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[ ] Accept the offer. Victoria will have air superiority in the upcoming battle; you can merely hope to cut down on the damage. This is one way, and it'll hurt their other forces as well. The NCR is a power on the continent; their good intentions are a valuable thing to court. Of course, despite how believable mass equipment breakdowns would be among Victorian forces, there's always the chance that the NCR's duplicity could be discovered. A Russian crackdown on the NCR would mean that your prospective friend on the West Coast would be permanently turned into a bitter enemy.
I'm inclined to go with this but I'm surprised by the fact that the NCR will become a "bitter enemy" if their sabotage is discovered. It's not like we're forcing them to sabotage the planes. They're taking a calculated risk and a Russian crackdown would be their own fault.
Like I said there, I'm not even sure if I how that's valuable information right now, but there it is. And thank you for your continued information transfer services. :D
It's not vital information but it's nice to know the government structure of the state when we're about to decide whether or not we're willing to enter into an agreement with it.
 
I'm inclined to go with this but I'm surprised by the fact that the NCR will become a "bitter enemy" if their sabotage is discovered. It's not like we're forcing them to sabotage the planes. They're taking a calculated risk and a Russian crackdown would be their own fault.

It is because a crackdown could leave different, Russian leaning, people in charge.
 
It is because a crackdown could leave different, Russian leaning, people in charge.
Even the faction described as Russian loyalists are only waiting for Russian domination to slacken. I don't see how putting those people in power, which seems to be the most likely result of a crackdown, would cause the NCR to become a bitter enemy of our state.
 
Honestly I don't expect to "defeat" this Air Force even with the sabotage. What I'm hoping for is to limit the effectiveness of the Victorian bombing campaign to, say, Vietnam War era levels, and thus hopefully be able to survive the air campaign with good logistics and planning and still be able to fight on the ground with reasonable effectiveness.

The Victorians are going to have air superiority, arguably even supremacy, for this round; we simply don't have the equipment to counter that. What we CAN hope to do is to plan ahead for that and use good tactics to:

1) Keep their air force from getting outright reckless (i.e. punish them if they try to dip to low altitude and strafe our troops), and
2) Rely on sabotage stopping them from the kind of devastating all-out air campaign that crippled Iraqi forces in the Gulf War.

Investing in SAMs is also a good idea, but in real life a complete integrated air defense network costs billions and we aren't going to be able to get one set up in time. It'll keep the Victorians honest, which is good (see (1), but that isn't enough by itself.[/I]
I think a lot of that depends on how serious the sabotage is, because keep in mind that there are, in fact, a few fighter jets in our airforce, and even without the sabotage these aren't going to be US level f-16s. Victoria's pilots aren't going to be as good, their basing isn't going to be as good, their maitenance is going to have issues, and they won't have as good a doctrine or really any experience at all in the air. Certainly, I think sabotage combined with a purchased, if ad-hoc, air defense grid will at least badly injure the victorian air force and commit them to attacking in force or not at all.
 
Even the faction described as Russian loyalists are only waiting for Russian domination to slacken. I don't see how putting those people in power, which seems to be the most likely result of a crackdown, would cause the NCR to become a bitter enemy of our state.
Among other things, if the Russians learn that the NCR had enough ties to Chicagoland to sabotage Victorian hardware for the sake of protecting Chicagoland, that immediately triggers one of their most consistent foreign policy goals: prevent the formation of any strong alliances or power blocs on the North American continent that they don't control.

They will probably spread deliberate misinformation about how Chicagoland sold out the New California Republic to the Russians, falsify propaganda regarding our atrocious "just another warlord" behavior under the leadership of a man who deserted the Pacific Republic in its hour of need a generation ago, and make a commitment to destroying Chicagoland a condition of continued survival for the NCR.

So we may be facing a forcibly conscripted enemy, but nonetheless a bitter one.

I think a lot of that depends on how serious the sabotage is, because keep in mind that there are, in fact, a few fighter jets in our airforce, and even without the sabotage these aren't going to be US level f-16s. Victoria's pilots aren't going to be as good, their basing isn't going to be as good, their maitenance is going to have issues, and they won't have as good a doctrine or really any experience at all in the air. Certainly, I think sabotage combined with a purchased, if ad-hoc, air defense grid will at least badly injure the victorian air force and commit them to attacking in force or not at all.
I think the best we can hope for is, say, Britain during the Blitz- which still means you're getting bombed a lot and the enemy isn't.

I may be underestimating the state of our air defenses, but until I get a precise rundown of the orders of battle on either side, I can't accurately estimate the balance of power. Under the circumstances, and assuming the level of sabotage doesn't extend to 'lolfail' levels that are sure to be noticed, I think we'd better plan for air inferiority in the same sense that the North Vietnamese did. Note that North Vietnam had air defenses- they still got the shit bombed out of them. We won't be facing carpet-bombing runs from B-52s, but we still need to brace for impact.
 
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Victoria's pilots aren't going to be as good, their basing isn't going to be as good, their maitenance is going to have issues, and they won't have as good a doctrine or really any experience at all in the air.

How do we know this?

There's no reason to believe that we have any form of qualative advantage! (disregarding the self-evidently absurd scenario of a fully armed, fueled, and intact F-22 rolling out of some sealed underground bunker in downtown Chicago.)

No matter how cool it would be I doubt that the Commune possess anything at or near current day american military readiness levels in regards to air combat.

Certainly the spirit is willing and the meat itself is strong, but the history doesn't exist for it.
 
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How do we know this?

There's no reason to believe that we have any form of qualative advantage! (disregarding the self-evidently absurd scenario of a fully armed, fueled, and intact F-22 rolling out of some sealed underground bunker in downtown Chicago.)

No matter how cool it would be I doubt that the Commune possess anything at or near current day american military readiness levels in regards to air combat.

Certainly the spirit is willing and the meat itself is strong, but the history doesn't exist for it.
That's relative to The US, not to us. It's kind of annoying how ambigous that is, sorry; I should remember to use America.
 
Victoria is fairly far away; Opposition might set up a forward airfield rather than hope that most (undertrained) pilots don't fail their navigation checks consistently.

And if they set up forward airfield, we can stage a strike with our elite batallion with the goal of capturing it and looting all the planes.
 
-[ ] Ask the NCR to focus on sabotaging the accuracy and reliability of the munitions dropped by the Victorian jets, in particular.
At the expense of anything else, or just more of this?
-[ ] Do not discuss the new information on the Victorian air force with anyone in the government. The effort to get rid of all their spies isn't finished, after all.
Redundant; will already be done. Nothing to be done on your end, after all, so nobody needs to know.
In context, what was Poptart being coy about?
Somebody asked where Victoria gets its gadgets if the NCR stops playing ball, and I jokingly commented that they start using a lot more 7.62x39 ammunition (the USSR's favorite, and the cartridge that spread across the world with their blessing). My follow-up was clarifying that Alexander would stop being coy about his puppets supplying one another and would just do it directly.
I'm inclined to go with this but I'm surprised by the fact that the NCR will become a "bitter enemy" if their sabotage is discovered. It's not like we're forcing them to sabotage the planes. They're taking a calculated risk and a Russian crackdown would be their own fault.
I mean that if they get found out, home rule goes away and Moscow sends somebody reliable to keep them in line.
To be featured in upcoming posts.
 
[ ] Extend the offer. Counter-offer with a better deal. In exchange for open NCR assistance in defeating the Victorian incursion, you will commit to an alliance with the NCR and assist them in openly throwing off Russia rule ahead of their current schedule. Aside from the obvious downside of immediately provoking a full-scale Russian response, this is a tough ask of the NCR given your current size and worth. Roll a d100 with a DC of 60; if you fail, default to, "Accept the offer."

So, denying Russia one of its puppet states is appealing to me: it gives them yet another source of troubles.
 
Can we offense them assistance, but not make it ahead of schedule for them? Just like. When you're ready, we'll be there to help with what we can?
 
[ ] Extend the offer. Counter-offer with a better deal. In exchange for open NCR assistance in defeating the Victorian incursion, you will commit to an alliance with the NCR and assist them in openly throwing off Russia rule ahead of their current schedule. Aside from the obvious downside of immediately provoking a full-scale Russian response, this is a tough ask of the NCR given your current size and worth. Roll a d100 with a DC of 60; if you fail, default to, "Accept the offer."

IR people would describe what NCR is doing as hedging - they want to be in our good graces if we do win, and if we lose they hand everybody at the F-16 plant over to the Russians and move on with their lives.

I want to test how deeply the NCR is willing to commit to us, and what they're willing to put on paper - and this is a convenient opportunity to do so. Agreeing to the alliance doesn't necessarily commit us to accelerating NCR's timetable - that's something that can be renegotiated later on.
 
Can we offense them assistance, but not make it ahead of schedule for them? Just like. When you're ready, we'll be there to help with what we can?
They will be delighted to get more than they hoped for without having to do anything extra for it.
[ ] Extend the offer. Counter-offer with a better deal. In exchange for open NCR assistance in defeating the Victorian incursion, you will commit to an alliance with the NCR and assist them in openly throwing off Russia rule ahead of their current schedule. Aside from the obvious downside of immediately provoking a full-scale Russian response, this is a tough ask of the NCR given your current size and worth. Roll a d100 with a DC of 60; if you fail, default to, "Accept the offer."

IR people would describe what NCR is doing as hedging - they want to be in our good graces if we do win, and if we lose they hand everybody at the F-16 plant over to the Russians and move on with their lives.

I want to test how deeply the NCR is willing to commit to us, and what they're willing to put on paper - and this is a convenient opportunity to do so. Agreeing to the alliance doesn't necessarily commit us to accelerating NCR's timetable - that's something that can be renegotiated later on.
I mean, if they give you open aid against the Victorians, as described, their timetable basically accelerates to, "immediately," as disguising troop and materiel movements across the Rockies as something more innocent is not really within their abilities.
 
They will be delighted to get more than they hoped for without having to do anything extra for it.

I mean, if they give you open aid against the Victorians, as described, their timetable basically accelerates to, "immediately," as disguising troop and materiel movements across the Rockies as something more innocent is not really within their abilities.
That means the success of the immediate alliance relies on the elements of surprise. Way too much of it than necessary. That's too risky for an opening salvo. Let's just be grateful for the offer and start building up the plans from there.

[ ] Accept the offer. Victoria will have air superiority in the upcoming battle; you can merely hope to cut down on the damage. This is one way, and it'll hurt their other forces as well. The NCR is a power on the continent; their good intentions are a valuable thing to court. Of course, despite how believable mass equipment breakdowns would be among Victorian forces, there's always the chance that the NCR's duplicity could be discovered. A Russian crackdown on the NCR would mean that your prospective friend on the West Coast would be permanently turned into a bitter enemy.
 
[ ] Accept the offer. Victoria will have air superiority in the upcoming battle; you can merely hope to cut down on the damage. This is one way, and it'll hurt their other forces as well. The NCR is a power on the continent; their good intentions are a valuable thing to court. Of course, despite how believable mass equipment breakdowns would be among Victorian forces, there's always the chance that the NCR's duplicity could be discovered. A Russian crackdown on the NCR would mean that your prospective friend on the West Coast would be permanently turned into a bitter enemy.
 
Some discord background that help lead to the accord.

"What made the local warlords go, democracy sounds wonderful, i would like to join you?"

PoptartProdigyToday at 7:20 AM

"Hellfire Burns absolutely tearing through the Victorian observers with the fury of ten thousand suns, purging Chicago of them for good, forging an alliance with the civilian leadership of Chicago and wider Illinois, and then the lot of them going ham on talking about the virtues of civilian governance and the health of a stable democracy.
Also, there were plenty who weren't warlords out of malice. Some were just people trying to get by and carve out some peace and quiet amidst the madness.
They leaped at the chance to federate with nearby powers, now that Victoria had been fucked off, and democracy was a way to ensure that their people had a voice in the resulting federation.
But for those who were more self-interested, Ron Burns is fucking terrifying."
 
At the expense of anything else, or just more of this?
More of this.

If it was me making the recommendations, I'd say "prioritize sabotaging the guidance packages of smart munitions and antitank/air-to-air weapons, the safeties on weapon fuzes so that the weapons are more likely to explode if dropped or mishandled, and on introducing deniable bugs to the software for the navigation and communications systems."

I'd also suggest "deliberately manufacture the parts to sloppy tolerances and say 'sorry sir best we can do' so that they'll have to keep replacing, fiddling with, and exchanging parts and have more jets deadlined for maintenance or engine wear at any one time," but if they're not already doing that then I am very very disappointed in them. :p

...

But I'm trying to speak in-character about people who probably don't know much about fighter jets beyond "what can they drop on my head" and a reasonable level of 20th century military history literacy. And who can't conveniently look things up, and are afraid to bring in a consultant who knows jet fighters because that person might be a Victorian spy or mole.

So I can't get as specific, and my image of what might get requested in-character is something like "Try to make sure their munitions are unreliable, unsafe, and either poorly guided or unguided as much of the time as you can. We can survive getting dumb-bombed by jets, I don't want us to bet on surviving getting smart-bombed."

Redundant; will already be done. Nothing to be done on your end, after all, so nobody needs to know.
Good. That's a relief.

Somebody asked where Victoria gets its gadgets if the NCR stops playing ball, and I jokingly commented that they start using a lot more 7.62x39 ammunition (the USSR's favorite, and the cartridge that spread across the world with their blessing). My follow-up was clarifying that Alexander would stop being coy about his puppets supplying one another and would just do it directly.
Yeah, I figured.

I mean, if they give you open aid against the Victorians, as described, their timetable basically accelerates to, "immediately," as disguising troop and materiel movements across the Rockies as something more innocent is not really within their abilities.
If they could get one thing to us, I'd be asking them for heavy surface-to-air missiles (the kind the size of a telephone pole that can hit a plane ten miles overhead, not the kind you fire from the shoulder like a bazooka and usually have a ceiling of a mile or two).

I'd want to ask them if they can do that specific thing. If they don't think they can pull it off deniably, that's a pity. If they can, that would be great and we can reasonably hope to get by with little more.

Anything else, we can probably manufacture an acceptable version of ourselves, or have an acceptable substitute for (e.g. mass production of something like WWII unguided bazooka rockets is possible with a fairly limited level of technology, and those are more than enough to act as can-openers against a T-34 if no gun-carrying vehicles of our own are in position to deal with them).

And they're just going to fall in line? What a bunch of pushovers.
More of a run-over; it's hard to continue disputing who gets to run your state government, when you've been ground into street pizza under the treads of an advancing armored personnel carrier.
 
I'm tentatively in favor of accepting the offer, although it does mean we're on an accelerated timeline of our own.

I'm not sure what the state of our electronics industry is (probably non-existent, but hey), but I wonder if we could at least cobble together radar-guided high-altitude flak.
 
I'm tentatively in favor of accepting the offer, although it does mean we're on an accelerated timeline of our own.

I'm not sure what the state of our electronics industry is (probably non-existent, but hey), but I wonder if we could at least cobble together radar-guided high-altitude flak.
True.

Radar-guided flak guns are effective against subsonic aircraft at typical altitudes, but becomes sharply less effective in the amounts we can afford if the enemy has learned how to DOOOODGE- sorry, meme reflex, I'm actually serious about dodging being important. There's a certain limit on how fast the gun system can acquire a target, predict its location, and have a shell arrive to go 'boom' at the projected point where the plane will be when it arrives. If your plane zig-zags or bobs up and down frequently enough to avoid having a predictable course, it helps.

(Here is a WWII helpful tutorial newsreel on how to dodge getting shot at by flak guns. Very informative about how high altitude flak works)

Anyway, the Victorians might well have let their bombing tactics degenerate to the point where they'd fly straight into a flak belt at subsonic speeds a few times, which would be nice. They can, however, counter that tactic by flying with afterburners lit. At supersonic speeds, so fast that they cross the zone any given flak gun can cover at high altitude fast enough that by the time the shells arrive, it's already out of range.

On the other hand, that will burn up their fuel rapidly (about, uh, roughly four times as fast for the F100 engine used in the F-16), and puts a LOT of wear and tear on the engines, especially when used heavily, which forces more engine refurbishment and replacement.


Basically, flak only works effectively against bombers moving at subsonic speeds and that aren't maneuvering effectively against it, unless you have looooots.
 
I think you are drastically overestimating how much realistic ability they have to say, "no," when a division of Russian soldiers with fully modern gear shows up in the capital to say, "Hello, here is your new governor."
I think you overestimate the ability of a such a governor to actually govern the state in any meaningful capacity. I know this is Victoria-verse and the Russians are the hyper competent evildoers but such a governor would have zero legitimacy in the eyes of the public and would be incapable of asserting their rule over the a nation of tens of millions and a division of Russian soldiers isn't going to change that to a significant degree. Just look at the occupation of Iraq which had half the population of California(at least) and where the US and its allies stationed almost 200,000 soldiers over a five year period. I'd honestly be surprised if the Californians are less hostile than the Iraqis were towards the coalition, especially the Shias that make up almost 2/3 of the population.
If mere application of will sufficed to overcome gigantic material and numerical imbalances, then the anarchists would have won long ago.
Without getting too political: The anarchists haven't "won" because people in general don't support their ideology and the ideology itself performs poorly when faced with an organised enemy.
More of a run-over; it's hard to continue disputing who gets to run your state government, when you've been ground into street pizza under the treads of an advancing armored personnel carrier.
Intimidation through indiscrimate killing of civilians is a double-edged sword. It can both suppress and galvanize opposition depending on the circumstances.
 
Personally would try to get some foreign support to ship in AA. There's no way we can indigineously develop that within a year.

At times like these, another point in OWE or Foreign Sourced Equipment would've been really nice for AA and more air force. That's in the past though--we're going to have to desperately make that up with actions.
 
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