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Springtime of Nations II: A European Republic Quest

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Stats Comparison 1887 to 1885

Format is Current vs. Past

48.31 million people vs. 45.47 million people
39.61 million eligible voters vs. 32.74 million eligible voters.
82% eligible voters vs. 72% eligible voters
3.1% pop growth vs. 1.9% pop growth
Ruthenian is new in the culture list as of 1887

Basic income, healthcare, and childcare have begun improving

No change to foreign affairs

The Landwehr training and equipment are now improving
The National Gendarmerie now exists
The Marinewehr quantity and equipment are now improving. Also, it's changed from Combined Navy to Brown-Water Navy
Seaport Quantity is now Large and has stopped improving.

Police quantity and quality are both improving

Credit ratio is now Medium
Credit ratio, tax income, and tariff income have stopped improving
Domestic debt has increased from medium to large, but we no longer owe France enough to be separated from Other, which remains at Tiny
Principal debtors remain domestic, but have increased from large to huge

Economic output is high and improving vs. medium and improving
Economic growth is booming vs. high
Activity: industry, trade, and services are improving, services has become medium vs. small
Commercial output is high and improving vs. medium and improving
Commercial growth is booming vs. high
American trade is high vs. medium
Everyone but UK, America, and France is consolidated into Other(Medium). I am uncertain if this is a bookkeeping change or not.


Literacy rate is 83% vs. 85%
Education quality and quantity has begun improving
 
I was very patiently reminded several times that I forgot to detail the results of the labor voucher pilot program, and so now I have. The 1886-1887 update has been amended accordingly; you'll find the two paragraphs in question near the end of the main section. Sorry for the delay.
 
I think an important point to be made is that this won't just hurt national pride, it'll also massively hurt our anti-colonial cred. By capitulating immediately to France, one of the big colonial powers, in the face of pressure, we're massively undercutting everything we've worked to build re: anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism. Why should the periphery trust us to stand up to France if we can't stand up now? Actions speak louder than any amount of words.
 
I will fully hold to the fact that catching someone who is possibly a spy and then just handing him back and saying "sorry we caught your spy, here you go." is quite possibly the stupidest choice we can make in this situation. Like it makes us look weak, it makes france look strong, it weakens our diplomatic standing with basically everybody.

How the hell are we supposed to convince fucking anybody that we are willing to commit to an alliance when we are so scared of even the idea of standing up to a monarchist power that we both hand over a spy and then apologize for the inconvenience of holding onto said spy.

Also the idea this will make france like us in any meaningful way is asiniasinine, we are opposed to an imperial france at the very core of our political reality.

and france knows that, just because we bent over backwards to appease them doesn't mean they wont declare on us should we go to war with austria or russia.

If anything this encourages france to declare on us during a hypothetical war in the east, afterall we're so weak we wont even stand up for ourselves against them alone, let alone be able to fight against france and the eastern powers.
 
Silver Gambit said:
I will fully hold to the fact that catching someone who is possibly a spy and then just handing him back and saying "sorry we caught your spy, here you go." is quite possibly the stupidest choice we can make in this situation.
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Tbf, what did he even do that was spy-like?

Guy arrived early, met people who turned out to be relatives of his, toured and met friends, and then got arrested lol. Certainly this is a diplomatic incident, but the meat is more about the fact the guy was arrested in the first place and France doesn't like that, rather than him being a spy.
 
Haruhi is Waifu said:
Tbf, what did he even do that was spy-like?

Guy arrived early, met people who turned out to be relatives of his, toured and met friends, and then got arrested lol. Certainly this is a diplomatic incident, but the meat is more about the fact the guy was arrested in the first place and France doesn't like that, rather than him being a spy.
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him meeting members of our army known to be corrupt and suspected to be apart of a smuggling operation, makes it pretty suspicious and well beyond just having a chat with the fam and tour of our country side which just so happens to be the border we'll be fighting france on.
 
TheMaskedReader said:
I think an important point to be made is that this won't just hurt national pride, it'll also massively hurt our anti-colonial cred. By capitulating immediately to France, one of the big colonial powers, in the face of pressure, we're massively undercutting everything we've worked to build re: anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism. Why should the periphery trust us to stand up to France if we can't stand up now? Actions speak louder than any amount of words.
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I don't buy the anti colonial cred argument because currently we have zero of that. We can gain it later by punching statelets out of Austria and Russia. Bohemia, Hungary, Poland, Livonia and Illyria aren't going to remember the one time we let a guy go.
 
Nevis said:
I don't buy the anti colonial cred argument because currently we have zero of that.
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Come again?

Etranger said:
Finally, the free nations of Asia eye the carving-up of Africa with profound wariness. Having seen the expansion of French Korea and Indochina in recent years, the Napoleonic Empire's appetite is seemingly boundless, and British economic hegemony is no less crushing. The Sublime State of Iran, the Kingdom of Siam, and the formerly-Spanish Philippines all welcome German approaches in the face of potential European colonialism, with a degree of warmth only available to a known anti-colonial power. China and Japan are likewise eager to renew commercial and diplomatic relations, in keeping with the First Republic's policy of extending its industrial trade to the Far East.

The greatest difficulty for Germany's expansion of its overseas influence remains its lack of guaranteed coaling stations and resupply ports, especially in Asia, and so leases are negotiated; not territorial or extra-territorial exactions in the manner of the European hegemons, but actual fair contracts with reasonable terms to rent harbor facilities and build coal depots. In this manner, the German maritime footprint vastly expands across the Americas and Asia, while the alliances of Europe watch with wary eyes.
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Haruhi is Waifu said:
Tbf, what did he even do that was spy-like?

Guy arrived early, met people who turned out to be relatives of his, toured and met friends, and then got arrested lol. Certainly this is a diplomatic incident, but the meat is more about the fact the guy was arrested in the first place and France doesn't like that, rather than him being a spy.
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I think the descriptions of the options at the beginning of the crisis give a pretty good idea of the strength of the allegations-
Etranger said:
[] Release Schnäbele with a full apology.
The implicit agreement between nations is that foreign nationals traveling to other countries on official business are granted diplomatic protections. Regardless of the circumstances, if that unwritten tradition is to be honored, he must be released and offered an apology.

EFFECT: Crisis averted. Minor negative impact on national stability. France will likely be mollified and its war-hawks defanged. Relations with France and the Entente will improve.

[] Release Schnäbele, but insist upon his guilt.
While diplomatic niceties must be respected, there's no reason to be timid about it. Indicate that the release is purely for reasons of state, ban him from re-entering the country, and impose additional scrutiny on any future visits by French officials.

EFFECT: Crisis averted. Minor positive impact on national stability. France will likely swallow the insult, but its war-hawks will be moderately strengthened. Relations with France and the Entente mostly unaffected.

[] Hold Schnäbele pending further discussions.
There is clearly tension between the Emperor and his Minister of War, and that tension could be useful. Delay a final decision on Schnäbele to allow the government to formulate a set of demands, or even just to let France's internal pressures continue to develop.

EFFECT: Crisis continues. Minor negative impact on national stability. France may or may not declare war and the French war-hawks will be greatly strengthened. Relations with the Entente will decline. Unpredictable further potential consequences with the Entente.

[] Hang Schnäbele as a spy.
The Gendarmerie's evidence is compelling and not even a diplomatic cover is grounds for ignoring blatant acts of espionage. Try him, hang him, and be damned to France, its hawks, and its Emperor.

EFFECT: Crisis continues. Unpredictable impact on national stability. France will almost certainly declare war and the French war-hawks will be in the ascendant. The rest of the Entente may or may not intercede.
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Here we see how the charges relate to our choices. Firstly the option for release with apology indicates the motivation is to uphold implicit agreements between nations, no mention of whether he is actually a spy. The second is even more explicit about the release being a political choice, in spite of his actual guilt. Third just kicks the can down the road (though notably doesn't say anything about further investigation like some people have suggested). Fourth is the only one which directly deals with how good or bad the case is against Schnäbele, and it says the evidence is compelling to him being a spy committing "blatant acts of espionage."

So with two of the options saying he's guilty, one avoiding any decision, and one side-stepping the issue of guilt altogether, and a lack of any indication from them that he's actually fully innocent, I'd say the weight of evidence is pretty firmly towards him being guilty.

Not that this debate was ever actually about whether he was guilty or not, instead about the political ramifications of how we handle him.
 
I think that at its core, the whole release and apology is us telling the fiction that we're a "reasonable" European power that's not explicitly revolutionary in nature. All the actions with a hint of hostility against the French grows Boulanger's warhawks, as our belligerent actions feeds into their propaganda of us standing against anything France holds dear.

As is, the threat of a two-front war is very much a possibility if we don't extend any olive branches to either side. Just releasing this spy back downgrades how threatening we are perceived to the Entente and makes any post-war reality where we still exists actually bearable for them over the League.

Even then, this is literally just diplomacy and doing this should give us some leeway to do mutually beneficial "colonial" actions with the wider world without France and UK breathing on our necks.
 
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