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Victoria Falls: A Post-Collapse American Nation Quest [Down With Victoria!]

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PoptartProdigy said:
About the same. No panic, if you were hoping. For all their faults, these Victorians are professionals.
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Simon_Jester said:
I don't think any of us were expecting panic. Bullies don't panic the first time you make them bleed their own blood.
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I also wouldn't be that surprised if, assuming we manage to crack their codes sooner or later (which is massive incentive to start investing in some top-quality cryptographic computer systems), a substantial chunk of the stuff going to Leamington are admonitions like, "Rumford crushed Atlanta with gumption, ingenuity and sheer manly balls! Stop whining about losing your supply train and get moving, they're running away from you aren't they?"
 
[X] Plan Raise Periscope

Honestly, we have nothing to lose by seeing what the hell the Vicks are up to down south.
 
CompassJimbo said:
[] Plan Raise Periscope

Honestly, we have nothing to lose by seeing what the hell the Vicks are up to down south.
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I mean, we might lose people, or vehicles. I'm not going to assume it's zero-cost. It's just we really need to know.

LHB said:
I also wouldn't be that surprised if, assuming we manage to crack their codes sooner or later (which is massive incentive to start investing in some top-quality cryptographic computer systems), a substantial chunk of the stuff going to Leamington are admonitions like, "Rumford crushed Atlanta with gumption, ingenuity and sheer manly balls! Stop whining about losing your supply train and get moving, they're running away from you aren't they?"
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Victorian Army Major, stalking away from radio tent, muttering darkly:

"Gumption, ingenuity, and sheer manly balls. Would you happen to have another giant-ass thermo-nuclear war-head, sir?"

:D
 
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An idea for the threads consideration: Rebuilding our air force is going to be tough, and it may never be big enough to challenge that of Victoria. Even when Sister Cali breaks away, they're still going to have Papa Russia to get hardware from. Therefore, incurring as much attrition on the Victorian's ability to project air power should be considered a priority. Hence, the following proposal. We start building Mini-Subs and/or CAS planes... And then go for the fleet-in-being strategy with them, possibly even cutting the production run short that the remaining budget may be redirected elsewhere.

For the purposes of the present conflict, we don't need to control Lake Erie, merely deny it to the Vicks. Given that we just learned that aviation fuel is the one thing they can't cheat, forcing them to use tons and tons of it patrolling for threats seems like a winning plan in the long term. And if the threats in question only exist on paper, well, saves us some cash for other projects.
 
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bdun140 said:
An idea for the threads consideration: Rebuilding our air force is going to be tough, and it may never be big enough to challenge that of Victoria. Even when Sister Cali breaks away, they're still going to have Papa Russia to get hardware from. Therefore, incurring as much attrition on the Victorian's ability to project air power should be considered a priority. Hence, the following proposal. We start building Mini-Subs and/or CAS planes... And then go for the fleet-in-being strategy with them, possibly even cutting the production run short that the remaining budget may be redirected elsewhere.

For the purposes of the present conflict, we don't need to control Lake Erie, merely deny it to the Vicks. Given that we just learned that aviation fuel is the one thing they can't cheat, forcing them to use tons and tons of it patrolling for threats seems like a winning plan in the long term. And if the threats in question only exist on paper, well, saves us some cash for other projects.
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I don't think this will work. First, this isn't going to save much cash, developing and prototyping is a huge cost for any production, cutting it short will save us maybe one action. Two, it isn't likely to work. The Victorian air force has already shown a willingness to not use their scout planes until they've secured the skies, they aren't going to waste fuel on scouting the sea when they have far more important tasks and such as sinking our navy. Sub, especially subs that have a production run cut short, can raid some shipments, which is trivial to the absolute blockage our surface navy can do. The CAS at least has some other uses, but they are mainly for artillery substitution, which we are not short of, and they are aircraft, the one thing the Victorian air-force is very good at destroying. Trying to play catch me with F-16's in homemade aircraft is not likely to end well.
 
I don't know, I could get behind the idea.

An aircraft designed for CAS missions would be helpful as a way to "get our hand in" at aircraft design- nothing to sneeze at. They're relatively easy to build because the performance requirements aren't so high. They can double as a large reservoir of craft to train up our next generation of pilots- which is a very tight bottleneck right now. We could use it against 'minor problem' military threats on our borders (there are bound to be some sooner or later), and for reconnaissance...

...And to counter it, the Victorians have to keep their planes in the sky, burning fuel and using up spare parts. Even if we never actually use them anywhere they're likely to cross swords with Victorian F-16s.

It's more or less the exact kind of situation they would stereotypically use to wear down a more advanced power, come to think of it- us with our flying T-34s. :p
 
Simon_Jester said:
An aircraft designed for CAS missions would be helpful as a way to "get our hand in" at aircraft design- nothing to sneeze at. They're relatively easy to build because the performance requirements aren't so high. They can double as a large reservoir of craft to train up our next generation of pilots- which is a very tight bottleneck right now. We could use it against 'minor problem' military threats on our borders (there are bound to be some sooner or later), and for reconnaissance...
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Huh. We're actually in a position where having a bunch of A-10 Warthogs could be really helpful.
 
[X] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea
-[X][AIR] The air force is shattered, its pilots badly burnt out. Stand them down and give them a break. In the unlikely event that you need to piss away four planes at a later date, you can always call them back up again. It's not like their odds of making a dent will meaningfully improve by staying geared up.
[X][NAVY] Keep them out. The Vicks are already far fewer, they've burned some ammo, and they'll be strained by the dogfight. You have AA on the boats. The weather is more risky, but you think being able to keep artillery tubes hitting the onshore Victorians is more important than preservation at this stage.
-[X] Write-in: You don't know what the other half of the Victorian army is doing. Make it a priority to get some reconnaissance information on the situation south of the defense lines on the south side of the city, by whatever means seem feasible and not needlessly dangerous. This may include naval action after the weather clears, but not air action with the handful of planes you have left.

Our air force is spent as a major strike option right now, and they need to be rested. However, our Navy is not, and bad weather + defective Munitions is exactly the best case scenario for keeping them off our heads in a meaningful way. F-16s are not great air to ship platforms without specialized Munitions, they have to dive in and go to guns, bringing them right into our range. Using our Naval superiority now is the best time to exploit that. Keeping them intact and hidden away when we desperately need everything we can to oppose their numerical superiority on the ground is taking the counsel of our fears.
PoptartProdigy said:
With the caveat that I know nothing about how this sort of thing works, if it was possible during the Second World War, my ruling is that yes you can, and no it has not yet picked up major actions other than the Leamington landings.
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It is called Traffic Analysis, and it is a subset of signals intelligence. It is entirely possible to determine rather closely where division, Brigade, Battalion, and such headquarters are by the size and amount of signals traffic going in and out of them even if you cannot break the codes at all. Simply analyzing the volume and recipients of the traffic tells you quite a lot of information. Several Iraq divisions found that out the hard way in 1991.
 
Strypgia said:
[] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea
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I will approval-vote this along with my plan.

It is called Traffic Analysis, and it is a subset of signals intelligence. It is entirely possible to determine rather closely where division, Brigade, Battalion, and such headquarters are by the size and amount of signals traffic going in and out of them even if you cannot break the codes at all. Simply analyzing the volume and recipients of the traffic tells you quite a lot of information. Several Iraq divisions found that out the hard way in 1991.
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To be fair, the Commonwealth probably has a lot to learn about this military art; on the other hand the Victorians haven't fought anyone capable of using it effectively in a looong time.

[X] Plan Raise Periscope
-[X][AIR] The air force is shattered, its pilots badly burnt out. Stand them down and give them a break. In the unlikely event that you need to piss away four planes at a later date, you can always call them back up again. It's not like their odds of making a dent will meaningfully improve by staying geared up.
-[X][NAVY] Enemy air supremacy and foul weather, in shallow-drafted boats with no deck armor? Yeah, no. Pull your gunships back, and await a better opportunity. Time plays to your advantage with both of these problems. The army can endure, but every ship you lose is precious.
-[X] Write-in: You don't know what the other half of the Victorian army is doing. Make it a priority to get some reconnaissance information on the situation south of the defense lines on the south side of the city, by whatever means seem feasible and not needlessly dangerous. This may include naval action after the weather clears, but not air action with the handful of planes you have left.

[X] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea
 
[X] Plan Raise Periscope
-[X][AIR] The air force is shattered, its pilots badly burnt out. Stand them down and give them a break. In the unlikely event that you need to piss away four planes at a later date, you can always call them back up again. It's not like their odds of making a dent will meaningfully improve by staying geared up.
-[X][NAVY] Enemy air supremacy and foul weather, in shallow-drafted boats with no deck armor? Yeah, no. Pull your gunships back, and await a better opportunity. Time plays to your advantage with both of these problems. The army can endure, but every ship you lose is precious.
-[X] Write-in: You don't know what the other half of the Victorian army is doing. Make it a priority to get some reconnaissance information on the situation south of the defense lines on the south side of the city, by whatever means seem feasible and not needlessly dangerous. This may include naval action after the weather clears, but not air action with the handful of planes you have left.

[X] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea
 
Strypgia said:
It is called Traffic Analysis, and it is a subset of signals intelligence. It is entirely possible to determine rather closely where division, Brigade, Battalion, and such headquarters are by the size and amount of signals traffic going in and out of them even if you cannot break the codes at all. Simply analyzing the volume and recipients of the traffic tells you quite a lot of information. Several Iraq divisions found that out the hard way in 1991.
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Well, that has the tenor of an expert answer. :D

How much expert/specialized knowledge would one need to possess in order to do this sort of thing?
 
[X] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea

I suspect that the supply malus is only going to be -2 for the next clash, so that still leaves room for something to go wrong. The vics have lost about half their airforce we think, and are digging deeper into the pile of sabotaged parts and munitions, and bad weather is bad for air striks at least as much as it is for botes. I'd rather risk the navy than risk the vics getting lucky

and to be blunt, we can afford some damage to the navy. the vics don't have one right now. so we don'ot need a whole lot of warships to sink unarmed transports.
 
The supply malus was exponential if I remember correctly. That is -1,-2,-4,-8, and so on. It is probably not until the third clash with the eastern landing forces assuming they are not resupplied will the supply malus really bite.
 
random_npc said:
[] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea

I suspect that the supply malus is only going to be -2 for the next clash, so that still leaves room for something to go wrong. The vics have lost about half their airforce we think, and are digging deeper into the pile of sabotaged parts and munitions, and bad weather is bad for air striks at least as much as it is for botes. I'd rather risk the navy than risk the vics getting lucky

and to be blunt, we can afford some damage to the navy. the vics don't have one right now. so we don'ot need a whole lot of warships to sink unarmed transports.
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Remember that fewer gunboats also reduces the volume of fire that the fleet can apply to shore bombardments. One of the big roles of the gunboat fleet is to bombard the shore, and we're going to be counting heavily on those howitzers and mortars as, in effect, our mobile self-propelled artillery reserves.

I'm not opposed to keeping the gunboats out now that I think about it- "no captain can do very wrong if he places his ship alongside that of the enemy," and there's a passable chance that the sheer amount of damage to the Vik air force will keep them from hitting our gunboats heavily for the next few days, especially given the bad weather.

But I do want us to recognize that losses are costly- and that us losing gunboats in a storm is just as bad as if the Viks sink them.
 
Simon_Jester said:
I'm not opposed to keeping the gunboats out now that I think about it- "no captain can do very wrong if he places his ship alongside that of the enemy," and there's a passable chance that the sheer amount of damage to the Vik air force will keep them from hitting our gunboats heavily for the next few days, especially given the bad weather.

But I do want us to recognize that losses are costly- and that us losing gunboats in a storm is just as bad as if the Viks sink them.
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true. but it would be less costly than an infantry divsion, or the vics getting a lucky breakout. Losing ships would be bad but it would not be catastrophic at this point.
 
Simon_Jester said:
Remember that fewer gunboats also reduces the volume of fire that the fleet can apply to shore bombardments. One of the big roles of the gunboat fleet is to bombard the shore, and we're going to be counting heavily on those howitzers and mortars as, in effect, our mobile self-propelled artillery reserves.

I'm not opposed to keeping the gunboats out now that I think about it- "no captain can do very wrong if he places his ship alongside that of the enemy," and there's a passable chance that the sheer amount of damage to the Vik air force will keep them from hitting our gunboats heavily for the next few days, especially given the bad weather.

But I do want us to recognize that losses are costly- and that us losing gunboats in a storm is just as bad as if the Viks sink them.
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My main thought here is that the Vicks are afraid of our gunboats, and are likely to try to assault our lines 10 miles from shore* so until they come close enough to our final defensive lines that they have to get near the shore, our gunboats may be out of play. Plus, their airforce can be thought of as their mobile artillery and given we have both actual artillery and fortification and they have not...

On the other hand, our gunboats are working artillery, and their planes are sabotaged, so perhaps I should be considering this in light of my previous "Ignore the airforce it's a trap" stance, exposing our ships to bad weather isn't worth blowing up a marginal, half beaten airforce.

That said, I do think we need to think about risking our shiny navy, since, like it or not, at this point the western front will determine the war, and anything our ships can do to even the odds, even at casualties for them, is ideal. I sort of favor cutting off Toldeo supplies once they start moving out, burning supplies and perhaps catching any command still there, disrupting the assault. Which argues for preserving full gunboat strength until then, Still...

[X] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea



*Though given that the Vicks who are most learning this are the eastern assault, perhaps the western one will decided they are just cowards and press on through.
 
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