Well, sun Shao has an entirely military of green+, which is considered freaky. And he took a lot of the Bai's forces with him. So we can make a rough upper bound. Say he has 200k greens, and let's guess he had an attrition rate of roughly 80% in taking the Hell jungle. Then 1 million greens for the Bai military would be freaky, and if the military is like 1/10th of their cultivators, and Sun Shao took 1/2 of them away, then maybe 2 million greens for the Bai would've been freaky high. Let's guess "freaky" means ~ 5 x. Then we have a figure of 400k greens for one of the two biggest Ducal houses. Perhaps that's 2x bigger than the average, and the Empire has, IDK, 6 x as many people as the Thousand lakes, so we'd get 1million greens. If a cultivator who can reach peak red/low yellow in their life is 1/100, that'd imply 1/1000 rarity for a green level cultivator. Which seems within an order of magnitude for setting consistency.
A few problems with that. First the assumption of 200k: is that based on something? Second, Sun Shao took a lot of soldiers from Bai retainers and vassals, so even if we had the 200k it wouldn't really point to the size of the Bai themselves. Third: Sun Shao had an all green+ army at the end of the campaign, implicitly because the yellows and reds he took with him either died or leveled up, so it doesn't really point to the starting size of the Bai's greens.
My problem is that I don't have any confidence in my assumptions, so making more assumptions doesn't exactly help.
Edit: For clarity, I'm not looking at the province level, I'm specifically interested in the ducal clan itself.
This started with me wondering how much the Cai would have to backfill if they were to match the established clans in scope.
Empire is HUGE.
Like, ridoncolously huge.
Yes, most of it is practically uninhabitable, but with cultivator farmers, that does not mean much, their cities can have way more people real cities could even without modern mass production of food.
So while most people don't cultivate, and most cultivators don't hit green, the sheer scale of he empire is going to lead to surprisingly large number of cultivators, especially at lower tiers.
People probably just don't know. Like, population estimates basically everywhere throughout most of history, even the most famously accurate censuses were... honestly kinda guesses?
Sure, but then instant communication over vast distances was not a thing.
The Empire has or should have every tool to have at least a somewhat accurate projection
Empire has instant communication, but it is too expensive to most people, including nobles.
Census still uses roughly the same techniques bronze age humanity had, just somewhat better thanks to punch wizardry.
There might be an imperial ministry in charge of collecting census, but i would expect them to be decades, if not centuries out of date, and lot of smaller villages, or poorer districts of large cities, are not going to have accurate numbers sent (either on time or at all) because nobody has time or money for that.
Sure, but then instant communication over vast distances was not a thing.
The Empire has or should have every tool to have at least a somewhat accurate projection
Nothing we've seen about this communication over vast distances seems to indicate that it's really gotten rid of the main problems therein. And communication speeds are only one of the difficulties that have to be contended with. Modern census numbers are themselves often wrong by hundreds of thousands, though the 2020 U.S. Census was particularly shambolic.
So, like, probably someone knows to the nearest million, or can find out with effort.
Yeah but then the U.S. Census was somewhat designed to be shambolic, republican shittery and whatnot.
I still hold that a somewhat accurate projection should be possible.
Will it off by a certain percentage? Sure, but dont make perfection the enemy of good
A few problems with that. First the assumption of 200k: is that based on something? Second, Sun Shao took a lot of soldiers from Bai retainers and vassals, so even if we had the 200k it wouldn't really point to the size of the Bai themselves. Third: Sun Shao had an all green+ army at the end of the campaign, implicitly because the yellows and reds he took with him either died or leveled up, so it doesn't really point to the starting size of the Bai's greens.
My problem is that I don't have any confidence in my assumptions, so making more assumptions doesn't exactly help.
Edit: For clarity, I'm not looking at the province level, I'm specifically interested in the ducal clan itself.
This started with me wondering how much the Cai would have to backfill if they were to match the established clans in scope.
So we actually have some information on the numbers. In chapter 56 Han Jian explains the History to Ling Qi.
Quote "He granted leave to raise a hundred thousand men and burn every Red Sun settlement east of the River Tiesha."
And than he goes on to say. Qutoe "In fact, he drew on a lot of the Bai's more dissatisfied vassals - which was most of them - and increased the army he had fivefold by the time he crossed the river."
So he went into the Jungle with about 500000 soldiers.
After that he says Quote "But suffice to say, while the casualties of that campaign were pretty ruinous, when the dust settled, Sun Shao had won and come out of the campaign with a stronger army than any individual province in the Empire could easily muster. His weakest soldiers were third realm at that time."
So given that his army was one of the strongest in the empire after all the casualties, that implies the bai were left with very little. Also the Bai only have 2 Count clans left under them.
Empire is HUGE.
Like, ridoncolously huge.
Yes, most of it is practically uninhabitable, but with cultivator farmers, that does not mean much, their cities can have way more people real cities could even without modern mass production of food.
So while most people don't cultivate, and most cultivators don't hit green, the sheer scale of he empire is going to lead to surprisingly large number of cultivators, especially at lower tiers.
So we actually have some information on the numbers. In chapter 56 Han Jian explains the History to Ling Qi.
Quote "He granted leave to raise a hundred thousand men and burn every Red Sun settlement east of the River Tiesha."
And than he goes on to say. Qutoe "In fact, he drew on a lot of the Bai's more dissatisfied vassals - which was most of them - and increased the army he had fivefold by the time he crossed the river."
So he went into the Jungle with about 500000 soldiers.
After that he says Quote "But suffice to say, while the casualties of that campaign were pretty ruinous, when the dust settled, Sun Shao had won and come out of the campaign with a stronger army than any individual province in the Empire could easily muster. His weakest soldiers were third realm at that time."
We don't know, and i don't think Yrs does either, the information is not needed for the story so it is left vague.
Bai are an ethnicity of their own, probably in the tens of thousands at low end.
But they are probably an anomaly.
Yeah but then the U.S. Census was somewhat designed to be shambolic, republican shittery and whatnot.
I still hold that a somewhat accurate projection should be possible.
Will it off by a certain percentage? Sure, but dont make perfection the enemy of good
I suspect the reason for not having one is it threatens Clan primacy and military power. We've already seen people who hide their power levels, and Still Waters Deeping is using a Name that isn't public. A census is trying to impose centralized control on all of that and is this a direct threat likely to spark a civil war. Nobody is willing to give info on their secret weapons away.
That assumes most of the unaccounted for people actually have any money to extract.
Also, i don't think Empire is that centralized.
Average citizen does not pay taxes to the empire, they pay them to their immediate lord, who pays to their liege, who pays taxes to their liege, and so on.
edit-
Also the above.
Accurate census is not worth the money it would cost the throne, and their vassals largely do not want one.
I suspect the reason for not having one is it threatens Clan primacy and military power. We've already seen people who hide their power levels, and Still Waters Deeping is using a Name that isn't public. A census is trying to impose centralized control on all of that and is this a direct threat likely to spark a civil war.
Ha, now that I can see, didnt think about it from that point of view.
But then many of my assumptions are just shots in the dark without knowing anything about the wider economy, taxation, monetary policies etc.
Ha, now that I can see, didnt think about it from that point of view.
But then many of my assumptions are just shots in the dark without knowing anything about the wider economy, taxation, monetary policies etc.
You also have to take into account that the mortal economy is a small fraction of your total tax base since cultivator goods are just vastly more valuable, and it's much easier to keep an eye on them since there are so few, relatively speaking.
We don't know, and i don't think Yrs does either, the information is not needed for the story so it is left vague.
Bai are an ethnicity of their own, probably in the tens of thousands at low end.
But they are probably an anomaly.
All the og ducal clans are going to be ethnicities of their own, due to the millenia they've been around. Bai's blood purity enforcing ascendant makes them more sharply delaminated, but even restricting it to acknowledged Zheng is going to put them on a similar scale.
All the og ducal clans are going to be ethnicities of their own, due to the millenia they've been around. Bai's blood purity enforcing ascendant makes them more sharply delaminated, but even restricting it to acknowledged Zheng is going to put them on a similar scale.
I can't find it anymore but i remember Ling Qi stating that a clan like the Bai could fill a city like tonghou by themself, if all the subclans are taken into account. Given that tonghou has 100000 people that at least gives a vague estimate on how many cultivators a clan like the bai have. Take it with a grain of salt though since i don't know when Ling Qi says that.
She met Cai Renxiang's eyes. They had agreed to support some syncretism. It was simply a practical necessity for the day to day running of the Embassy in the long term… and for the existence of a proper foreign quarter. If such things were to exist then the spiritual infrastructure for paths, gates and boundaries would need to exist. While Cao Chun was not incorrect that the small amounts of spiritual pollution and chaos produced by the current set up could be policed by a few dedicated exorcists… that would not, and could not scale up.
Here the Ministry couldn't get its way. At the same time, going for full integration and a sort of all inclusive spiritual council would only raise too many hackles and present too many difficulties. It was better to set a foundation here and expand later.
"I believe we must create a shared travel infrastructure at the very least," Ling Qi said. "If this arrangement is to last long term, then we cannot always be dealing with spiritual corruption and confusion at the borders, or have soldiers, messengers and any other travelers dogged by misfortunes and curses."
"Imperial methods do not need to be adapted here, rather these mountains should be tamed, and the roads made safe through proper pacification. It is true that there will be minor troubles here where safe separation from foreign elements is impossible."
"...And when points of contact grow, so will the problem," Ling Qi said. "Inspector, I can't countenance complete refusal to prepare for future growth."
"I agree that we should not step too quickly, but truly, laying foundations for travel rituals seems to me to be an absolute necessity," Dzintara said, frowning. "Obviously these methods will only be used here in the borderlands. No one's rites in their core will be infringed upon."
"Deviation has its way of spreading," Cao Chun said, frowning at her. "I cannot stop you here, Baroness… worthies of the Emerald Seas, whose lack of objection I note. However, understand that the throne WILL be watching. Imperial decrees on orthodox processes will not be crossed with these… new methods."
"I don't intend to see anyone carving open mortals for reagents and offerings on the borders of our lands," Wang Lian snorted.
"You know very well that demonic methods are not always so blatant," Cao Chun said, his expression severe.
"What do you accuse us of?" Inzha asked, beating Dzintara too it, by the way the other woman snapped her mouth shut. There was much grumbling welling up among their priests as well. Ling Qi held back a grimace.
"We have observed studies and reports of your cultivation methods. They are suspect, particularly your crone spirit, and the 'sacrifices' I have heard reported," Cao Chun said grimly. "Or do you deny that one of the benefits offered your vassal tribes was freedom from her hungers."
"Oh, now the lowlanders cares for the lives of Cloud children," Ilsur chuckled darkly.
"Yes, this old man must have forgotten the mercy of the Clouds for the young when they come to take," Luo Jie shot back, with very little of his usual indirect speech.
Cao Chun gave a short sharp nod to Luo Jie. "Regardless, cultivation practice and ritual is different than the collateral of war."
"Do not pretend your own spirits do not inflict death when they are displeased or not sacrificed too, Imperial."
"The cold of Crone Winter will harm any who are not under her protection, she is a cruel god, of a cruel domain," Jaromila said coldly. "We do not serve our people well by refusing to acknowledge cruel things, which I am sure you are familiar with. However, our rites do not demand the giving of human lives, if that is what you are implying."
This was swiftly going in a dangerous direction. "Of course, we are loyal subjects, and will not defy any imperial decrees," Ling Qi said swiftly. "However, there is a great deal of latitude for local ritual in Imperial Law. I am certain that things will not be a problem. If the throne wishes to observe, I am certain her grace will accommodate."
There was some rumbling from their own side at that. It was true that the overall Ministry fo Spiritual Affairs had the final word on Orthodoxy of spiritual rites, it was not exercised very often from what she understood.
…Unfortunately there was no way to not step into the minefield of the Empire's own internal conflicts between Imperial and provincial power here.
"As you say. I cannot stop you, only advise you of the thrones thoughts," Cao Chun said simply. "You are aware of them, and persist here, I will say no more on the matter."
It was clear that unlike past instances, Cao Chun's disapproval was not defrayed at all. It made some sense, if there was any place where his zeal for imperial orthodoxy was at its strongest, it was here, in the matter of rites, rituals and cultivation. She lowered her head in acknowledgement of his words, and then raised it again. She had known it would not be possible to avoid conflict forever.
She did wish he had not created such a sour atmosphere on the White Sky's side of the table though.
"Let us agree to the proposal to create travelers rites, gate rites and study wildland rites then," Jaromila said after a moment. "The next topic, I believe, can be the matter of the observatory you have built here."
"It has reached my ears that you wish for a place for your own scholars there," Meng Deming said. "The Meng Clan has staked significant investment in this."
"And her grace recognizes the efforts of the Meng Clan, in adding to her own investments," Cai Renxiang said calmly. "We are pleased with your flexibility and outreach."
Meng Deming inclined his head, as if those words were not totally at odds with the Meng attitude. "Yes. In recognition of shared past ties between our peoples, the Meng clan is willing to allow scholars of the… Sibiar clan access and placement there to study the secrets of the stars together."
Jaromila's eyebrows drew together, and she glanced to Khadne, who sat next to her still, for all that the other Emissary had largely given over her speaking role to Jaromila. Neither Dzintara nor Inzha showed anything but mild surprise, even as some small grumbling passed through the other members of the priestly delegation.
Jaromila tilted her head toward the other woman rose from her seat. "We accept this, in the good faith it is offered. Of course, we hope to establish further and stronger ties in the future."
"That remains to be seen," Meng Deming said.
"I am pleased that we could so easily agree on this matter. Her grace of course, supports her loyal counts in the Meng here," Ling Qi said diplomatically. She was glad that her estimation was correct here, that the White Sky would only be confused and not insulted by the stipulation. It let them take one crucial step away from the storm that had nearly broke, though the tension in the air was far from gone.
"There is another large concern," spoke up an old woman. This one bore little finery or symbols, wearing a dull brown shapeless robe of sackcloth, with iron teeth and a jutting, pointed jaw and sunken eyes. "Temples and dedications. We agree on little shared shrines to make the border between us less chaotic, but what of our halves of this Embassy itself? Where men walk the gods demand dedications. Yours will too, else ours encroach on them."
"It is true," spoke an imperial priest, he wore robes of yellow and gold, patterned with scales, and he wore a half mask of white jade, carved like a dragon's fearsome visage. His qi felt like a spring thunderstorm rumbling in the early morning. "While it is fine and good to stabilize the borders with pacts, for it was from the gods which men were given the rightful notion of borders, treaties and property, it is nonetheless a fact that like us, the gods desire the expansion of their dominions. This will see clashes as we civilize and order our lands."
"This is a new problem. Wild spirits and their courts learn to take their place in the Celestial order with simple acclimation and proper ritual design granting them the proper duties and stipend, but there has not been a 'rival' court to that of the Imperial Dragon since the days of chaos before the Sage," A younger but still graying woman in the same colors but less ornate finery said softly. "At least, not one which has not swiftly submitted."
There was some murmuring and conversation here, with priests of more local gods, but no real disagreement. Imperial Orthodoxy held that the Imperial Dragon was supreme over the spirit court of the Empire, with the other ancestors as their direct subordinates. Only the Greater Sun and Moon were above this, essentially holding the same position that elders in closed door cultivation held in the typical imperial clan. That was her understanding anyway. Despite her efforts Ling Qi was still not deeply studied in theology.
One of the old men cloaked in crow feathers leaned forward heavily on his stick. "There is no great Althing of the greater gods, there are too few, and they need hold no councils as men do. Little gods may be organized in many ways, but it is true that the greater god's desire to see their ways spread and followed. This can bring conflict."
Wang Lian hummed to herself, drumming her fingers on her elbow. "Frankly the Great Spirits do not need to be shoved right up to the border. Let men work, and their influence spread naturally. Shrines and minor dedications for daily ritual are fine, but I suggest that we simply place a blanket ban on major temple and site construction here at the Embassy and in any place where our people will be in close proximity. No direct pushing of influence one way or the other. Say within fifty kilometers of the border as well, since we've made those so expansive?"
There was a mild clamor of discussion on the imperial side, grumbles, discussions of what would count as minor, who would decide on the appropriate level of influence. There was not much outright outrage. Temples and priests had long been subordinate to the nobility, who were themselves a major part of the interface between man and spirit. To them this was no more divisive than discussing buffer zones of military activity.
Honestly, Ling Qi was a bit surprised by Wang Lian's proposal; it was not one discussed beforehand. Given that even Cao Chun looked a bit less irritable considering it, she thought it sounded rather good…
But the reaction from their counterparts was not nearly so calm.
Harsh whispers abounded, and there were many scowls present among the gathered priests. Many outright glared at Wang Lian or looked at their imperial counterparts with surprise and confusion, as if searching their demeanors for a trick. Dzintara certainly looked like she wanted to spit.
"If I may speak," It was Inzha's voice that rose over the noise as the tall woman rose from her seat. "I believe a better measure would be one of matching, here at the Embassy ground and in any shared space. If one side dedicates a site, the other shall as well, though that negotiation should come before any construction, to avoid perverse incentives. Obviously there would be no limits within our own borders."
Looking at the banked grumbling, and the tenor of Inzha's voice and surprise rippling through her aura, Ling Qi suspected that this was intended to be their sides 'moderate' offering, but Wang Lian's proposal had surprised them too.
"That is not unreasonable," some of the imperial clergy murmured.
"Not unreasonable!" Gan Guangli spoke up. "If there is to be any construction of that kind here, it would need balance!"
"Only some spirits are so inclined," Luo Jie said dryly.
"The gods should not be limited by mortal matters," Dzintara grumbled.
"Perhaps the ban on the Embassy grounds is a good thing, but there is no need to place limits within our own borders, the gold clad priest who had spoken before said. "If this is to be a meeting place, than neither court should command it."
Thank goodness for the people on their side who had combed the priestly applicants for those more interested in developing their theology than maintaining strict orthodoxy. In fact, Ling Qi considered, given what they had decided, maybe she could try to sneak a proposal of her own here.
Say add the addendum to the previous option that the group gathered to study rituals would determine a handful of gods and spirits which could safely coexist in shared space of negotiation? A sort of divine match to their own diplomatic teams?
Out of the corner of her eye, she saw Hanyi starting to squirm in her seat and set a hand on the girls shoulder, her part would be coming soon.
Looking back around as conversation and arguments picked up, she leaned in toward Cai Renxiang's side, they should…
[ ] Support Wang Lian's proposal. It was the most strictly neutral option and perhaps a chance to claw back lost support. Even if it would upset the White Sky. It might make foreign quarter negotiations more difficult though. (+1 MoI Favorability, -1 WS and PT favorability. Complicates Foreign Quarter options)
[ ] Support Inzha's proposal. It will require more administrative infrastructure, but it pairs well with your own thoughts. It is also limited enough that it should not hurt your position more. It holds more potential for conflicts down the row though. (+1 WS favorability, -1 PT Favorability. Does not hamper foreign Quarter goals. Theological border clashes more likely in the future.)
[ ] Let there be no limits on temples and ritual sites at all, the gods and great spirits should not be hampered by mortal affairs. (+1 PT Favorability, Theological Clashes likely to begin almost immediately post summit.)
[ ] Attempt your own proposal, let both parties discuss and petition their patrons for which spirits or gods would be most suitable to divine diplomacy, and let only these select few receive major dedications within shared spaces. (+1 ES and WS Favorability, -2 PT favorability. Ensures short term turbulence and theological debate, may allow greater stability. Supports foreign Quarter goals.)
PT Favorability loss for options 2 and 4 can be defrayed. Success rate is....
0%+40% Favorability, +5%+20% Jaromila Support=65%
Success reduces penalty by 1
Emerald Seas Nobility: 8 (+2 Ducal Support, +2 Personal accomplishments, +1 Historical Proofs, +1 Expansionist Interests Catered, +2 High Land Claims, +1 Tech Sharing -1 Incomplete Hall)
White Plumes: 3 (+1 Satisfactory security, +1 Heron General's Patience, +1 High Land Claims)
[ ] Attempt your own proposal, let both parties discuss and petition their patrons for which spirits or gods would be most suitable to divine diplomacy, and let only these select few receive major dedications within shared spaces. (+1 ES and WS Favorability, -2 PT favorability. Ensures short term turbulence and theological debate, may allow greater stability. Supports foreign Quarter goals.)
