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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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-Rosen said:
This also basically confirms Shadell as Crow as well, assuming 1K's claim of being stolen from is truthful. Shadell couldn't possibly be Jackdaw at that point, as two people would have stolen after her.
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not neccesarily. We know jackdaws had two shinies. This means, regardless of how the magpie acted, that a jackdaw could have had a shiny on hand.

however we know Shadell is not the magpie based on this steal chain.
 
(there are two externally indistuingishable jackdaw distributions. The jackdaws could have each had one shiny, in which case the magpie doing anything other than stealing from both could leave a jackdaw with a shiny, or one jackdaw could have had two shinies, in which case the magpie stealing from both jackdaws leaves a jackdaw with a shiny)
 
Terrabrand said:
not neccesarily. We know jackdaws had two shinies. This means, regardless of how the magpie acted, that a jackdaw could have had a shiny on hand.

however we know Shadell is not the magpie based on this steal chain.
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Fair point. I'd say the odds are much higher for Crow over Jackdaw atm.
 
Wait no.

If there are two steals after Shadell then it is mechanically impossible for her to be Jackdaw. This hinges on whether 1K is telling the truth about being stolen from.
 
-Rosen said:
Wait no.

If there are two steals after Shadell then it is mechanically impossible for her to be Jackdaw. This hinges on whether 1K is telling the truth about being stolen from.
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Since Shadell stole my Shiny Thing, that leaves one potential Jackdaw slot if 1K did not get stolen from. If she did get stolen from, the other Jackdaw slot becomes occupied, regardless of 1K's or the next player's alignment, in regards to Shadell's slot.
 
So basically the odds are 1/9 that Shadell is a Jackdaw, and more like 1/99 when factoring in 1K's claim.
 
We don't actually know the shiny passed in an order is the thing. It's technically possible from outside knowledge that... actually I guess this applies to you as well, but it'd technically possible for a jackdaw to faithfully report 'I stole a shiny and my shiny was stolen' but have had a separate shiny whereby they had their original shiny stolen, and then later stole someone else's shiny, thus appearing to be part of the apparent game of pass the shiny.
 
… I think, though with all this stuff my confidence is limited, but I think a Wiadi crow claim confirms I'm not magpie? Because either he is the magpie or he's a raven/jackdaw foolishly going to the death, or he's another crow I stole from (who, one imagines, stole from either a jackdaw or the magpie.)
 
Terrabrand said:
We don't actually know the shiny passed in an order is the thing. It's technically possible from outside knowledge that... actually I guess this applies to you as well, but it'd technically possible for a jackdaw to faithfully report 'I stole a shiny and my shiny was stolen' but have had a separate shiny whereby they had their original shiny stolen, and then later stole someone else's shiny, thus appearing to be part of the apparent game of pass the shiny.
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So effectively 1K is either Magpie, Crow, or Jackdaw based on this, opening up that second slot for Shadell to possibly take up. 1K being Magpie basically flips the chain on its head, meaning it is now 2/10 odds of Shadell being Jackdaw (I should acknowledge this is actually 2/9, since my alignment is guaranteed FMPOV, but I'm looking at a neutral mechanical perspective here). It still effectively guarantees that I am Crow here, all things considered. Your alignment is still a bit of a question mark, but you are not Jackdaw at the very least.
 
I hadn't considered the Magpie!1K world here, and that throws a bit of a wrench in things.
 
Magpie 1K is however impossible from Shadell's perspective unless Shadell is a Jackdaw or the Raven that originally held the shiny; any other alignment for Shadell means they could not have a shiny in time for Magpie!1K to mug, and thus Magpie!1K should be considered a tinfoil scenario atm. Not dismissed entirely, but fairly implausible.

Terrabrand said:
Wiadi>terrabrand>-Rosen>Shadell>1k>unknown
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reminder that we have this, and meso claims 'stole from terra, got nothing' and BB claims 'stole from Shadell, got nothing'.

T
 
it goes without saying that if Shadell is an alignment that allows Magpie!1K they may find it worthwhile to out that, at their discretion, but the most likely outcome is shadell is another crow.

especially since Raven!Shadell requires like. what. Magpie!Terra and Raven!-Rosen or some such silliness?
 
Well, my fears of a super-fast hammer on Wiadi don't seem like they are happening so I don't think adding a vote to that for additional pressure to talk seems like a potential risk.

[X] Peck Wiadi
 
damnit how did I miss that t? I was gonna say something about 'that means' and then I decided 'wait I have no clue what that means' as far as the claims of trying to steal from me and Shadell. I don't know if they support or deny any world atm, given they're claims that can't be readily verified or denied- both myself and Shadell claim we have no shinies, so the claims of whiffing a steal on us our not themselves suspect if you assume we're honest.
 
like from my perspective Meso can be telling the truth about trying to steal from me, or lying about trying to steal from me, as any alignment. Any alignment he has either would move before me, and thus whiff because I haven't stolen yet, or could steal after -Rosen who I am 100% confident is crow unless we have a failure to counterclaim a bullshit claim of being the guy who robbed me which is a hilariously outside possibility since counterclaiming a place in the steal chain as magpie like that guarantees death within two days.
 
steal order also means that it's not even proven that me and shadell are legitimately out of shinies from the perspective of BB/Meso, unless they are jackdaws, because we could just be jackdaws who picked up a shiny late.

wow this is confusing and with no tracker there's really no hard way to verify steal claims is there, just soft ways.
 
Hmm. Pretty sure that at least one of Wiadi + Terrabrand is not a crow, at this point; it's not completely impossible otherwise if Wiadi stoke a shiny, I suppose, but the chain is already getting too long for comfort.
 
QTesseract said:
Hmm. Pretty sure that at least one of Wiadi + Terrabrand is not a crow, at this point; it's not completely impossible otherwise if Wiadi stoke a shiny, I suppose, but the chain is already getting too long for comfort.
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Hard agree here; I already have my doubts about Terra's alignment, which by association makes Wiadi look even worse.
 
Right, okay, definitely feeling the heat here - and fair enough, insofar as the steal chain is largely corroborated and lengthening it does in fact look awfully improbable. Hard-claiming Jackdaw. This means that Terrabrand is the only plausible Magpie suspect I can currently see, though I'm not exactly confident it's him rather than someone who's been largely uninvolved.
 
-Rosen said:
Hard agree here; I already have my doubts about Terra's alignment, which by association makes Wiadi look even worse.
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If Terrabrand is a magpie like I'm starting to think he is, that would make Wiadi a jackdaw or a raven - and, considering that jackdaws had 2 shinies last night and the magpie knew who both of them were, probably a jackdaw. It goes in reverse, too; if Wiadi is proven to be a jackdaw, then that would strongly imply that Terrabrand is a magpie for targeting them and successfully taking a shiny.

If Terrabrand is a crow, on the other hand, that would mean Wiadi is probably the magpie or a Raven, both of which are more threatening than a jackdaw.


All of which is to say, I disagree. The worse Terrabrand looks here, the better Wiadi does imo.
 
[x] Peck Wiadi

Since, if meso's claim is to be believed, Magpie!Terra could not have stolen two Shiny Things on Night 1, meaning between the two, Wiadi is mechanically the safer bet. If Wiadi does flip Jackdaw, we get a *very* likely Magpie!Terra on Day 3.

That being said, I'll be placing my steal on Terra come Nighttime, and I would highly advise everyone else to steal elsewhere, including Ravens and Jackdaws. On the off-chance that Terra is *not* the Magpie, we still need to ensure that the real Magpie has the lowest possible chance of retaining any of their Shiny Things.

That being said. . . @mesonoxian if you are lying about your initial claim, now would be the time to speak up, as we have our votes between two candidates now.
 
-Rosen said:
[x] Peck Wiadi

Since, if meso's claim is to be believed, Magpie!Terra could not have stolen two Shiny Things on Night 1, meaning between the two, Wiadi is mechanically the safer bet. If Wiadi does flip Jackdaw, we get a *very* likely Magpie!Terra on Day 3.

That being said, I'll be placing my steal on Terra come Nighttime, and I would highly advise everyone else to steal elsewhere, including Ravens and Jackdaws. On the off-chance that neither Terra nor Wiadi are the Magpie, we still need to ensure that the real Magpie has the lowest possible chance of retaining any of their Shiny Things.

That being said. . . @mesonoxian if you are lying about your initial claim, now would be the time to speak up, as we have our votes between two candidates now.
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EBWOP: Changed the underlined sentence a bit
 
-Rosen said:
[x] Peck Wiadi

Since, if meso's claim is to be believed, Magpie!Terra could not have stolen two Shiny Things on Night 1, meaning between the two, Wiadi is mechanically the safer bet. If Wiadi does flip Jackdaw, we get a *very* likely Magpie!Terra on Day 3.

That being said, I'll be placing my steal on Terra come Nighttime, and I would highly advise everyone else to steal elsewhere, including Ravens and Jackdaws. On the off-chance that Terra is *not* the Magpie, we still need to ensure that the real Magpie has the lowest possible chance of retaining any of their Shiny Things.

That being said. . . @mesonoxian if you are lying about your initial claim, now would be the time to speak up, as we have our votes between two candidates now.
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I feel like I'm not understanding the logic here. Would you mind elaborating a bit when you get a chance?
 
QTesseract said:
I feel like I'm not understanding the logic here. Would you mind elaborating a bit when you get a chance?
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Since mesonoxian and I both claim to have stolen from Terrabrand, and I was the only one to have received a Shiny Thing (as corroborated by Shadell, who stole said Shiny Thing from me), this means that Terrabrand could only have possibly had one Shiny Thing by the time I stole from him, and mesonoxian therefore would be somewhere after me in the Pecking Order, assuming he is telling the truth about his steal.

Because of this, there is no possible way for a Magpie!Terra to have three Shiny Things after the end of Night 2, meaning if he is in fact the Magpie, it is actually safer for us to take Wiadi first, in order to generate concrete evidence to resolve Terra's slot.

On top of this, we will know if the Magpie has any Shiny Things at the end of this Day, meaning if a Magpie shows as having at least one Shiny Thing, we know with 100% certainty that Terrabrand is not the Magpie, and that we need to be prioritizing our steals in someone that is not Terrabrand, myself, Shadell, or mesonoxian (given the corroborations on this steal chain, there is no possible way for any of us to be Magpie in this case, and meso fits nicely within these boundaries since it is rather likely that he attempted a steal after me).

Add in Rayday as the Raven spokesperson, and you have 5/14 players we know are not the Magpie (if Rayday were to be counter-claimed, this whole play would be washed away in favor of pecking between CCs), where we can much more easily coordinate against the Magpie.

Hopefully I explained this well enough for you to understand.
 
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