Collection of my Discord analysis on why I think holding Schnäbele is our best option.
Okay so the big points are how likely the Entente is to join the war and the state of the French military itself:
1) The Entente: I don't think perfidious albion is all in on an the Entente to the extent that they would be virtually guaranteed to join France in an offensive war that is muddled responsibility wise at best. People keep asserting the Entente is there to contain Germany but its mostly aimed at the Imperial League by word of QM:
A Brief State of the World: 1880 This is a brief summary of foreign affairs at the time of the Constitutional Convention as pertains primarily to Germany and German interests. Europe The European continent has stood paralyzed for almost a decade, gripped by the twin specters of economic...
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The heavy-handed intervention into the German Civil War by Austria and Russia has realigned continental politics once again. The two eastern empires are now firmly allied by reactionary fear and the prospect of post-revolutionary reprisals, while Britain and France have mended fences and resumed their prior amity in order to serve as a counterweight against absolutism.
If we can spin the situation so that it looks like France is attacking us Britain's main interest will be de-escalating both sides and preventing the Imperial League from jumping in.
2)
Anchises the Firemage — Yesterday at 9:37 PM
@Etranger what do we know about French military spending etc. Surely we would know about huge spending bills or reforms from the papers
Etranger — Yesterday at 9:39 PM
pretty high budget, persistent debates over conscription, a fair number of troops overseas
Then look at the OTL policies of the Second French Empire and do some extrapolations about what we know about SoN Second Empire.
Following the Napoleonic Wars, the restored Bourbon monarchy returned to its traditional reliance on long service volunteers plus some Swiss and German mercenary regiments. Numbers were filled out through limited conscription by lot, the burden of which spared the middle and upper classes who could afford to purchase exemption through the employment of paid substitutes. This unequal system continued until the Franco-Prussian War of 1870.
Debates about conscription imply this uneven and unjust practice is still in effect. You can absolutely argue this is unlikely given butterflies but the First Republic mostly appeased France and had cordial relations with them.
Its also important to remember the French Empire is an awkward creature. I'm not sure the Emperor who is reliant on a tight-rope act between faux democracy and appeasing the system's elite could just institute a true universal draft both fiscally and politically. Sitting next to a revolutionary polity is going to make elites itchy about true universal conscription in a system that is unpopular with the lower classes
The First Republic entering a violent civil war likely assuaged security concerns that caused OTLs Second Empire to ponder serious reform
A related question, how do you think our current army, as of this moment, with the national populace being quite firmly against the notion of a war right now, would stack up compared to Prussia in 1871?
Anchises the Firemage — Yesterday at 11:54 PM
Could we pull off what Prussia achieved in 1871? No at least not at that speed and with that efficiency
Could we pull off digging ourselves in at the border and bloodily repulse a French attack by an army that is already committed to colonial boondoggles? I'm fairly positive we can
What's my endgame here:
I don't think we can cross into France at all, imposing a revolutionary polity at bayonet point would be suicide I fully agree.
I believe however if France doesn't have a modern conscription system and the level of political division about this war that seems to exist this war won't be a destroyer of the proletariat. Charging an unwilling and undermanned army into prepared Landwehr defenses is going to be insanely bloody for them. Especially because we are used to this kind of battle and they aren't. This is going to cause a titanic political backlash and will either lead to the Imperial Elites seeking some form of armistice fast or to them instituting the kind of sloppy and fast mass mobilization they had to do in OTL 1871. I think that kind of mass mobilization would cause the Empire to explode if we behave purely defensively because I can't imagine the imperial system has the kind of cohesion to push again and again into well dug in positions because Boulangerists want this. His plan kinda relies on a fast and successful war. The kind of political crisis/army mutiny I expect will slow down colonialism and defang the French hawks permanently.
I think Britain is not going to sit by and allow the Imperial League to invade us if we behave purely defensively. This would basically mean handing German wealth and industry to their enemies because France has a gamer moment.
At the very least I would like to explore our options more by holding him and if things look like they are too hot I would appeal to Britain for mediation or release him. But we might have a golden opportunity here
