictors of the future, Oramus comes from a time when the only possibilities were those forged from Chaos itself. Inspired by possibilities both real and imagined the Dragon beyond the World takes strength from both the greatest successes and the more unthinkable failures. Whenever the player of the Infernal either rolls a botch or succeeds an opposed check by twice or more the required number of successes he gains a point of temporary willpower.
Unexpected Coincidence Protection
Cost: 1m; Mins: Essence 2; Type: Reflexive (Step 2)
Keywords: Combo-OK
Duration: Instant
Prerequisite Charms: My Lucky Chance
Though Oramus does not control the chaos and strange fortune that flows from his very presence such effects are filled with his intent, sometimes creating a strange cloud of luck that expands itself in times of need. Against an unexpected attack this Charm removes that label, allowing the Exalt to defend normally. However, the effect manifest as a result of pure luck: from a stumble that causes an arrow to fly overhead to an Extra casually walking in front of the Infernal and taking the blow instead. The player must make an appropriate Stunt of the lucky way the Infernal manages to defend against the attack. This Charm costs zero motes if, due to the randomness of his defense, the Infernal remains unaware of the attack that happened and the attacker, though this doesn't apply to any other character present in the area.
There is also this, but I think it belongs to another Charmtree:
Detecting Chaos Motion
Cost: 4m; Mins: Essence 3; Type: Simple
Keywords: Combo-OK
Duration: Instant
Prerequisite Charms:
Oramus takes pride in being the master of both chaos and shaping existence, with insights that few others can even hope to grasp. His mere presence brings utter randomness to the world. Thus, he knows that the presence of any pattern proves the influence of others. This charm informs the user of the existence of any active uses of Essence within (Essence x5) yards, like committed motes or a Sorcerous effect, though not their nature or position. This effect is only effective if the user is not inside a location that is Wyld-tainted or geomantically powerful like a demesne, as these places overpower the necessarily subtle chaos of the effect.
An Essence 4 repurchase increases the detection area to (Essence x50) yards, allowing it to be used inside a geomantically powerful area. It also informs the user what is the minimum Essence requirement of the effects detected.
A final repurchase at Essence 5 increases the detection area to (Essence x500) yards and allows the Charm to be used in any Wyld-tainted location that is less chaotic than Deep Wyld.