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Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
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[] Confident Approach (Base Success 45+, 2 rolls, less time consuming, lower cost.)

Not assuming this fungus is very smart so it is only acting on baseline instinct. Therefore it will attack if it thinks it can win and won't if it thinks it could lose. Should negotiate non interference for now. If the Shishigui avoid it then it has no interest in our conflict with them. Lets us pass since it is unlikely to win, continues feeding and nothing really changes. Don't let us pass we fight and it probably will lose. Should present as if on one side nothing will change and on the other they fight and it loses food.
 
[] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

Lets make more friends.
 
Everything we do informs our options in the future and I see confident as the way we want to be dealing with spirits in that future. When we get our fief at the border lands of the Empire there will be spirits there who will oppose our settling in their lands. We have a talent for dealing with spirits unlike any brute who can threaten and destroy, but at the same time for all the Ling Qi would seek to live in peace with the venerable spirits she'd also bend her surroundings to her will rather than live meekly in her own lands. We are the second of Cai Renxiang, we need to be able to enforce our will. With soft tones and a big flute.
 
I am guessing our C rank in Spirit Ken bumped down the Difficulty checks? Or did it just grant us more options to pick from? Were we D or E, would we only have Threathen and Sympatize, I wonder?
 
dycouza said:
Everything we do informs our options in the future and I see confident as the way we want to be dealing with spirits in that future. When we get our fief at the border lands of the Empire there will be spirits there who will oppose our settling in their lands. We have a talent for dealing with spirits unlike any brute who can threaten and destroy, but at the same time for all the Ling Qi would seek to live in peace with the venerable spirits she'd also bend her surroundings to her will rather than live meekly in her own lands. We are the second of Cai Renxiang, we need to be able to enforce our will. With soft tones and a big flute.
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But we could get a little baby mushroom kid if we sympathize with it!
 
So, bit of math (not exact numbers, rounding e.g 60/40 over 59/41 for speed):
  • Sympathetic:
    • 3 failures (very bad): 2.7%
    • 2 fails, 1 success (mostly bad): 18.9%
    • 1 fail, 2 success (ok?): 44.1%
    • 3 successes (best): 34.3%
    • Average of 2 degrees of success per roll (6 total). Range between 9 degrees of failure to 21 degrees of success.
    • "more time consuming, higher cost"
  • Threatening:
    • 1 failure (bad to very bad): 60%
    • 1 success (ok to good): 40%
    • Average 1 degree of failure, range between 6 DoF to 4 DoS.
    • "least time, no cost"
  • Confident approach:
    • 2 failures (very bad): 20.25%
    • 1 fail, 1 success (sometimes ok): 49.5%
    • 2 success (good to great): 30.5%
    • Average 0.5 DoS per roll (1 total), Range between 10 DoF to 12 DoS.
    • "less time, lower cost"

With that outline, I believe the best choice is the sympathetic approach:
  • Confident may seem ok but the most likely outcome is 1-1, which is gonna be on the bad side of average ~half the time, wheras the lower target value for Sympathetic means failures are unlikely to be costly in degrees-of-failure, and successes will likely be rewarding.
  • Sympathetic even has better odds for the best outcome at ~34% vs 30%, and with 3 rolls likely getting higher degrees of success out of it to mitigate cost.

That's the math take, now let's factor in the costs in time and "cost":
  • I'm not sure we're time constrained here, at least not to a degree that matters in these choices; as noted in the update, it basically takes getting into visual range to actually spot our group, and in these tunnels the rats avoid that's pretty unlikely for the hours(?) the longest negotiation would take.
  • This brings the matter to the price to be paid. High cost might hinder us further on, but it might also be some future obligation which won't affect the immediate (and is probably fine if it means we get to make a longer-term relationship here), and the cost might be something to be paid by sect resources and not LQ directly (though I find this narratively unlikely).
Ultimately I think the situation is risky enough and potential upside high enough to justify the sympathetic approach cost, whatever it may be.
 
I am uncertain about sympathetic given its cost component. The most likely thing we have to trade with this creature is our memories or dreams. I don't know how I feel about giving up our memories/dreams. I don't know if this speculation is true, but it currently seems like the most obvious thing we could trade.
 
[X] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

It'll take more time and resources, but I really want high total degrees of success on this one, which multiple rolls with a lower DC lets us fish for. The whole reason people voted for the Fungal Path was because a dreaming entity was something LQ was uniquely suited to deal with; it therefore follows that we should be more willing to go for broke on the stuff only we can do. Take our comparative advantage and lean on it hard.

(Specifically, the thing I am hoping for from a high-DoS win here is "information about what else is around." This whole thing is an intel mission, let's cultivate some... well, it's not human, so it's not humint. Spint sounds dumb. Taking suggestions.)
yrsillar said:
The eyes shuddered and spun shying away. This thing… it really was afraid, wasn't it? Despite the deep, deep well of power she could sense from them… it? Once she forced herself to look past the disturbing imagery, the greatest thing she could sense from it was fear. Her earlier thoughts returned. The creature fed on the weak, passively consuming those who fell asleep within. However… why then, did their enemies fear and avoid the deeper parts of the crevice?
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(We really want to know what the fuck is going on with this shit before we press further.)
 
Anyway, my feeling is that Sympathetic expends a great degree of resources establishing a potential long term relationship, which would be great if we had the time and resources to be able to afford it right here and now.

Threatening is dangerous because it's a fail state, and can potentially lead to it fucking us out of spite even if we manage to cow it. It's a great quick-and-dirty move but not one we can really afford right now.

Confident I think is the right choice, it establishes that we're not prey or enemy, the DC is not exceptionally rough, and while it pays a price in time and other expense, if our rolls are decent it shouldn't be too bad.

If time is being tracked, chance are that this is important. Like, I don't know, if they get antsy at the presence of Sect soldiers on their borders and are moving reinforcements up from the depths to cover them while they move in on a punitive investigation. Which would mean that we're risking the local defenses not being depleted, but replaced with elites or 'Regular forces' instead of border guards.

And I've never seen a story that rewards people for taking as long as possible to solve a problem. Generally speaking, time is always the enemy, and assuming it's on your side on anything but a fully defensive posture seems like folly.

[X] Confident Approach (Base Success 45+, 2 rolls, less time consuming, lower cost.)
 
[X] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

Probably gives us access to more then just passage and it is a path I would like LQ to take in her spirit dealings.
 
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[X] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

This is a higher cost, but it's a vital goal to succeed at. This is only the beginning of the mission. Discovery here would lead to none of the goals fulfilled. The lower success number means a higher chance of not just victory, which is a must, but a higher degree of success, with higher potential rewards. Potentially long term rewards.
 
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[X] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

reasoning as stated above; minimize chance of worse-than-neutral outcome (which is in the ~40% range for both other options compared to ~20% for this one), with the high average success degrees ameliorating the cost for potential long-term benefits on this expedition (and possibly beyond).
 
[X] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

This is a tough decision. The risks of this approach are less clear than those of the other approaches, which are more quantifiable, so it's potentially easier to go with this approach than it should be. For me, the deciding factor here is that I'm more interested in seeing the character interactions in the sympathetic approach than I am the confident approach.
 
ConspiratorX said:
[] Sympathetic approach (Base success 30+, 3 rolls, more time consuming, higher cost.)

This is a higher cost, but it's a vital goal to succeed at. This is only the beginning of the mission. Discovery here would lead to none of the goals fulfilled. The lower success number means a higher chance of not just victory, which is a must, but a higher degree of success, with higher potential rewards. Potentially long term rewards.
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You need to put an X in between the brackets for it to count.
 
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