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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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-Rosen said:
Voting power if we ML another Crow:

Magpie: 1
Ravens: 4
Crows: 6
Jackdaws: 6

At this point the Crows are literally at the mercy of the other factions, since there is no possible way for our voting power to surpass the voting power of the other factions combined. Essentially we have to work with the Magpie, the Ravens, or the Jackdaws, and none of them have any real motivation to work with us:

The Magpie is still under the threat of the other two factions, and cannot work with the Crows without just being killed outright themselves.

The Ravens will not work with the Crows outside of the Magpie-hunt, since Crows steal after the Ravens at Night, and the Jackdaws are still a threat to them with their voting power. While it benefits the Ravens to work with us to kill the Jackdaws off, it does *not* benefit them to keep a significant portion of the Crows alive going into endgame.

The Jackdaws will not work with the Crows outside of the Magpie-hunt, as if we manage to learn the identity of the other Jackdaw, they die and their odds of winning become effectively nil.

So realistically, the Ravens are the only faction that would realistically work with the Crows at this point, and even then I see it as a huge uncertainty, as it still benefits them more the less of us there are.
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1: Why would you be mislynching a Crow? You have, under this plan, three different people to lynch. Three of Six, after the Magpie is removed or ignored. You actually have to lynch a Jackdaw at some point, to prevent them from winning due to luck.
2: The Ravens also have to lower the Jackdaw count, because the Jackdaw gets near final say in Shiny, and they can't afford too many Jackdaws continuing to exist.
3: The Ravens are reliant on anonymity, as is the Magpie. Their early picks mean that if they are known then they will lose.
4: The Jackdaws have voting power, but will never outnumber the Crows without the Crows having decided to allow it, or the Ravens having decided to side with the Jackdaws, which they cannot afford to do.

As for the Plan not being continued... Speaking against it is basically a death sentence, and it's geared to find those that go against it. Dissent will be terminated, and all that. The Jackdaws will be found by the nightly count, the Ravens by the Crows that follow them and the daily reports of who got robbed and who should have caught it but didn't.
-Rosen said:
Wow now I don't wanna be here anymore.
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*hugs*
You see what I mean about laying everything out so early being unfun?
 
tbh the sheer focus on day diplomacy this game has makes it weird, especially when it's so there can be only one in design.
 
-Rosen said:
Should have just killed wiadi when we had the chance pepega
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Literally at any point from here to the end of the game.

Even ignoring how Crows are not guaranteed a loss even if the next five lynches are on Crow...

Like, if you want to run numbers, there's another six lynches ahead of us. There are seven crows alive. The Jackdaws do not have total vote control and won't have total vote control until after the game is over. If the Ravens and the Jackdaws partnered up to lynch off all y'all crows, which the Jackdaws have no reason to do, and the Ravens need the Crows in order to remove the Jackdaws...


Just, blegh. Crows can win even with all four Ravens, the Magpie, and a Jackdaw alive. Crows aren't "Playing out a loss" even if you do ignore the three non-crows you would know about, and the multiple confirmed Crows...
 
Rayday11 said:
I'm not as 'safe' as you might think, I don't expect any night to go by without someone trying to steal from me, increase that to two by revealing another Raven and most of our power is gone. This plan might find the Magpie and win the game for the crows, but I can't see a way where after we follow this plan we Ravens have any chance of winning. As it stands I don't think I can convince the other Ravens to follow this plan, you can try to explain how this benefits us but I'm the representative not the leader, even if you can convince me I can't guarantee the others will follow...
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If you do have an orb, you'll pass it to an unknown raven with zero
-Rosen said:
Yes, apologies.

So, at this point we have a fairly large pool of players that can reasonably be considered as not the Magpie:

Rayday11
Terrabrand
-Rosen
Shadell
1KBestK
Wiadi
ItzNarcotic

This leaves the following players that *can* be the Magpie.

Nictis
ComiTurtle
NSMS
TheMaskedReader
QTesseract
Tykan
OriginalName

This actually works out perfectly for our current situation.

@Nictis @ComiTurtle @NSMS @TheMaskedReader @QTesseract @Tykan @OriginalName I want all seven of you to steal from ItzNarcotic.

@Rayday11, steal from Nictis

@Terrabrand, steal from ComiTurtle

I will steal from NSMS

@Shadell, steal from TheMaskedReader

@1KBestK, steal from QTesseract

@Wiadi, steal from Tykan

@ItzNarcotic, steal from OriginalName

I will note that I would like you guys to steal from these players, regardless of if you know they are of the same alignment or not. This should give us a perfectly clean pathway to keep ItzNarcotic's Shiny Thing away from the Magpie, forcing them to play wine against the Jackdaws instead. This also benefits the Ravens in that they will (hopefully) get a better idea of what their internal Pecking Order looks like, since I am fairly certain at least two of them lie within the Magpie candidates.

Thoughts?
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I dislike this plan intensely and don't intend to follow it, as, as far as I can tell, a mechanically confirmed crow.

The magpie cannot win on a night they start with zero shinies. Everyone collaborating (with the numbers we have) can 100% stop the magpie from winning on a night they start with 1+ shinies. Carrying this out will make the pool of possible magpie suspects shrink dramatically.

Playing out other strats, or simply yoloing things, will tell crows a lot more about the game state via discussing thefts. If crows know the distribution of players, crows are incredibly empowered as the largest source of pecks and a relatively late group of thefts.

The magpie is shut down under this plan, but the magpie can't win tonight and this plan minimizes other information town can gain in a game where every job has an information gathering power.

If the magpie starts the night with an orb, we can use a strategy like this or robbing in list order to 100% prevent the magpie from winning.
 
Shadell said:
zero chance of being interrupted rather since ravens all steal as a block.
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The internal pecking order is a thing for the ravens as well, there's no guarantee that they'd steal after me. Plus why would I steal and then have someone else steal from me when that person can just cut me out of the chain and steal directly? Plus we tried something like that already and that led to me getting revealed.
 
This plan... isn't a very good one. It's too easy for the Magpie to avoid (again by simply targeting people they know don't have the shiny), and it denies the Jackdaws and Ravens the ability to act and/or comes with the possibility of outing them. The first means that we need to keep doing this plan (presumably with a different Crow target each time) pretty much every night from now on to be effective against the Magpie- something I don't see happening- and the second means that it's unlikely that the Jackdaws and Ravens will actually go along with it. Or alternatively, the Ravens might pretend to go along with it and target one another and then use that as 'proof' that they're not Ravens as they didn't get the shiny from Itz.

Basically, I don't see it working as more than a delaying action (once again), it's not likely to be followed in the first place, and it has a risk of the Ravens tainting the results to their own ends.
 
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Potential Mid-Game rules patch
  • Informational
    • It's pretty clear that there are certain balance problems- in particular, the Magpie has an unwinnably difficult job. Given that multiple people have expressed a desire to see them buffed, I am inclined to institute these changes now, rather than for future iterations.

    In particular, I would like to give the Magpie the power to 'donate' Shiny Things.
    This would make detecting them (in particular, plans to detect them) much more difficult and exploitable.
    While instant-win is an option, I think in practice this will feel random and unenjoyable.

    Additionally, I would like to shorten the game.
    This is, I think, not so much beneficial for balance, but 8 days is looking longer than I anticipated. This is likely going to wear on people and I suspect the game will be more or less decided by day 6.

    Please message me regarding whether you are fine with a mid-game patch.
    Please additionally indicate whether you want the game shortened to end on Day 6.

    If either of these changes is instituted, Night 2 will be extended 24 hours.
     
  • Informational
    • Don't take this as a comment on the presence/absence of other balance problems btw.
    There are other issues I am aware of, but which I do not think can be fixed in a non-disruptive way.
     
    It is looking very likely both changes will go in to play.
    Night 2 will be extended 24 hours, until .
     
    With that change being likely to go into effect I will say that I personally think the plan I laid out should not be executed, given what it was trying to accomplish.

    Honestly just do whatever at this point imo
     
    Rules Updates
  • Informational
    • Barring vociferous objection, the following rules updates will go in to effect.

    The Magpie can now Donate Shiny Things, placing them in the nests of players of their choice. This occurs immediately after the Magpie steals, and they can donate Shiny Things even if they started the Night with none.
    If a Shiny Thing is donated to you, and then immediately stolen, you will not be informed of either event.

    Jackdaws each have a one-time nightkill, to be performed in place of their regular theft.
    This nightkill steals all Shiny Things the target held.
    The Magpie is immune to this kill, but will still lose all Shiny Things.

    The game will now last until the end of Day 6
     
    Last edited:
  • Informational
    • Right, okay then. I can understand that it will be in the other factions' interests to remove a nightkill from the game if it's one they don't control. As such, here's the deal: I want the same protection Rayday's received. If I get it, I'm willing to work with you guys and direct my nightkill only to an agreed-upon target. If not, somebody dies tonight.

    And of course, should you take my offer and then defect, I trust my partner will ensure you regret your decision.

    So. Do we have a bargain?
     
    Wiadi said:
    Right, okay then. I can understand that it will be in the other factions' interests to remove a nightkill from the game if it's one they don't control. As such, here's the deal: I want the same protection Rayday's received. If I get it, I'm willing to work with you guys and direct my nightkill only to an agreed-upon target. If not, somebody dies tonight.

    And of course, should you take my offer and then defect, I trust my partner will ensure you regret your decision.

    So. Do we have a bargain?
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    If you want to make a deal, I've got only one I'll accept personally.

    -Rosen said:
    Nictis
    ComiTurtle
    NSMS
    TheMaskedReader
    QTesseract
    Tykan
    OriginalName
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    Kill in that pool, tonight, your choice. One of the people who CAN be the magpie. If you don't kill, or kill outside it, your the lynch tomorrow.

    I can't leave that kill potential lying around. I'll promise to not personally go after you if one in that pool dies, but no safety guarantee for your partner, regardless.
     
    Terrabrand said:
    If you want to make a deal, I've got only one I'll accept personally.


    Kill in that pool, tonight, your choice. One of the people who CAN be the magpie. If you don't kill, or kill outside it, your the lynch tomorrow.

    I can't leave that kill potential lying around. I'll promise to not personally go after you if one in that pool dies, but no safety guarantee for your partner, regardless.
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    I'm willing to second that deal, on both ends, and encourage the rest of us crows to do so even if it's me.
     
    Okay. Jackdaws just got one hell of a lot scarier. Especially if they manage to preserve their kills for the end of the game, where they have the highest chance of hitting a shiny. The Magpie, meanwhile, didn't get any more dangerous, but did just get a lot harder to positively ID. This is... less than ideal.

    I love it!
     
    NSMS said:
    Okay. Jackdaws just got one hell of a lot scarier. Especially if they manage to preserve their kills for the end of the game, where they have the highest chance of hitting a shiny. The Magpie, meanwhile, didn't get any more dangerous, but did just get a lot harder to positively ID. This is... less than ideal.

    I love it!
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    Killing on the last night is useless to the jackdaws unless someone ends up with more than one shiny and they know that. Expect to see someone dead before then, probably some of our better players too. At least with Wiadi outed we get a chance to disarm one of the kills early.
     
    Would like to get some more feedback on either of the proposed deals, especially Terrabrand's as it requires a more extreme commitment on my part. Provided I receive security in exchange, I am willing to follow that plan of action.
     
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