Nod might try to retake their lost territories in a grand counteroffensive or try to prevent GDI from digesting its gains. We will have to see the results if GDI will be able to continue the offensive next turn or if it is time to dig in to brace for counterattacks and to digest its existing gains.
We spent a lot of time in the offensive grinding down Nod's field forces, so I suspect they're not in immediate shape to begin a counteroffensive, but dealing with all the stay-behinds and so on is gonna be a big problem.
With GDI choosing not to send more armies to be smashed by the modern Hannibal and Stahl choosing to cash out with his victories instead of seeking more battles, Stahl will probably come looking the best of all the Nod warlords as he did not lose territory and he managed to avoid overreaching unlike some other warlords. Stahl and Reynaldo becoming the favored of Kane is not a good thing for GDI. It will make the next war much more difficult for GDI than if one of the most conventional warfare minded warlords who keep charging their forces onto GDI defenses became the favored warlord.
To be fair, the only way to really ensure that that
happened would have been for someone like Gideon or Krukov to win a lot of battles. But if they were good at winning a lot of battles, well, we'd be afraid of the consequences of them taking over.
The enemy cannot be counted on to promote idiots.
I am concerned about the potential return of Reynaldo. His strategy of hiding forces among refugee streams, bringing the war home to the Blue Zones, and indirectly strengthening xenophobic parties in GDI directly strikes against our overall strategy of trying to expand GDI influence into the Yellow Zones and integrating the Yellow Zone population. Reynaldo might try to turn his territories into a second Spanish Ulcer for GDI. If his strategy is not properly addressed, the Initiative First party might come to power in the next election and undo all the good we have achieved so far.
This is true, though I should note that the Initiative First party is unlikely to gain a true majority, and the ruling coalition in GDI has very broad bases of power. Initiative First would have to become very very strong for it to look like a good partner in a new ruling coalition.
Okay, so we might be closing out the Mexico "pocket" this war. This is good, because that's where Gideon's heaviest metal was getting built (Avatars, etc), and it secures the West Coast of the Americas until you hit Stahl Country.
I think it's optimistic for us to imagine this as enough to put Mondragon out of the game entirely. But it may help bottle him up and prevent him from posing a threat outside his own territorial core, as well as lay the groundwork for a more comprehensive "strangler" offensive against him at a later date.
GDI is fairly likely to contemplate a series of
regional offensives in the years after this, especially as the naval situation improves. The first probable target for that is Karachi because there
is pressure for it, but squashing Mondragon is a likely option as well.
Krukov continues to illustrate why I don't consider him a major level threat or potentially Kane's right hand, because he keeps fighting GDI like he's GDI. And that means he loses.
You wouldn't be saying that if his dice rolls were good.
To have a minimal chance of completing the Outer System Survey Probes this coming turn, we would want an orbital die along with Erewhon assigned to the project, and given the Orbital situation in general that doesn't seem feasible unless we could wrangle a free die or two from elsewhere. Which honestly wouldn't go amiss in any event, given how on the edge the Orbital situtaiton is. If we didn't add at least one Orbital or Free Die to Outer System Survey Probes, and instead just put Erewhon on it until he finished, it would take a year on average. That's just way too long to commit Erewhon to a project, especially towards the end of the plan. Still, something like:
Orbital 6/6 Dice + 2 Free Dice + Erewhon 170 R
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1): 0/150 (2 Dice, 40 R) (67% chance)
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2): 50/330 (3 Dice, 60 R) (32% chance)
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3): 217/375 (2 Dice, 40 R) (60% chance)
-[] Outer System Survey Probes: 0/190 (1 Die + E Die, 30 R) (14% chance)
I am hesitant to commit Orbital dice to the outer system survey at this time, but could be talked into doing it in 2061 if things go well.
I think you are using the old values for Regolith and Rare Metals. Given the first phase of Heavy Metals reduced the other two mines progress cost by 10 each, it is reasonable to assume this phase did the same.
Further, I was thinking about where Erewhon should go and ran some numbers in the case we keep him in Orbital, but don't do the Outer System Survey Probes. Specifically, I think its best if we but him on Rare Metals of the three mine types.
Math:
Rare (1 + E Dice), Regolith (3 Dice), Heavy (2 Dice) gives chances of 43%, 32% and 60% respectively. Which gives an average income of 5 * .43 + 15 * .32 + 20 * .6 = 18.95 RpT
Rare (2 Dice), Regolith (2 + E Dice), Heavy (2 Dice) gives chances of 67%, 16% and 60% respectively. Which gives an average income of 5 * .67 + 15 * .16 + 20 * .6 = 17.75 RpT
Rare (2 Dice), Regolith (3 Dice), Heavy (1 + E Dice) gives chances of 67%, 32% and 36% respectively. Which gives an average income of 5 * .67 + 15 * .32 + 20 * .36 = 15.35 RpT
You misunderstand my take on the situation. My prioritization isn't about maximizing average income, it's about
minimizing the risk of dice wastage. Because, again, margins are thin and we have
Enterprise to think of.
This means that I consider it nearly ideal if mining projects have, say, a 30-50% chance of completion, rather than aiming for high overkill.
Rare Metals is an exception because it rolls over into a second phase, so throwing three dice at it would be attractive if there weren't still several dice of work left to do on the regolith mines.
From my point of view, there are now three "gotta finish this" lunar mining projects:
Heavy Metals Phase 3,
Regolith Phase 2, and
Rare Metals 1+2. Each project costs something like 260-350 or so Progress to complete, and we really,
really don't want to go into overkill on any of them because we need all the dice we can spare for
Enterprise. It'd be ideal if we could finish them faster, but not at the cost of wasting dice.
So whereas last turn I was trying to maximize RpT return on investment, this turn I'm trying to deliberately avoid dice wastage, even at a slight cost in expected RpT return on investment.
This is a misrepresentation. GDI's budget has grown slightly, it has simply been allocated differently so the discretionary spending share share has slightly shrunk, and instead a long term commitment that does not require the Secretary of the Treasury's direct attention has been locked in.
This is a pointless nitpick. What I'm saying is that Treasury's actual discretionary
budget for projects, the one we're interested in, has shrunk, requiring a bit more thought as to exactly what projects we fund. For instance, if not for the reconstruction fund, I might have chosen to go for five dice on Bergen in hopes of sprinting up to Phase 3. That's a nonstarter as things stand.
