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[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening

[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen, Daemon, and Mathilde's candidacy
 
Example: There currently is a suborned Celestial or Light Journeyman or Magister. They lie about what they found out when getting a glimpse of the future or raiding a Tzeentch Cult or whatever.

They could do that if the daemon had never showed up. They could make an infinite range of allegedly compromising things up. It makes no difference whether it actually happened or not.

Being based on an actual event makes no difference.
 
I am not advocating we tell. I just felt like your question deserves an answer. That said, if the Cultist adds information about how Mathilde's room looks from the inside, that would throw even more suspicion.
 
The Empire has hundreds, if not thousands of seers, oracles, soothsayers, and prophets. Morr is the god of prophetic dreams, and has an entire order of vampire slayers who receive direct instructions from him. The Celestial college went all in with scrying the future because it's significantly more powerful than flinging lighting at people. The Gods regularly send portents and omens to their priests. The Empire is not blind or deaf to the movements of Chaos, and the data point we just received can be added to that information. If it's false and the demon was lying to us, that will be detected. And if it's true, then that will strengthen and verify the more legitimate sources of information.

And of course all those seers are the reason why the Empire has never been caught with its pants down when the everchosen showed up... right?

I do not think adding one more demon's whispering to the pot can have any meaningful impact especially as chaos controls when the even takes place. If Chaos thinks we look too prepared they can just... wait. Send the champion the long way to get his horse.
 
Ah, found the main point of my confusion. I thought not being able to keep your marked wind out of your soul-manipulations was the foundation of Imperial magic? Where does the contact happen that results in dhar?
Dhar occurs when different Winds are forced too close together, so as long as you only use the Wind your soul is turning into, you won't get Dhar.
 
The Empire has hundreds, if not thousands of seers, oracles, soothsayers, and prophets. Morr is the god of prophetic dreams, and has an entire order of vampire slayers who receive direct instructions from him. The Celestial college went all in with scrying the future because it's significantly more powerful than flinging lighting at people. The Gods regularly send portents and omens to their priests. The Empire is not blind or deaf to the movements of Chaos, and the data point we just received can be added to that information. If it's false and the demon was lying to us, that will be detected. And if it's true, then that will strengthen and verify the more legitimate sources of information.

All that's true, but the daemons words do nothing to either corroborate or contradict those other sources. The words of a daemon are literally meaningless here. Those other sources of information are either convincing, or they're not, the daemon's words don't change anything.

I am not advocating we tell. I just felt like your question deserves an answer. That said, if the Cultist adds information about how Mathilde's room looks from the inside, that would throw even more suspicion.

Mathilde's room is sealed against external magic. They can't have observed it like that. And if a Chaos God is feeding them visions, they could have included accurate details on what Mathilde's room looked like from the inside anyway whether or not the other events shown were true or not.

There is no difference between what a false visions or a true vision of these events would look like to anyone save Mathilde. A chaotic attempt to frame her for something that never happened would be indistinguishable from a chaotic attempt to reveal what really happened, and everyone would know that.

Without Mathilde revealing this it's pretty much literally impossible for it to be revealed
 
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And yes, telling the truth is a statement. It's probably a statement that Mathilde believes she can no longer be trusted and that forever more her peers need to consider the fact that she thought it necessary to warn them about her whenever they interact with her or she does something.
Well, there is a greater demon of Tzeentch looking directly over us. That's kind of difficult to manage alone. There is a doubt that we can do it alone.

It's not a data point at all. Fundamentally, it's just noise.
That's just false. The update specifically confirmed that it's a data point.
You're certainly not going to be able to command any sort of mobilization effort based on 'a Lord of Change told me', but you can add the information in more general form to the greater intelligence apparatus, which will be accumulating bits and pieces like that and will, eventually, reach the point where the omens are unmistakeable and the Empire - hopefully - will get its ducks in a row before half of Kislev is aflame. And if it turns out to be nothing - there's nothing to say that an Everchosen will always attack the Old World, and several theorists in the field believe that Naggaroth and Cathay have received the brunt of at least a couple - then those armies can go and proactively stamp out a few nascent lesser threats.

How?

How does the enemy reveal it? Explain the sequence of events that does so in a way that wouldn't be equally possible of the daemon had never showed up?
Here's someone with far more imagination than me who devised a plausible scenario.

And even without that, given Tzeentch's proclivity for convoluted plans, thinking that there's zero chance that not telling people will have no consequences is very careless.

A demon ain't gonna walk into the Imperial Palace with a PowerPoint about how Mathilde Is Evil, actually. Kairos Fateweaver will not infiltrate the grey college to leave a flipbook comic containing this update on Algard's sink. Tzeentch himself will not jump out of the bushes shouting "Mathilde's a baby Everchosen!" during date night to manipulate Pan into killing her.

Nah, the spymaster of Elector Count Whothefuckcares, an actual Tzeentch cultist, will fabricate evidence that Mathilde is the leader of an Undivided cult he just broke up last month, and then Witch Hunter Whatevs follows a rumor planted by a different Tzeenth cult two provinces over to find evidence an expert shadowmancer killed Lector Somedude (Who was actually murdered by a Lahmian conspiracy Tzeentch abeted), and then Former Journeywoman Thisbitch who suffered a nasty miscast during her journeying and was possessed by a Tzeentchian demon for a hot sec will swear under torture that Mathilde gave her pointers that experienced Magisters will recognize would've led to that miscast, not knowing said demon put its full foot onto fabricating those memories in the first place. And Journeyman Poordude who's a Von Carstein pawn by the same way we were a Lahmian pawn will corroborate her story on his handler's order because vanpires will as a rule take any opportunity to fuck us over. And only when all this comes together will Magister Headintheclouds (whose dreams are a turf war between Mor and Tzeentch that Mor's been winning but Tzeentch has been able to still squeeze in a few wins) will think to interpret that crazy intense dream she had last year about a shadowy figure opening a hole in reality and being spoken to by a hidden thing, before becoming a shadow wolf hunting among the colleges and then eating the sun to maybe mean that this one Grey LM is evil. And yeah Matty's a Lady Magister but Magister Headintheclouds is a Magister in good standing in the celestial order who's prophetic dreams have helped bust up five different chaos cults in the past decade so like, Algards gotta do some kinda investigation. So he and Starke take a trip to K8P while Matty's out and take a look around and it all seems swell and- hey. Is this a scarred hole in reality sitting in the middle of her lab. Hmm. Hold up. This lab matches Magister Headintheclouds description of her vision exactly. Well, now we gotta do a deeper check ohfuckisthatthelibermortis!?!? Burn, burn burn burn it all to the ground!
 
Several Ulgu battle magic spells use it. And Ulgu is the Wind of borders and limits and the blurring thereof. And several of the other Grey LMs seem to believe it is related. And many natural liminal realms in forests are associated with shadows.
I assumed the Grey College developed those spells because they lvie in a liminal realm, and so could study it to develop magic from it.

The Grey LMs had a bunch of explanations, most of which didn't mention Ulgu. A couple linked it to various gods, a couple to magical traditions or tricks, and only Algard and the Bursar specifically said it was Ulgu based.

No? The liminal realm in Laurelorn is the Dreaming Wood, and I don't recall a link to shadows or Ulgu. The one in the Forest of Shadows was IIRC, but I'm not sure that's becuase it's a liminal realm or because it's the Forest of Shadows already.
 
[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen, Daemon, and Mathilde's candidacy
I want to have as few secrets that could come back to bite us as possible
 
And of course all those seers are the reason why the Empire has never been caught with its pants down when the everchosen showed up... right?

I do not think adding one more demon's whispering to the pot can have any meaningful impact especially as chaos controls when the even takes place. If Chaos thinks we look too prepared they can just... wait. Send the champion the long way to get his horse.

The last time an Everchosen turned up, the Empire was in a three way civil war, and they all collectively pulled their trousers up and belted them tight because they did listen to the omens and portents sent by the gods.
 
What's your general opinion on Regimand not sharing that he either had the previous Empress assassinated or assassinated her himself?

well, that touches on other parts of the empire's hierarchy that aren't so trustable, i think. like, say, any uppity nobles or sigmarites who sense an opportunity to dunk on the colleges in general, saying 'hey, these fuckin' witches are making a power grab, plain and simple! the vampire thing's just an excuse, clearly!'

but i'd like to think at least algard knows the truth about the previous empress, and the lahmian conspiracy. it's rather a big thing, you know, lahmians in the highest echelons of power and able to ensnare members of the grey college. i feel like this is something the college's higher ups would be alerted to.

maybe i'm wrong on this, though. it's been a long time since i've read the earlier parts of the quest. still, i feel like this issue's something we can trust the college, or at least algard on.
 
Well, there is a greater demon of Tzeentch looking directly over us. That's kind of difficult to manage alone. There is a doubt that we can do it alone.

So? Th fact that a Greater Daemon of Tzeentch is watching Mathilde isn't something that anyone else can help her with. There's literally nothing they can do beyond trust her or what she produces less. They can't help her manage it.

And Mathilde is fully capable of doing this alone. It's just part of the job of being a Lord Magister.
Here's someone with far more imagination than me who devised a plausible scenario.

And even without that, given Tzeentch's proclivity for convoluted plans, thinking that there's zero chance that not telling people will have no consequences is very careless.

It's something that could have happened without the daemon ever having communicated with Mathilde, and would take precisely the same expenditure of effort on behalf of Tzeentch. It no more reveals that this happens than it would reveal something equally incriminating that never actually did happen. There's nothing about this event actually happening that makes it more plausible or the plot likely to work.

And if that kind of plot is a potential issue, telling people that Mathilde fears she is potentially comprised is actively counter-productive, as that makes those people more likely to believe it if Tzeentch does pull off this kind of plot in a few yeas and make up something incriminating.

In its own terms, if this is a worry we should keep quiet rather than undermine people's trust in Mathilde.
 
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…You know this just made me realize that the Bird made a comment about how he really likes our hat while offering us a new hat. And I gotta say, it's a pretty swanky hat.
Ah. Hm. Maybe Mathilde should check to see if her/Abelhelm's hat been secretly turned into the Crown of Domination. Just in case.

(What better test for the next Everchosen than to see if they can steal Mathilde's hat?)
 
It's not incapable of telling the truth. If it was you could use that to get useful knowledge, as we'd know what it said was not true.

I'm convinced that its words have no reliability. They could be either true or false, and the fact that the daemon spoke them doesn't change the prior probability of that at all. We've gained no information by hearing it.

The statement is useless in a vacuum, which is why I've been hammering on and on and on about how nobody would use it in a vacuum. If one Daemon says the Everchosen is coming, that's not something that can be used on its own. But if multiple different sources dedicated to different Chaos Gods indicate it, and infighting amongst Chaos Cults goes measurably up, and more and more rumours of great champions of Chaos start circulating, and the Winds from the poles start blowing harder, and the Gods start sending warnings to the faithful, then all of those data points that are useless in a vacuum can be combined into something that isn't. Unless all of them get hucked into a bin because they could possibly be Tzeentchian trickery.

Yet I thought that a Patriarch without tattoos that walks into the archives alone might have a better go at it. For example I have no idea whatsoever how one would notice if Algard reads the wrong kind of classified material for the wrong reasons, let alone stop him.

My understanding was always that it is massively unlikely for a Magister Patriarch or Matriarch to become a wholesale Chaos cultist, but that, if it ever were to happen, it would be a massive and near inevitable blow to the Empire and the Colleges. Maybe I am underestimating the internal safeguards that the Colleges have even on that level.

Or to put it differently, I know what kind of horrible harm Mathilde could do. I assume that a LM with an actual official position in its College could do more. And that the head of the College could do even more than that, even if it is an unpopular head on the way out.

And just to not confuse matters or risk talking past each other, my point here is only that I believe mentioning suspicious connections between Alric and Chaos would have a non-zero effect on reducing the harm he could do if he actually was Chaos aligned. And that I believe a Chaos aligned Alric would most likely be worse than a random Chaos aligned Magister, despite Alric being currently watched closely for other reasons while the hypothetical Magister might be galavanting around below anyone's notice.

If Alric still had authority and reputation and allies and resources left, that might be true. But he doesn't. What he has is Mira looking extremely closely for any opportunity to tie up that loose end. The measures to prevent him from being a risk to the Empire if he betrays it are already in place.

Ah, found the main point of my confusion. I thought not being able to keep your marked wind out of your soul-manipulations was the foundation of Imperial magic? Where does the contact happen that results in dhar?

Winds that touch your soul go into your soul. Vitae that touches your soul does not go into your soul.
 
Just to clarify, you're doubtful that the agents of the Schemer would have a way of revealing information in a way that would be damaging for Mathilde?

He's doubtful that this singular instance meaningfully changes anything. The cultists could fabricate whatever evidence they want, if they are so capable it doesn't need to be of a real event and it being one doesn't meaningfully make that task easier for them.

Ergo it changed nothing.

Now I'm perfectly fine with informing the colleges that an everchosen is coming, but that's sort of a bit 'Winter is coming' because it always is. I don't think it's harmful to do so.
 
Just to clarify, you're doubtful that the agents of the Schemer would have a way of revealing information in a way that would be damaging for Mathilde?
I can't speak for Alratan, but I don't see any measurable difference between "Tell complete fabrication that damages Mathilde's reputation" and "Tell truth known only to Mathilde and some daemon that damages Mathilde's reputation". In both cases there is no proof that the information is true (unless, you know, the daemon recorded our conversation on his smartphone), so if they can get us in scenario 2 they can just as easily get us in scenario 1 and the fact that our conversation happened doesn't matter unless we blab about it.
 
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Yes yes not on our soul, I know I know. Perhaps I shouldn't have used that as a short-hand. Whatever.

We're not marked, we're... probably whitelisted as one person put it. But we can study that; we can study the effects on a person from having their name on a list somewhere.

The effects are "better casting when Tzeentchian magic's around (and possibly worse backfires if they happen? or something?)". Which... may not be studiable without going looking for Tzeentchian minor daemons to beat up, but... Well, you also could have Mathilde using magic around certain areas or peoples, and then seeing if Mathilde's magic gets stronger; if it does get stronger, that'd give you, I dunno, some actionable intelligence.

But there's other stuff they can do. I don't know because I don't know the full resources of the Colleges or the full mechanics of how everything works. For instance, Celestial magic is kind of a great big question because I think it was said "Well a lot of their spell effects are 'reroll a die' and how does that manifest in the world?" when Boney was complaining about that in an offhand post. "What's the fluff for the Portent of Amul spells? Nobody knows, it just says it affects rolls, and not much otherwise! Hooray!"

So, okay, let's say that the answer is that our name is on a whitelist somewhere. How does it identify us? Via "Aethyric Signature"? If so, how? Did the Daemons get a good look at our soul? Or at our magics? If it identifies us based on """Aethyric Signature""" or Magic Pixie Dust, can we come up with a spell to hide or distort the identification of our soul by this thing? Or can we use ourselves as a sympathetic link to figure out where tf the whitelist is? Or where similarly whitelisted people are?

The word "Fated" to me has certain implications. Of, well, causality or fate or Celestial magics. Azyr. If it's something like that, then maybe Azyr magic would be useful in understanding it. Or alternatively, maybe the Celestial College would get useful ideas or stuff from studying it.

Or maybe it's just "Fated" as a descriptor for "You're on Tzeentch's mind" and the word is only used because Tzeentch is associated with magic and fate, and it isn't intrinsically related to fate or Azyr per se. Weird but whatever. Still, we can try to do something with it, no?
 
As Mathymancer said, even if telling the College about our contact has small consequences overall, one of the consequences would be to throw massive suspicion upon any research we subsequently do related to Kurgan, Norscan or Skaven religion. It would also be an issue with smug out of nowhere revelations of scientific breakthroughs and other cool stuff. So, out of purely selfish reasons, I vote to not disclose.
I'm tentatively inclined to agree, but my one concern would be what if the colleges end up finding out through the grapevine, via the Dwarves anyway? I don't think that's going to happen, but it would probably be a somewhat awkward conversation explaining why we felt it necessary to inform the Dwarves and not our boss.
 
Regarding the college at least, telling them about the interest Tzeentch has and the encounter with the greater demon won't be particularly surprising, I think. It'll be confirmatory, and that's useful information to have, to be on the lookout for confirmed Tzeentchian interference in, for example, the Waystone Project.

"This is... very detailed. Just a moment." He opens a drawer, rummages through the clutter inside, and then underhand lobs something to you. "Think fast."

You catch it, and frown as the crystal orb glows with a shocking amount of Hysh, a tendril of pure light extruding to wave lazily through the air. "What in the-" you grimace as the Ulgu inside you rebels at so much Light magic in close proximity, and there's a crashing flutter as one of Algard's paperwork dimensions collapses. "Seriously? Did you seriously just daemon-check me?"

"If any of your underlings drop three different flavours of extremely convenient and extremely unlikely insight on you in a row, I'd be very disappointed if you didn't do the same." The orb subsides, the energy tendril retracting back into its depths. "What are your sources with this one? Sudden flashes of inspiration in your dreams? Whispers on the wind? A conveniently insightful underling that appeared out of nowhere?"

You begin to rebut, but then you frown. He's kind of got a point, considering the order you're delivering these in. Maybe you shouldn't have saved the best for last. "My sources," you say, standing and dropping your freshly-printed tome on his desk with a dramatic thump, "are primary."

He [Algard] snorts a laugh. "How could I forget. Very well, consider me mollified, for now. But find the time in the coming year to go through anti-Chaos training. That's an order. I'd be surprised if you hadn't already drawn the attention of at least the Changer." He turns his attention back to the book. "This is astounding work, Magister. And it's about to make the War Below a lot more interesting. Most will never learn of this, and even fewer will know that it was done by you, but those that matter will."

As you make your way out of the College, you find yourself unable to stop from smiling. Your papers were so good he thought you were cheating, which is quite a compliment. Though to be fair, for some of it you were, it's just that your source was necromantic rather than daemonic.

This is from before we ripped Vlag out of the grasp of Chaos. It is entirely unsurprising that they might be taking a more direct interest in Mathilde's activities, from the perspective of the Grey College.


[X] [BELEGAR] Greater Daemon
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon
 
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The statement is useless in a vacuum, which is why I've been hammering on and on and on about how nobody's would use it in a vacuum. If one Daemon says the Everchosen is coming, that's not something that can be used on its own. But if multiple different sources dedicated to different Chaos Gods indicate it, and infighting amongst Chaos Cults goes measurably up, and more and more rumours of great champions of Chaos start circulating, and the Winds from the poles start blowing harder, and the Gods start sending warnings to the faithful, then all of those data points that are useless in a vacuum can be combined into something that isn't. Unless all of them get hucked into a bin because they could possibly be Tzeentchian trickery.

Those other things are useful data point that would make a case that the Everchosen is incoming.

However I'm not convinced that the word of a greater daemon of Tzeentch gives extra credibility to that. I see it like asking a magic eight ball whether it will rain tomorrow. Whatever the result, it shouldn't make me more or less likely to believe the weather forecast that it will be fine.

Now, you're the QM, so your word goes, but including biased or very unreliable information sources in an analysis because you think more data points are better tends to degrade a sample, not improve it.

Just to clarify, you're doubtful that the agents of the Schemer would have a way of revealing information in a way that would be damaging for Mathilde?

I believe that it's almost impossible to reveal in a way that would be distinguishable from the agents of the Schemer having simply invented the entire episode. And if they could do that they could simply invent 'evidence' that Mathilde had done something else dubious.

Worse, revealing this and implicitly warning the College that Mathilde may be compromised might actually make such a plot to invent proof of Mathilde being corrupt more likely to succeed, as Mathilde herself would have warned her peers to be suspicious of her in future.
 
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