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[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
1. On the first point, I'll note that Russian murderers doing whatever they please to people that get their attention has been the default state of affairs in the backstory. A worst case scenario is one where the quest neither has its cake nor eats it too because the Russians decide to pull those stunts again while the quest doesn't have visibility to act as a barrier.
2. He's a dictator in a precarious spot with other fish to fry. You can either be beneath notice- and prey for Victorians- or have sufficient international recognition to make crushing you too painful to do directly, but being dangerous enough to notice and without international protection sounds like a TPK speedrun.
3. It's safe to say Alex is already looking at North America- and us in particular more than the NCR. Distraction under these circumstances is plausible.
Visibility is not sufficient protection. I can't emphasize that enough. It is undeniably useful, but visibility and popularity alone will not save us from Russia. Just because we have public opinion on our side, and just because other nations like us, does not mean that they will actually help us. Announcing that we have the Declaration does not actually get us formal or informal diplomatic protection. It might help us get that protection, but when we're dealing with a threat like Russian intervention we don't want to bank our future on a "might".

The main contention is that we were initially presented with effectively two options: either we announce that we have the DoI, or don't and keep it secret. Questers being questers, decided they wanted to try to have their cake and eat it two, and thus asked if we could tell our ally without telling the whole world. PoptartProdigy agreed that was a valid option. The thing to keep in mind about PoptartProdigy is that they don't offer trap options, but they are fully willing to let voter write-ins have worse results than any they would be willing to present themselves.

We know IC that the FCNY only survives by the grace and support of European powers. It is reasonable to surmise that one of the requirements of that support is that they liaise heavily with said powers, which implies that the European advisors will come with significant amounts of intelligence agents. Anything that we tell the FCNY is likely to be revealed to the Europeans. And in this setting, Russia is a hyperpower with a deeply capable and practiced intelligence agency. Even if they don't learn about the DoI directly from the FCNY, they will amost certainly learn it from on of the European intelligence agencies that they have infiltrated.

If we want to keep the DoI secret, we should vote to keep it secret. Not "I'll keep it secret by only telling my buddy".
This makes a lot of assumptions, to the point that it's basically just speculation.
 
Yes, we already have some Russian attention. And? Doesn't mean that attention can't get worse with that option, while the other says nothing about changing it.
As I understand it, the option doesn't say the Russian attention is getting worse, or that we get further Russian negative attention.
What it seems to say is that we get Russian and Russian client state attention, instead of Russian attention alone.
Not that avoiding further Russian attention would be worth passing this up, mind.

Am I getting this right, @PoptartProdigy ?
First, Russia doesn't even know we have the Declaration, so worrying about them destroying it strikes me as excessively paranoid. A hopeful rumor is not worth sending in a crack team of saboteurs to find and burn it.

Second, if Alexander sees us as a serious threat, he will crush us, PR backlash be damned. He's a dictator and he runs the world's only superpower; he can weather the outrage if he must. Notoriety and public opinion are a deterrent, not an actual shield, because the benefit of getting rid of a credible American successor state is probably going to outweigh whatever he has to pay for it in the court of public opinion.

Third, we need the prep time too, and trying for a distraction is an unreliable gambit. We might derail Alexander's plans, or we might draw Alexander's attention to North America at a bad time for the NCR.

Again, none of these benefits are compelling, because they're all a little vague and uncertain. When I compare that against the known danger of increased Russian (and Japanese) attention, I really don't think it's a contest.
-One, the options that suggest getting in contact have an unreasonable chance of intelligence leakage.
FCNY, whose survival relies on a lot of European support, does have incentive to share intel with their Euro allies. Which is not a bad thing per se, except that the Russian intelligence apparatus does attempt to penetrate both FCNY and Europe.

And Cali actually have a Russian presence on the ground.

-Two, this is not true. Alexander is very much the global hegemon, but there are multiple Great Powers in play.
PACS anchors the South Pacific, the EU exists and denies him control of much of the Balkans and Eastern Europe, and Unified China is right there on his eastern border, sitting right next to the base for the Russian Pacific Fleet.

Alexander has great but limited power, and has to prioritize.
He does not control Finland or Poland, much as he tried and invested effort into getting his hands on either nation. He doesnt control Turkey or Egypt either, despite the strategic nature of the waterways(Bosporus and Suez) both nations control. He has major influence on Panama, but no basing as far as we know.

Because Brazil/Chile/Argentina probably don't want him any closer than he already is.

-Our preptime is greatly enhanced by said Legitimacy gain.
We need a path down the Mississipi, remember?
Through the heart of America?
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

Sure, we're on Russia's List, but if we announce we have the DoI, Russia is more likely to expend significant effort on smacking us down. It's not a "are they our enemy or not" issue, it's a "how prominent an enemy are we" issue.
 
To be perfectly honest if FCNY leaks, it wouldn't be the worst outcome, and I'd still prefer it to public reveal. Even if both invite a Russian response, nature changes. @Simon_Jester has already talked about this some, but to add to it.

As long as the document is secret the threat to Russia is in its existence, which means the focus of its efforts will be on destroying the declaration to neutralize its potential. If they succeed we lose a potential bonus, but that's it.

By contrast, if we reveal it then the primary threat is us as a nation, and the legitimacy we already have. Yes they can blow it up, but the narrative of us showing it and getting it destroyed by Russia could just inspire more fight. By contrast, if they destroy it before we reveal, most of the nation is going to have a 'yeah sure you did' reaction. As such they will instead focus on sabotaging the nation, on ensuring that we die as a nation with assassinations, industrial sabotage, etc.

And to be honest, I'd rather have them focus on the document.
 
[X] Keep it secret, keep it safe. You're already enough of a target, as a Revivalist state. You don't need more reason for Alexander to put a kill order on you.
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
And I quote, bolding mine.
Last time we we describe as beginning to starve. But heck, we can actually ask questions, rather than engage in your war of speculations. @PoptartProdigy if we managed to fail in farming on both turn 5 and 6, would we be making food purchases on turn 6 or 7?
......
@PoptartProdigy, please clarify at your leisure.

Those rolls would have succeed on the farming, and it's budgeting 3 rolls, not 2. Also thanks once again for showing that your claims of "I wasn't treating your plan as starvation" were hollow.
-One, Farming Equipment Part 2 is DC 30.
Twin rolls of 22 and 12 would both have failed, barring some bonus I'm unaware of like from omake.

-I quite literally said that your plan for 1 AP would probably work. Especially if omake bonuses apply.
But that I'd probably rather have 2 AP just in case I was wrong.
Especially since extra successes aren't wasted.
 
[X] Make it known to the world that you possess the Declaration of Independence, and invite the Free City of New York to Chicago to examine and confirm the authenticity of the document, as well as discussion possible restoration efforts. +8 Legitimacy, massive opinion boost with FCNY, large opinion boost with most polities within the former borders of the United States, negative attention from Japan, Russia, and Russian client states.
 
I've said it before, but people have missed it, so temporary threadmark such that nobody misses it:

[ ] Secretly inform the New California Republic and the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation (as well as discussing possible restoration efforts) with a coordinated public reveal to occur on July 4th, 2076.

This is not a valid vote. You do not, at this time, have communications with the NCR that are both reliable and secure. They are not in a position to welcome your diplomats; the only reason they could fly out to talk to you for your initial deal was because they were officially there to scold you -- and at this point, Russia's clients have been ordered to go hands-off with you. You will need to invest actual AP in establishing a back channel to them in order to bring them into this; it's not something that you can do now. I'll give you an option next year if you opt to keep the Declaration secret, but for right now, this vote doesn't fly.
This is a more fair point,and one I'm willing to acknowledge this as something to consider. I did somewhat lose my temper over the "follow my plan or die" style arguing. I don't think that extra agriculture is vital, but yes it is ultimately a good thing and if we aren't swamped, not bad to go for. Though I would really like to start forging the sword since I'm worried the lessons will fade if we take to long on it.

Also, so we are making informed decisions.

@PoptartProdigy will Midwest Industrial Conference lower the dc of the current Infrastructure Project action available to us.?
Infrastructure is described as part of the three-year plan, and the MIC is described as lowering DCs for all parts of the three-year plan.
Last time we we describe as beginning to starve. But heck, we can actually ask questions, rather than engage in your war of speculations. @PoptartProdigy if we managed to fail in farming on both turn 5 and 6, would we be making food purchases on turn 6 or 7?
You could be making food purchases on those turns, or at least trying. I won't make you.
As I understand it, the option doesn't say the Russian attention is getting worse, or that we get further Russian negative attention.
What it seems to say is that we get Russian and Russian client state attention, instead of Russian attention alone.
Not that avoiding further Russian attention would be worth passing this up, mind.

Am I getting this right, @PoptartProdigy ?
If you publicly unveil that you hold the Declaration of Independence and reap the Legitimacy gains that ensue, you do in fact move up on Alexander's shit list. It moves you from, "Troublesome state that gave Victoria a lot of trouble," to, "the whole purpose of this exercise is to prevent somebody from reuniting the United States and these fuckers are flashing relics of the USA while expanding and integrating new territory."
 
Golly, this is honestly a really fun vote.

[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

[X] Make it known to the world that you possess the Declaration of Independence, and invite the Free City of New York to Chicago to examine and confirm the authenticity of the document, as well as discussion possible restoration efforts. +8 Legitimacy, massive opinion boost with FCNY, large opinion boost with most polities within the former borders of the United States, negative attention from Japan, Russia, and Russian client states.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[x] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

[X] Make it known to the world that you possess the Declaration of Independence, and invite the Free City of New York to Chicago to examine and confirm the authenticity of the document, as well as discussion possible restoration efforts. +8 Legitimacy, massive opinion boost with FCNY, large opinion boost with most polities within the former borders of the United States, negative attention from Japan, Russia, and Russian client states.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

Announcing it would be practically daring Russia to escalate. I'm sort of inclined to just hide it altogether, but letting it continue to degrade is unconscionable . So, middle road it is.
 
So yeah. GM has spoken. If we do publicly unveil we *will* move up in Alex's shitlist.

And in my opinion thus more likely to get hit with direct Russian action sooner. So, people, please reconsider the public option. We can and should reveal it when California revolts. But right now is not the right time.

Also, vote tally.
Adhoc vote count started by Crazy7s1 on Oct 10, 2019 at 1:11 PM, finished with 141 posts and 91 votes.
 
-One, the options that suggest getting in contact have an unreasonable chance of intelligence leakage.
FCNY, whose survival relies on a lot of European support, does have incentive to share intel with their Euro allies. Which is not a bad thing per se, except that the Russian intelligence apparatus does attempt to penetrate both FCNY and Europe.

And Cali actually have a Russian presence on the ground.

-Two, this is not true. Alexander is very much the global hegemon, but there are multiple Great Powers in play.
PACS anchors the South Pacific, the EU exists and denies him control of much of the Balkans and Eastern Europe, and Unified China is right there on his eastern border, sitting right next to the base for the Russian Pacific Fleet.

Alexander has great but limited power, and has to prioritize.
He does not control Finland or Poland, much as he tried and invested effort into getting his hands on either nation. He doesnt control Turkey or Egypt either, despite the strategic nature of the waterways(Bosporus and Suez) both nations control. He has major influence on Panama, but no basing as far as we know.

Because Brazil/Chile/Argentina probably don't want him any closer than he already is.

-Our preptime is greatly enhanced by said Legitimacy gain.
We need a path down the Mississipi, remember?
Through the heart of America?
I am aware Alexander has to prioritize. What I'm arguing is that if we move too aggressively, he will prioritize us. Sure, China or someone else is probably going to make a move while he's distracted, and that'll be painful for him, but if he decides it's worth it, we're boned.

And I also completely agree that the path down the Mississippi is something we could use Legitimacy for, and so we should probably announce we have the Declaration before trying to push south. But we're not going to be trying to move southwards in the immediate future, so that's not a reason to make our move now. Again, I am not disputing we should announce that we have the Declaration in the near future. I am simply saying that this is not a good time.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Make it known to the world that you possess the Declaration of Independence, and invite the Free City of New York to Chicago to examine and confirm the authenticity of the document, as well as discussion possible restoration efforts. +8 Legitimacy, massive opinion boost with FCNY, large opinion boost with most polities within the former borders of the United States, negative attention from Japan, Russia, and Russian client states.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it secret, keep it safe. You're already enough of a target, as a Revivalist state. You don't need more reason for Alexander to put a kill order on you.

[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.

Best to fly low with this. Keeping it secret doesn't mean we can't make the big reveal later.

fasquardon
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
[X] Keep it a secret publicly, but pass some quiet words through your representatives in the Free City of New York that you have what you believe to be the Declaration, and would appreciate their confirmation. Massive opinion boost with the Free City of New York, +2 Legitimacy as they automatically recognize you.
 
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