Voting is open
We can hold the canal more or less indefinitely, the two month time limit is if it's contested across that time.

Well, I guess it is fair to say that as long as we do not fight for it, we can hold it. :V
If civl war weren't going as abysmally as it does, I'd call this comment "technically correct but utterly irrelevant", as canal is vital strategic object. However, with civil war being what it is, you do have a point there.
Still, this is not something we should build our strategy around, "vickies are too busy to contest canal" is our absolute best-case scenario.
 
Well, I guess it is fair to say that as long as we do not fight for it, we can hold it. :V
If civl war weren't going as abysmally as it does, I'd call this comment "technically correct but utterly irrelevant", as canal is vital strategic object. However, with civil war being what it is, you do have a point there.
Still, this is not something we should build our strategy around, "vickies are too busy to contest canal" is our absolute best-case scenario.
Which it isn't what we built our strategy around. Again, the goal here is to look like we're entirely ready to sally forth and stomp Victoria in order to pressure them back to the peace table to take the deal.
 
Time to retake what they stole. That land was never theirs, and they have no right to it.
I mean, later maybe. Not right now.
Which it isn't what we built our strategy around. Again, the goal here is to look like we're entirely ready to sally forth and stomp Victoria in order to pressure them back to the peace table to take the deal.
I wonder what the hell we do if they don't come back to the table.
 
Still, this is not something we should build our strategy around, "vickies are too busy to contest canal" is our absolute best-case scenario.

I wouldn't call that a best-case scenario. We really, really need them to attack us at the canal at least once so we can stomp them in the mud and force them back to the table. The longer we sit on the canal and wait the less credible our threat to continue invading Victoria unless they make peace now becomes.
 
I mean, later maybe. Not right now.

I wonder what the hell we do if they don't come back to the table.
...hope it does not happen? :V
Like, it's an all or nothing bluff we are doing here.

I wouldn't call that a best-case scenario. We really, really need them to attack us at the canal at least once so we can stomp them in the mud and force them back to the table. The longer we sit on the canal and wait the less credible our threat to continue invading Victoria unless they make peace now becomes.

If they do not attack us, they give us choice of where to attack them, or even just raid them via air and naval forces. We can prod them at will, spending least necessary amount of munitions on most damaging targets. That's going to be more damaging to their will than geting curbstomped again IMO.
 
when we pull back, I think there should be an option for people who want to run to book it with our corridor. I believe most would stay put, this life being all they've known and what not, but it's a golden opportunity for others.

I'm also very curious about the Victorian Resistance. Didn't we get a message from them a couple updates back? Or was that just an interlude ft. them?
 
when we pull back, I think there should be an option for people who want to run to book it with our corridor. I believe most would stay put, this life being all they've known and what not, but it's a golden opportunity for others.

I'm also very curious about the Victorian Resistance. Didn't we get a message from them a couple updates back? Or was that just an interlude ft. them?
Free movement is one of the clauses of the treaty we plan to force on the vics.
 
Not a chance.

You want Russia to drop 'Peacekeeper's' down? That's how you get it.

This is already dangerous enough that the likelihood of sudden 'Patriots' appearing from out of nowhere with modern military equipment and training is a legitimate danger. Actually threatening the capital of the puppet state means he's a lot less likely to be coy about intervention.
My bet would be on Alexander looking at the situation, concluding that realistically the Commonwealth can't sustain continuous air operations even if they can stage a single air-raid, and continuing to ignore the situation. But, well, low-order probability of him ordering a bigger response than he would have ordered anyway. So yeah.

If all goes well in our favor, do we keep these villages, or do we have to return them to Vicks in the Peace Treaty?

And in case of latter, can we relocate the people to our side of the border?
The people we're referring to already are, as I understand it, the inhabitants of the Canadian side of Lake Erie's shore. They live in territory not claimed, but frequently raided and harassed, by Victoria. We don't get to keep them unless they join the Commonwealth.

Relocating civilians is likely to become an issue, though. We may also have issues with this on Victorian soil.

I wouldn't call that a best-case scenario. We really, really need them to attack us at the canal at least once so we can stomp them in the mud and force them back to the table. The longer we sit on the canal and wait the less credible our threat to continue invading Victoria unless they make peace now becomes.
If they let us hold the canal area unmolested for a long time, we have options to escalate further. We can, for example, build a forward airbase in the area and use it to stage deep air raids into Victorian territory- they'll be little more than pinpricks but fucking humiliating to the Vicks. We can use our uncontested control of the undamaged canal locks to slip a gunboat raiding force into Lake Ontario and blow shit up. We can take our time in clearing Lake Erie's shore of any residual Victorian forces at all, reducing risk to ourselves.

All these things would be difficult or risky if either side of the civil war presses us hard in the area we now hold- but if that doesn't happen, we have more options.

Free movement is one of the clauses of the treaty we plan to force on the vics.
Yeah, but since we're now physically IN territory the Victorians will be reclaiming immediately after a peace treaty is signed, there's concern of Victorian reprisal killings against civilians in the area who liked us too much. The free movement clause alone doesn't really cover that adequately.
 
Yeah, but since we're now physically IN territory the Victorians will be reclaiming immediately after a peace treaty is signed, there's concern of Victorian reprisal killings against civilians in the area who liked us too much. The free movement clause alone doesn't really cover that adequately.
Maybe we should consider letting the population in the area we just took know that we are not staying for long and that we will eventually retreat. and then give them the option of evacuating into the commonwealth to avoid reprisals.

@PoptartProdigy Could we have an option to offer the People in the territory we just took who welcomed us an opportunity to evacuate into the commonwealth?

I ask because eventually we will either retreat peacefully or be forced to retreat due to counter attacks from Victorian forces. And since the people in the area welcomed us we might want to offer them the opportunity while it exists.

For those of you who are curious about the RL Big Red One. here is a link. Fun fact, My Grandfather served in that Division.
 
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My bet would be on Alexander looking at the situation, concluding that realistically the Commonwealth can't sustain continuous air operations even if they can stage a single air-raid, and continuing to ignore the situation. But, well, low-order probability of him ordering a bigger response than he would have ordered anyway. So yeah.

The people we're referring to already are, as I understand it, the inhabitants of the Canadian side of Lake Erie's shore. They live in territory not claimed, but frequently raided and harassed, by Victoria. We don't get to keep them unless they join the Commonwealth.

Relocating civilians is likely to become an issue, though. We may also have issues with this on Victorian soil.

If they let us hold the canal area unmolested for a long time, we have options to escalate further. We can, for example, build a forward airbase in the area and use it to stage deep air raids into Victorian territory- they'll be little more than pinpricks but fucking humiliating to the Vicks. We can use our uncontested control of the undamaged canal locks to slip a gunboat raiding force into Lake Ontario and blow shit up. We can take our time in clearing Lake Erie's shore of any residual Victorian forces at all, reducing risk to ourselves.

All these things would be difficult or risky if either side of the civil war presses us hard in the area we now hold- but if that doesn't happen, we have more options.

Yeah, but since we're now physically IN territory the Victorians will be reclaiming immediately after a peace treaty is signed, there's concern of Victorian reprisal killings against civilians in the area who liked us too much. The free movement clause alone doesn't really cover that adequately.
I wont say its low probability of Alexender intervening.

Remember, Quest master stated that if we hadnt let the press in, LGM would had shown up already. Alexander doesnt want to waste time and resources on a lost cause unless Vics can prove they win. But if we go too far, he still needs to slap us a little. A single PGM strike at our Detroit or other logistic base can now potentially destroy the bulk of our army , including Burns. But
 
I am imagining a concept album about the rise of the Commonwealth in the style of Carolus Rex.

Victoria's Fall
Track 1: 40 Years In the Desert

- Anthem to Ron Burns and the Devils Brigade's time surviving post fall America.
- Mainly focused on the struggle to keep together rather than any particular battle.
- Includes guest vocals by the lead singer of The Devil's Midwives, a relatively unknown band that had already made a concept album about Ron Burns.
Track 2: Scatter/Shatter the Swastika
- Anthem to Sara Johnson and Sara Goldblum vs the Wisconsin neo-nazis.
- Thrash/Power metal hybrid.
- Chorus is a goddamn ear worm, particularly given that is a duet between high and harsh vocals.
-- Hmm hmm hmm scatter shatter the swastika hmm hmm hmm.
Track 3: Keep the Best, Throw Out the Rest
- About the Chicago Constitutional convention.
- Shockingly popular, no one expected a song about a political convention to be just that catchy.
- Also shockingly historically accurate and informative. The song is a very good primer on the politics of the early 2070s.
-- There is one particular verse where they took some liberties (massaging a quote by Sara Johnson)/made a mistake (attributed it to Sara Goldblum). That verse happens to the catchiest part of the song, and has been used as the basis of trick questions on many a history/social studies quiz.
Track 4: Worms and Winter
- About the early troubles of the Commonwealth, in particular the first winter and the traitor.
- More than a little unkind to Chicagoland's neighbors for price gouging the young nation.
- Treats the assassin and Sperling pretty interchangeably.
- hmm hmm enemies within, thieves all around, the world itself against them hmm hmm hmm.
Track 5: Two Cities of Steel
- Anthem for Detroit and Toledo.
- Uses Toledeo->Toledo Steel->sword steel->metaphor for Toledo's martial tradition.
- Detroit gets an industrial steel metaphor.
Track 6: Storm of the Inland Sea
- Anthem for the Commonwealth navy, sung from a (groundbound) Victorian perspective.
- References the Buffalo raid, the shelling of the advance on the Raisin line, and the bombardment of the islands.
- The Victorian Navy never even gets mentioned.
- hmm hmm Surely the skies will save us... then from INLAND SEA they came, death on the wave, fire and fury from the HEAVENS hmm hmm hmm.
Track 7: Broken on the Beaches
- About the Leamington landing/Eastern offensive and the destruction of Moses division, again from a Victorian perspective.
- hmm hmm then THE DEVILS CAME to do god's will, sent us to heaven hmm hmm hmm
Track 8: Quality of Mercy
- Final song from Victorian perspective, about troops surrendering and being shocked at, y'know, not being subjected to war crimes.
Track 9: We Have Seen the Enemy
- Anthem for Liberator Division
Track 10: Pride In the Skies
- Anthem for the Commonwealth Airforce.
- Also an anthem for Commonwealth LGBT.
-- Band's lead vocalists are gay and bisexual, and they clearly idolize Jeremy Torres.
 
I figure the likely outcomes here:
1) They attack us in force and dislodge us - Our bluff was called and we folded. Worst case scenario, though unlikely unless they unify with the Crusaders somehow.
2) They attack us in force, and keep attacking through to the limits of our ability to hold it - This is a suicide pact, theres a really good chance the Victorians collapse and leave the Crusaders in charge or unopposed, but the question is how well can WE hold that state?
3) They hit us to call the bluff, and withdraw after getting their hands seared - This likely means they have to go back to the negotiating table even if only to buy time, they simply can't fight both sides at once.
4) They ignore us and go for the Crusaders to try to crush them so they can pivot on us - We do whatever the heck we want, but said heck hopefully involves serious business fortification, logistics rewiring and exploiting the PR victory to the hilt, because if theres anything left of the Victorians they're sure as hell coming for that grudge match.
5) They fold like paper and immediately go back to the negotiating table, because they didn't think we COULD hit them.

5 is best of course, but 3 is an okay scenario.
4 is a Think Fast scenario and 2 is when we want to start sacrificing to Dread Arengee.
 
The Loyalists' objective is, nominally, "Hold until relieved," but swiftly becomes, "IT'S THE FUCKING DEVILS, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES! Also Command wants us to blow the locks so if you can do that it'd be great FUCKING RUN!"
Actually surprised they want them to blow the locks.
Panic maybe. Unless they are afraid of not being able to hold the area at all, which removes the possibility of mortaring any users.

And intact locks do pose the imminent threat of Commonwealth Naval gunships staging through the canal and attacking Rochester.
Two gunships with aerial recon would probably do a roundtrip and back.
Risky but possible, especially after we demonstrated the will with the strike at Buffalo.

And the threat will drive most merchant traffic away from a 200-300km bubble.
Basic shore defenses: 1 point (not really forts, but multiple fallback lines from vulnerable shore zones that show signs of having been constructed with worrying competence).
Calling attention to this.
There may well be foreign cadres already present in Victoria. Blackwell can presumably pay whatever the current version of Wagner Group is moneys to send over mercenaries military advisors and trainers, even if Alexander refuses to raise a finger.

He gets enough, the Loyalists' lack of training compensating for the abysmal luck the scouts have had. The final word from intelligence is, once all the reports were compiled: no more than fifteen thousand militia within eight hours' travel of the Canal, not if reinforcements intend to fight at the end of their trip. Of those fifteen thousand, they're mostly spread out between the isthmus the Canal bridges, and the city of Buffalo. No force concentration; no bulk.
Fifteen thousand is about the strength of a regular, full-fat division. A Vic division is about ten thousand.
So they have a division and half of Vic militia, with questionable levels of heavy weapons. Concentrating them to fight will take at least a full day, probably more. Two to three days would be a more realistic estimate.

It might actually be faster to ship in organized divisions from upstate than to wait until they're done pulling together the locals.
... random thought...
Victoria's capital is in Augusta, Maine, right? That's easily in range of a F-16 with drop tanks from Buffalo.
Let's show some Vics what it feels like to cower under an air raid if this invasion doesn't do the trick.
I'd be in favor of it under other circumstances- if we had any short-term supply of new aircraft, or more than twenty jets total, and if I weren't worried about the strain on our engineering assets of sustaining a workable airfield capable of operating F-16s right around our holdings around the Welland Canal.
What Simon said. Forward-basing our F16s is inordinately risky and expensive.
And if we're going to risk F-16s on air raids, we'd be best advised to do it where it counts for a nation in civil war.
Like whatever refineries/fuel depots that Victoria still has.

Propaganda matters.
But there's only so much propaganda shock to apply to a nation at civil war once you've landed troops on their borders. And Victoria is not a democracy, so they have a certain resistance to short-term popular opinion. Apply real pressure.
Yeah. But it is a great crusade nevertheless. And frankly, we already brought out Normandy. Lets square the circle.
Nah.
This is more Dieppe than Normandy.
More August Storm than Downfall.

Limited operations, limited goals.
Making it into some crusade risks losing sight of that.
I wonder what the hell we do if they don't come back to the table.
Rip the guts out of New York State's infrastructure before we leave?
Settle down and wage air raids and infantry strikes against the power grid, gasoline pipelines, fuel depots, port facilities,...everything we can comfortably reach from the New York State border. Attempt to receive any abductees and slaves we can reach.

Then permanently deny them access to the economy of the upper three or four lakes, which will put a permanent crimp in their post-civil war economy. New York State accounts for anywhere between 25-50% of Victoria's habitable territory, being the combined size of RI,CT,MA,NH and VA, with excess to spare. A significant portion of both their population, industry and farmland is here.
 
This is interesting. I am a northeast Ohioan myself, and grew up near the lakes. I would be in my 80s by this era, and would be one of (I am sure there are others) the oldest surviving millenials in Ohio if I last that long.

Does Victoria control Northeast Ohio?

Also, Zanesvile Ohio, which is much further south, has a sizable militia that would probably be growing bigger in this particular world.
 
Canon Omake: Vox Populi Breaking Update - Civil War
Vox Populi Breaking Update- Civil War

Ladies, gentlemen, awesome people of all types. This is a breaking update.

First off, don't panic. No raids are being conducted in upper Ontario.

Oh, Max reporting here, by the way.

Now, as you all know, Victoria has been having its own little football game between the CMC and loyalist forces. Though details are challenging to determine, there is a fierce rivalry between head coaches, Blackwell, and...(sound of paper rustling). Jesus Christ.

That wasn't a curse, to clarify, the official highest general of the CMC is Jesus, who will take command on the last day to purge the world. I want to emphasize that, again, I am not making this up. This is in their own books. Please don't ask how we got those books, we won't tell you. I can say that the entire CMC upper command is utterly trustworthy, and none of them have turned, none all.

I will also remind people that there is no evidence that the rivalry comes from a bad breakup between Blackwell and one of the, shall we say, more earthly CMC generals. There has been no official response to rumors that their affair was broken up by the inquisitors, and a heartbroken Blackwell was forced to side against his lover.

I am, however, being reminded to focus on the point. This morning the 1st division of CMC crusaders, along with a conscripted population that is estimated between 15 and 25 thousand individuals, broke out of defensive lines around Buffalo, linking up with the 3rd. Reports are that they are attempting to rebuild the division that suffered from a terminal case of Commonwealth Burns. Commonwealth Burns is a terrible disease that has been ravaging Victorian aid workers in recent years. In fact, Detroit recently had a terrible infection of it, and reports from doctors are that at this point, it may not be removable. All Victorian are advised to stay away from Detroit.

Also, to get serious for a moment. If anyone in Victoria can hear this, keep the hell away from the CMC. I've looked at the book we have we have and... bluntly, half our experts are sure this has to the propaganda. This can't be their actual training, it's too ridiculous. But if it is, well, no wonder they need 15-25 thousand to reconstruct a 10 thousand man division, and your odds are probably better just trying to run.

But, veering from that, my college, Cera, will be taking over for reporting on what this means for the folks at home. Cera?

Thank you, Max. First, I want to emphasize that I am no expert in western or Victorian affairs. What is provided here is a quick analysis, and I urge listeners to pay attention to any follow-up reports, which will offer more careful analysis.

With the withdrawal of the CMC from Buffalo, the coast is entirely in the hands of Loyalist forces. While limited naval raids have been conducted in the upper Ontario region for supplies, it is not believed that such strikes will appear in the Erie region. Blackwell's negotiations are too delicate, though one or two may be done as a 'show of strength" to increase the perceived value to the Commonwealth of a naval withdrawal from Erie, though current analysis seems unlikely.

Resource raids in Ontario are expected to continue, though they are not likely to expand. They are believed to already be at their maximum remaining naval capacity, and with the CMC focusing on the interior, loyalist forces will likely put resources to other projects. Given troop quality and focus, limited raids may be fought off, however potential Victorian-retaliation post-war must be considered. Individual communities should leave it up to their own judgement.

The concentrated fighting around the interior is expected to increase internal displacement for Victorian civilians. However, the arduous journey to outside the borders means that an external refugee crisis is not likely to come full force until the winter months. Such a crisis will likely result in an influx to the wilds of Pennsylvania as the primary location, but all areas may experience such. On that, the Vox Populi would state our unequivocal support to those fleeing the horrors of Victoria, and encourage compassion. The people fleeing arn't the armies that ravaged us.

Within Victoria itself, this has resulted in the CMC being supplied and reinforced and ended hope of a quick victory for Blackwell against a divided opponent. Expect this war to drag on, though current analysis does not favor the CMC without a decapitation strike against Blackwell. Further information is limited, and speculation as to the long-term effect of the protracted militia's are still being debated.

Finally, this is almost certainly will affect the Commonwealth-Victoria negotiations. With such a changeup, the Commonwealth no longer needs to fight through the CMC to threaten Blackwell's directly. A strike against Buffalo threatens his forces. Additionally, said treaty must be maintained until the CMC is defeated. So far no official announcements have taken place, but unofficial ones indicate a breakdown of negotiations.


OoOoOoOoOO

No, the Vox populi does not have traitors in the upper command Victoria. Max, however, does love the idea of them purging ranks for nonexistent ones. Also, not exactly a fan of Max insinuating gay relationships as a shame point, but I don't always write characters that do everything I would.

Timeline-wise this probably broadcasts right around when the negotiations fail.
 
Calling attention to this.
There may well be foreign cadres already present in Victoria. Blackwell can presumably pay whatever the current version of Wagner Group is moneys to send over mercenaries military advisors and trainers, even if Alexander refuses to raise a finger.

Eeep.

Rip the guts out of New York State's infrastructure before we leave?
Settle down and wage air raids and infantry strikes against the power grid, gasoline pipelines, fuel depots, port facilities,...everything we can comfortably reach from the New York State border. Attempt to receive any abductees and slaves we can reach.

Then permanently deny them access to the economy of the upper three or four lakes, which will put a permanent crimp in their post-civil war economy. New York State accounts for anywhere between 25-50% of Victoria's habitable territory, being the combined size of RI,CT,MA,NH and VA, with excess to spare. A significant portion of both their population, industry and farmland is here.

This, our goal is a treaty, but costing them multiple ap to recover is a nice secondary prize.
 
If all goes well in our favor, do we keep these villages, or do we have to return them to Vicks in the Peace Treaty?

And in case of latter, can we relocate the people to our side of the border?
You're not annexing or even occupying them. Setting up supply depots, with their permission, but ultimately just passing through.
@PoptartProdigy Could we have an option to offer the People in the territory we just took who welcomed us an opportunity to evacuate into the commonwealth?

I ask because eventually we will either retreat peacefully or be forced to retreat due to counter attacks from Victorian forces. And since the people in the area welcomed us we might want to offer them the opportunity while it exists.
Burns refuses outright to let the locals know that the Commonwealth's stay will be temporary on grounds of operational security and says his replacement can do it, if refusal is unacceptable in this case. He is willing to conduct civilian evacuations once the Army is in control of the area, but only to the rear areas away from combat. At this point, it would be a bad move, in terms of PR, to start removing Victorian civilians. There's no way that doesn't look like kidnapping. Once a peace treaty has been signed, he'll be thrilled to coordinate refugees.
I am imagining a concept album about the rise of the Commonwealth in the style of Carolus Rex.

Victoria's Fall
Track 1: 40 Years In the Desert

- Anthem to Ron Burns and the Devils Brigade's time surviving post fall America.
- Mainly focused on the struggle to keep together rather than any particular battle.
- Includes guest vocals by the lead singer of The Devil's Midwives, a relatively unknown band that had already made a concept album about Ron Burns.
Track 2: Scatter/Shatter the Swastika
- Anthem to Sara Johnson and Sara Goldblum vs the Wisconsin neo-nazis.
- Thrash/Power metal hybrid.
- Chorus is a goddamn ear worm, particularly given that is a duet between high and harsh vocals.
-- Hmm hmm hmm scatter shatter the swastika hmm hmm hmm.
Track 3: Keep the Best, Throw Out the Rest
- About the Chicago Constitutional convention.
- Shockingly popular, no one expected a song about a political convention to be just that catchy.
- Also shockingly historically accurate and informative. The song is a very good primer on the politics of the early 2070s.
-- There is one particular verse where they took some liberties (massaging a quote by Sara Johnson)/made a mistake (attributed it to Sara Goldblum). That verse happens to the catchiest part of the song, and has been used as the basis of trick questions on many a history/social studies quiz.
Track 4: Worms and Winter
- About the early troubles of the Commonwealth, in particular the first winter and the traitor.
- More than a little unkind to Chicagoland's neighbors for price gouging the young nation.
- Treats the assassin and Sperling pretty interchangeably.
- hmm hmm enemies within, thieves all around, the world itself against them hmm hmm hmm.
Track 5: Two Cities of Steel
- Anthem for Detroit and Toledo.
- Uses Toledeo->Toledo Steel->sword steel->metaphor for Toledo's martial tradition.
- Detroit gets an industrial steel metaphor.
Track 6: Storm of the Inland Sea
- Anthem for the Commonwealth navy, sung from a (groundbound) Victorian perspective.
- References the Buffalo raid, the shelling of the advance on the Raisin line, and the bombardment of the islands.
- The Victorian Navy never even gets mentioned.
- hmm hmm Surely the skies will save us... then from INLAND SEA they came, death on the wave, fire and fury from the HEAVENS hmm hmm hmm.
Track 7: Broken on the Beaches
- About the Leamington landing/Eastern offensive and the destruction of Moses division, again from a Victorian perspective.
- hmm hmm then THE DEVILS CAME to do god's will, sent us to heaven hmm hmm hmm
Track 8: Quality of Mercy
- Final song from Victorian perspective, about troops surrendering and being shocked at, y'know, not being subjected to war crimes.
Track 9: We Have Seen the Enemy
- Anthem for Liberator Division
Track 10: Pride In the Skies
- Anthem for the Commonwealth Airforce.
- Also an anthem for Commonwealth LGBT.
-- Band's lead vocalists are gay and bisexual, and they clearly idolize Jeremy Torres.
I love everything about this.
@PoptartProdigy - please tell me have people recording this absolute curbstomp. This is golden propaganda in the making! Gotta play up the Not!Normandy theme for all it's worth!
Oh, definitely.
This is interesting. I am a northeast Ohioan myself, and grew up near the lakes. I would be in my 80s by this era, and would be one of (I am sure there are others) the oldest surviving millenials in Ohio if I last that long.

Does Victoria control Northeast Ohio?

Also, Zanesvile Ohio, which is much further south, has a sizable militia that would probably be growing bigger in this particular world.
Control, no. Heavily influence, absolutely.
Vox Populi Breaking Update- Civil War

Ladies, gentlemen, awesome people of all types. This is a breaking update.

First off, don't panic. No raids are being conducted in upper Ontario.

Oh, Max reporting here, by the way.

Now, as you all know, Victoria has been having its own little football game between the CMC and loyalist forces. Though details are challenging to determine, there is a fierce rivalry between head coaches, Blackwell, and...(sound of paper rustling). Jesus Christ.

That wasn't a curse, to clarify, the official highest general of the CMC is Jesus, who will take command on the last day to purge the world. I want to emphasize that, again, I am not making this up. This is in their own books. Please don't ask how we got those books, we won't tell you. I can say that the entire CMC upper command is utterly trustworthy, and none of them have turned, none all.

I will also remind people that there is no evidence that the rivalry comes from a bad breakup between Blackwell and one of the, shall we say, more earthly CMC generals. There has been no official response to rumors that their affair was broken up by the inquisitors, and a heartbroken Blackwell was forced to side against his lover.

I am, however, being reminded to focus on the point. This morning the 1st division of CMC crusaders, along with a conscripted population that is estimated between 15 and 25 thousand individuals, broke out of defensive lines around Buffalo, linking up with the 3rd. Reports are that they are attempting to rebuild the division that suffered from a terminal case of Commonwealth Burns. Commonwealth Burns is a terrible disease that has been ravaging Victorian aid workers in recent years. In fact, Detroit recently had a terrible infection of it, and reports from doctors are that at this point, it may not be removable. All Victorian are advised to stay away from Detroit.

Also, to get serious for a moment. If anyone in Victoria can hear this, keep the hell away from the CMC. I've looked at the book we have we have and... bluntly, half our experts are sure this has to the propaganda. This can't be their actual training, it's too ridiculous. But if it is, well, no wonder they need 15-25 thousand to reconstruct a 10 thousand man division, and your odds are probably better just trying to run.

But, veering from that, my college, Cera, will be taking over for reporting on what this means for the folks at home. Cera?

Thank you, Max. First, I want to emphasize that I am no expert in western or Victorian affairs. What is provided here is a quick analysis, and I urge listeners to pay attention to any follow-up reports, which will offer more careful analysis.

With the withdrawal of the CMC from Buffalo, the coast is entirely in the hands of Loyalist forces. While limited naval raids have been conducted in the upper Ontario region for supplies, it is not believed that such strikes will appear in the Erie region. Blackwell's negotiations are too delicate, though one or two may be done as a 'show of strength" to increase the perceived value to the Commonwealth of a naval withdrawal from Erie, though current analysis seems unlikely.

Resource raids in Ontario are expected to continue, though they are not likely to expand. They are believed to already be at their maximum remaining naval capacity, and with the CMC focusing on the interior, loyalist forces will likely put resources to other projects. Given troop quality and focus, limited raids may be fought off, however potential Victorian-retaliation post-war must be considered. Individual communities should leave it up to their own judgement.

The concentrated fighting around the interior is expected to increase internal displacement for Victorian civilians. However, the arduous journey to outside the borders means that an external refugee crisis is not likely to come full force until the winter months. Such a crisis will likely result in an influx to the wilds of Pennsylvania as the primary location, but all areas may experience such. On that, the Vox Populi would state our unequivocal support to those fleeing the horrors of Victoria, and encourage compassion. The people fleeing arn't the armies that ravaged us.

Within Victoria itself, this has resulted in the CMC being supplied and reinforced and ended hope of a quick victory for Blackwell against a divided opponent. Expect this war to drag on, though current analysis does not favor the CMC without a decapitation strike against Blackwell. Further information is limited, and speculation as to the long-term effect of the protracted militia's are still being debated.

Finally, this is almost certainly will affect the Commonwealth-Victoria negotiations. With such a changeup, the Commonwealth no longer needs to fight through the CMC to threaten Blackwell's directly. A strike against Buffalo threatens his forces. Additionally, said treaty must be maintained until the CMC is defeated. So far no official announcements have taken place, but unofficial ones indicate a breakdown of negotiations.


OoOoOoOoOO

No, the Vox populi does not have traitors in the upper command Victoria. Max, however, does love the idea of them purging ranks for nonexistent ones. Also, not exactly a fan of Max insinuating gay relationships as a shame point, but I don't always write characters that do everything I would.

Timeline-wise this probably broadcasts right around when the negotiations fail.
Canon!

Also folks, please link any omakes you've posted and I haven't acknowledged. Burnout was fierce, and I missed a lot.
 
@PoptartProdigy I don't know if these count as omakes per say, but I've designed a few maps that may be of use. I was also curious how to canon my interpretations are and if you had any corrections that you would recommend.

I kind of have the end goal of making maps that are canonized, so any help is appreciated.

The first is a regional map of the Great Lakes: Regional map

The second is a global map that takes more creative liberties: World map
 
I'll be honest, y'all sending the Big Red One was massive overkill. And, of course, a big part of the ease of this is that the Loyalists just did not roll well enough to figure out that the Canal was your objective -- because you scouted all along the eastern shore of Lake Erie. So they never concentrated forces here, thus robbing them of their only advantage aside from fortifications. The initial landing will succeed.
My bet would be on Alexander looking at the situation, concluding that realistically the Commonwealth can't sustain continuous air operations even if they can stage a single air-raid, and continuing to ignore the situation. But, well, low-order probability of him ordering a bigger response than he would have ordered anyway. So yeah.
Do remember this:
  • 2034: New York sees the light and secedes as well, joining the Confederation! They let the corrupt city of New York go, however, giving it to Puerto Rico -- trash to trash, after all.
    • To refocus the population on external troubles, the reactionaries push for the Confederation to annex New York. Given the ongoing chaos and now-open Russian assistance, the state is incapable of offering meaningful resistance. "Father," Dimitri promptly nearly chokes the leadership with their leash, informing them that they can in no way handle absorbing New York City. (Also, the Tsar instructed that it remain free from the increasingly-unpredictable reactionaries in the Confederation, as New York is for various reasons of international interest and its annexation by glorified terrorists would prompt a massive international response.) They do give NYC to Puerto Rico; Puerto Rico immediately says, "no thanks, we can't administrate that from all the way over here," the City itself goes, "also, you never actually set foot in this city and thus can get fucked," and the Free City of New York is born.
  • 2035: The World Islamic Council (which totally exists, and effortlessly spans all intra-Islamic divides, no less!) funds a black Muslim uprising in Boston! Moved by the plight of their fellow Christians, the Confederation moves to intervene, only to find that the UN has sold out Boston! Muslim nations invade the city under the pretext of restoring order, and the Confederation bravely drives them out. Upon victory, they find that the vile Muslims have been forcing Christians into slavery. The Confederation bargains their prisoners of war for the slaves back, but swiftly discover that the Muslim bastards have infected the slaves with the plagues! The NC sternly refuses to take back any more slaves, and furthermore infect their prisoners of war before releasing them home as a means of revenge. Millions die. Massachusetts joins the Confederation.
    • Boston collapses into riots as the Union burns down around them. Despite the concerns of the holdovers from the more moderate old state governments and, "Father," Dimitri's stern warnings not to overreach, the reactionaries use their control over the military to launch an invasion under the pretext of restoring order, presenting the operation to their allies as a fait accompli. Resistance is either too disorganized to be effective or actively joins with the NC out of hope that they can stop the madness. Certain Muslim-majority nations do have personnel in Boston when the Confederation forces arrive. This is a part of a larger international humanitarian force sent by the UN. Confederation forces capture the aid workers, promptly releasing them to avoid international outcry. They do infect those heading back to the Middle East with the southern plagues; Rumford is indeed a monstrous asshole and considers this flavor of genocide to be a moral imperative. Nothing can be proven, though. The power play is a success, and the reactionaries successfully push to annex Massachusetts.
Blackwell is allegedly a student of military history, and is senior enough to be keenly aware of his own nation's history.
And how momentum has a power of it's own.
A rout here is going to concern him even more than a simple defeat.

I do expect Alexei is going to let things play out further.
Given that his original plans for Victoria didn't actually include New York State, dude probably considers it ultimately expendable, in the pursuit of purging Victoria of it's more dogmatic cosplayers and into a more pliable tool.

Nevertheless, there probably is a division of VDV on 24 hour alert for airlift into Augusta or Boston, and a couple squadrons of late generation Felons and Fullbacks on standby. Because he's also aware of the danger of events snowballing.
All of which is a caution against overreach.
 
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