Attempting to Subvert the Plan: Dominion Edition

Retcon: Should General Horner (the MC) have been The Magistrate (Starcraft 1 PC)?

  • Yes

    Votes: 35 43.8%
  • No

    Votes: 29 36.3%
  • This does not matter to me

    Votes: 16 20.0%

  • Total voters
    80
  • Poll closed .
One is better then none though.
If it diverts effort between different projects and makes it harder to finish either in a timely manner, it may not be.

Remember, one of the big things we hope to avoid is scenarios where we are, say, 50-100 points away from completing a project phase on the turn it's due. Because then we wind up having to overinvest dice in that one thing to rush-complete it. Diverting dice away from the Dylarian shipyards now increases the risk of us having to do that later.
 
holding up a giant banner that says "our government sucks but its still better than the Kel-Moiran Combine!"
 
It'll take roughly an average of 11 dice to complete the Shipyards, it's basically going to be our main project in HI until it's done, and we'd be pretty foolish to leave a bunch of dice progress needed in Q4 considering failing it would be something of a disaster. I'm investing 5 dice in it this turn, and six (SALOME, thanks) next turn, and maybe tossing some free-dice on the Mines to get those done to leave Q4 for NIM and other stuff.
Only 8-9 though if you take a turn to get phase three SCVs which is actually a pretty nice pickup in terms of discounts.
My plan is gonna invest 4 in the Dylarian shipyards this turn and 5 into SCVs, to get the ball rolling quickly on the shipyards and have an 80% chance to get the discount for next turn, which will let our 6 HI dice (thanks SALOME) do it without any further free dice investment. If the SCVs fail, then we're probably gonna see it autocomplete in Q4 or something, but we'll also se a lot of other minor space projects become really cheap or need only a single die to cherry tap them to completion.

[] Plan Readying the SCVs for Reconstruction
-[] Infrastructure (6/6 dice, 35R)
--[] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 51/400 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 3) 114/400 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Tyrador IX: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 2) 66/200 (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Heavy Industry (5/5+4 free dice, 90R)
--[] Dylar IV: Dylarian Shipyards (Phase 2) 22/600 (4 dice, 40R)
--[] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 3) 73/300 (5 dice, 50R)
-[] Light Industry (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Korhal: Canis Chemical Refinery (Phase 1) 0/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Mar Sara: Endureum Extraction Operations (Phase 1) 67/300 (4 dice, 40R)
-[] Environmental (5/5 dice, 35R)
--[] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 2) [NEW] 11/100 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Dylar IV: Shipyard Amenities 22/250 (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Services (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) 281/400 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hospital 98/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Port Bennet Interplanetary Aerospace Complex 0/600 (3 die, 30R)
-[] Military (6/6 dice, 55R)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 2) 244/300 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Brontes: Fort Riley Orbital Training Center 41/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] TRUSTrooper Recruitment Program [TRUST] 0/400 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Vardona: Treasury Reserve Site Alpha [TRUST] 141/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Fort Sumner Forward Operating Base 0/200 (1 die, 10R)
-[] Research (5/5 dice, 60R)
--[] High-Efficiency Conduits [Tech] 109/200 (2 die, 30R)
--[] Hercules-class Superheavy Cargo Freighter 0/350 (3 dice 30R)
-[] Bureaucracy (5/5 dice, 55R)
--[] Establish the Office of Forecasts and Trends 0/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Services/Administration/Logistics/Operations Mechanization Endeavor 233/300 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Veterans' Benefits Program [MANDATORY] 39/400 (2 dice, 30R)
-[] Personal (1/1 + 1 Free, 50F)
--[] Vardona: Vardonaville Import-Export Company DC80 (2 dice, 30F)
--[] Nephor II: Worker Aid Centers DC 80 (2 dice 20F)
 
The inspector office needs to be done sometime soon we got no idea how much corruption we don't endorse is going about and if some are trying to kill us for our treasury spot.
 
[] Plan Readying the SCVs for Reconstruction
-[] Infrastructure (6/6 dice, 35R)
--[] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 51/400 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 3) 114/400 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Tyrador IX: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 2) 66/200 (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Heavy Industry (5/5+4 free dice, 90R)
--[] Dylar IV: Dylarian Shipyards (Phase 2) 22/600 (4 dice, 40R)
--[] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 3) 73/300 (5 dice, 50R)
-[] Light Industry (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Korhal: Canis Chemical Refinery (Phase 1) 0/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Mar Sara: Endureum Extraction Operations (Phase 1) 67/300 (4 dice, 40R)
-[] Environmental (5/5 dice, 35R)
--[] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 2) [NEW] 11/100 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Dylar IV: Shipyard Amenities 22/250 (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Services (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) 281/400 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hospital 98/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Port Bennet Interplanetary Aerospace Complex 0/600 (3 die, 30R)
-[] Military (6/6 dice, 55R)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 2) 244/300 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Brontes: Fort Riley Orbital Training Center 41/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] TRUSTrooper Recruitment Program [TRUST] 0/400 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Vardona: Treasury Reserve Site Alpha [TRUST] 141/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Fort Sumner Forward Operating Base 0/200 (1 die, 10R)
-[] Research (5/5 dice, 60R)
--[] High-Efficiency Conduits [Tech] 109/200 (2 die, 30R)
--[] Hercules-class Superheavy Cargo Freighter 0/350 (3 dice 30R)
-[] Bureaucracy (5/5 dice, 55R)
--[] Establish the Office of Forecasts and Trends 0/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Services/Administration/Logistics/Operations Mechanization Endeavor 233/300 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Veterans' Benefits Program [MANDATORY] 39/400 (2 dice, 30R)
-[] Personal (1/1 + 1 Free, 50F)
--[] Vardona: Vardonaville Import-Export Company DC80 (2 dice, 30F)
--[] Nephor II: Worker Aid Centers DC 80 (2 dice 20F)

I'm a huge fan of this. It has pretty much all the things I want - including the Hercules! My only "hmmm?" is the Worker Aid Centers. I was wondering if you were interested in changing it to the TRUST pilot corp thing. Oh, my only immediate question is what is the Paranoia result of this because that does kind of matter in a general sense.
 
After rejecting the latest proposal for a sharknado dispersal protocol to revitalize korhal's aquatic wildlife, the emperor now worries chuck may be serious about orbital drop bears.
 
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It neglects the big Special project, and I think it puts too much focus on the Plan part and too little focus on the "Subvert the" part. Also the focus on getting to six base Personal dice isn't terrible per se, but it adds costs we can't afford to pay at the moment in a way that five doesn't. I mean, though this is admittedly also me valuing Personal enough that I think any plan should always spend 1-2 Free Dice on personal every turn.
 
I'm a huge fan of this. It has pretty much all the things I want - including the Hercules! My only "hmmm?" is the Worker Aid Centers. I was wondering if you were interested in changing it to the TRUST pilot corp thing. Oh, my only immediate question is what is the Paranoia result of this because that does kind of matter in a general sense.
I'm doing Worker Aid centers because it unlocks another Personal die, which, you know, seems like a nice thing to have with all this budget we have to throw funding around at.

As for the 'big special project' I'm not as enthused about it? Like, it unlocks a legacy trait, but we've only been around for 8 turns. I feel that any legacy, at this point, is about as deep as a mudpuddle.
 
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As an aside I really like the descriptions in the turn result. The description of how the Treasury Complex, both its main building and the parks around it, is great. As is the Chancellor's Mansion that we live in. Speaking of that, we lived in a battlefield tent for the season, which is pretty awesome.

Also, I would like to once again please request that everyone think strongly on us doing the Hercules-class super freighter. It will be a nice addition to our developments!
 
[] Plan: Attempting to Solve the Real Bad Problems
-[] INFRASTRUCTURE (6 dice, 35 Resources)

--[] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 3) [MANDATORY] [NEW] (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Tyrador IX: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 2) [Reconstruction] (2 dice, 10R)
--[] Mar Sara: Planetary Resettlement (Phase 1) (2 dice, 10R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Supply Bunker Construction (Phase 2) (1 die, 5R)
-[] Heavy Industry (5 dice, +1 Free, 85 Resources)
--[] Dylar IV: Dylarian Shipyards (Phase 2) [Reconstruction] (1 die, 10R)
--[] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 3) [NEW] (3 dice, 45R)
--[] Nephor II: TerraUnion Tool and Die Works (Phase 3) [NEW] (2 dice, 30R)
-[] Light And Chemical Industry (5 dice, 35 Resources)
--[] Mar Sara: Endureum Extraction Operations (Phase 1) (3 dice, 15R)
--[] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextiles Fabrication Plant (Phase 3) (2 dice, 20R)
-[] Environmental (5 dice, 35 Resources)
--[] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 2) [NEW] (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Dylar IV: Shipyard Amenities (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Services (5 dice, +1 free, 45 Resources)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) (3 dice, 30R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hostpital [MANDATORY] (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Military (6 dice, 55 Resources)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 2) (3 die, 30R)
--[] Vardona: Treasury Reserve Site Alpha [TRUST] (1 dice, 5R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Fort Sumner Forward Operating Base [MANDATORY] [NEW] (2 dice, 20R)
-[] Research (5 dice, 55 Resources)
--[] High-Efficiency Conduits [Tech] (1 die, 15R)
--[] Hercules-class Superheavy Cargo Freighter [NEW] (4 dice, 40R)
-[] Bureaucracy (5 dice, 45 Resources)
--[] Services/Administration/Logistics/Operations Mechanization Endeavor(2 dice, 20R)
--[] Veterans' Benefits Program [MANDATORY] (1 die, 15R)
--[] Team-Building Exercise (2 dice, 10R)
-[] Personal (4 dice, +2 Free, 70 Funds)
--[] Vardona: Vardonaville Import-Export Company (4 dice, 60 F)
--[] Team-Building Exercise (2 dice, 10F)

Squeaking in at 390: I've underlined the promises we have to fulfill(Mengsk's promises are ours.)

We finish our obligations and prepare the war machine while trying to save as many of our loyalists from the frontlines as possible. If we're really good at that, boss'll give us just as many problems as if we fucked up.
 
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-[] Services (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) 281/400 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hospital 98/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Port Bennet Interplanetary Aerospace Complex 0/600 (3 die, 30R)
Vehrec, I like your plan overall, and indeed I like it better than any of the others I've seen.

But my one big concern is that I think we really do need to push the Angustia yards harder than this. We're getting constant explicit and subtextual hints that lack of civilian spacelift capability really is one of our big economic problems, and we need at least two dice, preferably three, to have any reasonable hope of finishing Angustia Phase 2 this turn.

I'm also a bit concerned that your plan may have too high a Paranoia balance, but I'm not sure about that and haven't run the numbers. So this is just me saying "did you throw in enough -Paranoia to roughly balance the +Paranoia," not me saying "you didn't do that."

The inspector office needs to be done sometime soon we got no idea how much corruption we don't endorse is going about
...Why is this our primary problem, exactly? It's not stopping us from completing projects. The budget is more or less adequate. Corruption is bad, don't get me wrong, but our own long term hopes of survival themselves hinge on the corruption existing as a background fog to hide our own activities aimed against Mengsk's regime.

and if some are trying to kill us for our treasury spot.
...why do you think this a realistic concern?

Mengsk isn't a good guy, but in his defense, he doesn't run his government by Klingon promotion rules. The most likely consequence of some underling in Treasury murdering his old war buddy Chuck is that said underling gets dropped into a volcano or fed to Zerglings, not that he gets the job of Chancellor.

[] Plan: Attempting to Solve the Real Bad Problems
-[] INFRASTRUCTURE (6 dice, 35 Resources)

--[] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 3) [MANDATORY] [NEW] (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Tyrador IX: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 2) [Reconstruction] (2 dice, 10R)
--[] Mar Sara: Planetary Resettlement (Phase 1) (2 dice, 10R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Supply Bunker Construction (Phase 2) (1 die, 5R)
You talk about focusing on "finishing obligations," but you're only spending two dice on planetary reconstruction.

It seems pretty likely that the reconstruction projects are really big, that they run both wide and deep. It's not a good idea for us to be starting the resettlement of Mar Sara when we don't even know how many [Reconstruction] projects we're already committed to doing in Infrastructure to the nearest 1000 Progress.

-[] Heavy Industry (5 dice, +1 Free, 85 Resources)
--[] Dylar IV: Dylarian Shipyards (Phase 2) [Reconstruction] (1 die, 10R)
--[] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 3) [NEW] (3 dice, 45R)
--[] Nephor II: TerraUnion Tool and Die Works (Phase 3) [NEW] (2 dice, 30R)
This light investment in the Dylarian shipyards puts us in an awkward position in Q3 and Q4, because we're going to have to race like mad bastards to finish the project, even with the cost reductions from SCVs.

-[] Services (5 dice, +1 free, 45 Resources)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) (3 dice, 30R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hostpital [MANDATORY] (3 dice, 15R)
It's probably a bad idea to throw three dice at this when there's so much else in Services that needs doing.

-[] Military (6 dice, 55 Resources)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 2) (3 die, 30R)
--[] Vardona: Treasury Reserve Site Alpha [TRUST] (1 dice, 5R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Fort Sumner Forward Operating Base [MANDATORY] [NEW] (2 dice, 20R)
Do we really need three dice on Refloating the Fleet? The project's already fairly close to completion.
 
Also four dice on the Export company is incredibly costly and rather pointless, to be honest. It's a DC 80 and we have +1 per dice and an Omake bonus of +15 if we need it.

...also it costs 15 F per die.
 
Vehrec, I like your plan overall, and indeed I like it better than any of the others I've seen.

But my one big concern is that I think we really do need to push the Angustia yards harder than this. We're getting constant explicit and subtextual hints that lack of civilian spacelift capability really is one of our big economic problems, and we need at least two dice, preferably three, to have any reasonable hope of finishing Angustia Phase 2 this turn.

I'm also a bit concerned that your plan may have too high a Paranoia balance, but I'm not sure about that and haven't run the numbers. So this is just me saying "did you throw in enough -Paranoia to roughly balance the +Paranoia," not me saying "you didn't do that."
I don't know if the paranoia balance is good or not, but for Angustia, I'm pushing for the SCVs to finish it for us. See, with the SCV bonus, that project drops from 281+progress/400 to 281+progress/300. And I consider it not fully productive until the Hercules is done, which is a 2 turn project at least.

ETA: Likely Paranoia gain is about +30, with -15 from projects and -5 from cover-ups. But then we run into -15 from Dylarian shipyards soon and Fort Riley's another -10.
 
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I don't know if the paranoia balance is good or not, but for Angustia, I'm pushing for the SCVs to finish it for us. See, with the SCV bonus, that project drops from 281+progress/400 to 281+progress/300.
What are the odds of the Ardunin Phase 3 completing next turn and giving us those SCVs to begin with?

And I consider it not fully productive until the Hercules is done, which is a 2 turn project at least.
We need more space cargo shipping much too badly to be fussy about whether we're building Hercules-class freighters in particular or existing freighters of the many types that no doubt already exist. Anything is much better than nothing, so getting Angustia Phase 2 rolled out pronto is important.

ETA: Likely Paranoia gain is about +30, with -15 from projects and -5 from cover-ups. But then we run into -15 from Dylarian shipyards soon and Fort Riley's another -10.
Personally, I prefer to do detailed breakdowns of Paranoia based on chances of success (for instance, three projects that all have a 60% chance of -5 Paranoia each do not count as -15 likely Paranoia, but as -9, on average). But I don't ask anyone to do that for themselves because it's a pain in the butt to AnyDice up the probabilities of project completion successes. I may have time to do it by hand later.
 
You talk about focusing on "finishing obligations," but you're only spending two dice on planetary reconstruction.
My priority is getting all the Real Bads to Bad- Tyrador's Real Bad is Transport, and haulage is a sector-wide problem.

It seems pretty likely that the reconstruction projects are really big, that they run both wide and deep. It's not a good idea for us to be starting the resettlement of Mar Sara when we don't even know how many [Reconstruction] projects we're already committed to doing in Infrastructure to the nearest 1000 Progress.
Workers will have to live there when we get extraction up and running, which is why we got them water, but we aren't fighting creep yet so it's fine.

This light investment in the Dylarian shipyards puts us in an awkward position in Q3 and Q4, because we're going to have to race like mad bastards to finish the project, even with the cost reductions from SCVs.
It's better to do SCVs, tools, and neotextiles now because of how autocomplete works, and we're getting more dice and a mystery box.

It's probably a bad idea to throw three dice at this when there's so much else in Services that needs doing.
Haulage of people and freight is Real Bad; I assume goods and services aren't circulating. Also, we'll have lots of military shit going that'll steal up freight.

Do we really need three dice on Refloating the Fleet? The project's already fairly close to completion.
Yeah, fair enough.
 
[] Plan Readying the future war ecomony
-[] Infrastructure (6/6 dice, 35R)
--[] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 51/400 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Supply Bunker Construction (Phase 2) 66/200 (3 dice, 15R)
--[] Tyrador IX: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 2) 66/200 (2 dice, 10R)
-[] Heavy Industry (5/5+4 free dice, 85R)
--[] Dylar IV: Dylarian Shipyards (Phase 2) 22/600 (4 dice, 40R)
--[] Korhal: Keresh Mining Complex (Phase 2) Progress 14/100 (1 dice, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Simonson Munitions Factory (Phase 1) [NEW] 0/300 (2 dice 10R)
--[] Nephor II: Dynamic Integrated Arms Factory (Phase 1) 0/200 (2 dice 30R)
-[] Light Industry (5/5 dice, 30R)
--[] Korhal: Canis Chemical Refinery (Phase 1) 0/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Mar Sara: Endureum Extraction Operations (Phase 1) 67/300 (4 dice, 40R)
-[] Environmental (5/5 dice, 35R)
--[] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 2) [NEW] 11/100 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Dylar IV: Shipyard Amenities 22/250 (3 dice, 15R)
-[] Services (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) 281/400 (2 die, 20R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hospital 98/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Korhal: Primary Resocialization Center [NEW] 0/400, (2 die, 20R)
-[] Military (6/6 dice, 55R)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 2) 244/300 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Brontes: Fort Riley Orbital Training Center 41/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Fort Davis Military Arsenal
0/200 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Fort Sumner Forward Operating Base 0/200 (2 die, 20R)
-[] Research (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Improved Threat-Recognition Protocol [TECH] 0/250 (2 die, 20R)
--[] Hercules-class Superheavy Cargo Freighter 0/350 (3 dice 30R)
-[] Bureaucracy (5/5 dice, 70R)
--[] Vardona: Trevelyan Commercial Tower (Extravagant) [NEW] 0/300 (2 die, 30R)
--[]Services/Administration/Logistics/Operations Mechanization Endeavor 233/300 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Veterans' Benefits Program [MANDATORY] 39/400 (2 dice, 30R)
-[] Personal (1/1 + 1 Free, 50F)
--[] Nova Squadron: Divert Neotextiles Output [NEW] DC 40 -15F per die(2 dice, 30F)
--[] Space Wolves: Fort Romulus Amenities [NEW]DC 40 (2 dice 30F)

If anyone see a problem with the math say it please math is not my strong point

And for my choices well i hope it is self explaining instead of investment in our private army i opt to invest in the Dominion military forces and seeing Mengsk is planning to humble the Kel-Morians we better make sure it is a overwhelming quick one

Better to be a strong unified region before the UED and swarm invasions then be a mess

The cost would be 470

Edit: updated the math hopefully it is good
 
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What are the odds of the Ardunin Phase 3 completing next turn and giving us those SCVs to begin with?
80%, six dice would only be a 13% increase. I'm comfortable with the 4/5ths chance of

We need more space cargo shipping much too badly to be fussy about whether we're building Hercules-class freighters in particular or existing freighters of the many types that no doubt already exist. Anything is much better than nothing, so getting Angustia Phase 2 rolled out pronto is important.
Keeping in mind, we also have planetary transport to worry about which-oh yeah, I do reconstruction towards that too.

Personally, I prefer to do detailed breakdowns of Paranoia based on chances of success (for instance, three projects that all have a 60% chance of -5 Paranoia each do not count as -15 likely Paranoia, but as -9, on average). But I don't ask anyone to do that for themselves because it's a pain in the butt to AnyDice up the probabilities of project completion successes. I may have time to do it by hand later.
I mean, I was thinking about doing a Derpmind style probability acordion for this quest, but the number of weird bonuses makes that a little tricky. And I'm not a fan of 'detailed breakdowns' because we get our paranoia in big quantized blocks, not dribbled out over the project's length. It's either +10 or +20 or +30, not +19.
 
Going to war is an absolutely terrible idea. Even if we did win quickly, we'd be in a position of having to actually garrison Kel-moria and keep production going in the face of a likely insurgency, thinning out defences when we absolutely cannot afford to. It's frankly madness, especially when we know ooc that the UED are coming

Which means this is the most sensible option for Mengsk's Dominion! Truly in character. :V
 
My priority is getting all the Real Bads to Bad- Tyrador's Real Bad is Transport, and haulage is a sector-wide problem.
Honestly, that's an argument for leaning into Tyrador IX's reconstruction harder, because the current phase of the reconstruction project is focused around improving surface transportation by building new roads, railroads, and ports.

Two dice isn't going to cut it if we want to finish that phase of the project. Since no one's directly suffering for lack of resettlement on Mar Sara, and people are suffering from lack of good transportation and logistics on Tyrador IX, I'd rather consolidate on Tyrador IX.

Workers will have to live there when we get extraction up and running, which is why we got them water, but we aren't fighting creep yet so it's fine.
The extraction facilities themselves will contain enough habitat capability to do in the short term. We'll just be colonizing Mar Sara with facilities more like deep sea oil rigs at first, and building actual towns later.

It's better to do SCVs, tools, and neotextiles now because of how autocomplete works, and we're getting more dice and a mystery box.
We're getting to the point where investing heavily in construction equipment to reduce the length of the project becomes problematic if it means we don't start the project. I'm not saying we've crossed the line where it tips over into actively a bad idea, but I'm a bit worried that in our enthusiasm to build the tools to build the tools, we may forget to, y'know... actually build the tools.

-[] Heavy Industry (5/5+4 free dice, 85R)
--[] Dylar IV: Dylarian Shipyards (Phase 2) 22/600 (4 dice, 40R)
--[] Korhal: Keresh Mining Complex (Phase 2) Progress 14/100 (1 dice, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Simonson Munitions Factory (Phase 1) [NEW] 0/300 (2 dice 10R)
--[] Nephor II: Dynamic Integrated Arms Factory (Phase 1) 0/200 (2 dice 30R)
I think it might be better to consolidate dice here a bit. None of these projects are very likely to complete this turn because of how few dice are being invested in any one thing.

-[] Services (5/5 dice, 50R)
--[] Vardona: Angustia Orbital Shipyard Complex (Phase 2) 281/400 (2 die, 20R)
--[] Korhal: Katherine Mengsk Memorial Veterans' Hospital 98/200 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Korhal: Primary Resocialization Center [NEW] 0/400, (2 die, 20R)
Given that the resocialization center is going to be a giant atrocity machine for brainwashing convicts into loyal power-armored mooks, we might want to just... not... build that one. Lots of other stuff to do.

-[] Military (6/6 dice, 55R)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 2) 244/300 (1 die, 10R)
--[] Brontes: Fort Riley Orbital Training Center 41/200 (1 die, 5R)
--[] Korhal: Fort Davis Military Arsenal 0/200 (2 dice, 20R)
--[] Fringe Worlds: Fort Sumner Forward Operating Base 0/200 (2 die, 20R)
This is another area where we probably want to consolidate dice. Fort Riley won't complete with one die, and Fort Davis almost certainly won't complete with two.

And if you really want military strength, Refloating the Fleet could use two dice to be more sure of phase completion, because that's going to be a big step up in the Dominion's naval strength.

-[] Bureaucracy (5/5 dice, 70R)
--[] Vardona: Trevelyan Commercial Tower (Extravagant) [NEW] 0/300 (2 die, 30R)
--[]Services/Administration/Logistics/Operations Mechanization Endeavor 233/300 (1 dice, 10R)
--[] Veterans' Benefits Program [MANDATORY] 39/400 (2 dice, 30R)
SALOME is important enough that it's probably worth two dice, because just having better than a roughly 50/50 chance of completion next turn is worth it. Remember that if SALOME completes it means we can roll about eight more dice next turn than would otherwise be possible.

80%, six dice would only be a 13% increase.
Okay, 80% isn't too bad, yeah.

I mean, I was thinking about doing a Derpmind style probability acordion for this quest, but the number of weird bonuses makes that a little tricky. And I'm not a fan of 'detailed breakdowns' because we get our paranoia in big quantized blocks, not dribbled out over the project's length. It's either +10 or +20 or +30, not +19.
You're right, but the detailed breakdown gives a much better sense of the impact we're likely to see. A typical plan has something like half a dozen different elements, all with their own will-they-or-won't-they calculation. Deterministic models like "assume everything with a 50% or higher chance completes and nothing below that does" or "assume everything completes" or whatever will tend to totally fail to capture the difference between, say, a plan with three 30% chance of +10 Paranoia projects and something with three 1% chance of +10 Paranoia projects.

When in practice, that difference is about +10 Paranoia. It's kind of a big deal.

Actually weighting for completion probability doesn't tell you what the Paranoia number will be, granted, because it's literally impossible to calculate that anyway. What it does do is give you a rough sense of about where the needle is likely to be, in a way that appropriately factors in the difference between "we can't plausibly fail at this" projects, "coin toss" projects, and "vanishingly unlikely to actually happen" projects.
 
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