Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

[Fouredged Sword]

Actually, he said there was a 50/50 chance of "contesting" them (on second glance, I'm not sure if that means winning). But it does say something about the sorry state of their levy.



I guess that is a concern...

Since Dafydd already thought it was 50/50, I was hoping he'd fight a holding action until we responded with our own levy the next turn.

But I'm not sure if our characters are on the same page about prolonging the war as we are.

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No, he said

If Tinshore's city levy was poorly led and the weather was with him, Dafydd would give himself 50/50 odds.

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IF the levi is poorly led AND the weather favors our troops they STILL would only stand a 50/50 shot of winning.

Meaning next turn we may be required to send a levi in without adequate support. They may be low on supply, but without their numbers our forces could be overrun. Even if they are only useful for backing up the professional armies they may be needed.

It's why I really want to potentially be able to rent out the Khem navy and why I really want to raise as much money NOW as we can so we can afford to actually do that next turn.

Or failing that deal with the economic loss of seeing the levi suffer mass casualties.

 

[Kiba]

Actually, he said there was a 50/50 chance of "contesting" them (on second glance, I'm not sure if that means winning). But it does say something about the sorry state of their levy.

I guess that is a concern...

Since Dafydd already thought it was 50/50, I was hoping he'd fight a holding action until we responded with our own levy the next turn.

But I'm not sure if our characters are on the same page about prolonging the war as we are.

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My concern is about not losing rather than intentionally prolonging a war. In any case, it shouldn't be too expensive to a hire a little bit of help for the missing naval score.

 

[Fouredged Sword]

My concern is about not losing rather than intentionally prolonging a war. In any case, it shouldn't be too expensive to a hire a little bit of help for the missing naval score.

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We need 1 treasury to fund the levi as well though, so we need more treasury and we need it now.

 

[noncannon]

So why is everyone interesting in backing the Khem rebels rather than... uh, whatever the other faction is?

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🤷‍♀️

No, he said


IF the levi is poorly led AND the weather favors our troops they STILL would only stand a 50/50 shot of winning.

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Hmm, maybe I can't read right now.

Yeah, that's a risk unless we can specifically give orders to Dafydd to draw the war out until our ships are done.

@Aranfan: can we order Dafydd not to provoke the Tinshore levy until we have the ships to support our own levy?

I think that should make sense in-character, unlike dragging out the war indefinitely.

 

[Briefvoice]

Well if there's no justification for it then I would suggest we try selling to the royalist faction or factions of Khem rather than a rebel alliance.

 

[Fouredged Sword]

🤷‍♀️



Hmm, maybe I can't read right now.

Yeah, that's a risk unless we can specifically give orders to Dafydd to draw the war out until our ships are done.

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Honestly if we can't get the levi I am in support of sending the army, the banner company, AND a levi, but then giving it orders to not advance beyond it's logistics even if that means not advancing. At the very least we can please the revanchists for a year through military movement and defend the boarder from Tinshore retaliation while we build up our navy. Our levi will be better than Tinshore's levi and even if it turns into a slow walk accross their country as we have to build supply lines I am willing to accept that.

 

[065tdsa]

So why is everyone interesting in backing the Khem rebels rather than... uh, whatever the other faction is?

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Because there's no other faction?

Khem devolves further into chaos!: The king of KMT has died. His sons, rather than combining their forces to put down the rebellion, have immediately started fighting each other for the succession. At the same time, the pagans and imperfectionists have appeared to come to some sort of arrangement, as they focus on the royalist forces.

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The two completely separate kinds of rebels agreed to work together while the heirs to the throne squabble.

 

[Kiba]

We need 1 treasury to fund the levi as well though, so we need more treasury and we need it now.

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Need to account for Rhys dying.

We need 1 treasury to raise the levy, another treasury to hire a boat out, and a treasury level to ensure that our finance isn't fucked if Rhys dies.

Well if there's no justification for it then I would suggest we try selling to the royalist faction or factions of Khem rather than a rebel alliance.

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There is no royalist fraction. They're all fighting each other. It doesn't matter which one we choose to sell, just that we sell to all of them eventually.

Because there's no other faction? The former king's two sons don't get along, apparently.

Emphasis mine.

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They have only two sons?

 

[Aranfan]

I don't really like the idea of the revanchists being happy with a long war. So I will probably have them throw shit fits if the war goes on to long.

Debilitating Belief, and all.

Also. Reminder: monsoon sea diplomacy counts towards Txolla concerns.

 

[ALanos]

Why should we allow them to be stable it has been Ymaryn policy to allow a certain sense of instability to our neighbors. Also, prolonging wars is good policy to ensure the treasury won't keel over.

 

[Kiba]

Maybe we can delay raising a banner company to save the money to buy a naval score from Khem or Vynta or Pomp?

 

[Fouredged Sword]

Need to account for Rhys dying.

We need 1 treasury to raise the levy, another treasury to hire a boat out, and a treasury level to ensure that our finance isn't fucked if Rhys dies.



There is no royalist fraction. They're all fighting each other. It doesn't matter which one we choose to sell, just that we sell to all of them eventually.



They have only two sons?

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This is why my plan focuses on getting up to +4 treasury.

[X] Lighting Fires for fun and profit
-[X] Authority : Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)- First Son's faction
-[X] Influence : Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)- Second Son's facton
-[X] Influence : Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)- Pagans
-[X] Influence : Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)- Imperfectionists
-[X] Influence : Honor of Elites, Tinshore: Demand the rebels surrender and swear fealty once again to their rightful lord! (Narrative%. 1 year, +Influence, Casus Belli if failed)
-[X] Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)
-[X] Free : Deploy Banner Companies: Uncommitted Banner Companies may be deployed to a war zone of your choice - Deploy them along the Thunder Plateu boarder to prevent raiding to satisfy Txollan King.

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Because there's no other faction?

The two completely separate kinds of rebels agreed to work together while the heirs to the throne squabble.

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This doesn't mean there is only the rebels to sell to.

It means there are now 4 sides of this war to sell to.

 

[Briefvoice]

There is no royalist fraction. They're all fighting each other. It doesn't matter which one we choose to sell, just that we sell to all of them eventually.

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That's not true:

Rumor Mill:

Khem devolves further into chaos!: The king of KMT has died. His sons, rather than combining their forces to put down the rebellion, have immediately started fighting each other for the succession. At the same time, the pagans and imperfectionists have appeared to come to some sort of arrangement, as they focus on the royalist forces.

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There are multiple royal factions, and then there's also the pagans and imperfectionists. I would assume that if a vote says "sell to rebels" @Aranfan will interpret that as selling to the pagans and imperfectionists. I think it's a mistake to let a major foreign policy choice like that slide under the radar while everyone is debating other aspects of the plans.

 

[Kiba]

That's not true:

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In the most quibbling of ways.

There are multiple royal factions, and then there's also the pagans and imperfectionists. I would assume that if a vote says "sell to rebels" @Aranfan will interpret that as selling to the pagans and imperfectionists. I think it's a mistake to let a major foreign policy choice like that slide under the radar while everyone is debating other aspects of the plans.

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And? There's no one better groups to sell guns to for an immediate profit.

 

[Oshha]

So why is everyone interesting in backing the Khem rebels rather than... uh, whatever the other faction is?

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The two rebel factions have allied together while the royalist faction has split into at least two and possible more.

There are multiple royal factions, and then there's also the pagans and imperfectionists. I would assume that if a vote says "sell to rebels" @Aranfan will interpret that as selling to the pagans and imperfectionists. I think it's a mistake to let a major foreign policy choice like that slide under the radar while everyone is debating other aspects of the plans.

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It isn't a foreign policy decision, it is a business one. We are doing a neutral action of selling guns to a group at war with the money to pay for the bombards. We aren't siding with or against any of the factions in the Khem civil war.

Selling guns is a one-time decision with no commitments or other agreements attached to it. We sell some guns? We aren't backing or allying with someone, we are just doing business with them.

 

[Briefvoice]

Selling guns is a one-time decision with no commitments or other agreements attached to it. We sell some guns? We aren't backing or allying with someone, we are just doing business with them.

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It seems kind of naive to assume that selling weapons to one side in a war won't have foreign policy implications. If one of the royal factions wins, you think they're going to forget that we sold weapons to their enemies? It might be "just business" to us, but they have no reason to see it that way.

 

[Fouredged Sword]

I will also propose a slightly less fire filled plan. This supports only the royal factions of Khem and infiltrates Black Sheep to ensure the king remains pleased.

[] Lighting Fires for fun and profit
-[] Authority : Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)- First Son's faction
-[] Influence : Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)- Second Son's facton
-[] Influence : Infiltration, Black Sheep: You can't imagine the People of the Thunder Plateau are happy to be under nomad bootheel. See if you can't find some organized resistance to speak to or fund. (???%. ? Years. ???)
-[] Influence : Sell Bombards, Kus Minors: Do any of the minor powers of Kus want bombards? (75%, 1 Year, Probable Profit)
-[] Influence : Honor of Elites, Tinshore: Demand the rebels surrender and swear fealty once again to their rightful lord! (Narrative%. 1 year, +Influence, Casus Belli if failed)
-[] Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)
-[] Free : Deploy Banner Companies: Uncommitted Banner Companies may be deployed to a war zone of your choice - Deploy them along the Thunder Plateu boarder to prevent raiding to satisfy Txollan King.

 

[065tdsa]

It seems kind of naive to assume that selling weapons to one side in a war won't have foreign policy implications. If one of the royal factions wins, you think they're going to forget that we sold weapons to their enemies? It might be "just business" to us, but they have no reason to see it that way.

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By that logic we'd be best off not selling guns to any faction since there's no telling which faction may win, but we need money and the rebels are looking good if only by dint of being united.

 

[Kiba]

It seems kind of naive to assume that selling weapons to one side in a war won't have foreign policy implications. If one of the royal factions wins, you think they're going to forget that we sold weapons to their enemies? It might be "just business" to us, but they have no reason to see it that way.

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Either we sell guns, or we don't.

 

[Oshha]

It seems kind of naive to assume that selling weapons to one side in a war won't have foreign policy implications. If one of the royal factions wins, you think they're going to forget that we sold weapons to their enemies? It might be "just business" to us, but they have no reason to see it that way.

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They'll be annoyed about it for sure, but we got no agreements regarding the matter and they won't be especially annoyed about it just as the rebels won't be especially grateful if they win. They won't like us doing business with their enemies, but we are siding with their enemies or allying with them.

If the royalists faction read more into it, we can't help that and if they do make a fuss, then I am of the option that their options don't match for being detached from reality.

 

[Briefvoice]

By that logic we'd be best off not selling guns to any faction since there's no telling which faction may win, but we need money and the rebels are looking good if only by dint of being united.

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Us selling weapons to one side also makes it more likely that they win. All I'm asking for is some discussion and acknowledgment that there could be repercussions down the line beyond how much it fills our treasury. Personally, I think that given that we already made some diplomatic progress with Khem royalty it's better to back them. Selling equally to royal factions is at least a consistent diplomatic position.

Either we sell guns, or we don't.

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Selling weapons is always about both the money and about which side you want to support.

[X] Lighting Fires for fun and profit

 

[Fouredged Sword]

They'll be annoyed about it for sure, but we got no agreements regarding the matter and they won't be especially annoyed about it just as the rebels won't be especially grateful if they win. They won't like us doing business with their enemies, but we are siding with their enemies or allying with them.

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On the other hand we are talking about maybe being able to rent the Khem navy next turn. Perhaps it would be unwise to seem to be favoring the rebels if we want that to even be a thing that's possible.

 

[Kiba]

Us selling weapons to one side also makes it more likely that they win. All I'm asking for is some discussion and acknowledgment that there could be repercussions down the line beyond how much it fills our treasury. Personally, I think that given that we already made some diplomatic progress with Khem royalty it's better to back them. Selling equally to royal factions is at least a consistent diplomatic position.

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Sure, but we aren't committed to selling guns on only one side.

 

[Oshha]

All I'm asking for is some discussion and acknowledgment that there could be repercussions down the line beyond how much it fills our treasury. Personally, I think that given that we already made some diplomatic progress with Khem royalty it's better to back them. Selling equally to royal factions is at least a consistent diplomatic position.

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If one of the Khem royalists factions raises a fuss and trying to turn us selling guns into something more than it is, then tough luck. We can't control what foreign factions do and if one of them decides to be idiots about us doing our business, then we can't help that short of shooting ourselves in the foot.

Furthermore, we haven't made progress with the Khem royalty, we had nothing to do with them specifically. What we did get was an opinion boost with the Khem that we then lost due to selling guns to Abyss. Claiming that we made diplomatic progress with one of the factions is just outright wrong because we haven't. Additionally, there isn't a royal faction to back, they splintered into multiple groups and you have already quoted where that is stated in a previous post of yours.

 

[noncannon]

There's an easy enough way to broadcast neutrality:

-[] 2x Influence: Sell Bombards, Khem: The Khemetri seem to really like buying bombards from you. See if they want some more. (70%. 1 year. Profitable)
--[] All factions, equally

I do think that there's a unique chance of a diplomatic resolution, thanks to the Starpox. Might as well max the roll on that to see what happens.

@Aranfan: is this an acceptable vote? And, just to make sure, does Authority actually do anything for Honor of Elites?