If they're still using similar tactics, snipers on the Inquisitors pointing rifles and pistols at their own men will break down their discipline and ensure chaos in their ranks, and cause massive amounts of surrenders or retreats from their grunts.
Keep in mind that Victoria is extremely unlikely to use the Victorian militia extensively in future conflicts. The primary force used in the Battle of Detroit were trained, professional soldiers rather than the Victorian militia force. This militia force wasn't even formally part of their armed forces prior to the peace treaty, as shown in the Militia Clause.
Victoria will formally acknowledge that their militias, when mustered, are formally incorporated as part of their armed forces, and that Victoria itself bears responsibility for these militias' behavior and conduct on the battlefield. This will either force Victoria to undergo massive efforts to reform their militia system to Geneva compliance, or else accept a catastrophic burden of responsibility in the event of any muster of the militia.
The reason the militia was utilized in the civil war was that there simply weren't enough actual soldiers for the civil war, this has always been a desperate measure leading to a worsening food shortage. Given their presumably quite poor performance when compared to the Victorian regular troops, high command is unlikely to use them for something militarily important, since they are acutely aware of the Milita shortcomings.
Reading Blackwell's military analysis, he strongly emphasizes the need for reforming the doctrine to work against the "Machine State", along the lines of German Maneuver Warfare. As I understand it, this means using heavy armor, mechanizing & motorizing infantry and training troops together with their supporting arms (organic units). Militia don't really fit in this schema, especially militia from a rural, pre-industrial society with no experience operating machinery. I'm unsure to what extent Victoria might utilize partisan tactics, for which their militia are better suited. On the one hand, 4th generational warfare places a premium of operating like insurgencies and guerrillas, on the other hand, Blackwell thinks the morale impact doesn't apply while fighting us, therefore we are immune to 4th gen warfare. To be clear, partisans can still have a strong impact on logistics and bind troops to rearguard duties, but it's unclear to what extent the next form of Victorian doctrine recognizes this and how politically viable it is to use some partisan tactics rather than purge any commanders that suggests something of the old doctrine.
Before that, making good relations with the locals via the tried and true method of giving them food and showing them that we're not the devil, as well as giving them access to a better life in the Commonwealth. Letters, video recordings, cell phone calls, etc from living family members in Chicago detailing how much their life has improved will gut punch Victorian morale, which consists of people who have already missed a few harvests while we're increasing our quality of life each year.
That all said, if Russia invests heavily into Victorian infrastructure, that's all moot. It really depends on what Victoria looks like in a decade as we both race to build up our economies and militaries. Fortunately for us, their civil war and the peace treaty is giving us a hell of a head start.
The Victorian population around Buffalo seems to perceive us as more benevolent than Victoria. Significant numbers of Victorian refugees have been coming into our state, ever since we had the free migration clause. If you considered the other regime to be as bad as Victoria says, I don't think you would attempt to flee there. While the civil war is a factor here, I don't think we will see the refugee stream dry up once it ends. So, with many people of Victoria already living inside our borders, we can very easily disproof claims about how monstrous we are by simply publicly showing our efforts to support and integrate Victorian refugees into our society.
Russia will invest and the resulting development is very hard to foresee, since neither actor has a particularly stable government currently. Still, I think a population crisis for Victoria is quite likely.
