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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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OriginalName said:
@InterstellarHobo

What determines Crow -> Crow, Raven -> Raven, Jackdaw -> Jackdaw steal priority.
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Internal pecking order
InterstellarHobo said:
Minutia and Edge Cases
If no factions have won at the end of Day 8, the game continues until one faction has at least two Shiny Things at the end of a phase.
Each faction has an internal pecking order, used for resolving ties that the inter-faction pecking order does not. This order is secret, even to the players.
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Bolded for emphasis
 
Basically we CAN empirically test the internal pecking orders because it is not random but people don't know their exact SPEED of STEAL.
 
@Shadell - Shiny thing 3 could have very easily still been on Wiadi. Per IH, you cannot steal more than one Shiny Thing at a time.
 
Also, we can infer that ItzNarcotic is most likely a Crow since he successfully stole from Rayday, a Raven who did not originally have the Raven's Shiny Thing. Non-Magpies include now:

Rayday11
Terrabrand
-Rosen
Shadell
1KBestK
ItzNarcotic
Wiadi

Myself, Shadell, and 1K all must come after Terrabrand in this order, based on the steal chain. This means that none of us can be Jackdaws, as the first slot has been taken by Wiadi, and we likely would have seen a counterclaim to 1K's claim if she weren't telling the truth. With that, we are left with the following theoretical order:

Rayday11 (ItzNarcotic can fit in any point after this)

Terrabrand
-Rosen (mesonoxian cannot fit between Terrabrand and -Rosen)
Shadell
1KBestK (Nictis cannot fit between Shadell and 1KBestK)

Wiadi

Terrabrand is tentatively grouped with the Crows here, as it is significantly more likely from a mechanical sense for him to be with us than with the Ravens at this point, and given his earnest to get a Raven spokesperson to claim in exchange for their survival, I'd wager he's just an early-order Crow, as I believe it would benefit the Ravens significantly more for Terrabrand to act as spokesperson in that scenario. The chance of Magpie is still there, but it is so small that I'd like to just disregard it at this point.

Based on that, we have roughly half of the Crow order sorted out at the very least, with the four on the list being essentially un-CC'd Crows.

@TheMaskedReader I would like to know who you tried to steal from last Night. Your information helps us greatly at the current juncture.

That being said, anyone who has not claimed a steal should absolutely not claim from this point forward. I'm fairly certain we are between meso and TMR at this point, so any other claims are beyond unnecessary, especially since the location of the third Shiny Thing is yet unknown.
 
Mind you ItzNarcotic can easily fit into a latter-half Raven slot, or the Jackdaw slot, but a Crow slot makes a lot more sense for him, given the information we have.
 
Full list of current theoretical order:

Magpie

Unnamed Raven
Rayday11
Raven3
Raven4

Terrabrand
-Rosen
Shadell
1KBestK
Crow5
Crow6
Crow7
ItzNarcotic (Not Sorted within Crows)

Wiadi
Jackdaw2

Unsorted, Steal Known: mesonoxian, Nictis
Unsorted, Steal Unknown: Cyricubed, ComiTurtle, NSMS, TheMaskedReader, QTesseract, Tykan, OriginalName

I have a feeling I'm forgetting who all has replaced because I have one ectra name here somehow. Whoever is not actually in the game, please disregard them.

@Nictis Did you replace BB, or someone else?
 
-Rosen said:
Okay yeah TMR is our best choice Today
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-Rosen said:
Also it's very much worth noting that mesonoxian is actually more likely to be Raven than Magpie at the moment, considering his and Rayday's claims on having a steal on Terrabrand with no collection match up.
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Who?
-Rosen said:
Also, we can infer that ItzNarcotic is most likely a Crow since he successfully stole from Rayday, a Raven who did not originally have the Raven's Shiny Thing.
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Who?
-Rosen said:
@TheMaskedReader I would like to know who you tried to steal from last Night. Your information helps us greatly at the current juncture.

That being said, anyone who has not claimed a steal should absolutely not claim from this point forward.
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Who?
-Rosen said:
Mind you ItzNarcotic can easily fit into a latter-half Raven slot, or the Jackdaw slot, but a Crow slot makes a lot more sense for him, given the information we have.
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Who?
-Rosen said:
replace BB
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Who!
 
this tells us that either the magpie is lying, the magpi tried to rob.... me (or like comi or something) for some insane reason, or the magpie is one of QT or comiturtle.

personally I'm betting 'lying', but y'know.
 
Okay so that. . . changes absolutely nothing, actually. Mechanically TMR is just as good a choice as meso here, given his mechanical odds versus meso are exactly the same. Behaviorally is where things differ, and makes TMR a better choice, as upon realizing his result was the same as meso's claim, it seems his first reaction is to. . . immediately scum-read meso earlier in the Wiadi development? That doesn't really make much sense to me, as meso's posts read to me as rather eager, but with at least somewhat decent intentions.
 
-Rosen said:
Okay so that. . . changes absolutely nothing, actually. Mechanically TMR is just as good a choice as meso here, given his mechanical odds versus meso are exactly the same. Behaviorally is where things differ, and makes TMR a better choice, as upon realizing his result was the same as meso's claim, it seems his first reaction is to. . . immediately scum-read meso earlier in the Wiadi development? That doesn't really make much sense to me, as meso's posts read to me as rather eager, but with at least somewhat decent intentions.
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Meso also claimed so fast there was little chance of him having read and judged my post claiming being stolen from if we're entirely honest.

this is important to the extent that the Magpie would likely be reluctant to claim a whiff-steal on someone who could concievably have a shiny thus incriminating them with 'but I HAVE a shiny'. This matters even more for if targeting a raven, but it is a contributing factor, albeit a fairly small one all told. But it is another factor.
 
Terrabrand said:
Meso also claimed so fast there was little chance of him having read and judged my post claiming being stolen from if we're entirely honest.

this is important to the extent that the Magpie would likely be reluctant to claim a whiff-steal on someone who could concievably have a shiny thus incriminating them with 'but I HAVE a shiny'. This matters even more for if targeting a raven, but it is a contributing factor, albeit a fairly small one all told. But it is another factor.
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Agree here, and it leads me to believe meso is in the latter half of the Pecking Order, making him either Crow or Jackdaw imo
 
I'd presume that few would lie about a confirmed robbery. Meso failing on Terra doesn't confirm Meso, but does offer some confirmation that Terra had nothing at that timein all likelihood. We might out a raven this way, but it'd probably lead us to the magpie if they did randomly cover another person.

Now, the magpie can't gain any shinies in the middle of a night, so if someone sees the magpie with nothing, the magpie ended the night with nothing.

OriginalName, Comiturtle and like 30 Terrabrands all be written off for today.


This nets us:

Nictis failed to rob Shadell
NSMS Failed to rob OriginalName
mesonoxian Failed to rob Terra
TheMaskedReader failed to rob Terrabrand
1KBestK Robbed Shadell
QTesseract
Tykan Failed to rob OriginalName

As the suspect pool here I think. Of particular note is that I'm starting to doubt 1K's story somewhat, in that there's only 3 unknown thefts and no one's hit on them. 1K's story also requires a crow in one of a very small number of positions or a jackdaw.


OTOH, I think both TMR and Meso have played fairly overtly. At present, my gut's actually on QT of anyone.

We may also want to push more for some early disclosure on D3/4 from those unconfirmed.
 
Shadell said:
As the suspect pool here I think. Of particular note is that I'm starting to doubt 1K's story somewhat, in that there's only 3 unknown thefts and no one's hit on them. 1K's story also requires a crow in one of a very small number of positions or a jackdaw.
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1k does start to look much more suspect given that we have three unclaimed steals and nobody claiming credit for stealing... on the other hand claiming you actually stole a shiny is probably very questionable with so many claims out unless robbed yourself due to giving the magpie significantly more info to work with.
 
Terrabrand said:
this tells us that either the magpie is lying, the magpi tried to rob.... me (or like comi or something) for some insane reason, or the magpie is one of QT or comiturtle.

personally I'm betting 'lying', but y'know.
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Who!
[x] Peck Mesonoxian
mesonoxian said:
The magpie is definitely the biggest threat. They should be the easiest to eliminate too, since neither the jackdaws nor the ravens have any interest in protecting them.

I don't think we should prioritize outing the jackdaws at this point. The process of narrowing down who they are from vote irregularities is likely to take a long time. Even moreso since they can work together to muddy the waters. And they just aren't as dangerous as the other two factions.
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mesonoxian said:
At this point, I don't know for sure if Wiadi is the magpie or not, but I am content with pecking a noncrow.

[X] Peck Wiadi
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mesonoxian said:
And if this plan doesn't come together, I am cool with pecking a Jackdaw or Raven today, too, though getting the Magpie is ideal.
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Hmmm. Given that BB's vote shouldn't count at the moment, and just to keep the plan going...

[X] Peck Wiadi

Because while I doubt he's not actually a jackdaw, I want that mech confirm if possible and this puts him 1 ahead of Meso if you discount the Broken Base vote when she was replaced etc. Since Wiadi is voting Meso, that SHOULD lead to a meso death. Unless wiadi is magpie, in which case mission bloody accomplished yeah?
 
Terrabrand said:
1k does start to look much more suspect given that we have three unclaimed steals and nobody claiming credit for stealing...
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Who.
ComiTurtle said:
If you believe someone stole behind you and you are a crow they can only be a crow or Jackdaw.
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1KBestK said:
I stole a shiny from @Shadell and had mine stolen. Claim or die (tomorrow I guess?)
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ComiTurtle said:
Can people stop claiming they stole from someone that stole? At least give the Magpie something to think about.
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Wiadi said:
Ah, yeah, explicitly confirming that. Figured it was implied at this point but fair to check.
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QTesseract said:
All of which is to say, I disagree. The worse Terrabrand looks here, the better Wiadi does imo.
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Terrabrand said:
I'm not really sure what you're trying to point to with that collection of quotes. Maybe it's just the 'need sleep' issue, been up for a good bit and will probably try to sleep soon, but I'm not following.
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Hoot!
Terrabrand said:
1k does start to look much more suspect given that we have three unclaimed steals and nobody claiming credit for stealing...
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1KBestK said:
I stole a shiny from @Shadell and had mine stolen.
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*scratches branching line into dirt*
 
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