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To add to this.

I don't think we should think about the treaty as "peace at any cost".

We start with 65 DC worth of demands. For free. Sure most of the plans offer concessions for more stuff, but you could literally write a plan that offers nothin, demands reparations, opens the Seaway(to everyone), makes Victoria accept war-guilt, and takes the liberty bell and get it to accept it. There are no options for concessions that hurt us or even require us to lift a finger aside from transporting some troops.

I completely agree with this.

of course there are no concessions that hurt us!

ALL of them came from our proposals! I think it's telling that there's not even ONE concession that Victoria actually proposed itself.

If we're objective we have to admit that every possible treaty is massively in our favour, and massively better FOR US than going with no treaty.

of course the low roll is a bit annoying (especially cause of that 100..), but we can't really complain too much.

[x] Total Industry MK7 DC 30
 
[X] Commonwealth Hardball: You expected to compromise, but you are the victors, here, and Victoria will not be permitted to dictate terms in any sense.

[X] This Or No Deal: You offered the peace you are willing to accept. If Victoria is unwilling to take that peace, then they will not have peace
 
In 1945, the Allies were at the gates of Berlin. Right now, the Commonwealth hasn't put a single soldier on Victorian soil.
In 1918 the Entente hadn't put a single soldier on German soil either. Everyone still knew who had won, who had lost, and who no longer had an organized army with which to contest things.

In 1945 there was more of the Wermacht left in the field than the Victorians have at all right now. They knew they were beaten, and that's without Germany looking down the barrel of a civil war next.
I mean, it's true that Victoria can't prosectue a war with us. But on the flip side, we also can't prosecute a war with them. Our economy just isn't strong enough and the army isn't prepared for it.
They don't know that. For all they know, the Big Red One could be driving on Portland or Augusta next week.
If negotiations drag on too long, Victoria might realize that.
And if we fold to their first counterproposal, they'll figure that out even faster.

The Victorians are beaten. They are frightened of facing both us and the Crusaders in the field right now. They are far, far more desperate to conclude a peace treaty with us than we should be with them. We have all the leverage, and we should be acting like it. Not like we are the desperate ones. That Victoria will almost certainly repudiate the treaty as soon as they are able should not be taken as a reason to rush into making one. Every soldier they Victorians have to keep on a garrison meant to keep us away is one they can't use to win their civil war. No treaty at all is better for the long term situation than a halfway one that gets us a year or two of middling benefits and lets Victoria recover its feet before going right back to being the evil bastards we know they will.
 
And if we fold to their first counterproposal, they'll figure that out even faster.

The Victorians are beaten. They are frightened of facing both us and the Crusaders in the field right now. They are far, far more desperate to conclude a peace treaty with us than we should be with them. We have all the leverage, and we should be acting like it. Not like we are the desperate ones. That Victoria will almost certainly repudiate the treaty as soon as they are able should not be taken as a reason to rush into making one. Every soldier they Victorians have to keep on a garrison meant to keep us away is one they can't use to win their civil war. No treaty at all is better for the long term situation than a halfway one that gets us a year or two of middling benefits and lets Victoria recover its feet before going right back to being the evil bastards we know they will.
How is the current treaty at all middling benefits? It takes almost all of the economic options and provides us massive gains. Also, this is not the first counteroffer, this is the abstracted version of literal months of negotiations that are coming to this treaty.
 
The Victorians are beaten. They are frightened of facing both us and the Crusaders in the field right now. They are far, far more desperate to conclude a peace treaty with us than we should be with them. We have all the leverage, and we should be acting like it. Not like we are the desperate ones. That Victoria will almost certainly repudiate the treaty as soon as they are able should not be taken as a reason to rush into making one. Every soldier they Victorians have to keep on a garrison meant to keep us away is one they can't use to win their civil war. No treaty at all is better for the long term situation than a halfway one that gets us a year or two of middling benefits and lets Victoria recover its feet before going right back to being the evil bastards we know they will.

But they really don't have to divert troops to garrison against us. The only point where we can invade is from the west, and Buffaloe is held by the CMC, so these points would already be garissoned.

From my perspective, assuming we want to get our war on. We could go for no treaty, or we could go for this.

Plan: Harsh measures
-[ ] War Reparations Clause, Punitive: (+10)
-[ ] War Reparations Clause, Artifacts: (+5)
-[ ] Penal Labor Clause: (+20)
-[ ] Geneva Conventions Clause: (+20)
-[ ] Foreign Aid Clause: (+15)
-[ ] Prisoners of War Clause, Delayed: (-10)
-[ ] War Guild Clause (+5)

That's a valid treaty and includes clauses that explicitly " Massively debuff Victorian recovery efforts", " Momentarily send the Victorian economy into a tailspin ", " it would be the exact opposite of what they need, in the middle of a brutal civil war " and " greatly weakening Victoria's grip on the continent ", with no concessions on our part. (Granted we give the prisoners back, but we can delay that till post-civil war). All of which they are operating under during the war.

This treaty will almost guarantee that Victoria breaks it the moment the civil war ends, which gives us just enough time (if we ignore expansion and economic efforts) to replenish our ammo, build a logistical fleet, and hit them as they are still recovering. Comparatively, we can't really do anything to them without a treaty this early, taking the Canal is explicitly a bluff. Our only option to do real damage is to help the CMC, and I'd rather not.

Like, there seems to be this idea that as long as we are at war we can massively debuff them, and I'm just not seeing it. Our advisors recommended peace 3 to 2, with one neutral.

Also, as pointed out, I would hardly call these options middling.

Edit: To put this in perspective, the original thing we wanted out of the peace-talks was seaway access. That was really the only carrot we were really talking about. There was some talk of war brides prisoner exchanges. Multiple people (myself included) expressed that there was no way we could get reparations.

The current top plan contains all of those. It also makes Erie ours, so we can restart the war the moment they step off it, expands the Seaway to the entire region, drains their people while boosting ours, and takes the Liberty Bell. This is literally better than my wildest expectations going into this. Yes, the initial options, and later realizing a 90DC plan was optimal made me dream of more, but like, I don't think these are remotely middling benefits.
 
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Simplifying things down Victoria's treaties can be divided into
I spent a couple hours writing up a comprehensive reply.
But then I lost motivation. So I'll spare you.

Ugh. If only the roll wasn't so abysmal. Annulment is a very important clause. Dropping the Seaway from General to Commonwealth would be worth it if we could get Annulment in exchange.
Seaway Commonwealth can be mitigated by arranging tariff-free trade with all those states.
Annulment? Not so much.
So yes, you are right.
In 1918 the Entente hadn't put a single soldier on German soil either. Everyone still knew who had won, who had lost, and who no longer had an organized army with which to contest things.
In 1918 the United States had only been in the war for about 18 months, and it's full force was just beginning to come to bear.
Not to mention that the Heer were significantly more rational than the Vics were.
They don't know that. For all they know, the Big Red One could be driving on Portland or Augusta next week.
Do recall that Victoria is not acting in a vacuum, and this is not the 19th century. Alexander can stick his oar in anytime.
Even with Alexander choosing to sit on his hands for the meantime? A sympathetic Russian intelligence officer who has been hosted gratis at one of their sex tourism camps once too many times can slip them a classified intelligence assessment of the Commonwealth's ability to project force.

Or Blackwell could get a clue and pay for commercial satellite imagery of the Commonwealth and it's army deployment from a Russian or Russosphere company; you can buy satellite imagery with a resolution of 30cm today.
eos.com

Spatial Resolution In Remote Sensing: Which One To Choose?

There are low, medium, and high spatial resolutions for remote sensing. Each of these spatial resolutions is appropriate for its own set of tasks.
 
I'm bummed that we're missing an opportunity for a major synergy with seaway general and the annulment clause. Those two combined would be immensely powerful in getting the rest of the nation back on its feet, not to mention drastically reduce the diplomatic AP of getting us a second access point to international markets.
 
I'm bummed that we're missing an opportunity for a major synergy with seaway general and the annulment clause. Those two combined would be immensely powerful in getting the rest of the nation back on its feet, not to mention drastically reduce the diplomatic AP of getting us a second access point to international markets.
But, with free migration and general access we have the ability to pull massive numbers of people to us, debuff the Vic economy, and to give us a lot more long term AP. While at the same time allowing free movement in Victoria and breaking 40 years of propaganda.
 
AP that we will then need to spend on opening the Mississippi to get access to internal markets once Victoria does their sudden but inevitable betrayal, or before.

Free migration just allows Vick civvies to flee the fighting
 
Canon Omake: Vox Populi Dispatches - Dispatches from the Midwest Conference
Vox Populi Dispatches- Dispatches from the Midwest Conference

Nov-23

Welcome everyone, it is 7 pm Vox Populi Radio Evening Dispatch. Williams is still within New York, and we are continuing our efforts to introduce other Vox Populi Broadcasters and reporters. I am Cera Anderson, I previously worked with the Chicago Daily for 3 years and will continue to publish articles there. Some of you may recognize the dispatch I did on the challenges the Army was facing in a post-victory world.

Post-Victory the Commonwealth has been aggressively pursuing peace as enthusiastically as it pursed its defense of Detroit. Among it's projects are the integration of both Detroit and Toledo, the Great-Lakes conference, outreach to both former US territories and foreign contacts. The Johnston administration has even taken the controversial step of negotiating with Victoria, a move that has sent ripples throughout the Commonwealth and the cities that are soon to join.

This heavy diplomatic offense has not been without issues. As one anonymous official explained, "We've always relied on our wealth to be able to help smooth things over, buying parts or expertise, but diplomats aren't like steel for farming equipment or bribes for bases, they take time to train and you can't just buy someone else's."

According to sources, the Department of State has been stretched to its limit and beyond, with those inside working overtime and other departments, such as Technological Recovery, being leaned on to complete non-vital work. Many privately speculate that had the Detroit and Toledo integration not gone so well, it would have been impossible. As is the Commonwealth Department of State is already heavily leaning on Detroit's Diplomatic corps to help bolster their own ranks, well before the official integration.

Even with those advantages, this has resulted in prioritization, a move that worries some. Said, one anonymous official. "The big prestige posting is Victoria. Go see New York, lord it over the Victorian's, and the upper Administration is drooling at the Seaway. Anyone with enough clout is there, though a few of the senior staff had to stay back for foreign calling. If you are skilled but can't get Victoria you want to take off to the former US. If you can get us on friend terms with large polity, or help secure Mississippi access, well that could make one's career. But, the local conference? Not a lot of opportunity for career-making there, and most people figure between Chicago, Detroit, and Toledo, what we say goes.

Those who have chosen to focus on the conference worry that it may end up lacking in qualified staff. While few doubt the Commonwealth will, ultimately be able to dictate terms as it sees fit, such a move would not mend the fences that the Johnston Administration has set as the ultimate goal of the conference. And there are fears long-term resentment would require an already stretched Commonwealth to maintain constant forces at home, making it's Mississippi and revivalist plans more difficult, and risking potential allies available for more powerful enemies.

While the administration is looking to pursue a reconciliation strategy, this may prove difficult, as the Great Lakes are made up of dozens of polities, many of whom are actively hostile to each other. While Vox Populi reports have uncovered evidence that some of these were a result of Victoria encouragement, only a few can be provably demonstrated, if the Commonwealth wants to convince the Great Lakes that all the anonymity was purely a result of Victoria, it will have a challenge ahead of it. Many remain optimistic, however, pointing to Toledo and Detroit.

More difficult may be selling this reconciliation strategy to voters back home. The foundational crisis of the Commonwealth, and the one that, until the victory over Victoria, the Johnston Administration most drew its authority from, was the near-famine following the initial founding. A program of technological and industrial focus on farming helped end the crisis within 6 months, those first 6 months lead to near-starvation. This was only staved off by the purchase of massive food imports for great lakes communities.

Such purchases were not uncontroversial as the prices were at a heavy mark-up from typical food imports along the great lakes. This has generated heavy resentment from many in the Commonwealth, a resentment that was further fueled by embargo in the wake of the war. Many in the Commonwealth do not feel kindly to their neighbors, as I found when asking for opinions on the street.

[Recording plays, multiple voices]

"Buncha cowards."

"They tried to starve us twice."

"I don't think about them much, but they were awful to Burns. Anyone who is an enemy of Burns is no friend of mine."

"Don't care much one way or the other. We are reforming the US, and they can get with the program or watch as we build something beautiful without them."

"At this point, I say let's just focus on the Mississippi and Erie, they like us."

[Recording ends]

This leaves many officials worried that this will push towards a harsher stance in the conference or risk a domestic backlash. Still, others remain optimistic, arguing that while the resentment is widespread, it is shallow, must people be far more focused on the Commonwealth development or Victoria. A few years of normalization should help heal any rifts, and domestic politics will be far more dominated by the Administration's ability to keep people fed and the new voting blocs of immigrants, Detroit and Toledo than resentment over light treaties.

Others are not so optimistic.

"I've been part of the merchant marine, so I was helping to ship the food during the famine, and shipping to the troops during the war. People say it's like Toledo, right? At least these guys never actually let troops in, right? But it isn't. Sure, Toledo let Victorian's base in them, but it wasn't like it was personal. Don't know about you, but spite's a powerful thing and something about the way they just looked so happy to put the boot in us. It's pretty enraging you know? Plus, Toledo went and fought and died. They didn't just leave us to handle the Victorian army and then expect us to be okay with going back like nothing happened."

Still, many officials are hoping that the conference will be able to smooth feelings, both foreign and domestic, but are worried about their ability to do so with limited staff. Nor are the Commonwealth the only participants who have set their hopes on the conference. Join us tomorrow for a selection of reports on those attending. The eager, the hopeful, the reluctant, and the resentful.

This is Cera Anderson Vox Populi Radio, signing off.

---------------------------------

IMPORTANT: If this work gets canonized, please do not bring this us during the Conference voting as an argument for why we "need" a harsh treaty. As pointed out in the omake itself, there are a lot of other considerations that mean that means fears of a domestic backlash may be overthrown. Nor should it be taken as some indication we have a malus for negotiation, the diplomats here are more untested, but that doesn't mean bad.

Less Important but potentially interesting: This Omake was inspired by three things. First, the difference between the abstract game mechanics and the ground level thought. We have merchants, which makes us rich, and gives us free ap. In-universe, this can be thought of as buying shit when we need to focus. However, you can't really buy diplomats, and sure, some actions can be abstracted as bribery (see basing right turn 3), but none of the turn 4 ones really can, so the thought of the overworked State department stuck in my mind.

The second is the dissidence between in-universe and out-of-universe feelings. For the questors, the neighbor's resentment is something we voted for. It's a problem we took the points for, and as such merely the consequences of our choices, to be dealt with pragmatically. But in-universe, it isn't, and while the later actions can point to Burns not talking to them, the first time, the overcharging for famine food, wasn't. This in-universe anger has been reflected in the way poptart writes them, especially with the buy food option on turn 1. This dissidence, between the questor's view of this as a problem we took that should be solved pragmatically, and the real (and not unjustified) in-universe anger intrigued me.

The final is that I wanted to write an article that was kinda… bad for the Commonwealth. We want this conference to go smooth, and reminding the other polity how much resentment there is and that we aren't sending out best, is rather inconvenient for us. Not devastating, but an article that, were we willing and able to censor, we would have. Williams has expressed doubts in articles before, but most of them have been giving a useful view of the war that repeatedly reminds people that Victoria is terrible, the Commonwealth wasn't acting like monsters, and Detroit still lives. By and large, they were good for us. The Vox Populi aren't out to shill us, and that means a lot of times they act similarly to us, but it's not 100%.

Also, welcome Cera join our cast of Commonwealth native whose names are pronounced the same way. Cera is trying to be a professional in a group that includes Max. Pity her.

Also if you like my writing, and like quests about fighting evil empires run by guys named Alexander, you may want to try out my quest. Crimson Wired Metamorphic I just updated.
 
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In 1918 the Entente hadn't put a single soldier on German soil either. Everyone still knew who had won, who had lost, and who no longer had an organized army with which to contest things.

In 1945 there was more of the Wermacht left in the field than the Victorians have at all right now. They knew they were beaten, and that's without Germany looking down the barrel of a civil war next.
They don't know that. For all they know, the Big Red One could be driving on Portland or Augusta next week.
And if we fold to their first counterproposal, they'll figure that out even faster.

The Victorians are beaten. They are frightened of facing both us and the Crusaders in the field right now. They are far, far more desperate to conclude a peace treaty with us than we should be with them. We have all the leverage, and we should be acting like it. Not like we are the desperate ones. That Victoria will almost certainly repudiate the treaty as soon as they are able should not be taken as a reason to rush into making one. Every soldier they Victorians have to keep on a garrison meant to keep us away is one they can't use to win their civil war. No treaty at all is better for the long term situation than a halfway one that gets us a year or two of middling benefits and lets Victoria recover its feet before going right back to being the evil bastards we know they will.
Your conclusions about this peace treaty directly contradict our knowledge of how these negotiations work, and also of how a war would most likely proceed if we don't get the treaty. Specifically, if we don't "fold to their first counterproposal", we don't get another one, and if the war continues, then our best-case scenario for an independent operation is to hold a not-particularly-valuable stretch of land for a month, and if Victoria doesn't fold in that one month, then they realize we can't keep fighting at all and then the whole peace is off.
 
also this ISN'T their first counterproposal. That's mechanics. Narratively speaking this is THE END RESULT of the negotiation, after MANY proposals and counterproposals were rejected and modified
 
[X] Commonwealth Hardball: You expected to compromise, but you are the victors, here, and Victoria will not be permitted to dictate terms in any sense.
 
[X] Commonwealth Hardball: You expected to compromise, but you are the victors, here, and Victoria will not be permitted to dictate terms in any sense.
 
For those not so fond of the immediate troop return of Commonwealth Hardball, I present...

[ ] Commonwealth Murderball (DC 55)
-[ ] War Reparations Clause, Acquisitive: +5
-[ ] Artifact Reclamation Clause +5
-[ ] Militia Clause -5
-[ ] Prisoners of War Clause, Delayed -10
-[ ] War Brides Clause, Exchange +15
-[ ] Johnson Doctrine Clause: +10
-[ ] Free Migration Clause +30
-[ ] Annulment Clause +25
-[ ] Hostile Neutrality Clause -15
-[ ] Seaway Clause, General: +50
-[ ] Lakes Access Clause: -20

Removes War Guilt so delaying Prisoners of War only adds 5 to dc
Adhoc vote count started by Rivenscryr on Nov 11, 2019 at 10:48 AM, finished with 95 posts and 51 votes.
 
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We hold vast majority of the cards here. And our people are pissed off at Vickies enough that war exhaustion is not going to be a factor for a while.

[X] Commonwealth Hardball: You expected to compromise, but you are the victors, here, and Victoria will not be permitted to dictate terms in any sense. Reroll for, "Commonwealth Hardball," at DC 50.

[X] This Or No Deal: You offered the peace you are willing to accept. If Victoria is unwilling to take that peace, then they will not have peace
 
We hold vast majority of the cards here. And our people are pissed off at Vickies enough that war exhaustion is not going to be a factor for a while.
Why gamble it all for a 1/6 in terms of points better peace, that also includes giving back the Vics their prisoners immediately, making us get an even smaller net benefit from it, due to the civil war running shorter.

Also in terms of continuing the war its explicitly confirmed that we only have one month of offensive operations and that if we lose those, there will be no peace in our favor at all, just a Victorian imposed a ceasefire.
 
In 1918 the Entente hadn't put a single soldier on German soil either. Everyone still knew who had won, who had lost, and who no longer had an organized army with which to contest things.

In 1945 there was more of the Wermacht left in the field than the Victorians have at all right now. They knew they were beaten, and that's without Germany looking down the barrel of a civil war next.
The Entente had the strongest war machine in history (up until that point, at least) behind them. The Allied War machine is the single strongest engine of destruction the world has ever seen. Both of those alliances could and did occupy their enemies for extended periods of time. We don't have that ability. Victoria is weaker than Germany ever was, but we are also infinitely weaker than the Allies or Entente ever were. Neither of us can win an offensive war right now. That's just not in the cards.

They don't know that. For all they know, the Big Red One could be driving on Portland or Augusta next week.
And if we fold to their first counterproposal, they'll figure that out even faster.
They don't know right now, but they might later. And once they figure it out, there's no going back. We've got a good position now, so why risk it?

If they do realize we've been bluffing after they sign the treaty, it doesn't matter. They've already signed the dotted line. The worst case is that they immediately renege, and even then the annulment clause has already taken a hammer to their soft power. But that's unlikely. We still have their soldiers, which they apparently are quite desperate for. So even with the treaty signed, we still have leverage against the Victorians, at least until the civil war ends. And once it does end, they still need to patch up.

The Victorians are beaten. They are frightened of facing both us and the Crusaders in the field right now. They are far, far more desperate to conclude a peace treaty with us than we should be with them. We have all the leverage, and we should be acting like it. Not like we are the desperate ones. That Victoria will almost certainly repudiate the treaty as soon as they are able should not be taken as a reason to rush into making one. Every soldier they Victorians have to keep on a garrison meant to keep us away is one they can't use to win their civil war. No treaty at all is better for the long term situation than a halfway one that gets us a year or two of middling benefits and lets Victoria recover its feet before going right back to being the evil bastards we know they will.
This isn't just giving Victoria a chance to recover. It's giving us a chance to recover too, and forcing Victoria to help, including making Victoria directly subsidize us with war reparations. By basically any metric, this is a comically unequal treaty. We give up what amounts to sweet fuck-all, and in return the Victorians fork over cash, rip up their treaties, return prisoners, and open their borders.
 
Why gamble it all for a 1/6 in terms of points better peace, that also includes giving back the Vics their prisoners immediately, making us get an even smaller net benefit from it, due to the civil war running shorter.

Also in terms of continuing the war its explicitly confirmed that we only have one month of offensive operations and that if we lose those, there will be no peace in our favor at all, just a Victorian imposed a ceasefire.
Because even if we lose, war is preferable.
It is better to keep them bleeding than to give them enough tools to rebuild faster than we will. With Russian assistance, they are liable to be catching up alarmingly fast anyway. I do not trust in our ability to outgrow a polity which is sponsored, openly, by superpower, without a superpower sugar daddy of our own.
So I think we must cripple Victorians further, and consider risks of accepting peace which does not go far enough in doing that unacceptable risk.
 
Because even if we lose, war is preferable.
It is better to keep them bleeding than to give them enough tools to rebuild faster than we will. With Russian assistance, they are liable to be catching up alarmingly fast anyway. I do not trust in our ability to outgrow a polity which is sponsored, openly, by superpower, without a superpower sugar daddy of our own.
So I think we must cripple Victorians further, and consider risks of accepting peace which does not go far enough in doing that unacceptable risk.
And, what stops them from getting Russian assistance while we are fully cut off from any foreign aid at all? In fact, them being at war with a so-far un-recognized state just means the assistance pipeline would be even greater.

We need foreign assistance to be competitive, and compared to the Vics we have the advantage of population, education, and a sensible government system to take advantage of it.
 
And, what stops them from getting Russian assistance while we are fully cut off from any foreign aid at all? In fact, them being at war with a so-far un-recognized state just means the assistance pipeline would be even greater.

We need foreign assistance to be competitive, and compared to the Vics we have the advantage of population, education, and a sensible government system to take advantage of it.
It is still a gamble on our start plus couple years of seaway foreign aid outpacing Russians sending old Cold War equipment to their puppet.

Assuming that we can win this race without even having a proper coal/steel industry is rather optimistic.

And anything which would rival the help Russians will send to their puppet likely will come with the appropriate price tag.

Our best bet is prolonging civil war then, Alexander seemed unwilling to send help before Blackwell cleaned up Victoria.
 
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