Remove ads

Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
Voting is open
Reader mode
[X] [COLLEGE] Nothing
[X] [BELEGAR] Nothing

Potentially having to spend time soothing ruffled feathers (heh) for what's a pretty minor issue doesn't sound great to me.
 
[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon

Woltaire said:
...it is a pretty good hat...I say we get the new hat and keep our old hat! That way our hat coolness factor is doubled :V
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Kay, but which hat do we wear under the other?

Raiseth said:
Tzeentch, the big fucking nerd, didn't even arrive in person to sweet-talk us, he sent a minion. My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

0/10, just about the shittiest birb god there is.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Well technically daemons are just parts of a Chaos God given their own "separate" sentience.
 
Last edited:
Nerdasaurus Rex said:
"I can't draw a conclusion from this data point, therefore it's useless data" is something no researcher has ever said. If you can't draw a conclusion you get more data. And here's the thing, right—getting more data isn't Mathilde's job. It's not her responsibility. It's her job to pass on that data to someone else who does have that responsibility.

"A powerful and trusted wizard had a miscast, weakening reality in that location, and through that weak spot an entity self-identifying as a Lord of Change told them that an unknown number of Chaos Champions have begun competing for the title of the Thirteenth Everchosen" is a valuable data point to someone within the Empire's intelligence apparatus.

For a start, it tells them that a champion hasn't been chosen yet, and it allows them assign context to the actions of known chaos threats. Two cults tearing each other apart is no longer the "inherent self-destructive nature of Chaos" but two candidates attempting to subdue each other for the favour of their Gods. A raid between Kurgan tribes witnessed by a passing merchant might be about cattle or silver or slaves—or it might be a sign that a powerful leader is attempting unite warriors under their banner through a series of quick military victories, and when they reach a tipping point they are going to start raiding into Kislev.

And if the frequency of reports about the activities of champions, and portents about their behaviour, rises, then that suggests they are becoming bolder, and maybe more desperate, as they receive more blessings and the number of competitors goes down.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It doesn't tell us any of that though. An entity that claimed to be a greater daemon allegedly said something.

There is no evidence that this wasn't a miscast induced hallucination
There is no evidence that it was actually a greater daemon
There is no evidence that it was actually a greater daemon of Tzeentch
There is no evidence that it was telling the truth
There's no evidence that if it was telling the truth that it will stay the truth and the Chaos Gods won't change their minds
There's no evidence of what its true agenda was if it's telling the truth

We're introducing the risk of confirmation bias. We could send the Empire's intelligence agency chasing shadows, interpreting evidence through the lens of Everchosen selection. Think of the disinformation campaigns during WW2. The Allies giving out information saying that D-Day was going to be launched against the Pas de Calais rather than Normandy very much did not help the German intelligence agencies. It shaped their analysis in a way that was fundamentally misleading and enormously strategically damaging to them.

Passing on information supplied by the enemy and giving it our own credibility is asking to get screwed over. For all we know IC it's a carefully tailored lie that is designed, when combined with other data points the Empire has, to get them to misinterpret those data points and reach a false conclusion when without polluting the evidence pool they'd have reached a correct one. Even if the information about the Everchosen is true then unrelated plots may be over-interpreted as part of the Everchosen-bowl and their true significance and goal misunderstood to our detriment.

Data points aren't just additive. If you put bad data into an otherwise good sample you can destroy the validity of your results.

The question Mathilde should be asking is 'Why does this daemon want me to consider that this might be true?' 'What are it's possible motivations?'
 
Last edited:
Alratan said:
It is. And that's because we have no extra information that expands that binary. Without information about where or when the Everchosen might occur, or how progressed the competition to become the next one is, all we can say is that we're in the later situation.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Please, read Boney´s answers to your posts. He explicitly said that cross referencing what we just learned with all their other information sources could help the Empire. We can't personally expand on that binary, that's true. But it's also not our job, there's other people in the imperial state and information apparatus (including the GC) that can use the info.


Boney said:
The statement is useless in a vacuum, which is why I've been hammering on and on and on about how nobody would use it in a vacuum. If one Daemon says the Everchosen is coming, that's not something that can be used on its own. But if multiple different sources dedicated to different Chaos Gods indicate it, and infighting amongst Chaos Cults goes measurably up, and more and more rumours of great champions of Chaos start circulating, and the Winds from the poles start blowing harder, and the Gods start sending warnings to the faithful, then all of those data points that are useless in a vacuum can be combined into something that isn't. Unless all of them get hucked into a bin because they could possibly be Tzeentchian trickery.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
 
K von Carstein said:
Please, read Boney´s answers to your posts. He explicitly said that cross referencing what we just learned with all their other information sources could help the Empire. We can't personally expand on that binary, that's true. But it's also not our job, there's other people in the imperial state and information apparatus (including the GC) that can use the info.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It can be used. That doesn't explain why the daemon told us though? How does it advance this particularly greater daemon's agenda for the Empire to use this information in this way?

How does the daemon benefit from this, and is any benefit to the daemon from this worth the additional data point for the Empire? it having some informative value doesn't mean that it has major informative value worth whatever else comes along with it, just that it has non-zero informative value. The daemon presumably told Mathilde about this because it wants to share the information. Otherwise it wouldn't have told her. Why does it want the information shared, and why do we want to do what the daemon wants?

That's the question.

It's not the biggest question though. Telling about the Everchosen is much less of a problem than sacrificing Mathilde's credibility by telling her peers about the demon and implicitly asking them to no longer trust her.
 
Last edited:
[X] [BELEGAR] Greater Daemon
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon
 
Alratan said:
It can be used. That doesn't explain why the daemon told us though? How does it advance this particularly greater daemon's agenda for the Empire to use this information in this way?

How does the daemon benefit from this, and is any benefit to the daemon from this worth the additional data point for the Empire? it having some informative value doesn't mean that it has major informative value worth whatever else comes along with it, just that it has non-zero informative value. The daemon presumably told Mathilde about this because it wants to share the information. Otherwise it wouldn't have told her. Why does it want the information shared, and why do we want to do what the daemon wants?

That's the question.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
The daemon wants Mathilde to take up the mantle, so he tells her about the Superbowl to induce urgency "if you don't take up the mantle then the thirteenth will be coming soon and bring destruction to your corner of the world."
 
Alratan said:
It can be used. That doesn't explain why the daemon told us though? How does it advance this particularly greater daemon's agenda for the Empire to use this information in this way?

How does the daemon benefit from this, and is any benefit to the daemon from this worth the additional data point for the Empire? it having some informative value doesn't mean that it has major informative value worth whatever else comes along with it, just that it has non-zero informative value. The daemon presumably told Mathilde about this because it wants to share the information. Otherwise it wouldn't have told her. Why does it want the information shared, and why do we want to do what the daemon wants?

That's the question.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I'm honestly becoming infuriated by people trying to logic this, and despite my self-promise not to jump into the debate again;

IT'S FUCKING TZEENTCH

Doing things for seemingly no reason only to cause something to happen much further down the line is his THING.

And even if we find one good reason for why the LoC said what it did, there are probably tons of other reasons, including a few we could never guess or might never become relevant.
 
Tobtorp said:
The daemon wants Mathilde to take up the mantle, so he tells her about the Superbowl to induce urgency "if you don't take up the mantle then the thirteenth will be coming soon and bring destruction to your corner of the world."
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

"If you don't become Everchosen soon, some dhar guzzling barbarian inbred from the north will, and it would be your fault for allowing it to happen. Think of the many innocent people they will kill, and compare it to the number of guilty people you could kill with this power. Remember, this is a limited time offer, so don't wait—and whilst you are thinking it over, have a complementary power boost. On the house."
 
Alratan said:
It can be used. That doesn't explain why the daemon told us though? How does it advance this particularly greater daemon's agenda for the Empire to use this information in this way?

How does the daemon benefit from this, and is any benefit to the daemon from this worth the additional data point for the Empire? it having some informative value doesn't mean that it has major informative value worth whatever else comes along with it, just that it has non-zero informative value. The daemon presumably told Mathilde about this because it wants to share the information. Otherwise it wouldn't have told her. Why does it want the information shared, and why do we want to do what the daemon wants?

That's the question.

It's not the biggest question though. Telling about the Everchosen is much less of a problem than sacrificing Mathilde's credibility by telling her peers about the demon and implicitly asking them to no longer trust her.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You're not asking another question, just as important. How does not telling anyone advance the demon's plan? When dealing with über schemers like that chicken with delusions of grandeur, there's no right way to play. Telling or not telling is just as likely to be exactly what it wants. Knowing that, I prefer to choose the option that helps the rest of the Empire at least a little.
 
[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen, Daemon, and Mathilde's candidacy
 
Last edited:
Nerdasaurus Rex said:
"If you don't become Everchosen soon, some dhar guzzling barbarian inbred from the north will, and it would be your fault for allowing it to happen. Think of the many innocent people they will kill, and compare it to the number of guilty people you could kill with this power. Remember, this is a limited time offer, so don't wait—and whilst you are thinking it over, have a complementary power boost. On the house."
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Pretty much. it's a pretty obvious ploy, but it's so obvious because it works, and it works because it's most likely true. Mathilde will most likely (knowing the thread) not choose to become the Everchosen but the seed is now planted and it might grow if more things happen. (Also the ploy is just really cheap for the bird to do. Everyone knows the thirteenth is coming, just not when so it's not feather of his cap to reveal a bit more.)
 
No matter what happens, Tzeentch will claim it was all according to plan.
Personally i think the birb is lying fucker who can't be trusted when they do that.
So ignore it, and just do what makes sense to your personal goals and values.

Me, i am voting to tell about DAemon to both College and Belegar because if one of our allies was approachged by a daemon, i would prefer they tell us instead of wait for a second time that happens, or third, or fourth.
 
Tobtorp said:
The daemon wants Mathilde to take up the mantle, so he tells her about the Superbowl to induce urgency "if you don't take up the mantle then the thirteenth will be coming soon and bring destruction to your corner of the world."
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

He didn't tell her anything about where in the world the Everchosen would attack. Telling her about the competition seems unneccessary to recruit her. He could just have skipped straight to the temptation part about the benefits of ruling the world. How does knowing that there are a set of specific designated candidates in a competition make her more likely to chase down the Regalia of Chaos and so become the Everchosen?

Dragonofelder said:
I'm honestly becoming infuriated by people trying to logic this, and despite my self-promise not to jump into the debate again;

IT'S FUCKING TZEENTCH

Doing things for seemingly no reason only to cause something to happen much further down the line is his THING.

And even if we find one good reason for why the LoC said what it did, there are probably tons of other reasons, including a few we could never guess or might never become relevant.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It's not Tzeentch. It's one of Tzeentch's Greater Daemons. Tzeentch may plot against himself, but is Lords of Changes have their own specific agendas they work to advance. That can andnusually does include working against other Lords of Change, but not usually against themselves.

K von Carstein said:
You're not asking another question, just as important. How does not telling anyone advance the demon's plan? When dealing with über schemers like that chicken with delusions of grandeur, there's no right way to play. Telling or not telling is just as likely to be exactly what it wants. Knowing that, I prefer to choose the option that helps the rest of the Empire at least a little.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Not telling anyone doesn't advance the daemons plan because it chose to talk to us. If it hadn't spoken to us it would be impossible for us to tell people about it speaking to us. If Mathilde not telling anyone about this and not doing anything different advanced its plan, it would simply have not spoken to her.

Nerdasaurus Rex said:
"If you don't become Everchosen soon, some dhar guzzling barbarian inbred from the north will, and it would be your fault for allowing it to happen. Think of the many innocent people they will kill, and compare it to the number of guilty people you could kill with this power. Remember, this is a limited time offer, so don't wait—and whilst you are thinking it over, have a complementary power boost. On the house."
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

That doesn't even make sense in its own terms though. If Mathilde can just kill all the other potential candidates and so qualify to become Everchosen, she can just kill all the other potential candidates and then not become the Everchosen.
 
Last edited:
Alratan said:
He didn't tell her anything about where in the world the Everchosen would attack. Telling her about the competition seems unneccessary to recruit her. He could just have skipped straight to the temptation part about the benefits of ruling the world. How does knowing that there are a set of specific designated candidates in a competition make her more likely to chase down the Regalia of Chaos and so become the Everchosen?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Because a) it shows her that she already has a leg up in the competition and b) that their all chumps and she could be so much more powerful then them. It's giving the offer some weight because she already has "started" the process. This was not a super intricate plan to make Mathilde do something specific, this feels more like a greeting and invitation before more stuff happens, a courtesy call if you will. The birb probably could have done something more twisty but why bother when just talking makes her spin around in circles already.
 
You cannot just assume that Tzeentch is an infohazard who can easily be defeated by just not thinking about his information.

He's the Changer. He changes his plans and methods and strategies all the time. Thats why he always says everything was Just as planned, because the Plan keeps changing. So he'd totally give genuine, actionable information if he felt it would aid the plan, say by putting it in a context in which it seems incredibly suspicious so no one acts on it because they're certain it's a trap.

So if we have no idea whether this is a bluff to feed false information, or a double bluff trying to drive Mathilde to isolation, I'm going to risk the former.

Because as we have seen, the other Colleges are made up of generally competent individuals who wouldn't base their entire response around our information, but take it under advisement and see over time if it matches up any other datapoints. We're good, but we're not 'Trust me bro, just trust me' good.

Alratan said:
How does knowing that there are a set of specific designated candidates in a competition make her more likely to chase down the Regalia of Chaos and so become the Everchosen?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
"These are the kinds of people who want to be Everchosen. Think about what they'd do with that power. You've got a strong will on you: Maybe if you're the one to get it, you'll be the lesser evil. Maybe you'll even use it for good"

It makes further sense for Mathilde - whether Chaos knows it or not, Mathilde already HAS acquired powers associated with Extreme Evil for attempted good (Liber Mortis). In the right (or wrong) circumstance, it could be all too easy an argument that this would be an extension of that.
 
[X] [COLLEGE] Incoming Everchosen
[X] [BELEGAR] Nothing
[X] [BELEGAR] Greater Daemon


not sure why the vote is messed up but it is belgar nothing is in both task for some reason
 
Last edited:
I'd rather act, and have our actions lead to ruin, than not act and have that ruin come upon us anyway.

Worst case scenario if we act: Our single data point pollutes the information the Empire has gathered, and we end up preparing for a Chaos invasion that never happens, or kicks off in Cathay or something, and the Grey College's trust and faith in us is shaken.

Worst case scenario if we don't act: A Chaos invasion catches the Empire off guard, and they are unable to react to it in a timely manner, despite the fact that we knew all along that this was going to happen.
 
Woltaire said:
not sure why the vote is messed up but it is belgar nothing is in both task for some reason
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You don't need to worry about this. It's a known bug with the tally when two tasks have the same text (in this case "Nothing"). The count is correct for each, it's just a display bug that shows the other tasks as whichever task with that text showed up first. We encounter it mostly during purchase rounds.
 
Tobtorp said:
Because a) it shows her that she already has a leg up in the competition and b) that their all chumps and she could be so much more powerful then them. It's giving the offer some weight because she already has "started" the process. This was not a super intricate plan to make Mathilde do something specific, this feels more like a greeting and invitation before more stuff happens, a courtesy call if you will. The birb probably could have done something more twisty but why bother when just talking makes her spin around in circles already.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It doesn't show she has a leg up on the competition, because it gave no evidence of how many competitors there are.

The3rdCorinthian said:
You cannot just assume that Tzeentch is an infohazard who can easily be defeated by just not thinking about his information.

He's the Changer. He changes his plans and methods and strategies all the time. Thats why he always says everything was Just as planned, because the Plan keeps changing. So he'd totally give genuine, actionable information if he felt it would aid the plan, say by putting it in a context in which it seems incredibly suspicious so no one acts on it because they're certain it's a trap.

So if we have no idea whether this is a bluff to feed false information, or a double bluff trying to drive Mathilde to isolation, I'm going to risk the former.

Because as we have seen, the other Colleges are made up of generally competent individuals who wouldn't base their entire response around our information, but take it under advisement and see over time if it matches up any other datapoints. We're good, but we're not 'Trust me bro, just trust me' good.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Whose talking about driving Mathilde into isolation? If anything, telling her peers that Mathilde is potentially compromised by a Greater Daemon of Tzeentch is more likely to isolate her, as she's literally telling them that she can't be trusted.

If you want to avoid Mathilde being isolated, vote to not tell anyone anything and then have Mathilde go on and live her life as if this never happened. Mathilde is well practiced at keeping important secrets from her peers and friends, and it hasn't done her any discernable harm whatsoever.

Nerdasaurus Rex said:
I'd rather act, and have our actions lead to ruin, than not act and have that ruin come upon us anyway.

Worst case scenario if we act: Our single data point pollutes the information the Empire has gathered, and we end up preparing for a Chaos invasion that never happens, or kicks off in Cathay or something, and the Grey College's trust and faith in us is shaken.

Worst case scenario if we don't act: A Chaos invasion catches the Empire off guard, and they are unable to react to it in a timely manner, despite the fact that we knew all along that this was going to happen.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Worst case scenario is that we damage the dwarves and Colleges' trust in Mathilde severly enough that it damages the Waystone project and don't trust her AV results or its outputs.
 
Last edited:
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Voting is open
Remove ads
Back
Top