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We are going to be losing them to cold and hunger, we literally cannot use enough points to save them all. So, any plan is going to end up sacrificing some, as cold and/or hunger is going to persist no matter the first turn plan. This at least lets us get ahead of it and save 2 AP for the longer term.


Your plan isnt even effective. It's a recipe for chaos!

No one else picking "Population boom" is deliberately planning to do a fucking holodomor on the refugees! They want to keep order and scrape through, not butcher them after a dispassionate analysis of factors.

I can now up this from one person to two people who are deliberately planning to do a holodomor on our own people.
 
We are going to be losing them to cold and hunger, we literally cannot use enough points to save them all.

This is blatantly not true. The effect of succeeding at Food Purchases is "People do not starve this turn." Meanwhile we have two turns to put in progress on the two successes needed for Housing Repair, and Farming Equipment solves the long-term food issue.

If we pick the right actions and succeed at them, we won't have our population dying on us.
 
I can now up this to two people who are deliberately planning to do a holodomor on our own people.
So, what is the suggestion then? Burn all of our points ongoing food 1, housing 2, and Farming 3? Like... we are going to lose people, we may as well make their deaths count.

If we pick the right actions and succeed at them, we won't have our population dying on us.

We will still be losing people to the cold, like... no matter what happens we will lose people, and with the assasin, we may not be in a position turn 2 to fix the cold.
 
Yeah, but people will be dying no matter what you do. No defense against Victoria? Here come the bombs. No housing? People'll freeze. Fascists delay more of our actions? People die due to inaction. Fascists take power? Well, the outcome of that should be obvious. Like someone said, very many Frostpunk-vibes here.

Unlike Frostpunk, we are:
a) playing in game where loss of elders might mean loss of knowledge
b) loss of kids means loss of future workers cause of timescale
c) playing in setting where prestige is a thing and starving our own people for the sake of MORE INDUSTRY is not going to be forgotten by anyone, either internally or externally

Frostpunk is a game deliberately engineered to make callousness seem like only way to win. That's why people there are replaceable and knowledge exists in aether of common consciousness, why there is no reputation mechanics which'd make others look at you as callous prick, no other settlements your people will run away to if you treat them like shit, etc etc etc.

Outside or /r/iam14andthisisdeep cynicism, that's not how reality works.
 
If we pick the right actions and succeed at them, we won't have our population dying on us.

And then there's goddamn Victoria coming in to breathe on our necks. The death toll they'll enact on us for defiance is greater than anything we can achieve here. We cannot achieve everything we want.

Unlike Frostpunk, we are:
a) playing in game where loss of elders might mean loss of knowledge
b) loss of kids means loss of future workers cause of timescale
c) playing in setting where prestige is a thing and starving our own people for the sake of MORE INDUSTRY is not going to be forgotten by anyone, either internally or externally

Frostpunk is a game deliberately engineered to make callousness seem like only way to win. That's why people there are replaceable and knowledge exists in aether of common consciousness, why there is no reputation mechanics which'd make others look at you as callous prick, no other settlements your people will run away to if you treat them like shit, etc etc etc.

Outside or /r/iam14andthisisdeep cynicism, that's not how reality works.

There are very much real world policies that enact things like this that work. See China's pension plans for the elderly that would stave off an economic crisis.
 
Unlike Frostpunk, we are:
a) playing in game where loss of elders might mean loss of knowledge
b) loss of kids means loss of future workers cause of timescale
c) playing in setting where prestige is a thing and starving our own people for the sake of MORE INDUSTRY is not going to be forgotten by anyone, either internally or externally

Frostpunk is a game deliberately engineered to make callousness seem like only way to win. That's why people there are replaceable and knowledge exists in aether of common consciousness, why there is no reputation mechanics which'd make others look at you as callous prick, no other settlements your people will run away to if you treat them like shit, etc etc etc.
Like... the problem is unless we commit all of our free AP, and get lucky, we will still have people dropping dead. I could be convinced by a 1 AP Food/3AP farming plan but that has its own issues and requires taking points away from something, and the long term loss of actions that can hit us even harder if we cannot commit 3 for housing later.

Well then maybe we should bite the bullet and try to get housing done this turn, too.
The problem is, no matter what we do outside the 1/3/2 Food/Farming/Housing option and getting lucky, we will lose people, and taking that spread can cause a massive amount of other issues for the next turns budget.
 
Sure. 3 AP in farming equipment to stop mass-deaths just before it hits is a genocide. That's not an accurate characterization of the plan.

That was a critique of the first (second?) time that you planned a genocide. I actually have no real problems with you this time.

I just want to point out that contrary to my own optimism people actually are continually arguing to democide our own population.

EDIT: Ohhh... I see what you mean. Misread that. But "Starve them now so we can tech up and build the industry so that no one will ever starve again" is like literal holodomor excuseology.
 
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A quick probability thing for our multi-AP actions:

DC 20
64% 2/2, 32% 1/2, 4% 0/2
51.2% 3/3, 38.4% 2/3, 9.6% 1/3, 0.8% 0/3

DC 30
49% 2/2, 42% 1/2, 9% 0/2
34.3% 3/3, 44.1% 2/3, 18.9% 1/3, 2.7% 0/3

DC 35
42.25% 2/2, 45.5% 1/2, 12.25% 0/2
27.5% 3/3, 44.4% 2/3, 23.9% 1/3, 4.3% 0/3

DC 40
36% 2/2, 48% 1/2, 16% 0/0
21.6% 3/3, 43.2% 2/3, 28.8% 1/3, 6.4% 0/3

DC 50
25% 2/2, 50% 1/2, 25% 0/2
12.5% 3/3, 37.5% 2/3, 37.5% 1/3, 12.5% 0/3
 
Losing kids and family, being afraid of starvation, is an excellent reason for human beings to accept radical ideas that will stop the fear - and IC, radical Victorian ideas are proven to work.
Letting people starve, even ignoring the terrible moral issue, would be a massive loss of legitimacy, and whaddya know, there's a country right next to us with massive funds to apply to such, and have done so before successfully.

It's morally and "pragmatically" a horrible idea.
 
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I have a couple of plans I would like to propose. The first one is

[] Plan Stem the Bleeding
-[ ] Show The Flag (1)
-[ ] Detroit (2)
-[ ] Scale Up Food Purchases (1)
-[ ] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[ ] Pick up Marbles (1)
-[ ] What Do You Know, Asshole? (1)
-[ ] Farming Equipment (2)

This plan seeks to get control of the waterways and reach an understanding with Detroit, while at the same time trying to get our food situation under control by buying food now and helping with farming equipment. We don't want people starving, because when they starve, they get desperate, and we don't have the AP to arrange for...accidents to happen to the Victorian Sympathizers. Yet.
 
Losing kids and family, being afraid of starvation, is an excellent reason to accept radical ideas that will stop the fear - and IC, radical Victorian ideas are proven to work.
Letting people starve, even ignoring the terrible moral issue, would be a massive loss of legitimacy, and whaddya know, there's a country right next to us with massive funds to apply to such, and have done so before successfully.

It's morally and "pragmatically" a horrible idea.
The vics are themselves in a constant state of food insecurity, so its not exactly that unique.

The main issue of food and farming 2 is going by the breakdown

We succeed on both 0.28 chance: All is well, we have no deaths and all it cost is one extra AP

We succeed only on food 0.52 chance: We have delayed the starvation issue, given up a free AP and also will now need to rapidly deal with cold

We succeed only on farming 0.07 chance: We get the people food, but there is that early starvation

We fail at both 0.13 chance: All of the worst cases for a famine happen and we lose a mass of people

Going by food and farming 3

We succeed on both 0.52 chance: All is well, we have no deaths and all it cost is one extra AP

We succeed only on food 0.28 chance: We have delayed the starvation issue, given up a free AP and also will now need to rapidly deal with cold

We succeed only on farming 0.13 chance: We get the people food, but there is that early starvation

We fail at both 0.07 chance: All of the worst cases for a famine happen and we lose a mass of people

Farming 3 only

We succeed at a 0.65 chance: We get the people food, but there is that early starvation

We fail at a 0.35 chance: All of the worst cases for a famine happen and we lose a mass of people

So my preferred is going to be food 1/farming 3 going by stats
 
Sure, but we also have two other crises going on right now. We cannot just ignore all of them in favor of one. Our government is on the brink of collapse--our AP is dropping turn by turn and fascists are taking over--and we are on the brink of getting invaded.
 
Sure, but we also have two other crises going on right now. We cannot just ignore all of them in favor of one. Our government is on the brink of collapse--our AP is dropping turn by turn and fascists are taking over--and we are on the brink of getting invaded.

Maybe people should have thought of that before voting for Burns?

Because the entire URGENT MILITARY CRISIS that leads to HARD CALLS BY HARD MEN WHO ARE HARD is something I specifically called out as a possibility and here we are discussing the feasibility and practicality of deliberately starving our own children to death!
 
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The vics are themselves in a constant state of food insecurity, so its not exactly that unique.
They've also got a massive propaganda apparatus in the exterior, that has been on for decades, so I don't know if our people know about this, if it's just rumors...
 
How about this, its a bit light on assassin hunting, but does its damm best to make sure no-one starves, and that next turn we are in a good position to crank out insulation/brick for homes.

[ ] Plan Save the People
-[] Show The Flag (1)
-[] Organize Elections (1)
-[] Scale Up Food Purchases (1)
-[] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[] Pick Up The Marbles (1)
-[] What Do You Know, Asshole? (1)
-[] Farming Equipment (3)
 
[] Defense and Industry
-[] Address the Air (1)
-[] Detroit (2)
-[] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[] What do you know, asshole (2)
-[] Farming Equipment (3)

Logic is that this build seeks to be relatively isolationist for the time being outside of actions that directly relate to defense. If we plan to actually engage in nearby foreign policy, we'd have to sink quite a lot of AP into soothing fears, which is not worth it given the number of crises we currently have. Suspicious neighbors also aren't an immediate threat if we do not take an overtly aggressive stance. As such, informants on neighbors, while time-limited, is not important crisis-term for this strategy.

Food is a major priority here. Buying food, though, is ridiculously expensive for what it costs--2AP essentially, for a stop-gap solution. For 3 AP on farming equipment, we'd have better than even odds at getting the 2 needed successes for a more permanent solution and are very likely to get at least 1.
"Buy food" commits us to spending 1 AP per turn until the food crisis is over.

"Don't buy food" means we have no backup plan. We have roughly a 2/3 chance of a giant bumper crop harvest saving us from mass starvation at the end of the year if we go with your plan, and roughly a 1/3 chance of NO giant bumper crop harvest, in which case we get mass famine.

You also spend no AP on building more shelter for the winter, which in the long run is probably about as big a problem as famine.

Address the air and Detroit would help neutralize the major advantage Victoria has over us--air. As noted before, they really need to base out of Detroit to truly leverage their air power over us. If we take that, we beat them on the sea, deny them full power over the air, freeing us for a free fight. If they get Detroit before we get it, we're going to be in for a far rougher fight...

Lastly, if we are to ever ameliorate this action scarcity problem, we need to improve our industry.
If it was just air basing they could take a location other than Detroit. Say, Toledo, which is closer as the Viper flies anyway.

The really important reason to hold Detroit is that a few big-ass cannons carefully situated in Detroit can make it suicidally idiotic to try to get out of Lake Erie and into Lake Huron or Lake Michigan. Without which, they can't supply an invasion force to attack Chicago.

Show the Flag is nice, but as Detroit shows, Victoria can convince people to side against us, and Show the Flag explicitly intimidates our neighbors, who are already suspicious of us. Victoria's navy is also garbage--I don't expect major problems here with our Brown Water Navy.
Without patrols, our having the Brown Water Navy is pointless; our ships can't accomplish anything tied up to the dock. Moreover, you misread the wording of Show The Flag. The 1 AP result isn't "intimidate anyone." The 2 AP result ARGUABLY is, but we can't get a 2 AP result by spending 1 AP anyway, so it's a moot point.

Actually this plan, I think, does all I want. Maybe a bit less sure about showing the flag as opposed to improving training ASAP, but otherwise seems ok.
OTOH showing the flag probably combines well with poking Detroit? It's wrong lake, but still....
I think we can survive with just the Devil Brigade and poorly trained troops, ESPECIALLY if we have Detroit, and especially if we have the fleet active AND Detroit.

Also, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are effectively one body of water connected by the relatively skinny but still substantial Strait of Mackinac. And the Detroit River (on which Detroit is located) is the river that leads between Lake Huron and Lake Erie. The Victorian ports are on the other end of Lake Erie from Detroit. So our patrols will probably reach as far as Detroit.

From the discord:

"It would be half a year of your food supplies collapsing. Mostly emaciated, but you'd start losing some people out of at-risk populations. The ill, the elderly. Children. That sort of thing. "
"Buying food in addition to instantly completing farming equipment will keep anybody from starving, as opposed to simply stopping the starving very quickly."

So, we could theoretically afford to go all in onto farming equipment. As the losses would... pragmatically be only from populations that cannot be thrown into the industrial or war effort.

Thus, an update on my plan:

[ ] Plan The City Must Survive
-[] Show The Flag (1)
-[] Organize Elections (1)
-[] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[] Pick Up The Marbles (1)
-[] What Do You Know, Asshole? (2)
-[] Farming Equipment (3)
NO HOLODOMOR. THIS IS A BAD IDEA.

Arguably it is an even WORSE idea if you are planning to hold an election immediately after cutting food rations so far that Grandma starves to death. You may be assured the Victorian-sympathizing Unionists will make ALL of the hay out of that. o_O

Yeah, but people will be dying no matter what you do. No defense against Victoria? Here come the bombs. No housing? People'll freeze. Fascists delay more of our actions? People die due to inaction. Fascists take power? Well, the outcome of that should be obvious. Like someone said, very many Frostpunk-vibes here.
From what I've heard, the thing about Frostpunk is that you only start needing to go the Hard Man Hard Decisions route if you fuck things up. If you prioritize taking care of your people from the start, it's quite possible to be able to go on doing so without the HMHD approach to deciding you can write people off as 'not necessary for the industrial war effort' or whatever.

That said, I've never played the game, so I'm taking someone else's word for this.

I have a couple of plans I would like to propose. The first one is

[] Plan Stem the Bleeding
-[ ] Show The Flag (1)
-[ ] Detroit (2)
-[ ] Scale Up Food Purchases (1)
-[ ] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[ ] Pick up Marbles (1)
-[ ] What Do You Know, Asshole? (1)
-[ ] Farming Equipment (2)

This plan seeks to get control of the waterways and reach an understanding with Detroit, while at the same time trying to get our food situation under control by buying food now and helping with farming equipment. We don't want people starving, because when they starve, they get desperate, and we don't have the AP to arrange for...accidents to happen to the Victorian Sympathizers. Yet.
Tolerable, but we're REALLY going to have to hammer the Subsidize Housing button next turn. I'd be a lot happier swapping Show The Flag, Subsidize Industry, or even one of the Detroit points for a point on Housing Repair.

Maybe people should have thought of that before voting for Burns?

Because the entire URGENT MILITARY CRISIS that leads to HARD CALLS BY HARD MEN WHO ARE HARD is something I specifically called out as a possibility and here we are discussing the feasibility and practicality of deliberately starving our own children to death!
To be fair, it is a slim minority of the Burns voters who are advocating this. In fact, it's basically the same 1-3 people who have been doing this throughout the thread.

So rather than relitigate that, how about we focus on the fact that MOST of the plans being suggested DO include "buy food," often to the point of compromising other concerns quite sharply.
 
How about this, its a bit light on assassin hunting, but does its damm best to make sure no-one starves, and that next turn we are in a good position to crank out insulation/brick for homes.

[ ] Plan Save the People
-[] Show The Flag (1)
-[] Organize Elections (1)
-[] Scale Up Food Purchases (1)
-[] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[] Pick Up The Marbles (1)
-[] What Do You Know, Asshole? (1)
-[] Farming Equipment (3)

I'd rather spend that "Subsidize Industry" on Detroit or dealing with the Assassin.
 
How about this, its a bit light on assassin hunting, but does its damm best to make sure no-one starves, and that next turn we are in a good position to crank out insulation/brick for homes.

[ ] Plan Save the People
-[] Show The Flag (1)
-[] Organize Elections (1)
-[] Scale Up Food Purchases (1)
-[] Subsidize Industry (1)
-[] Pick Up The Marbles (1)
-[] What Do You Know, Asshole? (1)
-[] Farming Equipment (3)
This is within the envelope of 'okay plans,' though if it was up to me I'd accept that we can't rely on getting Farming Equipment done this turn, eat the -1 AP next turn, and get a head start on Detroit and double down on What Do You Know, Asshole? for maximum chance of running down the assassin.

Having more Action Points isn't always the most important thing. Sometimes making progress on priorities is the most important thing.

I'd rather spend that "Subsidize Industry" on Detroit or dealing with the Assassin.
In fairness, Subsidize Industry is definitely a good thing and I want it, and if we WEREN'T in danger of famine and frost I would be strongly advocating it as a Turn 1 activity regardless.
 
"Buy food" commits us to spending 1 AP per turn until the food crisis is over.

"Don't buy food" means we have no backup plan. We have roughly a 2/3 chance of a giant bumper crop harvest saving us from mass starvation at the end of the year if we go with your plan, and roughly a 1/3 chance of NO giant bumper crop harvest, in which case we get mass famine.

You also spend no AP on building more shelter for the winter, which in the long run is probably about as big a problem as famine.

We can buy food next turn, too. Capitalism doesn't disappear. I'd like to focus on housing next turn once we get subsidize industry up to make it happen.
 
This is within the envelope of 'okay plans,' though if it was up to me I'd accept that we can't rely on getting Farming Equipment done this turn, eat the -1 AP next turn, and get a head start on Detroit and double down on What Do You Know, Asshole? for maximum chance of running down the assassin.

Having more Action Points isn't always the most important thing. Sometimes making progress on priorities is the most important thing.
The advantage of spending 3 points now, instead of 2+1 or 1+2 is that it lets us save on buying food in later turns effectively saving long term AP, also only putting 1 towards hunting the assassin is still 80% odds, so not bad at all. That's almost the chances of a 1 food/2 farming plan completely screwing us over and causing mass starvation.

Plus getting industry will lower the DC for housing, letting us probably get away with a 2 AP commitment/being much safer with a 3 AP commitment.
 
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