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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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Okay hold on that was just being dumb.

@Shadell one of three things is true here.

1: 1k has told the truth, and having stolen from you we know they are not the magpie, and having been stolen from we know the thief is someone we don't want the magpie to know for sure to be able to accurately target.

2: 1k is lying, and wasn't robbed, but is crow or jackdaw and it is mechanically beneficial to us to not make it clear this was a lie for the same reason as 1; making the magpie wrong about steal targets.

3: 1k is lying about having snagged your shiny at all but for some gods forsaken reason the real thief has not counterclaimed.
 
Like, the only case that allows for magpie 1k requires a ballsy, uncounterclaimed lie, because a magpie can't steal that late in the cycle.

And somebody should know that's off if they actually got the shiny.

Whether 1k is town can be revisited when the magpie does not loom over us all.
 
Terrabrand said:
Okay hold on that was just being dumb.

@Shadell one of three things is true here.

1: 1k has told the truth, and having stolen from you we know they are not the magpie, and having been stolen from we know the thief is someone we don't want the magpie to know for sure to be able to accurately target.

2: 1k is lying, and wasn't robbed, but is crow or jackdaw and it is mechanically beneficial to us to not make it clear this was a lie for the same reason as 1; making the magpie wrong about steal targets.

3: 1k is lying about having snagged your shiny at all but for some gods forsaken reason the real thief has not counterclaimed.
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I'm guessing either 1 or 2, personally. Them being hit by somebody who's claimed they targeted you or another already-robbed target would make a lot of sense, as would 1KBestK simply lying to try and throw off the Magpie.

When it comes to voting... I'll admit, I'm half-tempted to throw mine at Nictis until they agree to communicate more clearly. Unfortunately, there's no real way to actually get a proper read on their behaviour as they've been three players so far.

Aside from that, I'm suspicious of QTesseract and 1KBestK as possible Jackdaws, I dislike mesonoxian targeting Wiadi with actual stated intent to get them pecked on a personal level, and something about some of Tykan's arguments yesterday felt slightly off to me (the ones where they were conflating 'didn't have a shiny' to automatically mean 'not a Magpie'). I don't quite get a Magpie vibe from them despite that, but maybe they're a Raven, trying to set things up so their comrade is a target? Seems a bit far-fetched, admittedly, but it's not impossible.
 
NSMS said:
When it comes to voting... I'll admit, I'm half-tempted to throw mine at Nictis until they agree to communicate more clearly. Unfortunately, there's no real way to actually get a proper read on their behaviour as they've been three players so far.
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Hoot!
 
[X] Peck Nictis

On the one hand, I don't think they're the Magpie; they're drawing too much negative attention to themselves for that. On the other, I don't have much patience for deliberate obnoxiousness.
 
I get the urge to lynch Nictis, and honestly I'm kind of feeling it myself, but the magpie is absolutely the biggest threat rn and I can't really support the annoyance lynch while that's still up in the air. To put my money where my mouth is:

[X] Lynch Mesonoxian
 
Why am I supposed to be the magpie again? I am a crow, I don't have a shiny thing, I stole from Terrabrand last night and was told I got nothing.
 
mesonoxian said:
Why am I supposed to be the magpie again? I am a crow, I don't have a shiny thing, I stole from Terrabrand last night and was told I got nothing.
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We only have your word for that, though? Like surely even if you see the crow role card in your PM, you know that none of the evidence you've provided is inconsistent with yoi as a magpie, and could be provided equally well regardless of what your alignment is?
 
QTesseract said:
We only have your word for that, though? Like surely even if you see the crow role card in your PM, you know that none of the evidence you've provided is inconsistent with yoi as a magpie, and could be provided equally well regardless of what your alignment is?
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Sure, but like, why me rather than anybody else? TMR voted me for preferring Wiadi over Terrabrand, since I am sure Wiadi isn't a crow, but am unsure Terrabrand isn't. But I thought that was pretty weak. And now apparently I am getting a significant number of votes and I am not sure of the reasoning. Nictis voted me after a bunch of quotes and the word "hoot", but that hasn't been illuminating.
 
Shadell said:
Updating: (thanks @OriginalName for the corrections).

Nictis failed to rob Shadell
ItzNarcotic Robbed Rayday
Shadell Robbed -Rosen
Rayday11 Robbed an unspecified Raven
ComiTurtle
NSMS Failed to rob OriginalName
mesonoxian Failed to rob Terra
TheMaskedReader failed to rob Terrabrand
1KBestK Robbed Shadell
QTesseract
Tykan Failed to rob OriginalName
UnderlingMaster- Was a crow, robbed no one.
OriginalName Failed to rob ComiTrutle
Wiadi
-Rosen Robbed Terrabrand
Terrabrand Robbed Wiadi
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Shadell said:
I'd presume that few would lie about a confirmed robbery. Meso failing on Terra doesn't confirm Meso, but does offer some confirmation that Terra had nothing at that timein all likelihood. We might out a raven this way, but it'd probably lead us to the magpie if they did randomly cover another person.

Now, the magpie can't gain any shinies in the middle of a night, so if someone sees the magpie with nothing, the magpie ended the night with nothing.

OriginalName, Comiturtle and like 30 Terrabrands all be written off for today.


This nets us:

Nictis failed to rob Shadell
NSMS Failed to rob OriginalName
mesonoxian Failed to rob Terra
TheMaskedReader failed to rob Terrabrand
1KBestK Robbed Shadell
QTesseract
Tykan Failed to rob OriginalName

As the suspect pool here I think. Of particular note is that I'm starting to doubt 1K's story somewhat, in that there's only 3 unknown thefts and no one's hit on them. 1K's story also requires a crow in one of a very small number of positions or a jackdaw.


OTOH, I think both TMR and Meso have played fairly overtly. At present, my gut's actually on QT of anyone.

We may also want to push more for some early disclosure on D3/4 from those unconfirmed.
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@mesonoxian consider the above posts.

We have mechanical reasons to believe everyone outside the pool in the above post is either not the magpie or at least can be safely put off if the magpie.

And that list is actually too broad. 1k can't be the magpie unless we have someone foolishly not counterclaiming responsibility for robbing shadell.

Behaviorally NSMS has struck me as earnest and probably town. Personally, I suspect TMR over you, but the range of options is relatively narrow. I suggest if you're actually a crow you make a case on someone within the list. *Shrug*.
 
Nictis purely for being annoying is a non-starter after D1, I still haven't decided personally but it's definitely not that.
 
@QTesseract your vote is formatted incorrectly, should be peck not lynch, and current distribution has wiadi behind meso for votes failing the testing of wiadi's jackdaw claim should day end before it is rectified.
 
I mean I can make the same case as is being made against me. "They could be lying and can't prove they aren't the magpie".

But if the grounds not to get lynched are to randomly target somebody else on the list and push them instead, I can't say I am terribly interested in doing so.

We've already pecked one crow and lost the shiny thing because they didn't mention it. I don't want to get lynched because I don't want us to lose, but randomly going after somebody else is only a little better and a lot more work.

I suspect Wiadi is probably a jackdaw with TMR as his partner given the way they both reacted to other folks voting each of them. (TMR voted me because I voted for Wiadi, and I believe Wiadi objected to voting TMR, but I am not up for hunting that up right now.)
 
Terrabrand said:
@QTesseract your vote is formatted incorrectly, should be peck not lynch, and current distribution has wiadi behind meso for votes failing the testing of wiadi's jackdaw claim should day end before it is rectified.
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The plan is nice but I don't see it as being as critical as you make it out to be. If they're a lying magpie, the most likely result is that the jackdaws get on their lynch today for free shinies from their corpse, followed by the chance of them robbing in the night for shinies. In either case, Magpie!Wiadi is no longer a game ending threat. Still, with that being said, not game ending doesn't mean "maximal information for town," and confirming there to be a jackdaw on Meso''s lynch will be helpful. As such.

[X] Null
(To be reinstated if vote balance there changes)
mesonoxian said:
Sure, but like, why me rather than anybody else? TMR voted me for preferring Wiadi over Terrabrand, since I am sure Wiadi isn't a crow, but am unsure Terrabrand isn't. But I thought that was pretty weak. And now apparently I am getting a significant number of votes and I am not sure of the reasoning. Nictis voted me after a bunch of quotes and the word "hoot", but that hasn't been illuminating.
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Like, in the general, we have in theory everyone as suspects:
Nictis
ItzNarcotic
Shadell
Rayday11
ComiTurtle
NSMS
mesonoxian
TheMaskedReader
1KBestK
QTesseract
Tykan
OriginalName
Wiadi
-Rosen
Terrabrand
I know I'm not the magpie. Rayday is confirmed as a Raven, so I can rule them out. Wiadi is either dead at end of the day or a jackdaw, so I don't have to worry about them either.
Nictis
ItzNarcotic
Shadell
ComiTurtle
NSMS
mesonoxian
TheMaskedReader
1KBestK
Tykan
OriginalName
-Rosen
Terrabrand
-Rosen and Shadell are mostly cleared by steals. Terrabrand is cleared by ravens, as he was robbed but did not have a shiny when they hit him.
Nictis
ItzNarcotic
ComiTurtle
NSMS
mesonoxian
TheMaskedReader
1kbestk
Tykan
OriginalName
What has me looking at you in specific is your willingness to lynch any non crow, while being directly in the magpie block. You're not the only one I'm looking at - after you, TMR tops the list, for instance - but while I'm not sure any of these are guarenteed not to be the magpie your actions are the ones that stand out here.
 
QTesseract said:
What has me looking at you in specific is your willingness to lynch any non crow, while being directly in the magpie block. You're not the only one I'm looking at - after you, TMR tops the list, for instance - but while I'm not sure any of these are guarenteed not to be the magpie your actions are the ones that stand out here.
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When I posted, it seemed like we were coming down to a choice between Wiadi or Terrabrand. By that point, I was pretty sure Wiadi wasn't a crow, whereas I think Terrabrand probably isn't, but I am not sure. So I put my vote on the magpie suspect I was sure wouldn't turn out to be a crow. I'd rather lynch the magpie than anybody else, but I'd rather lynch anybody else before lynching a team mate. I think that makes sense.

Honestly I almost dropped the vote without comment just to back the jackdaw/magpie test Terrabrand was mentioning, but give how poorly votes without commentary are usually received I threw a sentence of explanation on there. One which TMR immediately claimed was "pushing us off magpie hunting", when my first post stated the magpie was the biggest threat.

I don't think either of those two is the Magpie, because I am pretty sure they are team mates, and probably Jackdaws rather than Ravens. Other than that, I have no clue who is the magpie except probably not Terrabrand, since they come up without a shiny thing when I tried to steal from them, and not me or UnderlingMaster because I have seen both of our roles.
 
mesonoxian said:
I mean I can make the same case as is being made against me. "They could be lying and can't prove they aren't the magpie".

But if the grounds not to get lynched are to randomly target somebody else on the list and push them instead, I can't say I am terribly interested in doing so.

We've already pecked one crow and lost the shiny thing because they didn't mention it. I don't want to get lynched because I don't want us to lose, but randomly going after somebody else is only a little better and a lot more work.

I suspect Wiadi is probably a jackdaw with TMR as his partner given the way they both reacted to other folks voting each of them. (TMR voted me because I voted for Wiadi, and I believe Wiadi objected to voting TMR, but I am not up for hunting that up right now.)
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The problem is your behavior is more in line with magpie than anyone else in the pool, or at least out of behavior I have noticed.

For example, you preferring a lynch you think will 100% not be a magpie over finding a lynch you think could be a magpie.

Like, if you were trying to swing over to... QTesseract or Tykan, maybe, then I would get it.

But like. You're pushing a vote that leaves the magpie alive in conditions where most of the player base specifically wants the magpie dead. Actually trying to get the jackdaw lynched is, by the way, a suicide plan because the jackdaws hold six votes. Let me reiterate that. If you get into a lynch off with the jackdaws you need at least six more backing you than the jackdaw.

While being a magpie suspect.

QTesseract said:
-Rosen and Shadell are mostly cleared by steals. Terrabrand is cleared by ravens, as he was robbed but did not have a shiny when they hit him.
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Rosen and shadell both can't be raven or magpie. I hard claim Did Not Have Shiny At Night Start which I shouldn't even need to claim since crows didn't have a shiny, ravens have cleared me as crow, rosen got it from me which means crow or jackdaw and shadell got it from him which means crow or jackdaw (and must be jackdaw if rosen is) and 1k got it from shadell which...


Well, even tinfoil that assumes wiadi lied makes me, Shadell, and Rosen crows or, at most, early members could be ravens and or shadell a jackdaw with 1k also a jackdaw and just lying.

But none of that chain can be magpie unless I'm overlooking something huge, and from my perspective -rosen is hard confirmed crow and shadell 99% crow (with outside tinfoil in which wiadi is magpie, shadell and 1k jackdaws backing each other).
 
Terrabrand said:
The problem is your behavior is more in line with magpie than anyone else in the pool, or at least out of behavior I have noticed.

For example, you preferring a lynch you think will 100% not be a magpie over finding a lynch you think could be a magpie.
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I don't understand what you mean here? I voted for Wiadi, I subsequently came to believe they were a Jackdaw. I moved my vote off of them.
 
Sorry, I am having a hard time following things. I am having a difficult time internalizing the rules for theft order, or following the chains of custody people are claiming, and being on a bunch of meds isn't helping any.
 
@Terrabrand I meant it about not understanding who you mean, do you think I am still trying to vote Wiadi or are you talking about my vote on Nictis?
 
QTesseract said:
The plan is nice but I don't see it as being as critical as you make it out to be. If they're a lying magpie, the most likely result is that the jackdaws get on their lynch today for free shinies from their corpse, followed by the chance of them robbing in the night for shinies. In either case, Magpie!Wiadi is no longer a game ending threat. Still, with that being said, not game ending doesn't mean "maximal information for town," and confirming there to be a jackdaw on Meso''s lynch will be helpful. As such.

[X] Null
(To be reinstated if vote balance there changes)

Like, in the general, we have in theory everyone as suspects:
Nictis
ItzNarcotic
Shadell
Rayday11
ComiTurtle
NSMS
mesonoxian
TheMaskedReader
1KBestK
QTesseract
Tykan
OriginalName
Wiadi
-Rosen
Terrabrand
I know I'm not the magpie. Rayday is confirmed as a Raven, so I can rule them out. Wiadi is either dead at end of the day or a jackdaw, so I don't have to worry about them either.
Nictis
ItzNarcotic
Shadell
ComiTurtle
NSMS
mesonoxian
TheMaskedReader
1KBestK
Tykan
OriginalName
-Rosen
Terrabrand
-Rosen and Shadell are mostly cleared by steals. Terrabrand is cleared by ravens, as he was robbed but did not have a shiny when they hit him.
Nictis
ItzNarcotic
ComiTurtle
NSMS
mesonoxian
TheMaskedReader
1kbestk
Tykan
OriginalName
What has me looking at you in specific is your willingness to lynch any non crow, while being directly in the magpie block. You're not the only one I'm looking at - after you, TMR tops the list, for instance - but while I'm not sure any of these are guarenteed not to be the magpie your actions are the ones that stand out here.
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You forgot one part: IIRC Rayday said another Raven tried to steal from ItzNarcotic and got nothing. So he's highly likely not the magpie.

Additionally to everyone that wants to go from that list, it's subjective since QTess wasn't cleared by anyone. So he's still a valid magpie suspect.

mesonoxian said:
I don't understand what you mean here? I voted for Wiadi, I subsequently came to believe they were a Jackdaw. I moved my vote off of them.
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The problem is you were making your post with "Wiadi is probably a Jackdaw, let's kill him" several posts AFTER he already claimed being a Jackdaw and Terra bringing up his plan to check his claim.

Additionally to balance the votes at planned. That makes it four for Wiadi (mind one vote in the tally is BB).

[X] Peck Wiadi
 
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