Purple Phoenix Reborn (Constantinople ISOT)

And so we finally meet the Natives and a hint to their future with the Byzantines. Now as someone with absolutely no knowledge of Native language, how easy/difficult is it to apply learning one native language to help learn another? Would other tribes on the West coast be similar? Where does it begin to diverge?

No need for apologies as we should all realize that life comes first. Looking forward to the next portion, whenever it comes!
 
And now the scourge of the New World will arrive, the only question is which of the many plagues that an European carry with them is going to have the honor of killing half of the population?
 
And now the scourge of the New World will arrive, the only question is which of the many plagues that an European carry with them is going to have the honor of killing half of the population?

Hmm a serotype of Salmonella enterica is currently suspected being party responsible for the Cocoliziti epidemic that wiped out 80 perecent of mexico's native population whose morality rates may have been made worse by Spanish colonial policies and the New England natives, 90 percent of which died off between 1617 and 1619 the latest research apparently points seems to be pointing at Leptospirosis as being the likely suspect for that epidemic so I find it hard to venture to guess what might trigger a devastating epidemic.
 
The fact they didn't recognize the rodents to me rules out them having brought over the black rat. I imagine they were looking more at the chipmunks, jack rabbits and the like. Oh yeah, porcupines too.
 
One thing I just realized, on average diseases require a population of at least 500,000 in order to sustain themselves long term, otherwise immunities from people who have had it before kick them down and the low number of new arrivals aren't enough to keep it alive. So with that noted, it's likely that only a portion of the old world diseases will have made the journey with Constantinople, which could be both really good by keeping a larger native population alive and allowing for a larger population base to absorb the new technologies that will arrive, or really bad by making it so a few generations pass without anyone being exposed to the really bad ones so when smallpox or something hits the New World the Romans get hit by it to due to a lack of immunity, while it also destabilizes the various native empires enough to allow European conquerors to pull off similar feats to those they pulled in our timeline.
 
One thing I just realized, on average diseases require a population of at least 500,000 in order to sustain themselves long term, otherwise immunities from people who have had it before kick them down and the low number of new arrivals aren't enough to keep it alive. So with that noted, it's likely that only a portion of the old world diseases will have made the journey with Constantinople, which could be both really good by keeping a larger native population alive and allowing for a larger population base to absorb the new technologies that will arrive, or really bad by making it so a few generations pass without anyone being exposed to the really bad ones so when smallpox or something hits the New World the Romans get hit by it to due to a lack of immunity, while it also destabilizes the various native empires enough to allow European conquerors to pull off similar feats to those they pulled in our timeline.

Doubtful. The diseases that came to the Americas came on the backs of Exploration ships so a full city, especially one the size of Constantinople, is going to have all the diseases that matter(Small Pox, Tuberculosis, Cholera, a smidgen of Bubonic Plague, etc.) within it. Also immunity to a disease doesn't mean you no longer are a carrier of that disease. Most of the explorers and conquistadors weren't laid out with Smallpox but it still spread from them to the Natives when they met.

The 90% die off is still likely to happen. The upside is that those that survive won't have Spain knocking them over in the middle of their civilizational collapse so those that rebuild will be much harder for colonial powers to casually conquer having built at least a basic immunity to the great plagues Europe has to throw at them.
 
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Gotta wonder what the natives will think of Constantinople. Its one thing to see large ships and strange men sail over the horizon, its a whole nother kettle of fish to see the Thedosian walls or the Hagai Sophia.

Also, sorry if this was specified earlier, but what part of the Bay does the city sit on specifically? Vallejo, Antioch, Richmond, Oakland, etc.
 
Gotta wonder what the natives will think of Constantinople. Its one thing to see large ships and strange men sail over the horizon, its a whole nother kettle of fish to see the Thedosian walls or the Hagai Sophia.

Also, sorry if this was specified earlier, but what part of the Bay does the city sit on specifically? Vallejo, Antioch, Richmond, Oakland, etc.
Basically, the city is sitting where San Francisco's Financial District is today.
 
Doubtful. The diseases that came to the Americas came on the backs of Exploration ships so a full city, especially one the size of Constantinople, is going to have all the diseases that matter(Small Pox, Tuberculosis, Cholera, a smidgen of Bubonic Plague, etc.) within it.
That logic doesn't work. The question isn't "how many people came over", it"s "how many people formed the population group Constantinople was part of, before it was transported vs how many people formed the population group those ships were part of".

Some other important factors to consider:
1)The explorers who went to America by ship, were explorers, sailors and soldiers people prone to collecting parasites and diseases for various reasons making it more likely they'd have picked up any given disease.
2)The ships carried only men, who after months at sea were anxious to seek close contact with the natives, (particularly the girls) which provided many opportunities for even diseases with low infection rates to jump across.
3)There are in many cases lesser forms of a disease, or other diseases that provide at least some resistance to the more deadly form, and these were not brought over by the historical ships, but were brought over by Constantinople (Cow pox, for example).
4)Just because a disease was present in 16th century Spain, doesn't mean it was in 15th century Constantinople.
5)The population and culture of the Amerindians in California is going to be very different than those the historical explorers encountered, and that may (or may not) produce better results when dealing with a plague.
6)Constantinople has enough resources they actually can help deal with the plagues if they want to (as well as they know how at least), something the ships couldn't do historically.

In short, while there might by massive die-offs, there also might not.
 
That logic doesn't work. The question isn't "how many people came over", it"s "how many people formed the population group Constantinople was part of, before it was transported vs how many people formed the population group those ships were part of".

Some other important factors to consider:
1)The explorers who went to America by ship, were explorers, sailors and soldiers people prone to collecting parasites and diseases for various reasons making it more likely they'd have picked up any given disease.
2)The ships carried only men, who after months at sea were anxious to seek close contact with the natives, (particularly the girls) which provided many opportunities for even diseases with low infection rates to jump across.
3)There are in many cases lesser forms of a disease, or other diseases that provide at least some resistance to the more deadly form, and these were not brought over by the historical ships, but were brought over by Constantinople (Cow pox, for example).
4)Just because a disease was present in 16th century Spain, doesn't mean it was in 15th century Constantinople.
5)The population and culture of the Amerindians in California is going to be very different than those the historical explorers encountered, and that may (or may not) produce better results when dealing with a plague.
6)Constantinople has enough resources they actually can help deal with the plagues if they want to (as well as they know how at least), something the ships couldn't do historically.

In short, while there might by massive die-offs, there also might not.

1) I don't believe sailors have any more propensity for picking up a disease than say a peasant who the natives might come into contact with during their tour of Constantinople. Besides those ships weren't carrying many active cases of disease while there are likely active cases in Constantinople after a 3 week siege.
2) None of the diseases that matter have that low transmission rate.
3) Yes CowPox is a much less virulent version of small pox but it has an accordingly much lower transmission rate. As well even if the person fights off coxpox it won't help against the other various diseases that killed the Natives off like Bubonic Plague, Flu, Mumps, Cholera, Tuberculosis, Typhus, Yellow Fever, Pertussis, Heck even the common cold is deadly in these circumstances.
4) That's not how diseases work. Its not like it only exists when there is an epidemic going on. The diseases I've mentioned have been across all of Eurasia so there are many lesser cases and asymptomatic carriers around to spread it to the natives.
5) Culture doesn't matter and these natives died off when they met the Europeans as well. The ENTIRETY of the Americas experienced a die off when they met Europeans. Sure there were isolated tribes that didn't experience it till later but they all still got hit by the diseases eventually.
6) They really don't. They are half populated city that just got ISOT'd they have things much higher on their priority list then help the natives with diseases they've all experienced and expose themselves to reinfection. Besides medicine is still in its bloodletting phase so I really don't see how they can help beyond a maybe saving a couple thousand people at most out of the MILLIONS that died.
 
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1) I don't believe sailors have any more propensity for picking up a disease than say a peasant who the natives might come into contact with during their tour of Constantinople. Besides those ships weren't carrying many active cases of disease while there are likely active cases in Constantinople after a 3 week siege.
They did, by the simple fact that the peasent would only pick it up if there was an outbreak in his location, but sailors had the opportunity to pick up bugs from many different locations, and the cramped conditions and poor hygiene on the ships of the time would help the microbes transfer from one person to another.

2) None of the diseases that matter have that low transmission rate.
The point is transmission rates increase with closer physical contact, something the sailors would be seeking and I doubt you'd have the city people seeking (at least not anytime soon).
3) Yes CowPox is a much less virulent version of small pox but it has an accordingly much lower transmission rate. As well even if the person fights off coxpox it won't help against the other various diseases that killed the Natives off like Bubonic Plague, Flu, Mumps, Cholera, Tuberculosis, Typhus, Yellow Fever, Pertussis, Heck even the common cold is deadly in these circumstances.
Cow pox was an EXAMPLE. Most of those have more and less virulent versions, and while you're right the common cold can be deadly, it can also be a mild annoyance.

4) That's not how diseases work.
yes, it is. While you will have a-symptomatic carriers and locations where the disease is endemic without a full up outbreak, that doesn't mean everywhere will have them.

The diseases I've mentioned have been across all of Eurasia so there are many lesser cases and asymptomatic carriers around to spread it to the natives.
Maybe, and maybe there are weaker strains to spread to the natives, or this or that bug could have temporarily died off in the local population, as they do preiodically only to be reintroduced later.


5) Culture doesn't matter
It matters a great deal because it determines how people respond to others with infectious diseases. While deciding that the infected person is cursed and chasing them away with stones isn't very useful, it's much more useful than holding communal prayer vigils with everyone close together to maximize the number of infected.

and these natives died off when they met the Europeans as well.
A couple of centuries later and after the culture was radically changed, and with many more vectors for the infection.

6) They really don't. They are half populated city that just got ISOT'd they have things much higher on their priority list then help the natives with diseases they've all experienced and expose themselves to reinfection.
Point.

Besides medicine is still in its bloodletting phase
No it isn't, that was an invention of the "scientific" medicine of the early modern period. At this point medicine is based on what actually works (or seems to work) even if they don't know why.
 
They did, by the simple fact that the peasent would only pick it up if there was an outbreak in his location, but sailors had the opportunity to pick up bugs from many different locations, and the cramped conditions and poor hygiene on the ships of the time would help the microbes transfer from one person to another.

The point is transmission rates increase with closer physical contact, something the sailors would be seeking and I doubt you'd have the city people seeking (at least not anytime soon).
Cow pox was an EXAMPLE. Most of those have more and less virulent versions, and while you're right the common cold can be deadly, it can also be a mild annoyance.

yes, it is. While you will have a-symptomatic carriers and locations where the disease is endemic without a full up outbreak, that doesn't mean everywhere will have them.

Maybe, and maybe there are weaker strains to spread to the natives, or this or that bug could have temporarily died off in the local population, as they do preiodically only to be reintroduced later.


It matters a great deal because it determines how people respond to others with infectious diseases. While deciding that the infected person is cursed and chasing them away with stones isn't very useful, it's much more useful than holding communal prayer vigils with everyone close together to maximize the number of infected.

A couple of centuries later and after the culture was radically changed, and with many more vectors for the infection.

Point.


No it isn't, that was an invention of the "scientific" medicine of the early modern period. At this point medicine is based on what actually works (or seems to work) even if they don't know why.

Alright we cold go back and forth about this all day but one fact remains. These people have no immunity to any of the European diseases and have never experience an actual plague before. The only thing that might to change is going to be the percent killed from the historical 90% to say 75%(in a nonsensical best case) which is still going to be enough to collapse any major societies.
 
Alright we cold go back and forth about this all day but one fact remains. These people have no immunity to any of the European diseases and have never experience an actual plague before. The only thing that might to change is going to be the percent killed from the historical 90% to say 75%(in a nonsensical best case) which is still going to be enough to collapse any major societies.
If you want a nonsensical best case, I'd say something like 5% or less would fit the bill. that's the point, you can justify pretty much the entire range from 90%+ to under 5%
 
A lot of the reason it hit 90% was because of societal collapse and various things the Europeans did in addition to the disease. Disease, in of itself, is going to be more like...60-80% at most. Depending on the population and such. And even that may be pushing it, if you don't have any other factors in play. Not to downplay the problems, mind you.

Just that you won't hit 90% in 100% of the cases if you don't have the bevy of other factors in play.
 
The 90% figure is the highest range possible, that people like to cite because of ghoulishness. 75% is just as reasonable, those things are really hard to estimate, due to the not overwhelming abundance of pre-columbian population statistics.

It's also something something that happened over decades or centuries, the low point for the native population in the Americas being sometime in the 1600s.

Except for some the most unlucky areas or with the smallest populations, most people's lifetime will see a couple of pandemics, perhaps persistent epidemics, that might reduce the population significantly, but the end of cultures and societies is something that will generally a multi-generational event.

This ahistorical trope of the Columbian Exchange as some sort of zombie apocalypse is annoying.

ETA: ninja'd by @Skywalker_T-65 , who points out that there more to the decrease in population than just disease.
 
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I mean it did happen in places but it wasn't solely because of disease even the highly infectious ones. Beyond anything the Europeans did, diet and cultural practices like communal caring for the sick likely also played a factor in high mortality rates and just general vulnerability to becoming infected with diseases.
 
I'm about to go to work again (yay) so I can't go into horrible detail. And I'm still working out the details at any rate.

That being said, you have diametrically opposed viewpoints in regards to the Natives here. Traditional colonizers, England and Spain and such, were almost implacably hostile. Outside a handful of tribes who made themselves useful (and even they didn't have freedom forever), the best case was often 'forcibly enslaved' before everyone realized 'oh, hey, Africans don't die as often. Let's use them.' More often than not, the other results ranged from 'let's steal their land' to 'push settlers in until they kill a white guy, and then we have an excuse to go in and slaughter them and take the land'. And the land the natives got pushed to was often land they had no knowledge of, and no way to use it properly. With the resulting deaths that entailed.

It's all those factors, together, that lead to the absolute worst die offs. Disease is one, perhaps the most major, of many factors.

The Romans in this scenario? They're going to have a much lighter touch. It's in their interest to take the land, perhaps, but also in keeping the Natives on it. To grow population and because of those who (until the Spanish show up) believe they're in Literal Eden. Mass killings of the Natives are much more unlikely, as is the societal collapse and pushing them to worse land. Why push the people to bad land, when you need them to farm your land anyway?

There is (though again, working out the finer points) going to be a much milder die off in Roman lands compared to the OTL results.

That said, Cali doesn't really have any major organized tribes like, say, the Iroquois. You have to go further afield to reach those.
 
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