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Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

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Ok, so some people *cough* @DeAnno *cough* have argued that we should really have some War in the skill plan. This ofc requires dropping other things. Suggestion here is to drop Wits by 1, and drop athletics by 1 in order to give us 3 points to dump into War (which is what we want to have good odds of levelling it to D). Would drop our odds of B Wits (ignoring event gains) to ~70%. Athletics softcap drops from 90% to 29%, though we do often get event xp there, and arguably we don't particularly want to overcap.

Proposed changed skill plan:
[] Plan Dancing Moon v2
-[] 4x Dexterity* (8/40), 2x Presence** (12/40), 3x Manipulation** (18/40), 2x Composure** (22/40), 4x Resolve* (30/40), 2x Wits* (34/40)
-[] 2x Athletics** (36/40), 1x Survival (37/40), 3x War* (40/40)

[] Plan Dancing Moon
-[] 4x Dexterity* (8/40), 2x Presence** (12/40), 3x Manipulation** (18/40), 2x Composure** (22/40), 4x Resolve* (30/40), 3x Wits* (36/40)
-[] 3x Athletics** (39/40), 1x Survival (30/40)
How do people feel about this idea? I'm fine with making this change - War is a narratively appropriate thing to train right now - but there are enough people voting for my plan now that I figure it should probably be run by people first.
 
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Erebeal said:
Would drop our odds of B Wits (ignoring event gains) to ~70%. Athletics softcap drops from 90% to 29%, though we do often get event xp there, and arguably we don't particularly want to overcap.
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Event gains are pretty likely to the tune of maxing these though. Wits has in the past 7 months gained 0, 3, 0, 6, 2, 0, 3 from events. If we take that set as an approximate probability distribution, then the true chance of leveling Wits is (3*26/36 + 1*33/36 + 2*35/36 + 1)/7 = 86.1%

Similarly, for Athletics, its 0, 5, 3, 3, 1, 0, 6. That implies a true probability of (2*10/36 + 1*15/36 + 2*26/36 + 1*33/36 + 1*35/36)/7 = 61.5%. Athletics also has the issue of being lossy if it gets pushed past C, though we do want to get it to cap.

As for why we want War, why wouldn't we want War? We're in the middle of an actual War so it seems pretty good to push it up high. Our War is all the way down at E 5/15 now so there is a lot of space to go, 30 points before we even get to C. We don't want to neglect it again and again, especially when every month in the War events will presumably involve the War skill. Lots of times in past battles Ling Qi has gotten some awkward strategic choices, and there is a strong argument that low War has contributed to that (this was referenced pretty directly in how the tourney played out in the first round with Shen Hu.)
 
AbeoLogos said:
I don't really mind either way, but I do think people generally have invalid expectations when it comes to War's impact on our choices during events.
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That I do agree with, yeah. Like, ultimately, a lot of these things really come down to them being about our decisions as players. And yrs can't just have high War give us the "right" answer, because that's bad gameplay and vote design.

Also note we didn't get any War from last turn. So it's clearly not relevant :V
 
Erebeal said:
That I do agree with, yeah. Like, ultimately, a lot of these things really come down to them being about our decisions as players. And yrs can't just have high War give us the "right" answer, because that's bad gameplay and vote design.

Also note we didn't get any War from last turn. So it's clearly not relevant :V
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Xiulan, Zhengui, and Shen Hu stole it all :(
 
It's somewhat close, especially as there are still people voting only for the first PLR version.

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Adhoc vote count started by naths on Jan 8, 2020 at 8:07 AM, finished with 102 posts and 52 votes.
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