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Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

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Themarineguy said:
...And a massive diplomatic offensive after the start of the canal might not look good either...
Diplomacy is COMPLICATED, and I am not sure which is better here.
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We're already 3 years in, and our diplomatic offensives are... lacking. Waiting another year for a Trade Deal is probably okay and maybe desirable if the "desperation" theory is true--but that leaves us with only five years buffer after the second Trade Deal, before the Canal completes.

Certainly, waiting five years before even starting diplomacy is far too long, and limiting ourselves to ineffective actions is counterproductive. We can pause for a year, because of our recent attempted loan, but we should be starting again very soon afterwards.
 
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[x] Plan Khem nudge
-[x] Authority & Influence & Influence: Math Reform: The Kus have made advances in the notation of mathematics beyond the wildest dreams of the people. Not to mention the substance of math. "Zero"… it will change everything once people get a handle on it. If you were to institute reforms that changed the Melkut Ymaryn to the superior Kus system of math, then there would be immense savings simply from more precise ability to keep track of things. Of course, until the bureaucracy got a hang of the new numbers, it would be pure chaos. (45%. 5 Years. Extremely Expensive, -1 Authority while in progress, +2 Income)
-[x] Influence: Forgive Loan: Other people owe you money, but it's not like you need the cash. Their gratitude at being let off the hook may be more valuable than mere silver. (100%, 1 Year, -.1 Income, +Opinion, Possible ± Prestige, Narrative effects)
--[x] Amber Road
-[x] Influence: Negotiate Trade Deal: In the cutthroat world of commerce it is said that for one to benefit another must lose. Even so, it might be worthwhile to formalize trade deals with various powers. (85%. 1 Year. +.1 Income and -1 Opinion if Prestige > Target or -.1 Income and +1 Opinion if Prestige < Target, may pay 1 prestige to give a favorable deal to a less prestigious state, may be taken multiple times with different targets, possible opinion effects on third parties)
--[x] Khemtri
-[x] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)
 
ExNihilo said:
Advantage Abyss, because we can ward them, right?
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Abyss is not a Kus nation, it is Khem's neighbour and on-off enemy to the south. We can't really diplo both them and the Khem.

noncannon said:
Certainly, waiting five years before even starting diplomacy is far too long,
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We have not. We have sold them a lot of materials for building the canal to them three years ago and we offered them a loan last year.

We can wait another year or two while we handle other diplomatic concerns before making another shot at the Khem.
 
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Oshha said:
I also disagree that there is a timeline we need to be worried about... and the canal is going to take a minimum of another seventeen years to building and most likely longer.
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Um...

Diplomacy is most effective when the other nation needs still needs us (for funding/tools of their canal), not so much afterwards. Furthermore, before the canal is the best time to negotiate a trade regime involving said canal. After the canal, whatever the Khem decide will be the status quo to contend with.

We want to establish to them, before the canal, the mutual benefits of a Silk Road oligopoly. This gives us seventeen years.

Dallying hurts our internal factions, many of whom benefit from the current Silk Road monopoly. It hurts our income and our Influence.

Successful coordination, on the other hand, boosts the peaceful Peahen approach, and opens us increasingly to diplomacy and working non-arrogantly with our neighbors.


Edit: yes, we can wait a year or two. Not five.

[] Plan Oshha {Edit: a trade deal doesn't seem to be in the works}
[X] Plan Khem nudge
 
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noncannon said:
Furthermore, before the canal is the best time to negotiate a trade regime involving said canal.
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The Negotiate Trade Deal doesn't do this. It just handles generic trade and given our prestige levels, it just means we give trade concessions to the Khem. From this and the rest of your post, the action doesn't do what you seem to think it does so you should take that into consideration. Taking the Negotiate Trade Deal action has nothing to do with negotiating trade deals around the canal or getting a mutually beneficial Silk Road monopoly, it just us giving trade concessions to the Khem.
 
The rivalry is already in question, and another Trade deal is rather likely to break it.

(Especially as we're mainly trade rivals, which offering favorable trade deals particularly calls into question.)

Either way, these are clear signals to Khem of our commitment in thawing relations. The Khem become more likely to approach us on their own, boosting the long-term benefits. They may even slip in an extra negotiation while we're negotiating the trade deals.

(Plus, as a major long-turn hope, medical outreach might become available again.)


The first trade deal is not likely to discuss a Silk Road oligopoly, no. The second trade deal might be (or it could happen off-screen), but it'll only be possible if we actually reach out to begin with.
 
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Themarineguy said:
Or it might not, because the trade deals are looked on as concessions. 🤷‍♂️
Build ties might narratively be superior when it comes to breaking down the rivalry.
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Trade Deal boosts Opinion for sure, and Aranfan has suggested that a friendly rivalry is rather unlikely.

Also, a concession to what? Khem aren't asking for anything; we're reaching out to them on our own. Furthermore, we have reached out to them in this way in 1608, so there's precedent of this not being a a canal response.

(1608 also had a narrative that we may follow up to make them more dependent on the Ymaryn show that we we're serious about playing the part of middle-men with reasonable fees. The 1618 interrupt understandably changed that expectation, making it so they no longer expect anything--but now, if we subvert that expectation and continue to show our genuine intentions...

At the very least, there's pretext that makes it seem far less related to the canal. And if our ambassadors should be good at anything, it would be arrogantly making face-saving excuses.)
 
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noncannon said:
Trade Deal boosts Opinion for sure, and Aranfan has suggested that a friendly rivalry is rather unlikely.

Also, a concession to what? Khem aren't asking for anything; we're reaching out to them on our own. Furthermore, we have reached out to them in this way in 1608, so there's precedent of this not being a a canal response.
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Well, at minimum our recent history has us using it to ruffle feathers after the food incident, or essentially a bribe, follwed later by bribing someone to not attacking us again...
Aranfan said:
Negotiate Trade Deal, Styrmyr
Needed: 16+. 78-5=73. Success.

It is a bribe to keep them out of the war, plain and simple. It is blindingly obvious to everyone what you are doing, and how desperate you must be to need to do so. The thing is? It works. The Styrmyr happily accept the deal and reaffirm the ancient friendship between the two branches of the family of The People.

[Styrmyr +1 Opinion, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige]
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While I am not sure how it is gonna be taken, especially since it is a hit to our income with the only gain being opinion, I could see it being interpreted as a bribe, and in a way, it kind of is...
While building ties is all about the rapport, building relations through means other than gifts, bribes, or expensive actions...
 
Themarineguy said:
Well, at minimum our recent history has us using it to ruffle feathers after the food incident, or essentially a bribe, follwed later by bribing someone to not attacking us again...

While I am not sure how it is gonna be taken, especially since it is a hit to our income with the only gain being opinion, I could see it being interpreted as a bribe, and in a way, it kind of is...
While building ties is all about the rapport, building relations through means other than gifts, bribes, or expensive actions...
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It also ties their economy closer to ours. It increases trade between our nations as they buy more of our trade goods for with lower trade barriers.

I want Khem tied to our economy before the canal kicks in so they don't decide to do something nasty like block their rivals from the canal.
 
Themarineguy said:
Well, at minimum our recent history has us using it to ruffle feathers after the food incident, or essentially a bribe, follwed later by bribing someone to not attacking us again...

While I am not sure how it is gonna be taken, especially since it is a hit to our income with the only gain being opinion, I could see it being interpreted as a bribe, and in a way, it kind of is...
While building ties is all about the rapport, building relations through means other than gifts, bribes, or expensive actions...
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Like I said, there is a somewhat-credible alternate pretext (and precedent) for the Ymaryn's intentions with Trade Deals, and arrogant excuse-making should fall well into our ambassadors' skill-set.

Too, the rivalry is primarily a trade rivalry, which giving them favorable trade deals should directly contradict. The more trade deals we give, the more their traders love (and become dependent upon) the Ymaryn. This should be one of the more effective methods to remove that rivalry, not less.
 
One day Khem is going to be looking at a "spark prestige conflict with ymar" button.

That button is going to have a bunch of negatives attached to it, including a big - income. Each trade deal we offer them makes that - income worse. If they blockade us they lose all those trade deals.

I want it to be as painful as posible for Khem to start a trade conflict with us.

Aranfan said:
Making a lot of assumptions about how trade works in this time period.
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If we give them low tariffs on Hung compatable goods then they will become accustomed to buying our goods to sell to Hung for things like silk.
 
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Fouredged Sword said:
One day Khem is going to be looking at a "spark prestige conflict with ymar" button.

That button is going to have a bunch of negatives attached to it, including a big - income. Each trade deal we offer them makes that - income worse. If they blockade us they lose all those trade deals.

I want it to be as painful as posible for Khem to start a trade conflict with us.
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And the possible +income if they win, AND the possibility of removing the dangrous reliance on us. Assuming it goes in the direction some of us think it is
Aranfan said:
Making a lot of assumptions about how trade works in this time period.
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Considering this I am not sure.
Fouredged Sword said:
If we give them low tariffs on Hung compatable goods then they will become accustomed to buying our goods to sell to Hung for things like silk.
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And theoretically, if they take us down a few pegs, the Hung might recognize them instead of us, therefore supplanting our position...
 
Themarineguy said:
And the possible +income if they win, AND the possibility of removing the dangrous reliance on us. Assuming it goes in the direction some of us think it is

Considering this I am not sure.

And theoretically, if they take us down a few pegs, the Hung might recognize them instead of us, therefore supplanting our position...
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Hung's deals with us is more about history and a lack of internal competition for glassmaking and ceramics of high quality. The Hung are accustomed to importing those goods.

The Khem don't have something Hung is accustomed to importing other than speci. Hung doesn't need cloth or food. Hung is a cloth exporter.
 
Fouredged Sword said:
Hung's deals with us is more about history and a lack of internal competition for glassmaking and ceramics of high quality. The Hung are accustomed to importing those goods.

The Khem don't have something Hung is accustomed to importing other than speci. Hung doesn't need cloth or food. Hung is a cloth exporter.
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True, but well...
There is nothing that sais beating down a 'peer' might get Hung to recognize them...
Unlikely, yes, but different cultures may bring different expectations.
 
Themarineguy said:
True, but well...
There is nothing that sais beating down a 'peer' might get Hung to recognize them...
Unlikely, yes, but different cultures may bring different expectations.
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The Hung are even more arrogant and internally focused than Ymar. I don't think they even acknowledge that other cultures can even HAVE prestige, much less see someone as a king of any hill.

It's all barbarians squabling with other barbarians.
 
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