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[ X] Make it known to the world that you possess the Declaration of Independence, and invite the Free City of New York to Chicago to examine and confirm the authenticity of the document, as well as discussion possible restoration efforts. +8 Legitimacy, massive opinion boost with FCNY, large opinion boost with most polities within the former borders of the United States, negative attention from Japan, Russia, and Russian client states.


Again. The Rubicon and threshold now is direct militant action like airstrikes

While I didn't mention this in last turn vote,I repeat, we crossed the Alexander will fuck with us using agents, politics, diplomacy and etc last turn when we voted to integrate Detroit, Toledo, sit down a Russian puppet and dominator of the NA continent to humiliating peace talks , organising local powers into an industrial conference with all that signifies, declared ourselves Defender of the Midwest AND told the whole fucking world we exists and give us recognition please.

I have no doubt this action will put us up Alexander shit list and invite more trouble. But I looking at synergy now and we already in deep shit, the bonuses to 3 AP we invest last turn vis conference, integration AND outreach.


And finally. I going to remind everyone that Poptart already made it clear that Revelation is post peace talks. The arguments for peace talks was trying to squeeze victoria dry for international access or Mississippi and etc.

Are we now going to walk that back because that will piss Alexander off ?
 
With all the doom-saying about a Russian intervention, are we even still just delaying its release until California revolts? I don't see how waiting a year will change any of this.
 
With all the doom-saying about a Russian intervention, are we even still just delaying its release until California revolts? I don't see how waiting a year will change any of this.
Waiting a year means Russia (and Japan) will have big fires to put out and will be forced to split it's attention. We can force Russia to dilute it's efforts.

Plus in a year we'll be in a far better position (immediate fires being put out, like the looming food crisis and the refugee situation as well as hostile neighborhood) to reveal and weather the hostile attention.
 
Actually if I wanted to look for a specific historical document hundreds of years old and in bad condition, I would just track where the compressed nitrogen gas is being shipped to, compare that to a list of libraries. Then you do the footwork and go to each library and see which ones have areas that are off limits or restricted. Then you pass the list off to James Bond who hasn't been to any of these libraries yet and let him do the dirty deed.

I mean, how many important ancient documents do we have that need to be kept in a climate controlled atmosphere of nitrogen lying around? Of those, which ones would we actively guard and hide from the public?

You could do the same with any other agents specific to document conservation. Russia has done document conservation before on their own. They have ready access to experts and resources. They know what goes into document conservation, and we dont have a lot of resources. So if we need tanks of compressed nitrogen to keep a positive pressure inside a vessel to keep a document from deteriorating further, it wont be that hard to track. Its an ancient document that requires certain experts to test and maintain and repair, and it requires certain specific resources.

If you really want to go all in, draw up a list of places that receive compressed nitrogen, draw up a list of places that archivists and librarians who specialize in document conservation work at, and draw up a list of libraries. Then you just see who gets all three, and chances are you are getting really close to the declaration.

If it gets exploded before we reveal it, its our word versus Russias. If it gets exploded after we reveal it, how many native states are going to willingly destroy the Declaration? Even Victoria might not go that far.
Bear in mind that the Commonwealth does have a concept of military secrecy and internal security. It's entirely probable that there are shipments of bottled nitrogen being produced (it's not hard to compress) and shipped to undisclosed locations. Or to several such locations. And the Declaration can be moved, perhaps to a site in our large rural hinterland where random spies would not normally have occasion to go, and to which some of our archivists have "disappeared" without telling anyone where they went.

I mean, I'm not saying this kind of security is unbreakable. But it's just... not hard... to level things up to the point where it is genuinely challenging to find such a small and inert object that a national government doesn't want found. It would take time, and resources. And there's a risk of accidentally exposing your existing spy networks when they go digging for information like "hey, so who's been shipping around bottled nitrogen lately" after the local equivalent of the FBI has already established that asking that question without a damn good reason puts you on their watch list.

If the Russians actually have good intelligence penetration of our territory (not a given), it's entirely possible that Alexander IV would prefer to let the Declaration be, rather than seeking it out and destroying it in a way that would make it obvious to us that Russian spies had done the dirty deed and that we needed to start hunting down and rolling up his networks.

But, you know who will care? Victoria. Remember, despite how proud Victoria is for killing the old US of A, the CMC's original vision statement was a return things to a "better" time. A time before Cultural Marxists destroyed the Founding Father's utopian vision. I have absolutely no doubt that both sides in their civil war would do a lot of awful things to take the DoI for themselves or at least destroy it so it cannot be used by anyone else.
Yeah, but we can deal with the Victorians. Their spies are unlikely to get past us very well, their resources are limited, they don't directly have access to things like highly secure and compact communications devices, and if they try a more brute force approach we can cut them to ribbons (again).

I'm not worried about the Victorians going berserk. I'm definitely worried about the Russians going berserk.

Waiting a year means Russia (and Japan) will have big fires to put out and will be forced to split it's attention. We can force Russia to dilute it's efforts.

Plus in a year we'll be in a far better position (immediate fires being put out, like the looming food crisis and the refugee situation as well as hostile neighborhood) to reveal and weather the hostile attention.
Or to reveal and use the resulting diplomatic leverage to expand rapidly and become large enough that Russia can't destroy us simply by deploying one force to one place.

Right now, a succession of airstrikes hitting around Chicago and maybe Detroit, flown out of Victorian territory by long range stealth aircraft, could pretty easily cripple the Commonwealth's ability to make war or grow economically. If we integrated a very large number of friendly revivalist states scattered over an area of the Midwest 2-3 times larger, the sheer number of significant targets and the physical extent of the territory would make it harder for Russia to squash us without doing things they have historically avoided doing (like actually deploying Russian ground troops in large numbers on North American soil).

Not impossible, but again, harder. The forces Alexander can deploy to America, and their size, are limited, he'll be dealing with multiple rebellions at once, and he has kind of a shortage of good bases to operate from. Victoria will host his troops but is fighting a civil war that complicates their ability to do so- local supplies of food and so on will be harder to guarantee. And thanks to Alexander's own policies (as implemented by Victoria) there are VERY few places in North America out of which a large military force can base in a secure, well-supplied environment- and the main ones are New York and California, neither of which is likely to be open to him.
 
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Right now, a succession of airstrikes hitting around Chicago and maybe Detroit, flown out of Victorian territory by long range stealth aircraft, could pretty easily cripple the Commonwealth's ability to make war or grow economically. If we integrated a very large number of friendly revivalist states scattered over an area of the Midwest 2-3 times larger, the sheer number of significant targets and the physical extent of the territory would make it harder for Russia to squash us without doing things they have historically avoided doing (like actually deploying Russian ground troops in large numbers on North American soil).
.... You way too optimistic. With the kind of hologram tech we seen, airborne lasers are a thing. Even with current PGMs, a squadron of B1 can work over 50 targets, considerably more once you consider unlike Serbia, we don't have the machine tools or trade networks to rebuild. Or any effective air defence network against current airforces.

Note, we talking very conservative numbers using the Serbian campaign as a guide since that's the last major strategic bombing offensive.

Our situation more likely falls under full airpower in the 21st century mode than the highly conservative Serbian or Syrian campaign .

Also, unless we invest AP in coordinating the move with Cali, revealing the relic during Cali revolt will not be as effective PR wise for us and might draw steam away from California support after.

Alexander will roll ops against us , the revelation just means more ops, not we don't need to invest in internal security.
 
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Also, unless we invest AP in coordinating the move with Cali, revealing the relic during Cali revolt will not be as effective PR wise for us and might draw steam away from California support after.

How? What is the scenario here? California starts revolting and we make a statement along the lines of "We support our brothers and sisters in California declaring their independence, also we just found the Declaration of Independence what auspicious timing and a sign of good luck." Is someone going to go "well I was going to help California, but now that Chicago has found the declaration, guessse I won't anymore? "
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it secret, keep it safe. You're already enough of a target, as a Revivalist state. You don't need more reason for Alexander to put a kill order on you.

[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

Damn so many votes.
 
Ah, keeping it secret is winning.
Adhoc vote count started by Rivenscryr on Oct 10, 2019 at 10:04 PM, finished with 187 posts and 115 votes.
 
How? What is the scenario here? California starts revolting and we make a statement along the lines of "We support our brothers and sisters in California declaring their independence, also we just found the Declaration of Independence what auspicious timing and a sign of good luck." Is someone going to go "well I was going to help California, but now that Chicago has found the declaration, guessse I won't anymore? "
Competing news in the media cycle.
 
.... You way too optimistic. With the kind of hologram tech we seen, airborne lasers are a thing. Even with current PGMs, a squadron of B1 can work over 50 targets, considerably more once you consider unlike Serbia, we don't have the machine tools or trade networks to rebuild. Or any effective air defence network against current airforces.

Note, we talking very conservative numbers using the Serbian campaign as a guide since that's the last major strategic bombing offensive.

Our situation more likely falls under full airpower in the 21st century mode than the highly conservative Serbian or Syrian campaign .
Yes, and if Alexander deploys an overwhelming barrage of guided airstrikes spread out across much of North America, that is going to raise considerable concern and response worldwide. This is an underlying premise of the military status quo of the quest.

It's why the Russians (who had to know how brutally their puppets were being defeated) didn't simply airstrike us into the ground to preserve the Victorians' forces when they could have done it much more easily at Detroit compared to having to methodically target and wreck every relevant center of government and industry in a nation of (potentially) hundreds of thousands of square kilometers, one where the bulk of the population has already been forced to rely on a decentralized economy anyway because of Victoria's own actions.

To make matters worse for them now, their only reasonably reliable puppet army is now dead. If in the immediate future they want confirmation that their air campaign has successfully disjointed the Commonwealth badly enough to be decisive, they're likely to have to get it the hard way- with boots on the ground.

I'm sure they could wreck us with a serious air campaign, but even for hyperpowers those represent a huge investment and are not undertaken lightly or on speculation. The more expansive the required campaign

Also, unless we invest AP in coordinating the move with Cali, revealing the relic during Cali revolt will not be as effective PR wise for us and might draw steam away from California support after.
Well then maybe we should coordinate with them next turn. It's hardly impossible now that we have a sizeable international diplomatic presence and potential intermediaries, especially if New York is quietly on-side and prepared to act as a diplomatic intermediary.

Alexander will roll ops against us , the revelation just means more ops, not we don't need to invest in internal security.
Suffice to say that we can expect vastly more action against us if we reveal the Declaration openly, especially if we present the most inviting and obvious enemy target in North America at a point prior to the Californian rebellion. We are more likely to draw a subdued or 'non' reaction if we do not openly declare, even if Russia gets wind of our find.

It's a question of whether we can realistically hope to take precautions that will reduce the threat meaningfully, or if we've faced a threat too large to protect ourselves from.
 
Competing news in the media cycle.
But they would compliment each other in the media cycle. California is rebelling and the rising power in the Midwest is in full support for them, and reveals a legacy artifact to hold up as a symbol, and then FCNY gets in on the action by confirming the documents legitimacy and also speaking in support of the NCR(I trust them to understand what we're doing). That would be a massive PR coup.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

[X] Make it known to the world that you possess the Declaration of Independence, and invite the Free City of New York to Chicago to examine and confirm the authenticity of the document, as well as discussion possible restoration efforts. +8 Legitimacy, massive opinion boost with FCNY, large opinion boost with most polities within the former borders of the United States, negative attention from Japan, Russia, and Russian client states.
 
Visibility is not sufficient protection. I can't emphasize that enough. It is undeniably useful, but visibility and popularity alone will not save us from Russia. Just because we have public opinion on our side, and just because other nations like us, does not mean that they will actually help us. Announcing that we have the Declaration does not actually get us formal or informal diplomatic protection. It might help us get that protection, but when we're dealing with a threat like Russian intervention we don't want to bank our future on a "might".


This makes a lot of assumptions, to the point that it's basically just speculation.
Which is why you speedrun diplomatic protection the minute you make the reveal. The point is that we have a hot potato- we can either do something with it, or wait for the death squads.
 
Which is why you speedrun diplomatic protection the minute you make the reveal. The point is that we have a hot potato- we can either do something with it, or wait for the death squads.
Oh, for Pete's sake. Right now nobody even knows we have the Declaration. Even presuming he catches wind of what's happening, Alexander isn't going to be sending in death squads just because we stumbled upon the Declaration and then kept our mouths shut about it.
 
Oh, for Pete's sake. Right now nobody even knows we have the Declaration. Even presuming he catches wind of what's happening, Alexander isn't going to be sending in death squads just because we stumbled upon the Declaration and then kept our mouths shut about it.
And secrecy is an extremely poor shield for something this vital as a PR tool.

Wouldn't he?
 
And secrecy is an extremely poor shield for something this vital as a PR tool.
It only has to last a few years.

As previously discussed, probably not.

There just wouldn't be much point in expending that much effort.

Firstly, from Alexander's perspective it can easily be a rumor. I strongly suspect that the bulk of the National Archives was destroyed and the trail went cold. I doubt the Okhrana is exactly scouring America for signs of its re-emergence, especially given that something very upsetting just happened with Victoria that's giving them other things to think about, and that they have a fairly narrow window before the Californian uprising gives them something even bigger to think about. So awareness of the secret would take time to percolate into Russian awareness.

Secondly, dealing with the 'problem' of the Declaration's continued existence lacks urgency if the nation holding it isn't using it for PR. The Declaration of Independence simply isn't some kind of magic relic that is objectively interesting in itself to Alexander. It's relevant ONLY for PR value, and if it's not being used as such it's not an imminent threat.

Thirdly, when you have a seriously secured location to deal with, you can't just throw one commando unit or one airstrike and be sure of accomplishing the goal of destroying the target. Overcoming a whole country to destroy one of its treasures that is being kept in a secret location by loyal guards isn't simple or quick most of the time. Effort is a factor, and with worldwide obligations, Alexander IV is constantly asking himself "is it worth the effort?"

If all he had was a second or third-hand rumor that we have something important, the answer will usually be 'no.'
 
It only has to last a few years.

As previously discussed, probably not.

There just wouldn't be much point in expending that much effort.

Firstly, from Alexander's perspective it can easily be a rumor. I strongly suspect that the bulk of the National Archives was destroyed and the trail went cold. I doubt the Okhrana is exactly scouring America for signs of its re-emergence, especially given that something very upsetting just happened with Victoria that's giving them other things to think about, and that they have a fairly narrow window before the Californian uprising gives them something even bigger to think about. So awareness of the secret would take time to percolate into Russian awareness.

Secondly, dealing with the 'problem' of the Declaration's continued existence lacks urgency if the nation holding it isn't using it for PR. The Declaration of Independence simply isn't some kind of magic relic that is objectively interesting in itself to Alexander. It's relevant ONLY for PR value, and if it's not being used as such it's not an imminent threat.

Thirdly, when you have a seriously secured location to deal with, you can't just throw one commando unit or one airstrike and be sure of accomplishing the goal of destroying the target. Overcoming a whole country to destroy one of its treasures that is being kept in a secret location by loyal guards isn't simple or quick most of the time. Effort is a factor, and with worldwide obligations, Alexander IV is constantly asking himself "is it worth the effort?"

If all he had was a second or third-hand rumor that we have something important, the answer will usually be 'no.'
Given that rolling over and playing dead for the Victorians isn't an option at all and we're already attracting Russian notice, I would expect even rumours to be taken somewhat seriously. Add that to likely attempts to undermine us- very upsetting as you put it- and the fact California is going to make them take the continent more seriously again, and secrecy really seems less like a shield that can last as long as necessary, and more like a funeral shroud.
 
So... Just caught up.

Given our current resources and an unlikely ability to improve them rapidly, the resources necessary to burn our shit down are fairly small. We're talking a few squadrons of MiGs to do AtA, some SEAD planes, and then a few dozen BUFFs loaded with incendiaries. I know Russia has limited resources but even so they're a hegemon. Vulnerable doesn't even begin to describe us right now.

Or, hell, it'll ratchet tension something fierce but its not like we could stop a boomer from tossing a few nuke-tipped cruise missiles from the East Coast and the resources required to do that are miniscule by the standards of a superpower. The US rising again would be a deathblow to his precarious world order and right now we have no friends or anyone to really care. Its not like we're any of the big players.
 
and the fact California is going to make them take the continent more seriously again

Isn't the prevailing sentiment to reveal it either on the tricentennial (before California's rebellion) or at the time of said rebellion? I'm not seeing many people pushing for "keep it secret forever," though it's possible they're just quieter.
 
Yes, and if Alexander deploys an overwhelming barrage of guided airstrikes spread out across much of North America, that is going to raise considerable concern and response worldwide. This is an underlying premise of the military status quo of the quest.

It's why the Russians (who had to know how brutally their puppets were being defeated) didn't simply airstrike us into the ground to preserve the Victorians' forces when they could have done it much more easily at Detroit compared to having to methodically target and wreck every relevant center of government and industry in a nation of (potentially) hundreds of thousands of square kilometers, one where the bulk of the population has already been forced to rely on a decentralized economy anyway because of Victoria's own actions.

To make matters worse for them now, their only reasonably reliable puppet army is now dead. If in the immediate future they want confirmation that their air campaign has successfully disjointed the Commonwealth badly enough to be decisive, they're likely to have to get it the hard way- with boots on the ground.

I'm sure they could wreck us with a serious air campaign, but even for hyperpowers those represent a huge investment and are not undertaken lightly or on speculation. The more expansive the required campaign
That's the point... The Rubicon is direct military action. And it's going to be years, tens of turns before we can resist any Russian attack. Being larger won't protect us.

But we crossed the Russia won't notice us stage months ago. Unless you saying us waving a relic is enough to prompt a direct military campaign against us, then using it has us at the same stage in terms of threats. More actions against us but more of the same.

Well then maybe we should coordinate with them next turn. It's hardly impossible now that we have a sizeable international diplomatic presence and potential intermediaries, especially if New York is quietly on-side and prepared to act as a diplomatic intermediary.
Why spend the AP then, when we can use it now to smooth and enhance our existing 3 actions, two of which needs follow up actions on ? Also, reminder, our Intel agency capabilities is mostly Intel gathering. We have to invest in them or another plan to develop the ability to coordinate with California on cloak and dagger, failure on our end then means the Cali revolt is in danger and we lose the F16 and other OWE arsenal they have...

But they would compliment each other in the media cycle. California is rebelling and the rising power in the Midwest is in full support for them, and reveals a legacy artifact to hold up as a symbol, and then FCNY gets in on the action by confirming the documents legitimacy and also speaking in support of the NCR(I trust them to understand what we're doing). That would be a massive PR coup.
Really? How is the Mueller report, the judgement that DOJ must turn over said information to Congress 2 days ago and the ongoing obstruction of Justice by Barr doing now with the Ukraine and Australia news? Hell. Just the China and Australia phone call is enough to start diverting attention away from the fact that Trump is STILL abusing his power vis Sonderland and Pence until Congress grabbed said cycle and now diverted oxygen from them.
Suffice to say that we can expect vastly more action against us if we reveal the Declaration openly, especially if we present the most inviting and obvious enemy target in North America at a point prior to the Californian rebellion. We are more likely to draw a subdued or 'non' reaction if we do not openly declare, even if Russia gets wind of our find.
Russia is already taking diplomatic actions against us and is likely behind killing our spy network.

They stopped sure, which means we going to get more shit thrown our way, but Alexander is pragmatic. He's already going to do that since he disowned Victoria as being useful against us and we intergrated Detroit. The last heavy industry on the US east coast that Victoria allowed to stand that isn't resource extraction.

If we didn't want a subdued or non reaction, we shouldn't be doing peace talks in New York, a Victorian 'vassal' and conduit to the world for the NA continent.


Right now, our balancing act against Russia is no longer anonymity. Its European intervention if Russia destroys us vs European intervention if Russia fucks too much with us.
Oh, for Pete's sake. Right now nobody even knows we have the Declaration. Even presuming he catches wind of what's happening, Alexander isn't going to be sending in death squads just because we stumbled upon the Declaration and then kept our mouths shut about it.

Our dead agents say hi. They got hit by a force better trained than Victorian. Not spetnaz but even a Okhrana goon death squad is death to us.
 
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[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

+1 to T R I C E N T E N N I A L G A N G gang
 
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