Attempting to Fulfill the Plan MNKh Edition

[notgreat]

Here's my current plan prototype:

[] Plan Oil Roads
-[]4525/4985 Resources (460 Reserve), 46 Dice Rolled
-[]Infrastructure (12/9 Dice, 1015 R)
--[]Western USSR Regional Roads, 2 Dice (170 R)
--[]Ural Regional Roads, 4 Dice (340 R)
--[]Caucuses High Capacity Roads, 3 Dice (255 R)
--[]Caucuses Regional Roads, 1 Dice (85 R)
--[]Central Asian High Capacity Roads, 1 Dice (85 R)
--[]Power Grid Expansions, 1 Dice (80 R)
-[]Heavy Industry (5/5 Dice, 750 R)
--[]Bakchar Deposit Utilization(Stage 1), 5 Dice (750 R)
-[]Rocketry (2/2 Dice, 0 R)
--[]Approve Transfer of Venusian Funding, 1 Dice
--[]Allow Enterprise Bidding, 1 Dice
-[]Light and Chemical Industry (7/6 Dice, 960 R)
--[]Caspian Sea Petrochemical Extraction(Stage 1), 2 Dice (280 R)
--[]Samotor Field Development(Stage 1), 2 Dice (220 R)
--[]Consumer Goods Production Grants(Stage 1), 2 Dice (240 R)
--[]Self-Aligned Gate Prototypes, 1 Dice (220 R)
-[]Agriculture (6/6 Dice, 640 R)
--[]Agronomy Institutes, 1 Dice (100 R)
--[]Combined Agricultural Methodologies, 2 Dice (180 R)
--[]Third Generation Pesticides, 2 Dice (280 R)
--[]Land Control Commission, 1 Dice (80 R)
-[]Services (10/10 Dice, 1160 R)
--[]Distribution of Banking Branches, 1 Dice (80 R)
--[]Transportation Enterprises(Stage 2), 2 Dice (220 R)
--[]Legal Consulting Programs, 1 Dice (80 R)
--[]Universalization of Telephone Networking, 3 Dice (420 R)
--[]Solving the Garbage Problem, 3 Dice (360 R)
-[]Bureaucracy (4/4 Dice, 0 R)
--[]Coal-Industry Economization, 1 Dice
--[]Reorganization of Agricultural Subsidies, 1 Dice
--[]Price Loss Coverage, 1 Dice
--[]Farmer Flexibility Legislation, 1 Dice

It focuses mostly on completing the roads because we did just promise it. Throws 1 dice at the CA high-cap roads to attempt to at least do a little planning, I'm hoping to keep 1 dice/turn on them this plan and finish the Caucuses High Cap roads. To be safe, we would need an average of 10 dice on roads per turn. This turn I put 11 on roads, then next turn there will likely only be 9.

The anti-corruption campaign is at its absolute worst this turn. Next turn it should be gone which is +15, and then we also get +2 from Klim gaining more management experience. That +17 coming next turn is huge enough that we will want to put off most major expenses until then. In particular, the Sevastopol Technical Equipment Plants are direly needed but are also 300 RpD, so I'm leaning putting them off until next turn. HI will be taking multiple free dice that turn. I put 5 dice on Bakchar but that only gives a 76.6% chance of completing, so I don't put any dice on Bryansk Trucks in fear of it completing without Bakchar, which would lose us the Infra discount and completely ruin us. As long as we don't spend any steel though, we're safe for the turn.

I do, however, put one dice on the Self-Aligned Gate Prototypes because we've been previously informed that research projects like that are generally time-gated by the start date, whereas most projects are much more closely aligned with the actual progress listed. It still has a 67% chance of finishing as-is even with the massive anti-corruption penalty.

I'm not certain on the Bureaucracy options, particularly the Scientific Exchange Programs, I'm very open to arguments for other choices. I wanted Authorize Farmer-Programs, but I'm worried about the SupSov being very unhappy with that option.
edit: Swapped to Price Loss Coverage

 

[General_Urist]

Well then. We can't finish the Sevastopol plant (or anything else that uses steel) without upping Infra costs. One die on Sevastopol this turn to start it then. No sense in trying to one-turn Kursk, that'll just mean we can't finish anything else in HI anyway and we best get Kuzbas running.

EDIT: NotGreat's plan is a good starting point: my main gripes:
Starting central asian high capacity roads now. We should do that last, it's the one part of the road expansion we can politically get away with flopping.
Sevastopol I'd guess involves a fair bit of research into new CNC methods, so we should at least start it same as we start Self-Aligned Gates
I'd rather keep the Venera program going for a bit.
Since the big anti-corruption investigation is ending, we might not be able to Personally Asses Departments in the future so I want to hit Services now.

EDIT2: Oh right, forced focus on Bakchar. whoopsie, sorry for jumping the gun

 

[Red Rationalist]

Something I need to stress here: We have been really slacking off on agricultural reform. So far, the only political action we tried under Klimenko is to propose a new commission on agriculture, which is the bureaucratic equivalent of "I'll definitely take out the trash after I make a precise to-do list on all the various chores". And that one also got shot down.
So in light of this, I think we need to take 4 agricultural actions this turn to make meaningful progress on reforming agriculture. Other reforms like modernizing coal power plants can be delayed, but agri reform is very time-sensitive to our current plan. Once the plan ends, the SupSov will loose a lot interest in fixing agriculture, and our ability to do structural reforms will be greatly diminished.

In regard to the reforms needed, I would also write off scientific exchange. Our issue isn't that the agricultural sector doesn't know the planting techniques to get 5% more output with 2,5% increased capital costs, our issue is that our agricultural model overproduces grain to the point of crashing the domestic market. Economic efficiency isn't the problem, our mode of agricultural organization is. We need to enable farmers to diversify their production, and allow non-SOE farmers the ability to develop their farms via price insurance beyond just producing grain for subsidies in order to actually fix agriculture in the long run. Remember the agricultural insurance enterprises we built last turn? They are technically still illegal. That alone requires urgent action.

 

[notgreat]

Starting central asian high capacity roads now. We should do that last, it's the one part of the road expansion we can politically get away with flopping.

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Both Central Asian and Caucuses high cap roads are not politically required, but are economically crucial for the regional roads to be worthwhile. The Caucuses' are small enough that we can outright complete them, which my plan attempts to do immediately. Central Asia's are too big for that, but I'm hoping that at least starting them gives us a boost: the most important routes for getting the equipment used to build the regional roads will already be paved, and we'll have started planning out the high cap network and can thus build the regional roads with that in mind. Hence my plan of keeping 1 dice/turn on the CA high-cap roads.

Sevastopol I'd guess involves a fair bit of research into new CNC methods, so we should at least start it same as we start Self-Aligned Gates

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Possible, but 300R is a ton. This plan as-is might not be able to fully activate all dice next turn, adding more expense now might make things worse. Also, while Sevastopol will use new methodology, I don't think that counts as research in the same way that the computers action would (or the agri research for that matter)

I'd rather keep the Venera program going for a bit.

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Just wondering, why?

Since the big anti-corruption investigation is ending, we might not be able to Personally Asses Departments in the future so I want to hit Services now.

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I would think that since Personally Assess Departments is explicitly a personal action, it should be fine. That sort of investigation is entirely separate from the main anti-corruption investigations, though it may have new political costs if done after the anti-corruption is complete.

Other reforms like modernizing coal power plants can be delayed

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If we don't do it soon, we'll hit the 60 breakpoint on Coal price which would likely be very, very bad.

Remember the agricultural insurance enterprises we built last turn? They are technically still illegal. That alone requires urgent action.

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We currently have weather insurance, and that's fully legal as-is. That being said, market insurance is probably worthwhile, swapped that in.

 

[agumentic]

Alright, so here's my plan for thread's consideration.

In Infra, we go all-in on roads. Discounting Central Asian High Capacity ones, we need to invest approximately 25 dice over this and next two turns to complete SupSov's goal. I'd like to start strongly and have some buffer just in case our luck remains rotten, and so I go with full 9 dice investment, leaving the Power Grid for the next turn.

HI, we're on the verge of losing our steel discount for infrastructure, which would be absolutely crippling to our efforts. As this is the main sector that is facing the crisis, it needs strong investment, and so I go full six dice on Bakchar - that means we'll almost certainly complete it even if we roll badly, and if we roll well, the project has several stages, so our dice will not be wasted. We'll need more steel afterwards anyway. In addition to that, I start on Sevastopol to provide alternative for Gorky both to SupSov and to the people who will be fired during Gorky's reorganization, and also complete Bryansk Truck Plant to salvage our awful Capital Goods goal a bit. We'll almost certainly fail it anyhow, but there's a difference between failing what a lot of SupSov delegates views as the most important goal by an inch or by a mile. And it's profitable, and we still need the money.

Rocketry is not very interesting, we make a smaller, cheaper rocket and make the sector a bit more profitable. I am not married to the rocket, we can start on something else with our free budget.

For LCI, with two dice on each oil field, we have a good chance of completing both of them and getting the money while dropping oil prices. As our CMEA allies are starting to face issues due to the price of oil and have to buy it elsewhere, this is pretty important issue to address. Then, with two dice on Synthetic Rubber Plants, there's a good chance we finish them and drop the price of Petrochemicals into the 20-40 bracket, which will have a "Greatly Increased Growth" effect, which to me sounds like just the thing we need to recover from the crisis.

Agriculture, we're running into the limits of traditional moneymaking through moolags. We don't have the dice to build both them and complete other, necessary projects, therefore I only start with them. As replacement, we get family farms to buy animals with Combined Methodologies and also fund the next generation of Pesticides to improve the gains.

In Services, we get to the much requested Garbage Problem and Telephone Networking, while also completing a few projects we started the turn before.

Now, Bureaucracy, we need to start pushing forward actual agricultural reforms. I pick Land Limits and Price Loss Coverage as the two for this turn - and I would dearly like to address the subsidy issue at least a little bit, but this is already a rather politically fraught turn and the subsidies are the biggest red button. So, let's let private farmers to have a lot of land and let them actually insure their produce, so they can try new methods without risk. We also need the Coal Economization, because otherwise we're gonna hit the 60-80 bracket for coal prices, which is likely to be awful in many ways.

---

[] Plan Attempting to Resolve the Crisis
-[]4855/4985 Resources (130 Reserve), 46 Dice Rolled
-[]Infrastructure (9/9 Dice, 765 R)
--[]Western USSR Regional Roads, 3 Dice (255 R), 61%
--[]Caucuses High Capacity Roads, 4 Dice (340 R), 67%
--[]Central Asian Regional Roads, 2 Dice (170 R)
-[]Heavy Industry (8/5 Dice, 1360 R)
--[]Bakchar Deposit Utilization(Stage 1), 6 Dice (900 R), 89%
--[]Sevastopol Technical Equipment Plants, 1 Dice (300 R)
--[]Bryansk Truck Plant, 1 Dice (160 R), 79%
-[]Rocketry (2/2 Dice, 0 R)
--[]Light Launcher Programs, 1 Dice
--[]Allow Enterprise Bidding, 1 Dice
-[]Light and Chemical Industry (6/6 Dice, 800 R)
--[]Caspian Sea Petrochemical Extraction(Stage 1), 2 Dice (280 R), 53%
--[]Samotor Field Development(Stage 1), 2 Dice (220 R), 81%
--[]Synthetic Rubber Plants(Stage 2), 2 Dice (300 R), 60%
-[]Agriculture (7/6 Dice, 810 R)
--[]Domestic Meat Programs(Stage 4), 1 Dice (110 R)
--[]Agronomy Institutes, 1 Dice (100 R), 63%
--[]Combined Agricultural Methodologies, 2 Dice (180 R), 53%
--[]Third Generation Pesticides, 3 Dice (420 R), 71%
-[]Services (10/10 Dice, 1160 R)
--[]Distribution of Banking Branches, 1 Dice (80 R), 80%
--[]Transportation Enterprises(Stage 2), 2 Dice (220 R), 32%
--[]Legal Consulting Programs, 1 Dice (80 R), 46%
--[]Universalization of Telephone Networking, 3 Dice (420 R), 57%
--[]Solving the Garbage Problem, 3 Dice (360 R), 39%
-[]Bureaucracy (4/4 Dice, 0 R)
--[]Coal-Industry Economization, 1 Dice
--[]Break Private Land Limits, 1 Dice
--[]Price Loss Coverage, 1 Dice
--[]Assess the Supreme Soviet, 1 Dice

 

[Red Rationalist]

If we don't do it soon, we'll hit the 60 breakpoint on Coal price which would likely be very, very bad.

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Sure, but soon can also be a done a turn or two from now. We have plenty of coal fields open, and the ability to get considerably more coal from the kuzbas deposit next turn, when the canal system opens. I would like to see a strong push on agricultural reform this turn, so we don't continue to neglect reform like we did before. This push would also allow us a better picture of the necessary follow-ups for our core reforms, helping us prioritize.

We currently have weather insurance, and that's fully legal as-is. That being said, market insurance is probably worthwhile, swapped that in.

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The blurb is very explicit in pointing out that ag insurance is operating in a legal grey zone.

Providing physical outreach to the average farmer to ensure a steady increase in the use of insurance and the reduction of risk has been challenging, but massive economical returns are expected. Policies to formally expand the insurance are still in consideration leaving the expansion in a legalistic gray area. As the Supreme Soviet has better things to do, the expansion has still broadly passed as it is not like forming a new enterprise is outside the remit of the ministry.

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Moot point with you including it, but it's not a great idea for the ministry to keep an arguably illegal business going for multiple years, rather than doing it in anticipation of insurance reform the coming year. That could become ammunition against us by hostile factions.

 

[agumentic]

Sure, but soon can also be a done a turn or two from now.

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No, soon as in "this turn, right this moment". Our current coal price is 53, it passively increases by 5 to 58 and first stage of Bakchar we desperately need is +2. We're gonna hit 60 this turn if we don't do something to address it, and one Bureaucracy dice is the best we can do.

 

[Red Rationalist]

No, soon as in "this turn, right this moment". Our current coal price is 53, it passively increases by 5 to 58 and first stage of Bakchar we desperately need is +2. We're gonna hit 60 this turn if we don't do something to address it, and one Bureaucracy dice is the best we can do.

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Or you could delay building the steel mill for a bit during the coal crunch and build coal mines instead. I don't see any project increasing steel consumption passively, and with infrastructure shifting towards regional road construction, the steel need won't increase that much.

 

[Dwergar]

Why can't we go for space stations this turn? We have 10 in the bank and RLA-5 comes out of development this turn, so we can go for both space stations and light launchers - or go for space stations and contracts, and get light launchers going next turn.

 

[agumentic]

Or you could delay building the steel mill for a bit during the coal crunch and build coal mines instead. I don't see any project increasing steel consumption passively, and with infrastructure shifting towards regional road construction, the steel need won't increase that much.

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We have a literal SupSov mandate to build a steel mill and we're dancing on the edge of losing our steel discount even if we don't do anything. Not building it is not in the cards.

 

[Red Rationalist]

We have a literal SupSov mandate to build a steel mill and we're dancing on the edge of losing our steel discount even if we don't do anything. Not building it is not in the cards.

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Ok, fine. We have to put dice on it, but a focus towards it doesn't mean we have to devote enough dice to finish it this turn. And quite frankly, loosing the infra discount is less of an issue than an energy crisis caused by neglecting coal. We can avoid further loosing the bonus by not doing further projects with steel consumption, but we should probably also build a coal mine to accompany it. Your plan of only trying to finish the bakchar steel mill is misguided.

 

[agumentic]

Ok, fine. We have to put dice on it, but a focus towards it doesn't mean we have to devote enough dice to finish it this turn. And quite frankly, loosing the infra discount is less of an issue than an energy crisis caused by neglecting coal. We can avoid further loosing the bonus by not doing further projects with steel consumption, but we should probably also build a coal mine to accompany it. Your plan of only trying to finish the bakchar steel mill is misguided.

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Or we can just do the sane thing and invest one bureaucracy die to retire the coal power plants that need to be retired a bit early, use the freed up HI dice to finish the steel mill to address both the crisis in HI sector and the price of steel and then complete Kuzbas/Kansk-Achinsk next turn to drop the price of coal. Also, losing the steel discount would be awful, that'd be an equivalent of losing ~300 resources per turn - and it can happen even if don't do anything to increase the price of steel on our own, just if the crisis develops in an unfortunate way with either more steel mills collapsing or the steel-consuming enterprises recovering faster than steel-producing ones.

 

[General_Urist]

[] Plan Spending Big On Fuel and Transportation for the New Soviet Farmer + High Tech Development
-[]4830/4985 Resources (155 Reserve), 46 Dice Rolled
-[]Infrastructure (11/9 Dice, 930 R)
--[]Western USSR Regional Roads, 3 Dice (255 R)
--[]Ural Regional Roads, 3 Dice (255 R)
--[]Caucuses High Capacity Roads, 4 Dice (340 R)
--[]Power Grid Expansions, 1 Dice (80 R)
-[]Heavy Industry (6/5 Dice, 1050 R)
--[]Bakchar Deposit Utilization(Stage 1), 5 Dice (750 R)
--[]Sevastopol Technical Equipment Plants, 1 Dice (300 R)
-[]Rocketry (2/2 Dice, 0 R)
--[]New Crewed Programs, 1 Dice
--[]Allow Enterprise Bidding, 1 Dice
-[]Light and Chemical Industry (7/6 Dice, 1020 R)
--[]Caspian Sea Petrochemical Extraction(Stage 1), 2 Dice (280 R)
--[]Samotor Field Development(Stage 1), 2 Dice (220 R)
--[]Synthetic Rubber Plants(Stage 2), 2 Dice (300 R)
--[]Self-Aligned Gate Prototypes, 1 Dice (220 R)
-[]Agriculture (6/6 Dice, 670 R)
--[]Domestic Meat Programs(Stage 4), 1 Dice (110 R)
--[]Agronomy Institutes, 1 Dice (100 R)
--[]Combined Agricultural Methodologies, 2 Dice (180 R)
--[]Third Generation Pesticides, 2 Dice (280 R)
-[]Services (10/10 Dice, 1160 R)
--[]Distribution of Banking Branches, 1 Dice (80 R)
--[]Transportation Enterprises(Stage 2), 2 Dice (220 R)
--[]Legal Consulting Programs, 1 Dice (80 R)
--[]Universalization of Telephone Networking, 3 Dice (420 R)
--[]Solving the Garbage Problem, 3 Dice (360 R)
-[]Bureaucracy (4/4 Dice, 0 R)
--[]Coal-Industry Economization, 1 Dice
--[]Break Private Land Limits, 1 Dice
--[]Price Loss Coverage, 1 Dice
--[]Personally Asses Department(Services), 1 Dice

10 dice on roads to show we're trying, both oil fields for $$ and synthetic rubber to get petrochem costs down. Bureaucracy shuts down the old coal plants (aside from keeping coal affordable this should remove a fair amount of smog production) and investigates services (which I will not drop unless we get QM confirmation that the option will remain available in future turns), while helping the farmers with the two actions Agumentic notes are unlikely to start a political fire. Also I invest big bucks in starting the two high-tech projects of Sevastopol and Self-Aligned Gates because best not to delay those.

If the threadviet really wants it I can make a plan that doesn't complete the steel mill in favor of completing the coal mine, and add a third agri action to bureucracy, but I'd rather not twist SupSob's coattails.

 

[agumentic]

--[]Personally Asses Department(Services), 1 Dice

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That would be a rather impolitic action. Last turn everyone in the MNKh leadership agreed to provide the lists of people who can be purged without much trouble to satisfy the populace and SupSov into leaving us alone, trying to dig deeper than that would mean going back on our word and starting a fight within the ministry.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Or we can just do the sane thing and invest one bureaucracy die to retire the coal power plants than need to be retired a bit early, use the freed up HI dice to finish the steel mill to address both the crisis in HI sector and the price of steel and then complete Kuzbas/Kansk-Achinsk next turn to drop the price of coal.

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The HI dice won't be freed up. Coal demand is increasing by 4 per turn due to the coal power construction, the coal rationalization is a one-time discount of 5. We can get that one-time discount just as well next turn, it makes no difference. We need to construct new coal mines to meet demands, but we don't need more steel each turn if we plan ahead. The idea we can just not build any coal mines this turn is simply wrong, we need a coal mine at least half way done by the start of next turn to avoid an energy crisis.

 

[agumentic]

The HI dice won't be freed up. Coal demand is increasing by 4 per turn due to the coal power construction, the coal rationalization is a one-time discount of 5. We can get that one-time discount just as well next turn, it makes no difference. We need to construct new coal mines to meet demands, but we don't need more steel each turn if we plan ahead. The idea we can just not build any coal mines this turn is simply wrong, we need a coal mine at least half way done by the start of next turn to avoid an energy crisis.

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It saves us the need to invest into the coal mines this turn, which is the most important one. Next turn, we'll have finished the steel plant and have enough of a buffer that the passive steel price increase and possible crisis modifier movements won't threaten the discount, which means we will be free to invest, say three dice into Kuzbas and have 90% chance of completion.

 

[Red Rationalist]

It saves us the need to invest into the coal mines this turn, which is the most important one. Next turn, we'll have finished the steel plant and have enough of a buffer that the passive steel price increase and possible crisis modifier movements won't threaten the discount, which means we will be free to invest, say three dice into Kuzbas and have 90% chance of completion.

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A 90% chance isn't good enough when it comes to avoiding a potential energy crisis. I also don't see how finishing the steel mill this turn is the most important thing. The SupSov gave us a mandate to start construction on it, but their focus doesn't mean "make sure the finish it this turn". If I were to guess, the steel mill would have been picked to get us to start economically developing the outer regions of the SU, in an effort to reduce inequality. Not because we need more steel right this year. Additionally, the SupSov also expects to avoid massive coal imports in our economic planning, which means getting close to the next threshold also causes political issues. In my opinion, the project can be safely finished next turn and should be balanced with coal extraction.

 

[General_Urist]

That would be a rather impolitic action. Last turn everyone in the MNKh leadership agreed to provide the lists of people who can be purged without much trouble to satisfy the populace and SupSov into leaving us alone, trying to dig deeper than that would mean going back on our word and starting a fight within the ministry.

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Ehh good point but I'm willing to roll this die. Klimenko as a sociologist is uniquely equipped to identify graft in the Services sector that more traditional investigative implements of the MNKh might miss.

The idea we can just not build any coal mines this turn is simply wrong, we need a coal mine at least half way done by the start of next turn to avoid an energy crisis.

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Is 88/200 on Kuzbas not close enough to half way for you? We can put enough dice on it next turn for 94% with omake completion chance while still being able to do other stuff in HI.

EDIT: If the threadviet is insistent on it I can drop the steel mill to 4 dice which probably won't flub SupSov, and shift the last die to Kuzbas for insurance.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Is 88/200 on Kuzbas not close enough to half way for you? We can put enough dice on it next turn for 90+ completion chance while still being able to do other stuff in HI.

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No, actually. Only putting dice on it next turn carries a risk I'm not comfortable with. There is always a chance for a low roll, or a Nat 1 fucking everything up. It's better to distribute this risk over 2 turns, so we can protect ourselves somewhat next turn instead of blindly developing the SupSov favourite project. The SupSov also expects us to think critically, and we shouldn't put their orders over economic health.

 

[agumentic]

A 90% chance isn't good enough when it comes to avoiding a potential energy crisis. I also don't see how finishing the steel mill this turn is the most important thing. The SupSov gave us a mandate to start construction on it, but their focus doesn't mean "make sure the finish it this turn". If I were to guess, the steel mill would have been constructed based on a getting us to start economically developing the outer regions of the SU, in an effort to reduce inequality. Not because we need more steel this year. The project can be safely finished next turn.

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Because we're on the edge of losing our steel discount and getting hit with -300 resources per turn, because thousands of people working in the steel mills got booted out as they collapsed and that might not be the end of it, because we need the steel for multiple important projects like cars and Sevastopol. This project can't be safely finished next turn, because even leaving aside all the cons of not finishing Bryansk plant this turn, passive gain leaves us with the price of 38 steel. Anything else happens, and we're shit out of luck and I will not risk it - and even if it doesn't, that means we'll need to invest into completing the steel mill next turn anyway. Coal, on the other hand, will have a comfortable 55, and next turn we can invest three dice for a 90% chance of finishing or 4 dice for a 99% chance of finishing it if you're really paranoid. It just makes no sense not to address these issues one by one.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Because we're on the edge of losing our steel discount and getting hit with -300 resources per turn, because thousands of people working in the steel mills got booted out as they collapsed and that might not be the end of it, because we need the steel for multiple important projects like cars and Sevastopol. This project can't be safely finished next turn, because even leaving aside all the cons of not finishing Bryansk plant this turn, passive gain leaves us with the price of 38 steel. Anything else happens, and we're shit out of luck and I will not risk it - and even if it doesn't, that means we'll need to invest into completing the steel mill next turn anyway. Coal, on the other hand, will have a comfortable 55, and next turn we can invest three dice for a 90% chance of finishing or 4 dice for a 99% chance of finishing it if you're really paranoid. It just makes no sense not to address these issues one by one.

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We have been here before, but steel price isn't increasing every turn if we avoid heavy industry projects. We have a budget of 5 steel , with no demand increase if we are being smart. We are somewhat close to losing the bonus, but only we loose the bonus if we fuck up.
I acknowledge the need to provide further employment, but we are doing this across every sector every turn. We can delay heavy industrial development to stabilize coal prices, in fact we should do that. Describing our threshold of 55 as comfortable when our need increases by 4 each turn regardless of our actions is also simply insane.

 

[agumentic]

but steel price isn't increasing every turn if we avoid heavy industry projects.

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Yes, it does.

Steel: (35/41/62) Strong Export (20-40 -20 RpD Infrastructure, Increased HI Growth)
+1 Construction Industry Expansions
+2 Net Civilian Spending

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Edit: Oh hey, and we'll also lose "Increased HI Growth" if it will go over 40. I am sure that'll go over well in the already struck sector.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Yes, it does.

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The indicator just doesn't show that. It shows a general increase in heavy industry due to steel prices over time, but not steel demand increasing by a set amount each turn. Power demand (and the coupled demand to keep coal in the middle bracket) increases considerably faster than steel demand does, your conclusion is backwards.

 

[agumentic]

The indicator just doesn't show that. It shows a general increase in heavy industry due to steel prices over time, but not steel demand increasing by a set amount each turn. Power demand (and the coupled demand to keep coal in the middle bracket) increases considerably faster than steel demand does, your conclusion is backwards.

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What the hell are you talking about? That's exactly what the indicator shows, the price of steel goes up by three every turn because of the expansion of construction industry and because of civilian spending.

 

[Red Rationalist]

What the hell are you talking about? That's exactly what the indicator shows, the price of steel goes up by three every turn because of the expansion of construction industry and because of civilian spending.

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Ok, I stand corrected due to misreading the notation. With this being said, this mean we need to finish the steel mill next turn, in order to avoid the avoid losing the bonus. We need one project to stabilize the steel price for now, whereas our coal demand will consistently be near the upper limit due to auto coal-power. Avoiding a steel price increase will also require stabilizing coal. And frankly, we are less damaged by steel becoming moderately expensive than by power considerably increasing in price. One is an economic shock in a sector, the other a crisis across the economy.