[ ] Suggest alternating road outposts along the unclaimed length. But allow basing for patrols at each other's outposts, for rest and recuperation. (Minimal contact, no favorability cost, due to successes thus far.)
This is a pretty good system. Alternating the outposts reinforces the neutral/unclaimed status of the land in question, preventing outposts from acting as de facto border extensions. Mutual rest access for patrols is also nice, especially with how important hospitality is in Polar Nations culture. Breaking bread might not be a monumental step, but it's definitely not nothing. I'd expect patrols to come up with their own shared traditions/jokes in not too long, since that's just how humans do.
Different topic, but this is all gonna be pretty pricey, which makes it a good opportunity for Dzintara to bring up those tariffs she's been wanting. Having a tariff nominally represent a use-fee for maintenance of the road and garisons/patrols is rhetorically sound, and we can acquiesce to her protectionism pretty easily.
[ ] Suggest in the interest of authority and further warding against tribal violence that outposts in the unclaimed section be fully shared structures, staffed by personnel from both nations. (-1 WP favorability, -1 PT Favorability. Improved road defenses and further mingling and cultural contact. Better response time to incursions against the road.)
I think a first thing it's important to approach clearly is that the security benefits are solely restricted to the road itself, here. It's not like there's no potential for political spillover with the road, there's risks associated with every inch of our projects here, but crucially the improved defense and responsiveness to security threats applies only to the one corridor of transit, in the west. We also need to ask- is the road really a priority for us and our goals?
Honestly, I'd say no. The road's going to be low-traffic for probably decades and likely to be one of the riskier routes available to people from either nation, regardless of what we invest in its security. Those who attempt it should be doing so with the understanding of the relative danger; I don't anticipate ruinous tension from losses experienced on the route, as callous as that is to say. That said, greater success with the road is obviously ideal... but that only remains true when it's acting to cement our gains, not if it's supplanting something, because at the end of the day it is a periphery matter.
Let's look at favorability. This option dings us with the White Plumes, with a chance of mitigation, and the Polar Theocracy, with no chance of mitigation. The latter is probably owed to the Polar Nation's ironclad taboo against male violence, when a majority of Emerald Seas' soldiery is made up of men who do violence.
The White Plumes don't worry me either way, since they should have limited stakes in cultural talks. The Polar Theocracy, however, is a big concern. We currently have a favorability of 3 with them. By itself that isn't too bad, but they don't exist in a vacuum. The MoI has a favorability of 2 and a tendency to hyper-sensitivity, threatening to drop by 2 at a time. PT and MoI priorities are highly likely to come into conflict with one another, so having a bigger margin to play with on the PT side could end up being make-or-break with keeping the MoI satisfied without pushing the PT into negatives either.
For example, the Polar Theocracy is likely to push for something like the right to build temples to their gods in the embassy town, maybe on a sliding scale. This is... fundamentally not unreasonable, especially considering that so many of their staff like judges, formation/geomancy experts, security, road wardens, etc. are basically members of priesthoods or religious orders. But the MoI is going to hate it, even on the minimal level. There's definitely going to be other issues.
In the end, we're basically guaranteed to give both the MoI and the PT less then they want, and to do that and succeed at the summit as a whole requires enough of a margin in favorability between the two of them that we can thread the needle of nobody flipping the board and storming off. Cultural issues are of extreme important to the Polar Theocracy, and we have our own hard-to-please domestic factions that aren't going to be agreeable with PT interests. Our margin with them is vital.
This road option narrows our margin, unavoidably. If it was a chance, maybe we could go for it. But it's a guaranteed hit, right before the section of the talks with probably the most importance to them. Maybe more importantly, we can afford to pass on this option. The road is not vital to the summit's success, and the other option is just fine.
This simply doesn't strike me as the place to invest a sharply limited resource we know for a fact we're going to want as much as possible of in the next thing we're doing.
[X] Suggest alternating road outposts along the unclaimed length. But allow basing for patrols at each other's outposts, for rest and recuperation. (Minimal contact, no favorability cost, due to successes thus far.)
