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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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Okay, good to know I guess. Hmm... I probably wouldn't have agreed as strongly with the night stealing plan you proposed given that. But whatever, we're on day 2 now.
 
So okay, I know I'm not a Magpie. From mechanics I don't think Rosen or meso is a Magpie. I do think that earlier slip is genuine and don't think 1K is a magpie. That leaves

@ItzNarcotic
@Shadell
@Rayday11
@ComiTurtle
@NSMS
@TheMaskedReader
@QTesseract
@Tykan
@OriginalName
@Wiadi
@Terrabrand

From additional personal reads, I doubt Terra, NSMS, or probably Comi (the one I'm least certain about on the list) are the magpie. So I'll scratch them off too.

@ItzNarcotic
@Shadell
@Rayday11
@TheMaskedReader
@QTesseract
@Tykan
@OriginalName
@Wiadi

I think this is a decent magpie pool to look at atm? So Rayday claiming if they're a Raven or Jackdaw would probably help some.
 
Wiadi > Terrabrand > -Rosen > Shadell > 1KBestK > ?

BB steals either BEFORE Shadell steals from me, or AFTER 1K steals from Shadell.

Wiadi could potentially have stolen from someone else, but Terra has clearly stolen after him. Whether the Shiny Thing Terra stole from Wiadi is different from the one I stole from Terra is yet unknown. The middle four of this chain are guaranteed, if all claims are to be believed.

So I'm now left with the following:

Terrabrand: Magpie/Crow/Raven
Shadell: Crow/Raven
1KBestK: Crow/Raven
Wiadi: Magpie/Crow/Raven/Jackdaw

I am a Crow.

I'd be very hard-pressed to believe that there are five Crows on the same chain, and my assumption that if anyone were lying, it would still be 1K, making me confident in a Raven-read on her. I also have a sneaking suspicion of Terrabrand lying here, mostly because of the things I have pointed out in the previous Day. Wiadi could be anything, as Terra stealing from him tells us nothing to his alignment (he could be a Jackdaw or Raven who had a Shiny Thing Night 1, he could be a Crow who stole before Terra in the internal order, or he could be a Magpie who stole first and foremost). Based on this I am left with the following predictions:

Terrabrand: Magpie/Crow
Shadell: Crow
1KBestK: Crow/Raven
Wiadi: Magpie/Crow

This would make Wiadi the more likely Magpie between the two, but we need a claim to set things straight.

@Wiadi we need a hard-claim from you here.
 
I did not actually account for meso here, but the chances of him being Magpie are next to none based on what knowledge the Magpie actually has. I'd be pressed to believe that meso stole after me, and is either a Crow, Raven, or Jackdaw.
 
Terrabrand said:
More seriously atm if any of @Wiadi, @-Rosen, or @Rayday11 wants to claim raven I am personally still committing to that spokesman survival guarantee and you'd be the natural spokesbird choice if one of you is a raven.

That'd simplifiy the guesses.

(If one of them lies about being raven, ravens pls counterclaim)
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Okay, I'd like to take you up on that offer. I am a Raven and although we all mostly did our own thing last night the others and I have agreed to work with town for the sake of eliminating the Magpie.

Also I'm fairly sure we ravens steal second on account of
InterstellarHobo said:
At the end of the Night, these thefts are resolved from the bottom of the Pecking Order to the top.
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InterstellarHobo said:
The Pecking Order is as follows:
Jackdaws win ties for kill votes, and get first dibs on Shiny Things when killing. Jackdaws steal last.
Crows are second in this order.
Ravens are third.
The Magpie steals first, but gets last pick of Shiny Things when killing.
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The Magpie is on the bottom of the Pecking Order, so us Ravens should be second to steal.
 
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About the Pecking Order
  • Informational
    • My apologies, certain things were unclear. We will attempt to correct this.

    There is a total order across all birds, so that for any two distinct birds A and B, one of the following is true:
    A steals before B and B lynches before A
    OR
    B steals before A and A lynches before B.

    This is referred to as the Pecking Order.

    Further, you know that:
    The Magpie steals before any other bird, and lynches after any other bird.
    Every Raven steals before every Crow and every Jackdaw, but only precedes the Magpie for lynches.
    Every Crow steals before every Jackdaw, and precedes Ravens and Magpies when lynching.
    The Jackdaws steal last, and lynch first.
     
  • Informational
    • Terrabrand said:
    Wiadi had a shiny thing, I stole wiadi's shiny thing, and someone else then filched it.

    Which means there's a chance he's the magpie.
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    mesonoxian said:
    I tried to rob @Terrabrand, but I didn't get anything.
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    Broken Base said:
    ftr I attempted to rob @Shadell, and got nothing.
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    Shadell said:
    -Rosen had a shiny. I robbed -Rosen succesfully, then was robbed.
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    ItzNarcotic said:
    I successfully stole from Rayday11, and now have a shiny thing.

    No idea whether they stole from someone before I stole it or if they had the shiny thing originally though.
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    1KBestK said:
    I stole a shiny from @Shadell and had mine stolen. Claim or die (tomorrow I guess?)
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    Barring lies we have the following chains;

    Wiadi>terrabrand>-Rosen>Shadell>1k>unknown

    Rayday11>itznarcotic.

    Meso and BB could be lying fairly easily ftr. But if they are not, me and Shadell have no shiny or are not the magpie.

    Rayday11 said:
    Okay, I'd like to take you up on that offer. I am a Raven and although we all mostly did our own thing last night the others and I have agreed to work with town for the sake of eliminating the Magpie.

    Also I'm fairly sure we ravens steal second on account of


    The Magpie is on the bottom of the Pecking Order, so us Ravens should be second to steal.
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    Did you originally possess the raven's shiny? You do not need to answer if you stole one, but if you originally held it narcotic could be the magpie, and if you did not acquire it until later he can't be the magpie (and I think has to be jackdaw?)
     
    I personally know I am not lying and so from my frame of reference rosen/shadell/1k are all unlikely to be magpie because current claims point to them taking the shiny I took from wiadi in a chain.
     
    Terrabrand said:
    Did you originally possess the raven's shiny? You do not need to answer if you stole one, but if you originally held it narcotic could be the magpie, and if you did not acquire it until later he can't be the magpie (and I think has to be jackdaw?)
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    I believe he can still be Crow here.
     
    Terrabrand said:
    I personally know I am not lying and so from my frame of reference rosen/shadell/1k are all unlikely to be magpie because current claims point to them taking the shiny I took from wiadi in a chain.
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    From your own perspective none of us should ever be considered as Magpie here, since all of our claims corroborate each other (Shadell's less so, but being at the end of the chain helps her case significantly). A counter claim in this chain guarantees that we have the Magpie pinned between two people, and any non-Magpie would be foolish not to counterclaim.
     
    Terrabrand said:
    If rayday stole a shiny, and then had the shiny he stole stolen while not originally possessing one this makes narcotic either another raven or a jackdaw because crows can't steal a shiny from ravens who did not start with one due to steal order.
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    IH just corrected this my order of theft is correct. Its inverse with lynch stealing.
     
    -Rosen said:
    From your own perspective none of us should ever be considered as Magpie here, since all of our claims corroborate each other (Shadell's less so, but being at the end of the chain helps her case significantly). A counter claim in this chain guarantees that we have the Magpie pinned between two people, and any non-Magpie would be foolish not to counterclaim.
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    Yes, from my perspective unless someone is withholding counterclaiming the magpie or something none of you are the magpie. This is a sufficiently out of probability scenario I would legitimately prefer my own lynch today to any of you because that at least proves my claim of crow.
     
    @Rayday11 as the spokesperson for the Ravens I'd be interested in any thought that maybe your collective group has/had about magpie possibilities? And I assume you not pointing to someone means none of your group is willing to claim stealing of a likely magpie?
     
    Also whoops misread that clarification.

    Okay so @Rayday11 please consult with your peers. You do not need to out anyone as having a shiny in your team, but if you ravens stole a shiny from someone, they MUST be magpie or jackdaw.
     
    Actually if Terra flips Crow at any point then that confirms me as Crow too.

    That brings my effort requirement down quite a bit now :cool2:
     
    -Rosen said:
    Actually if Terra flips Crow at any point then that confirms me as Crow too.

    That brings my effort requirement down quite a bit now :cool2:
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    yes I cannot condone anyone literally ever lynching you because, barring a counterclaim, I know you have to be a crow and so if people believe you aren't they must believe I'm also not a crow and should lynch me instead (since this isn't symmetrical and you can be a crow and me another kind of bird)
     
    This also basically confirms Shadell as Crow as well, assuming 1K's claim of being stolen from is truthful. Shadell couldn't possibly be Jackdaw at that point, as two people would have stolen after her.
     
    That brings us to the start of a pretty solid bloc here, though I am admittedly much more confident in Shadell's alignment than Terra's here.
     
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