Turn Six: Word About the World
COMMONWEALTH
-The refugee influx was expected after we comprehensively demonstrated the ability to beat Victoria down not once but twice, and backed it up with a safety net guarantee and the Declaration. It will prove to be a major resource down the road.
We just need to weather the first year or so.
Its also worth noting that Dept of Diplomacy can use the population flows and threat of losing a chunk of their base as....encouragement to get some wavering polities to sign onto the Accords.
-Looks like Chicago is angling to become its own state, separate from Illnois.
Internal politics....
AMERICAS
-And the Crusaders wild ride comes to a juddering halt. Its their first major mistep, but its a doozy.
Blackwell can bottle them up there and ignore them for a couple years until he has a New Model Army to blood.
Meantime, he can get to rebuilding.
For us, this portends the end of the easy money we've been gouging out of the Vics for food.
-Cali made a mostly clean break. Good for them, and confusion to their enemies.
The tenor of China's President's statements does help explain where California's A-team diplomats went during the Revivalist Convention.
-The Carribean Fleet's sudden activity seems aimed at us.
Well, not us personally, but North America in general, and California in particular. California-bound or originating trade is probably going around the Cape or across the Indian Ocean in order to reach the Atlantic.
Little wonder they want the America Corridor up ASAP.
On the bright side, its about to further energize cross-border Cali-Mexican trade.
Note the countries that protested Russia's moves in the Caribbean, and the ones that said nothing.
Especially the dogs that didnt bark.
ABROAD
-The fact that its expected to take two years for the EU to go from joint command structure to a unified military points to more or less a formalization of facts on the ground. But that move does point to hardening attitudes in Europe, as well as to how Little Nicky's ascension must have alarmed them.
Its also informative about just how economically and politically integrated the EU currently is.
Some good, some bad, because it means that people like France and Poland will need the buyin of the rest of the bloc to get seriously involved with us.
-Interesting events in India.
Hindu nationalist party without the allegiance of the youth at the same time demographics points to an increasing muslim population, never mind Pakistani refugees? Yeesh. Interesting times.
I wonder if Nicky will be able to resist the temptation to attempt to meddle, and if the BJP's ideology will lead them to condone it.
Or if such an attempt will draw a unified response from all of the Indian political establishment.
Smashing Miami would make the Boy feel good, but it would be pointless. The place is tiny and has no overt influence anywhere.
California would have made sense, but he's apparently decided not to.
India is shifting but is still an ally. Europe is talking shit, but is that would be a quagmire.
China. China is where Nicky is going to strike. China is overtly anti-Russia, to the point of openly congratulating California on its independence. Furthermore, it is surrounded by Russia and its allies, Japan and India. Forcing the country to fight a three-front war will make it a softer target for each. And all three desire a shot of the kind of militant nationalism a war brings right now.
Nicky wants a war to show the world that Russia is still tough and macho. That he is still tough and macho. He and his domestic allies will also want to shore up Russia's foreign alliances in the face of all these enemies testing them.
India's current regime is noticeably in danger of losing political power. Given they're nationalists, they are more likely to try and motivate their base and maybe peel away the more anti-China elements of the People's Front.
Finally, Japan has just been sort of there from what we've seen. But, the impression is a slow stagnation and decline. But, I can totally see them deciding that now is the time to expand strengthen ties with their allies, reinvigorate their nations spirit, and expand their empire.
1)California just decoupled from the Russosphere.
Decades of unequal trade deals and relatively cheap labor, and a captive pool of educated people 40-60% the size of the Russian Empire, gone, and about to weigh in on the balance sheet of the rest of the world.
The economic impact on the Russian economy, and that of its
puppets allies has yet to be calculated. As is any resultant unrest.
He could still go to war, but anything that isnt a one month intervention is unlikey to happen in the next year.
2) China is a Great Power. With the world having transitioned away from fossil fuels, they no longer have the vulnerability of petroleum imports to worry about and they're self sufficient in essentials. Any attempts at blockading them has to deal with the fact that all Japan's domestic ports and most of Imperial Russia's Pacific ports are within easy reach of the Chinese homeland.
And the rest of the world who trade with the Chinese, of course.
India might make nasty faces, but it is not going to fight a war that requires them to maintain supply lines across the freaking Himalayas. Japan is literally within missile and airstrike range of the Chinese mainland, are much more reliant on imports, and their colony of South Korea shares a landborder with China's ally/client North Korea.
Then there's the Imperial Russian port of Vladivostok, home of the Russian Pacific Fleet and literally right on China's land border.
Begging to have a couple divisions parked on it.
I give the Republic of China better than even odds of going 2v1 against Japan and Russia and winning a conventional war.
At the same time. Advantages of geography and positioning. And Little Nicky's advisors know it too.
And that doesnt even count the implications of what pulling much of their force to the Far East means for their European stability.
If the Imperials choose to start a quick war, they're going to be looking for an easy flex that has no powerful friends, doesnt mire them down in commitments, or pull away enough forces from their western border that either the EU nor the countries they invaded get any ideas. Either an enemy weak enough to get stomped, or one where they have easy logistical lines.
That means the Pacific is right out.
So are we, because we are a thousand kilometres inland and will almost certainly draw in California and everyone else looking to give him a black eye by shipping in weapons. FCNY would require attempting to stage an invasion in the Atlantic, and hoping the EU would not intervene.
Subsaharan Africa does not have any nearby Russian bases of significant size, and if Africa is now a Player, not worth the heat.
Im betting Eastern Europe somewhere close. Possibly in the Balkans.
With Option B being in the Mediterranean/Black Sea/Middle East.
Or Victoria. Sweeping Nova Scotia of organized Crusaders would be a week's work for VDV.
■■■
California would involve attempting to fight a long distance war against a nuclear power, while stripping the Russian Pacific Coast bare while China watches and sharpens its knives. That stopped being a realistic option when Cali managed to pull off their coup cleanly. That kind of war you could win and still lose.
This comes with an additional wrinkle for old Nicky boy. Considering the state of the world and Russian overt aggression I would give 90% odds that China/EU have an under the table mutual defense agreement. Allowing China to go under would put Europe in a terrible position and vice versa.
I can 99% guarantee that does not exist
The point of such treaties is deterrence. A secret mutual defense treaty is not deterring anyone.
