Modifiers are useful, but a 30 will almost always lose to a 70.

Unless I am mistaken, the dice are the primary factor; the modifiers only matter if you're close. And since this game operates on a d100 rather than a d20, the odds of being close are not that great.
That's only if you are rolling for two binary results: Success and failure. Sometimes the degree of success and failure can matter as well; a win by 5 points might mean we won by the skin of our teeth, while a win by 50 points might mean a crushing victory.

Not to get too deep into it, but some of the "traditional" and/or most common methods of writing a narrative, like having clearly foreshadowed consequences and events playing out to cause a certain pre-determined dramatic conflict, aren't the only way to write stories. Heavy use of dice rolling, like as done in Quests or Tabletop Roleplay, are a very different style, and when done well it can make things more dramatic and immersive. The risks and uncertainties the characters face are things the audience also faces along with them. Even if it means characters sometimes fail at things that would have been very narratively satisfying for them to succeed at in a normal story, it means the successes and failures feel more well earned since the consequences weren't chosen ahead of time.

One of the quests that I believe handles its dice rolls best is Divided Loyalties. The QM always depends heavily on the context of events to determine the outcome of said dice rolls. To use a less spoilery example: Mathilde, a combination spy-wizard, once passed along information about a secret cult that was threatening the Empire to her Master. Soon after, she took a standard learning action from said Master... and rolled a critical failure. Rather than Mathilde stubbing her toe or some other silly failure, it turned out that the secret cult had done something so terrible that all information that said cult even existed couldn't be allowed to get out, and so no lesson could take place at the time. Later on, we learned what the cult had been up to, and it had some wide-reaching consequences for the setting that were very fun - but if we'd rolled a normal failure, that entire story wouldn't have even happened.

On the other end of things, recently Mathilde had a friendly duel with an important foreign lord, and rolled a crit failure there too. But because it was a friendly duel with both combatants being cautious, the result of that was Mathilde simply failed to impress said lord with her dueling skills in what was a too-cautious fight where they both restrained themselves from actually fighting.

Some quests are extremely swingy, letting a single dice roll give outrageous success or bafflingly unrealistic failure. Those quests are, to put it gently, highly flawed. Dice rolls done right shouldn't obviate a character's choices and actions, but rather bring out the uncertainty and opportunities of being in a living, unpredictable world.

P.S. I'm not sure why two critical failures were the examples that sprang to mind. *shrug*
 
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With a dice-based system, Gideon could roll 100 96 82 76 95 93. Stahl could roll 5 11 24 16 33 7. A Nod warlord with an established record of bad decisions and horribly damaged forces could suddenly score six consecutive victories, while the reincarnated Legendary Insurgent could throw six fights in a row. Good writing can justify and explain this in-universe, but it's still a deeply flawed system.

...

Under a dice system, we could roll 100 98 94. Or 1 3 6. With the first set of rolls, GDI's forces win an overwhelming victory. With the second, we suffer a hideous defeat. Our choices did not change. The characters involved did not change. The pre-existing conditions we shaped and the NPC characters the author created have been distorted to bow before the dictates of a small piece of plastic.

If I'm not mistaken, your issue is that the rolls don't provide consistency. But isn't that what the modifiers to the dice provide? In your example, Gideon, Stahl, and a reincarnated Legendary Insurgent would all have a different modifier to the dice. The LI would have massive bonuses, then Stahl with moderate, then Gideon with low. But the random rolls provide the randomness of real life. Gideon could accidentally find a gap in sensor coverage, and the LI could always be unfortunately disrupted by unpredictable ion storms.

Perhaps your feeling would be more dissuaded by seeing the actual numeric modifiers, but that would be revealing too much about the exact modifier numbers and trend towards metagaming territory. So that's out. But maybe knowing that the modifiers exist can somewhat compensate for that feeling?

The choices we made and the choices the NPCs made do matter, they're placed inside the modifiers. The choices we made to military or other matters, there are a few battles that GDI has won despite rolling lower. And in real life, sometimes random chance does dictate that your choices completely don't matter. Captain Picard did once say "It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness; that is life."
 
Even then dice rolls are impacted by the situation- for example in the original plan quest there was a point late in the war where even losing the dice roll was not a loss on the front, just that the front advanced slower than expected since the situation had changed to the point that it was a question of when not if.
 
So a big part of the reason for me using the 100s is that the actual simulation is relatively thin. I don't have a big map with the location of every GDI battalion and brotherhood battalion equivalent down to the grid square. I don't have names for every general on every front, I don't have really their skill levels or condition of their troops. So I put that into dice rolls. It is a way to represent the chance that a well supplied elite unit of the brotherhood runs into a weaksauce gdi unit.

Now I could certainly go much more into simulation, but that would take between ten and twenty people to manage.

Edit: your investments do actually make a difference here because it changes what scales they can operate at. Gideon rolling a big victory means more along the lines of daring raid because you have invested enough to make conventional victory effectively impossible. Stahl losing big comparatively will tend to either be material losses or simply smaller. Or a subordinate acting out.

This is entirely fair.

I come down hard on the narrativist side of the gamist-narrativist-simulationist divide. But as you point out, it is entirely possible to incorporate dice rolls into the narrative without damaging Stahl's characterization or impugning Agent INDIGO OASIS's dedication to our cause.

Perhaps viewing dice in the same way that vampires view holy water is not the most balanced or reasonable perspective.
 
I'd like to point out that Mondragon is likely the supplier of a lot of the materials that the Carribean NOD are using to make our lives difficult, to say nothing of all the basing along the Mexican Coast they can operate out of. Given the Carribean is one of the real raider saturated regions causing us trouble, I think investing in a regional offensive to further cripple Mondragon, or at least a certain eye on the state of our logistics the next few turns might be in order. We could easily see something of a virtuous cyclone in Mexico where the harder we kick Mondragon, the easier it is to support an offensive against him because the Carribean is increasingly secure.

Edit: dice are wildly unpredictable and the enemy of good planning, d100s are especially hateful bastards, but that just means a good QM or GM has the responsibility of placing that roll in an appropriate context. Not all crits are created equally for better or worse.
 
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I'd like to point out that Mondragon is likely the supplier of a lot of the materials that the Carribean NOD are using to make our lives difficult, to say nothing of all the basing along the Mexican Coast they can operate out of. Given the Carribean is one of the real raider saturated regions causing us trouble, I think investing in a regional offensive to further cripple Mondragon, or at least a certain eye on the state of our logistics the next few turns might be in order. We could easily see something of a virtuous cyclone in Mexico where the harder we kick Mondragon, the easier it is to support an offensive against him because the Carribean is increasingly secure.
looking at the map if anyone supplying him it the stahl or gideon not monodragon with him on the pacfifc mexico side and a massive red zone in-between him the caribbean sea
 
looking at the map if anyone supplying him it the stahl or gideon not monodragon with him on the pacfifc mexico side and a massive red zone in-between him the caribbean sea
Considering how massive the MidWest Red Zone is, I think the odds of it being Mondragon are significantly higher than Gideon, and I'm pretty sure we have a presence in Columbia.
 
Considering how massive the MidWest Red Zone is, I think the odds of it being Mondragon are significantly higher than Gideon, and I'm pretty sure we have a presence in Columbia.
gideon is in the south though and right next to the carbien so why wouldn't it be him? here the map
we don't control columbia we may have one massive tank(the name forgetting me) but we don't control it in anyway
 
To swing things back around... (and got ninja'd on that)

Unlikely. Those ships will take at least 2 turns to start being useful, and probably 3 or 4 turns. It has been said before, but naval strategy is build strategy. You do projects now for the navy you want to have next plan.

The reason I considered that maybe the conversions had an effect was that it was Merchantmen Carrier Conversions, rather than development+deployment. The description for them clearly indicates that GDI has the design specs for them, which means they're likely somewhere in the contract design to detail design phases of ship design. And given that the yards can reuse part of the construction blueprints for the merchantmen when doing the detail design for the carriers, that speeds things up more. Given that it was over 3 months from when we started the process, I wouldn't be entirely surprised that conversions were entering service some time over the course of this turn.

Sure, they might still need working up and air group practice, but they might still have had an effect.

Though I guess it might also depend on if we were converting from launched ships or building from the keel up. The Bogue-class had two groups - one was conversions of existing ships, the other built from the keel up to the design. Converting existing ships might take longer than building from the keel up, depending on how much alteration is needed. But, generally speaking, 3-6 months for conversion/building doesn't seem entirely out of the question based on historical examples. Larger and more complicated ships countered to an extent by more advanced ship building techniques and technology.

That was my thoughts on it at least.

--

Mondragon supplying Gideon meant it had to travel up the Rockies, through the Canadian North, and then down into the American South. The two GZ points breaking the territory into three pieces interrupts that. So Mondragon now could only really supply Stahl or himself. That doesn't mean there might not be factories, etc in the American South or Caribbean. But the amount of heavy metal Gideon can bring to bear on land has been massively decreased if nothing else. The loss of access to the tiberium in Canada probably hurts a bit more for Gideon and the raiders.
 
Yeah. Rakuhn has decided that it is better that she roll on the nod table, partially to encourage other people to make (awesome) mods.

You forgot to threadmark Rakuhn's work. How are people supposed to play it if they don't have a thread mark to lead them to her post?
 
To swing things back around... (and got ninja'd on that)



The reason I considered that maybe the conversions had an effect was that it was Merchantmen Carrier Conversions, rather than development+deployment. The description for them clearly indicates that GDI has the design specs for them, which means they're likely somewhere in the contract design to detail design phases of ship design. And given that the yards can reuse part of the construction blueprints for the merchantmen when doing the detail design for the carriers, that speeds things up more. Given that it was over 3 months from when we started the process, I wouldn't be entirely surprised that conversions were entering service some time over the course of this turn.

Sure, they might still need working up and air group practice, but they might still have had an effect.

Though I guess it might also depend on if we were converting from launched ships or building from the keel up. The Bogue-class had two groups - one was conversions of existing ships, the other built from the keel up to the design. Converting existing ships might take longer than building from the keel up, depending on how much alteration is needed. But, generally speaking, 3-6 months for conversion/building doesn't seem entirely out of the question based on historical examples. Larger and more complicated ships countered to an extent by more advanced ship building techniques and technology.

That was my thoughts on it at least.

--

Mondragon supplying Gideon meant it had to travel up the Rockies, through the Canadian North, and then down into the American South. The two GZ points breaking the territory into three pieces interrupts that. So Mondragon now could only really supply Stahl or himself. That doesn't mean there might not be factories, etc in the American South or Caribbean. But the amount of heavy metal Gideon can bring to bear on land has been massively decreased if nothing else. The loss of access to the tiberium in Canada probably hurts a bit more for Gideon and the raiders.
We've completed the deployment phase now but that doesn't mean the ships are done. With all of our projects so far, completing the deployment phase is doing the work required for them to start producing ships. They still need to build them
 
MARV hub map

Up to date as of Q3 2065



MARV Hubs:
Blue Zones
MARV HubInhibitor Availability
BZ-1 Mainland Europe (North/East)St. Petersburg, Russia - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-2 North America (East)Richmond, Virginia - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-3 British ArchipelagoManchester, England - NOT AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-4 Arabian PeninsulaAbu Dhabi - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-5 Mainland Europe (Iberian Peninsula)Madrid, Spain - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-6 Japanese ArchipelagoTokyo, Japan - NOT AVAILABLEUNDER CONSTRUCTION
BZ-7 Korean PeninsulaDandong, China - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-8 South AmericaMendoza, Argentina - AVAILABLEAVAILABLE
BZ-9 Australia (East)Canberra, Australia - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-10 Africa (South)Pretoria, South Africa - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-11 North America (West)San Diego, California - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-12 Aotearoa/New ZealandWellington - NOT AVAILABLEAVAILABLE
BZ-13 Africa (West)Touba, Senegal - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-14 MadagascarAntananarivo, Madagascar - NOT AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-15 IcelandReykholt, Iceland - NOT AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-16 Russian Far EastMagadan, Russia - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-17 GreenlandPaamiut, Greenland - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
BZ-18 HimalayasHotan, China - AVAILABLEDEPLOYED
Yellow Zones
MARV Hubs (Note: All unconstructed YZ Hubs are currently unavailable)Inhibitor Availability
YZ-1 Indian SubcontinentSOUTH - Kannur, IndiaNOT AVAILABLE
--EAST - Puri, India--
--WEST - Mandvi, India--
YZ-2 Mainland Southeast AsiaNha Trang, VietnamNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-3 Asia (East)Nikolayevsk-on-Amur, RussiaNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-4 PhilippinesLaoag, PhilippinesNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-5 IndonesiaSorong, IndonesiaNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-6 Australia (West)Perth, AustraliaNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-7 Australia (East)[ZONE DEFUNCT][ZONE DEFUNCT]
YZ-8 Arabian PeninsulaNOT AVAILABLENOT AVAILABLE
YZ-9 North America (West)Mazatlán, MexicoNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-10 North America (East)Savannah, Georgia - DEPLOYEDAVAILABLE
YZ-11 South America (North)Buenaventura, Colombia - DEPLOYEDAVAILABLE
YZ-12 South America (South)Montevideo, UruguayNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-13 Africa (West)NORTH - Algiers, AlgeriaNOT AVAILABLE
--SOUTH - Lomé, Togo--
YZ-14 Africa (South)Nacala, MozambiqueNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-15 EuropeBarcelona, SpainNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-16 Africa (East)Port Sudan, SudanNOT AVAILABLE
YZ-17 Hawaiian ArchipelagoNOT AVAILABLENOT AVAILABLE
YZ-18 RussiaVarandey, RussiaNOT AVAILABLE
Red Zones
MARV HubsInhibitor Availability
RZ-1 Mediterranean (West)NORTH - Genoa, Italy - DEPLOYEDDEPLOYED
--SOUTH - Benghazi, Libya - DEPLOYED--
RZ-2 AfricaWEST - Matadi, Congo - DEPLOYEDDEPLOYED
--EAST - Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania - DEPLOYED--
RZ-3 Mediterranean (East)/Near EastNORTH - Istanbul, Turkey - DEPLOYEDDEPLOYED
--SOUTH - Port Said, Egypt - DEPLOYED--
RZ-4 East AsiaWEST - Mawlamine, Myanmar - AVAILABLENOT AVAILABLE
--EAST - Hong Kong - AVAILABLE--
RZ-5 Maritime Southeast AsiaWEST - Medan, Indonesia - AVAILABLENOT AVAILABLE
--EAST - Banjarmasin, Indonesia - AVAILABLE--
RZ-6 South AmericaNORTH - Macapá, Brazil - DEPLOYEDDEPLOYED
--SOUTH - Lima, Peru - DEPLOYED--
RZ-7 North AmericaNORTH - Chicago, Illinois - DEPLOYEDDEPLOYED
--SOUTH - Mobile, Alabama - DEPLOYED--
RZ-8 OceaniaNORTH - Wyndham, Australia - AVAILABLENOT AVAILABLE
--SOUTH - Eucla, Australia - DEPLOYED--


 
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