CTRosen
Rock Man
- Location
- Northwest PA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Okay yeah TMR is our best choice Today
[Mafia] A Murder of Crows
- Thread starter InterstellarHobo
- Start date
- Mafia
-
- Tags
- mafia
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
Just to check: are you suggesting that they stole independently, and that the accounts match up? Or that mesonoxian is the Raven that stole from Terrabrand with no result?
CTRosen
Rock Man
- Location
- Northwest PA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
It could be either or. I just think that the fact that the accounts do match makes it more likely that he is Raven here.
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
I dunno- it'd be pretty clumsy/short-sighted for the Ravens to reveal a failed theft both independently and through Rayday, as without another player also claiming to have attempted the steal it'd be like pointing a big arrow at the lone player making the claim that says 'I am suspicious' (as demonstrated by your suspicion that meso is a Raven). Unless of course it's a double-bluff, with them counting on us thinking that and exonerating meso on the grounds that it's too obvious a slip for them to make, but at that point you can start to get recursive and go into triple and quadruple bluffs which isn't helpful.
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
I think it's safe in any event to say that meso is more likely to resolve as Raven, Not Magpie than TMR is.
Because it's in Meso's general play range and the advice I gave him literally last game to make the open town play of admitting to stealing from me, and because Basically Confirmed Raven Rayday is suspecting TMR over Meso.
That doesn't prove meso is raven and I ain't pushing for a claim at this juncture, I already gut read TMR as Current Most Probable Magpie. Doubly so since Wiadi hasn't tried to direct me to vote other than TMR as his proving ie he's probably not a jackdaw unless Wiadi is actually the magpie.
For the record I'm not guaranteeing Wiadi's survival long term but I think it's transparently pro magpie play to push for him as the lead wagon even in the circumstance that he is a jackdaw, so I am a bit sketchy on meso as well.
Like. We can politics out whether Wiadi is a priority lynch on any given cycle or if we go raven hunting or what when the magpie is dead. He can't nuke us all from orbit pre day 8 by Magpie Magic, unless of course making him the lead wagon on paper will kill him.
Unless someone thinks they see a flaw in my gameplan, I'm sticking to that as the priority.
Because it's in Meso's general play range and the advice I gave him literally last game to make the open town play of admitting to stealing from me, and because Basically Confirmed Raven Rayday is suspecting TMR over Meso.
That doesn't prove meso is raven and I ain't pushing for a claim at this juncture, I already gut read TMR as Current Most Probable Magpie. Doubly so since Wiadi hasn't tried to direct me to vote other than TMR as his proving ie he's probably not a jackdaw unless Wiadi is actually the magpie.
For the record I'm not guaranteeing Wiadi's survival long term but I think it's transparently pro magpie play to push for him as the lead wagon even in the circumstance that he is a jackdaw, so I am a bit sketchy on meso as well.
Like. We can politics out whether Wiadi is a priority lynch on any given cycle or if we go raven hunting or what when the magpie is dead. He can't nuke us all from orbit pre day 8 by Magpie Magic, unless of course making him the lead wagon on paper will kill him.
Unless someone thinks they see a flaw in my gameplan, I'm sticking to that as the priority.
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Hm. Do we have any specific evidence against TMR or is it just gut? 'cause personally I find meso's move there pretty suspect.
[X] Peck Mesonoxian
Throwing this down until/unless new evidence emerges (at least to my subjective viewpoint).
[X] Peck Mesonoxian
Throwing this down until/unless new evidence emerges (at least to my subjective viewpoint).
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I'm sorry, I'm kind of distracted, I am trying to get in all the paperwork to get back on my regular work schedule today (had to prove I didn't have covid after a nasty bout of something respiratory), so I am not giving the game as much attention as I normally would. Am I correct in thinking that my vote on Wiadi is useful for setting up Terra's plan?
If not, I'll go ahead and pull it off.
My feeling is just that I see very little way Wiadi could be a crow, so there's no real down side to them being eliminated in the abstract, but I'd much prefer to catch the magpie than any other non-crow today and take the threat of an early game end off the table.
If not, I'll go ahead and pull it off.
My feeling is just that I see very little way Wiadi could be a crow, so there's no real down side to them being eliminated in the abstract, but I'd much prefer to catch the magpie than any other non-crow today and take the threat of an early game end off the table.
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Unless he's your jackdaw mate (not asking mind) he's the only one not getting any specific factional support right now as I recall.
Rayday is raven claim and seems to prefer a TMR lynch to meso lynch, which could be soft evidence meso is raven, and is more definite evidence TMR is not.
Put another way, from your perspective TMR could be crow or magpie, unless you know him to be jackdaw.
Use your judgement though.
- Location
- United States
I'm sorry but I don't know where you're getting this, I've never said anything about TMR other than that his voting made me have to correct myself. Honestly, going off gut feeling I think I'd prefer a meso lynch over a TMR lynch. One of the other Ravens convinced me pretty well that TMR's not the Magpie.
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
...how? TMR's part of the 'just kinda there' group of players, who doesn't have any real posting presence in the thread. There's nothing really suspicious in their behaviour that I can see, but also nothing that really removes suspicion from them.
- Location
- United States
One of the others tried to steal from him and came up empty so he's either not the Magpie or he didn't/failed to steal at all. That plus the fact that he pushed on meso because he at least thought he was pushing away from hunting the Magpie makes me think that TMR is a little too focused on hunting the Magpie to be the Magpie playing pretend.
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Failed theft is good info but for the record, this doesn't seem like very good evidence. If anything, I'd expect the Magpie to be downright eager to appear invested in Magpie-hunting as a cover - and note that voting meso for insufficient zeal in Magpie-hunting presents an alternate peck target to either myself or TMR, which Magpie!TMR would also benefit from doing.
All of which is a longwinded way of saying "it's wine at best."
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
Mmm... as I mentioned earlier, I half-suspect the Magpie deliberately went for targets they knew wouldn't have shinies last night, in order to avoid exposing themselves for exactly that reason. So I wouldn't call that hugely convincing. The push onto meso also doesn't really make them extremely focused- their post count on the topic (and in general) is just too low to call them that. I'd call it soft evidence at best, and certainly not enough to absolve TMR from suspicion.
- Location
- United States
Hm, yeah you have a point when you say that it's wine, but it's the same 'brand' of wine that there is for a few others that was mentioned earlier (where a whiff on them means either that they're not the Magpie or are a shinyless Magpie that can be ignored for a day). All I can say is that rather than deliberate over the wine I'm going to go with my gut and in the worst case scenario I can make sure a Raven stays on him if it's revealed at end of Day than the Magpie is still alive and has no Shiny Things.
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Sure, but remember, a Magpie who has no Shiny Things is a Magpie we don't have to worry about for this specific day.
Oh, no, like I said, the failed theft is good info - and you'll note that my vote is currently on meso, not TMR. I'm just noting that the "seems too focused on Magpie-hunting" thing isn't a strong argument on its own merits.
- Location
- United States
Oh okay, sorry I must have misread the tone of your previous post.
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
no yeah being 'focused on magpie hunting' as such is like. noise. nobody is gonna expect you to suspect yourself, you've got no teammates, etc.
Like people providing evidence that clears other people of magpie-ness have some decent Not Magpie cred, because that hurts the magpie, but going 'this guy looks magpie-ish, doesn't he??' is not at all alignment indicative.
… I'm not doing a good job keeping up with discussion atm, but I'm just gonna be a little lazy and go 'you all know I'm not the magpie based on the collective words of others so I kinda CAN just go with the flow right now'.
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
like going with the flow is not HOW I want to play but I'm not a realistic lynch possibility so I can put it off and try to get into the swing more later.
- Location
- United States
Day phase 2, 27ish hours, I'm a Raven, and just about everyone is hunting the Magpie.
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
- Pronouns
- Any