Attempting to Fulfill the Plan MNKh Edition

Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
[X] Plan Landing Zimyanin

[X] Plan Nuclear Assembly

Would rather not go into a potential political kerfuffle close to elections and right before the big oil crisis. And besides cant we use Zimyanin, like we did in the last turn, to pursue objectives and if it doesn't work or we start catching heat use him as a scapegoat. It's kinda win-win, and I don't think he has the capability to rise as an independent political threat on his own, and if he gets hooked on support from the stalinists and parts of the coalition, then whether he wants to or not he becomes their man.
 
[X] Plan Landing Zimyanin
[X] Plan Knifing Zimyanin

Edit - changed mind and went for orbital approach instead. Plan name confused me and I thought this was consolidation with Zimyamin.
 
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Looks like I concede on the dice allocations...

[X] Plan Orbital Rendezvous
[X] Plan Landing Zimyanin

I for one am desperate to see our orbital rendezvous brainworms defeated. That, and I don't want to just yeet spent nuclear reactors into the surface of the moon. We still have the Orbital Operations project using nuclear tugs, so not like a []Separated Lander will let atomic rocket engines stagnate. Still, as I often do for big space things I'll ping @fasquardon in case they can spot any other big details in these plans.
 
To be clear, the one thing at this point that could stall nuclear engine development would be if it failed in our early manned program. In which case that could cause substantial political blow back against using 'experimental' rocket technologies. And could easily cause a need for a total redesign and setback of the entire program for a decade.

It's one of the reasons I kind of think it's not the best idea to have the very first thing you do is push this not fully stable reactor to a manned mission. I guess the dice roll will potentially determine what exactly happens there, so in this case, hope you don't roll low I guess?
 
I really enjoyed the duality of the party poking a stick at the unemployed, alongside all the little blurbs of like "energy is so cheap now that it's killing nuclear power" and "There are too many high paying jobs now and it's wrecking our old industries". Especially the bits about how our state owned stores are cutting back on some profitability in towns and villages to keep the local economy sustainable and growing.

[X] Plan Nuclear Assembly
 
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Once derivative roads are fully funded, paving of direct population facing roads can start at scale, modernizing the countryside to a state that would be adequate for the Union of 1970.

So even if we finished all the road projects next turn, we would still be a decade behind where we need to be.

And if we finish all the road projects at the end of next plan, we'd be 15 years behind.

And we are currently 20 years behind, so we should have had today's road network in 1960.

It is at this point considered a national priority to work with the Austrialians so as to import coal into the Black sea.

!

So we need to import coal from Australia despite the supplies of cheap coal we have coming from Siberia. That's sure something. I wonder if this is due to not having enough metallurgical coal coming from Siberia, or because we don't have enough transportation capacity yet?

(If I were to guess, it would be the latter.)

In view of this, we probably don't need to be shy about the electrification of our steel industry, if we ever get the electrical headroom to do this. Turn Siberian coal into electricity and use electricity to make steel.

Coming to an electronics store near you on February 21st 1980, the Iskra integrated desktop computer! Now with a cassette reader, 45x30 character color display, 4-12 KB RAM, and a fast K6806VS 1.1 MHz CPU. External storage capacity is available for a nominal fee, allowing programs to be kept on a discrete floppy compatible drive. Peripherals are available both as discrete units, with an expansion card paired with a device, or universal expansion cards with standard ports for expanded graphical, storage, or workplace use. A software compiler is included as standard alongside basic programs on two additional casetes with further options offered for office use.
-Dec 1979 Iskra, The Iskra Computer

This sounds pretty comparable to the Apple II - slightly better display and a lower amount of maximum RAM (the Apple II ranged from 4k to 48k). That's better than I thought we'd be doing - the OTL Apple II launched in June of 1977, so us having a computer this good launched only a year behind is very good. It puts us significantly ahead of anyone who didn't have Steve Wozniak on their payroll in this period of OTL.

Of course, TTL the Americans might be even further ahead, but last we heard about where their cutting edge was, it was about where the OTL cutting edge was.

The difference in optimism between the action description and results description is jarring. I can not tell which one is Balakirev speaking, but unless the reevaulation about the future of nuclear happened literally in the middle of this year it gives the impression of some significant confusion in the ministry.

Meh. We'll see how things look after the next plan. River Reversal will drop coal prices, but I sure do not see the gas industry collapsing any time soon with how demand is rocketing.

Well spotted.

I wonder if massive investments into coal gassification would help? If lots of coal was being used to meet oil demand, it should support coal prices some... But probably another megaproject isn't the answer.

As for the vote, I definitely back Modify Recoverability Information - the other options are worse, and triggering a crisis now is, well, probably as good a time as any.

Balakirev's decisive nature could get some mileage out of an oil crisis during an election year, I am sure.

I am strongly in favor of Prioritize Internal Unity - Balakirev's personality makes anything else non-viable IMO (an alliance would be undermined by Bala's ambition, putting struggles on hold would be undermined by his decisiveness). We should continue to lean into Bala's status as the grim reaper of Soviet politics.

And as has been said already, a smaller, more united political grouping is a better tool - we need a sharp scalpel, not an unwieldy hammer that is actively fighting against Bala's efforts at doing political surgery.

As far as which dice pools to expand, I think that looking at the flavor text is important. This is not only a moment to pick our dice pools, it is a moment to shape how Balakirev thinks about the Soviet economy. And since this guy is going to become top dog or destroy himself trying, the effects of this choice will be reverberating for decades to come.

As such, I am quite dubious about Long Term Growth Emphasis - 4 infra and 2 HI dice are nice and all, but as far as HI goes, we are more often than not limited by resource costs or electricity availability. Also, this emphasis seems to prime Bala to push for an intensively coal-y future.

Stabilization of Infrastructure seems like a fairly safe option. The bubble it would cause in general labour prices would help get us through an oil crisis. Plus, we are a LONG way behind on roads and even once we catch up on those, we have a housing crisis in the wings, water projects to work on, we need to upgrade our airports. I would estimate at least two, if not three plans MINIMUM that we need all the infra we can get. And fixing the strait jacket of our road problems will help alot with improving productivity.

Support of Consumer Industries seems to be a decently strong path, but I am dubious that having so few infra dice will be wise.

Addressing the Labor Problem is IMO the best pick for preparing us for GenSec Balakirev. In the long run, pushing up general wages in a sustainable way is the key challenge. But the lack of infra dice makes me uncertain that this is a great way to go for the right now.

So at the moment I favor Stabilization of Infrastructure.

Now onto the bit that people might actually listen to me about, rocketry!

[]RLA-3 Minimal Stack: Combining a nuclear transit stage with an additional fuel reserve and a forward crew section, a series of RLA-3 launches can conduct a full lunar mission. The nuclear assembly will in effect perform the full transfer, orbit, and capture burn before being discarded into the lunar surface. The surface stack will in itself only need to land and perform the takeoff operation, placing down three men onto the surface before returning back as an integrated module. An assembly in LEO leaves the greatest chance for an abort, and as long as the hardware does not fail in the process it can form a viable route towards the moon. (-40 RpY)

[]Heavy Direct Lander: With the expectation that a 150 ton capable launch vehicle is developed a far heavier lander can be designed without much attention to alternative configurations. Orbital propellant depots introduce a significant technical vulnerability alongside several other factors compared to a sufficiently sized rocket. Criticism from the current engineers of a superheavy design can be ignored as a lunar landing is politically necessary, especially one conducted before the Americains. This will start the program while the LV is still being worked on, ensuring that a complete functional upper stage is made available by 1982 no matter the costs inherent to the project. (-50 RpY)

[]Separated Lander: Placing an immense technical risk on an orbital rendezvous promises to significantly lower the mass costs of any rocket platform and it can enable the use of two RLA-3 systems to achieve the launch profile without any new hardware. The lander itself will have to be more developed, but the Luna program has already somewhat pioneered the systems required to achieve a landing on the moon without issue. An initial transfer stage will be combined with a smaller upper stage vehicle that will remain in orbit while a single man lands on the surface to plant the flag. The achievement is meaningless in future capabilities but if the domestic program is to overtake American progress then radical measures must be taken. (-40 RpY)

The RLA-3 Minimal Stack is something we've had in mind for some time - if the big rocket doesn't work out, use a nuclear upper stage as a fallback option to win the moon race.

That our nuclear engine successfully managed to get a probe into Mercury orbit also bodes well for it being able to manage the far less challenging Lunar mission.
It also gets 3 men onto the Lunar surface, which is a decent payload.

This approach also involves an Earth orbit rendezvous, so going this way will synergize with our orbital depot efforts and the nuclear tug program, since if that program works (which it may not - pumping liquid hydrogen in microgravity is a tough engineering problem), we can change an EOR to a rendezvous with a tug at our propellant depot.

Crashing spent nuclear stages on the already toxic and irradiated Lunar surface is fine. Especially as our nuclear stages just don't have that much nuclear material.

The Heavy Direct Lander is a pure brute force approach. Our engineers absolutely can make a big dang rocket. This is the "burn political capital to get things done" Apollo approach.

This is probably the safest choice as far as achieving the Lunar base goal eventually, as we'd be burning money to overcome all obstacles, rather than trying to be clever. The downside is that 1982 may be too late, and in any case, developing a new rocket in only 3 years is extremely ambitious. So this route may be giving the Americans the upper hand.

Separated Lander is IMO politically non-viable - the race is for a Lunar base, meaning that landing first can easily be dismissed by the Americans. Also, after our great success in whipping up a political storm over the moon race, a mission that is so clearly propaganda-focused and that has such a limited capability is just not going to fly. This option is obviously not a brave drive towards the future.

Also, the single man Lunar lander won't really be useful as a lifeboat if we have to Apollo 13 a mission, and the one man going down to the moon on his own will have no help if he has an emergency. The safety margins aren't good.

On balance, I favor the RLA-3 Minimal Stack, though I do wonder if we should bite the bullet and go full Apollo on this. Rolling so high on "Publicize Space Targets" last turn means that the pressure in this moon race is higher than in the last one.

If I understand right: Our eggheads had a panic about how harmful lunar dust is, and failed to come up with a decent decontamination system, leading them to plan a mission around spacesuits being single use. That would be tolerable for Apollo-style missions, but if we want an actual long-term MOONBASE than this is a disaster. IDK what to do now... scrap it? Press onwards, and hope later research on the moondust will make our people decide they can re-use them after all?

No, I think you missunderstand - our eggheads tried to make a suit that wouldn't get much dust inside the airlock, due to most of the suit staying outside all the time, but felt that a hatch-backed suit would still get alot of dust inside. So they went "screw it, let's make this a problem for the base designers or the launch planners" and are saying the base should have an airlock that can scrub dust off the suits, or that suits should be treated as disposable items.

So our moon base will be more complicated than it would have been with a good roll.

Anyway, for my vote I'll approval vote one plan, and also introduce my own plan for more infra:

[X] Plan Knifing Zimyanin
-[X] RLA-3 Minimal Stack: (-40 RpY)
-[X]Modify Recoverability Information
-[X]Prioritize Internal Unity
-[X] Long Term Growth Emphasis (+4 Infrastructure Dice +2 Heavy Industry Dice)

[X] Plan I like big roads
-[X] RLA-3 Minimal Stack: (-40 RpY)
-[X]Modify Recoverability Information
-[X]Prioritize Internal Unity
-[X]Stabilization of Infrastructure (+6 Infrastructure Dice)

Regards,

fasquardon
 
To be clear, the one thing at this point that could stall nuclear engine development would be if it failed in our early manned program. In which case that could cause substantial political blow back against using 'experimental' rocket technologies. And could easily cause a need for a total redesign and setback of the entire program for a decade.

It's one of the reasons I kind of think it's not the best idea to have the very first thing you do is push this not fully stable reactor to a manned mission. I guess the dice roll will potentially determine what exactly happens there, so in this case, hope you don't roll low I guess?
The most likely failure mode of the nuclear rocket is that it we're forced to shut it down partway through the burn. That's a mission failure, but not in a way that would result in some blow back. Blow back would require something extremely dramatic to happen to the core, like a major power excursion. I don't think that's possible if our reactor designers are even vaguely competent. Worst case I could see happening is inability to shut the core down properly, but this would just require an abort in a similar manner as a shutdown. Maybe if the core failed to shut down, and there was some sort of control failure that prevented the crew from detaching from the nuclear stage and moving away from it.

But I can also conceive of accidents that would be as bad or worse for an alternate mission design. A nuclear rocket actually eliminates the biggest risk the transfer stage poses to the astronauts- that of an engine failure damaging the tanks and causing an explosion. No oxidzer, no big boom from tanks. Also just making a small, minimal craft gives me the hebbie-jebbies We don't want our designers to be forced to shave every possible kilogram off the spacecraft. That route is how we end up without backups for mission-critical equipment, or with introducing common mode failures. Yes, the nuclear rocket adds a component which is some level of risky. But it makes the overall mission profile easier, which makes everything else less risky.
 
This sounds pretty comparable to the Apple II - slightly better display and a lower amount of maximum RAM (the Apple II ranged from 4k to 48k). That's better than I thought we'd be doing - the OTL Apple II launched in June of 1977, so us having a computer this good launched only a year behind is very good. It puts us significantly ahead of anyone who didn't have Steve Wozniak on their payroll in this period of OTL.
Read the option closely- the Iskra will only be available to buy in 1980. So we're at least 2.5 years behind the OTL Americans. Still better than the 5 years that generally got thrown about though.

Thanks for the space input. I see you've lots of confidence in the nuclear stage. As for orbital rendezvous, I found it strange that the Minimal Stack didn't also make mention of technical challenges despite sounding like it needs multiple launches, but I figured the eggheads must have had SOME Sort of point when they only considered the Separate Launcher to be a unique rendezvous challenge.

And good point on the infra labor bubble- it'll take a decade at least to pop, by which point we should have much fewer other problems to deal with. As for HI dice, since everyone is primed for a CI focus next plan it seems we'll be running heavy gas power, so yeah no need to ramp coal up yet. OTOH, we don't know when the next opportunity to grab dice will come and grabbing two extra HI dice would mean we won't need to worry about using free dice on HI for a good while. Eh, I might review my vote tomorrow but for now:

[X] Plan Orbital Rendezvous
[X] Plan I like big roads

EDIT: Also
I wonder if massive investments into coal gassification would help? If lots of coal was being used to meet oil demand, it should support coal prices some... But probably another megaproject isn't the answer.
Given coal gassification plants are about the largest point-sources of CO2 you can get aside from power plants, doing that to save the nuclear program is pretty pointless. Really, we need to see where the shoes drop because predicting where coal and gas prices will be in 10 years time is reading tea leaves.
 
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Separated Lander is IMO politically non-viable - the race is for a Lunar base, meaning that landing first can easily be dismissed by the Americans. Also, after our great success in whipping up a political storm over the moon race, a mission that is so clearly propaganda-focused and that has such a limited capability is just not going to fly. This option is obviously not a brave drive towards the future.
I kind of viewed it differently. With this being a way to reach the Moon fast quickly, while meanwhile for the long term you're still say working on a superheavy, just you know not stupidly rushing it and probably cutting corners to try and get it done in 3-4 years.

As such this would be the option where you get to wave the flag first, and hopefully at the same time you started a super heavy program for the long term program. As extra plus this would prove out orbital rendezvous architectures, which would be a hangup the industry has some what developed.

As for the nuclear option, I really still don't like one is ramming the reactors as kinetic projectiles in to the Moon though. That sounds like they're going to be spots on maps in the future marked as radioactive no go zones, which is a bit of a black eye PR wise. But I guess most people really prefer pushing nuclear full ahead regardless of some drawbacks.



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On a separate note, it was nice to see MAKS proceeding fairly well in the meantime. Hopefully that completes some what well in the end. Maybe once it does the designers will come up with a supersonic launched space plane concept next, that would certainly be interesting to ponder.
 
[X] Plan I like big roads

And we got the input I've been waiting for. I'm going to uncomplicatedly agree good points were made all around.
 
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That sounds like they're going to be spots on maps in the future marked as radioactive no go zones, which is a bit of a black eye PR wise. But I guess most people really prefer pushing nuclear full ahead regardless of some drawbacks.
How much would these zones be different, radioactivity-wise, from the rest of the Lunar surface bathed in solar and cosmic radiation ?

This is a genuine question, I've tried to do napkin math but this is way above my head...
 
As for the nuclear option, I really still don't like one is ramming the reactors as kinetic projectiles in to the Moon though. That sounds like they're going to be spots on maps in the future marked as radioactive no go zones, which is a bit of a black eye PR wise. But I guess most people really prefer pushing nuclear full ahead regardless of some drawbacks.
Doesn't bother me at all tbh, the Moon already gets dosed with a Pripyat resident's worth of radiation every single month just from existing. Scattering a few more radiation sources in random craters on something as gigantic as the Moon won't really matter, especially since they'll be so small and hopefully either bury or scatter themselves on crashing to reduce it further. It's already a radioactive hellscape trying to kill you, and attempting to stay there is a very silly idea either way. For our purposes (and those of the next century probably) nobody is losing out on anything of value by adding another half a dozen radioactive craters to the huge ball of radioactive craters, which I might add we've already speckled with abandoned RTGs because nobody cares.
 
How much would these zones be different, radioactivity-wise, from the rest of the Lunar surface bathed in solar and cosmic radiation ?

This is a genuine question, I've tried to do napkin math but this is way above my head...
I'd expect that for awhile they'd basically no go zones, astronaut suit or not. Solar radiation tends mostly towards UV and alpha particles, which are far easier to block then the bit of gamma this would probably also produce.

which I might add we've already speckled with abandoned RTGs because nobody cares.
The RTG are contained though and would never have run nearly as hot as an actual live reactor. I basically consider the RTG near harmless really. One could just head over to those and collect them later on, they need not be a problem at all.


So there is a difference. Though I do agree, it's a pretty uninhabitable place, so it's a relative hazard. Just a few spots even worse then the rest. Still not the best of looks though.
 
This is a genuine question, I've tried to do napkin math but this is way above my head...
You'd need to start by determining what area the debris from a deorbiting nuclear reactor impact would spread over... I wouldn't know where to start there! Maybe approximate it as a solid iron mass of equivalent volume and use one of those asteroid impact calculators that float about?
 
What's people's issue with Zim? He has a lot of bad ideas yeah but so does Bala. I'd rather go for an option that preserves the stalinists as a political force without overly aiding either of the two, since while they aren't the best faction their better then most anyone on the right
To me what makes Zim so bad is that he reads completly as a reactionary. He doesn't care about communism nor care about how the economy works Zim wants power so he can roll back rights and make social mobility harder nothing more. Sure this makes him great to work with but then we are directly boosting a guy who wants women to be barred from higher posts in the union, wants to go harder on russification, and think we should begin closing the party again. All this under "protecting the union from capitalist infilitrators" a complete fabrication which he properly knows since he and his friends runs the Pravda and probably use that as part of his patronage network.
 
Just adding in a graph of profitability change over time per sector. I was playing around with a graphing library for python and felt I should share this. It's not necessarily new info, but it provides a helpful visual imo.
 
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