[X] Plan Spread the Force and Don't Cause a Famine
-[x] Authority: Shift Deployment: The Mass Levy is large and unwieldy. Changing circumstances require a shift in deployment patterns. (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
--[x] Take 100,000 troops out of the Thunder Plateau campaign
---[x] Reinforce Western Wall campaign with 60,000 troops
---[x] Reinforce Highlander campaign with 40,000 troops
-[x] Authority: Diplomatic Contact, Highlanders: What have the Highlanders gotten up to in these last thousand years? Do you even care so long as they stay in their hills? (???% 1 Year. Possible -Influence)
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[x]Berba
-[x] Influence: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels: Establish formal diplomatic ties with the rebels in the Thunder Plateau. If you can absorb them diplomatically back into the kingdom, it would greatly speed the reunification timeline. (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[x] Influence: Fund Faction: Fund a faction in a foreign polity that has been identified.
--[x] Black Sheep Rebels
-[x] Shift Banner Companies between fronts: Banner Companies may be shifted between active fronts and reserves as a free action while the Mass Levy is active.
--[x] Iron Flowers to Thunder Plateau
-[x] Personal: Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)

So I'm reducing the troop numbers in TP
This isn't too bad... yet.
My bolding. Paying for what we take staves off hostility but it doesn't magically create food so, reducing the load.
To mitigate any slowdown from this I'm sending them the Iron Flowers - 1/10 the footprint, significantly more than 1/10 the punch - and funding the Rebels. WW will miss the elite infantry but 60,000 men has a quality of it's own - they'll actually outnumber the traitors for once.
40,000 men go to face the Highlanders taking that front up to 70,000. This not only makes sure they're contained (and can be crushed if needed) but provides a sufficient show of force that the notoriously ornery and isolationist gits take our diplomats seriously. Dealing from an appropriate position of strength will hopefully make talking at all with people held in contempt for millennia more palatable to our own people. This is still the make contact action likely to get pushback from the civil service so it gets the second Authority die.
Funding the rebels should make them more useful in the war and improve the odds of successful diplomacy with them.
Taking a loan from Berba pays for the funding and lowers our prestige.
Balthazar is overworking but it's not like we've been mashing that button recently and there's a lot to do.
 
My bolding. Paying for what we take staves off hostility but it doesn't magically create food so, reducing the load.
To mitigate any slowdown from this I'm sending them the Iron Flowers - 1/10 the footprint, significantly more than 1/10 the punch - and funding the Rebels. WW will miss the elite infantry but 60,000 men has a quality of it's own - they'll actually outnumber the traitors for once.
40,000 men go to face the Highlanders taking that front up to 70,000. This not only makes sure they're contained (and can be crushed if needed) but provides a sufficient show of force that the notoriously ornery and isolationist gits take our diplomats seriously. Dealing from an appropriate position of strength will hopefully make talking at all with people held in contempt for millennia more palatable to our own people. This is still the make contact action likely to get pushback from the civil service so it gets the second Authority die.
Funding the rebels should make them more useful in the war and improve the odds of successful diplomacy with them.
Taking a loan from Berba pays for the funding and lowers our prestige.
Balthazar is overworking but it's not like we've been mashing that button recently and there's a lot to do.

We already solved the logistics problem. It was all the burden of the administration.

[x] Plan SMASH
-[x] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[x] Authority: Shift Deployment: The Mass Levy is large and unwieldy. Changing circumstances require a shift in deployment patterns. (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
-- 60k from Black Sheep (leaving them with 610k) toward the Highlander (total force 90K).
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Berba (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Elam (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)

We just need a decisive crushing of the Highlanders. With a victory, it will improve logistics and speed up victory.
 
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Approval voting down here to avoid weird tally shenanigans:

[X] Plan Oshha

Solid plan to increase Treasury, reduce prestige, progress in the war.

[x] Plan Close a second front

I don't really like prioritizing Highlander diplomacy over the second loan, but I don't really dislike it either (and we have a bad habit of punting that into the future, as Aranfan says, for 3000 years).

With any luck, Highlander diplomacy will reduce our prestige further without costing too much.

Shifting deployment also prevents the possibility of looting in Thunder Plateau (but slows progress down), something I want to do before next year is over anyway (so this year is okay).

...

Concerning Plan Spread the Force and Don't Cause a Famine, I think the Banner Companies are best left in Western Wall, where the combo of the two is most effective; I also don't want to commit too much to the Highlanders (which amounts to committing them to reserves eventually).

Most importantly, Working overtime significantly risks not only chaos in a time of war, but our diplomatic resolution with the Black Sheep (previous analysis, previous addendum).

...

Edit: concerning plan SMASH, I'm not okay with the huge deployment to the Highlanders (which eventually puts them in reserve); would approval vote for it if it matches Plan Close a second front's deployment or similar.
 
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[x] Plan Close a second front

I don't really like spending multiple influence for ??? turns on sleeper cells. By the time momentum built, the cities will be surrendering as more cities are taken anyway.
 
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1617 Start Snapshot of frequently-changed stats (1616 Initial Results)

Base Influence: 5 Influence, 2 Authority

Naval Status (Yllython Mor): 8 (Poor)
Naval Status (Saffron Sea): 2 (Anemic)
Naval Status (Salt Sea): 4 (Weak)
Naval Status (Monsoon Sea): 6 (Poor)
(Combined Yllython+Saffron Naval: 10 [Average])
Total Naval Score: 20

Professional Army Formations:
Iron Flower Banner Company (Pike & Shot [crossbow]) - Deployed to Western Wall Front
Heaven's Hawk Banner Company (Heavy Cavalry) - Deployed to Western Wall Front

Thunder Plateau Front: 670,000 men & Dragon General Dafydd.
Western Wall Front: 270,000 men & Both Banner Companies
Highlander Front: 30,000 Men
Reserve: 30,000 Men


Treasury Status: 3.5/10
Income: +.9

Expensive Actions subtract 1 from treasury status, Profitable actions add 1 to it. Very is x2, Extremely is x3, Ruinously/Insanely is x4.
Income adds itself to the Treasury Status every 5 years.


Provinces and Loyalty

Core: Rock Solid
Memory of Spirits: Rock Solid
Txolla: Unshakable
Hathytta: Decently Loyal
Western Wall: In Rebellion
Greenshore: Solid
Tinshore: Rock Solid
Thunder Plateau: Under Foreign Occupation

Client States:

Tin Tribes

-



Opinions of you:

Khemetri: 4/10 [C] R
Magyar: 7/10
Kurna: 8/10
Ealam: 7/10
Vynta: 6/10
Ruma: 5/10
Pamplona: 8/10
Abyss: 5/10
Hung: 8/10 [C]
Rexum Germanum: 5/10
-Hasum 4/10
-Behryvar 4/10
-Ochrur ?/10
Tarta: 5/10
Styrmyr: 5/10
Amber Road: 8/10 [C], 2/5 [A]
Norsca: 4/10
Berba: 5/10
Hellas: 3/10 [C] R
Pulska: 3/5


Prestige Rankings:
<30 = Minor Power
30-59 = Major Power
60-99 = Great Power
100+ = Super Power


Melkut Ymaryn: 62

Additional Stats (1617 Start)
Prestige:: 62
Authority: 2
Influence: 2
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 9.1
Other Notables: None
Revaunchists Appeasement: Mass Levy
Txollan Concerns Met: War with Black Sheep

Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion)
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [1.875]
(These estimates are probably out of date. see 1613 Start for latest updates)

Next Guild Income Within: 1618
Treasury: 3.5 (+0.9 mid-1620,1625... ; +1 mid-1618,1620,...; -1 mid-year from Mass Levy)
Unoccupied Banner Companies: Both on Western Wall front

Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Spreading the Warding, Amber Road [1 Influence]: 1620 (1621)
Create Sleeper Cells, Black Sheep [2 Influence]: our choice
Counter Espionage [2 Influence]: ???
Train Thunder Plateau Administrators, Elective [1 Influence]: (1.4 * [Length of Black Sheep War + 2 years])

Revaunchists Weakenings: 4 (-1) = 3?
  1. Tin Tribes Independence
  2. White Peace with Hellas
  3. Amber Road Independence
  4. Refrain from conquering Stymyr to mountains
  5. Strengthening: Blame Western Wall
3 weakenings likely reduces "antsy": no more half-measures -> reduced half-measure roll weights

Sacred Warding Notes: Can provide to three nations after Hung delegation returns (1616-1618). (Source)

All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. I believe that income is added during the Initial Results part of a year, though the exact ordering within that stage is unclear.
 
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I removed plan close a second front, because we explode if we do not finish the Black Sheep war in time. We really really need two things.
1. Khem not to attack us when we cannot redeploy.
2. The Thunder Plateau by 6 years from now.

Unfortunately, it looks like we are NOT guaranteed to directly conquer it in that time, as we need to advance 4 more times in 6 years.
If I understand correctly, we have advanced 2 times in 3 years of war, which means we cannot afford to slow down. We might be able to get it by peace negotiations, but even that is not guaranteed.
At this point, I estimate we have about an 75% chance of avoiding an implosion by getting Thunder Plateau in time.

@Oshha,
Is there any way you will consider removing Western Wall sleeper cells from your plan? I think that is dangerous, because we do not know how much influence we may need to knuckle under to the Khem demand, if necessary.
 
[x] Plan ALL THE LOANS
-[x] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[x] Authority: Seek Loan: Abyss (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Berba (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Elam (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)

We might as well get ALL the loans.
 
[] Determine Internal Factions: Receive a dossier on the relevant internal factions of a polity you have diplomatic relations with. This will allow you to support or oppose their internal factions to be more favorable to your interests.
-[] Write in a polity you have diplomatic relations with, may be taken more then once with different targets for each time the action is taken.
I wonder if we can do this on ourselves. See how strong the revanchists are, what noble factions there are, etc.
 
As multiple people have requested it to me, I have swapped out the Western Wall Sleeper Cells for something else, in this case another loan for more money and less prestige.
 
I propose, at high priority, that we do, then. The text has been talking about how nobles are disappointed in the king and etc, so I think it would be worth it.
 
The patricians are very aware of the strain in our admin systems that led to the appeasement; they might not like the appeasement but I don't think it's an issue that leads to outright conflict.

That said, I'm not opposed to an internal review, just in case. It could open up some Intrigue actions to shift the Revaunchists' policy.

As multiple people have requested it to me, I have swapped out the Western Wall Sleeper Cells for something else, in this case another loan for more money and less prestige.
Rather than Ruma, I would consider taking a loan from Ealam, under the assumption that it's less visible to the Syffronites (being so far away).

Essentially, there are two possible methods:
  1. Take out two loans from Syffron one year, then two from Kus, then two from Syffron, etc. (Each party "thinks" we're coming by every two years to ask them and their neighbor for a loan. They make their decision without being aware if their neighbor is accepting, which may help foist a sense of competition.) [This is the method implicit in your current plan.]
  2. Take out one loan from Syffron and one from Kus each year. (Each party "thinks" we're only taking out one/year; everyone's probably more aware in general of the yearly loans. We might even get an opportunistic party coming by to offer us our "yearly loan".)

I slightly prefer the second approach, but neither approach is obviously superior.

...

[X] Plan Oshha
[x] Plan Close a second front
[x] Plan ALL THE LOANS

Some previous commentary above.
 
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I actually suggest we do this instead of a third loan.
I'm not sure. The reasons that people asked here in the thread and over on Discord to change my plan is due to Western Walls Sleeper Cell taking multiple turns and tying up an Influence and judging by the last time we did it, that action would take at least two turns and has a 65% chance of success. I guess an Authority could work, but...

@Aranfan Is there a reason we don't have estimated chances of success or turn length for the Determine Internal Factions action?

Rather than Ruma, I would consider taking a loan from Ealam, under the assumption that it's less visible to the Syffronites (being so far away).
I'll consider it and I understand your reasoning, but I want to see if anyone else would prefer that before I make the change.
 
Here's a new plan to shift deployment (to speed up Western Wall so that both fronts go down at the same time, and to take out the Highlanders), but without also devoting an extra action (and possible -Influence) to Highlander diplomacy.

[x] Plan Redeploy And Seek Loans
-[x] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[x] Authority: Shift Deployment (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
--[x] 70k from Black Sheep (leaving them with 600k) and 15k from reserves (15k remaining), 50k to Western Wall (we'd have 320k + Banner companies, versus their 300k), 35k to Highlanders (total 65k).
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Berba (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Abyss (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)

We've had significant victories in the Thunder Plateau; and we want to finish both conquests at the same time so that we're not distracted when the Khemetri come with their resulting ultimatum. So, divert some troops to Western Wall in order to conquer them a bit more quickly, and catch up on that front.

To that end, I've changed the deployment plan slightly to transfer 10k more from Black Sheep to Western Wall, compared to Plan Close a second front. Our intrigue actions have been very effective against Black Sheep (who actively dislike their rulers), whereas Western Wall probably needs more brute force.

There's no exact science to this, though, and I consider both deployment plans (or anything approximate to them) to be okay.

There were some supply issues in Thunder Plateau (it's unclear if those have been fixed) and, though they haven't gotten too bad yet, taking out troops will preempt the possibility of looting, which would be very bad for the citizens' goodwill (a must-have for continuing our momentum). The Western Wall front can support more troops, and has more food for sale.

Meanwhile, with our remaining likely attackers out of the war, we double the reserves sent against Highlanders, hopefully gaining a quick victory. (Diplomatic contact, while it would be good, isn't strictly necessary in addition to the deployment, and risks Possible -Influence.)

...

Compared to Plan Oshha: we do redeloyment (in place of one loan-taking action) to meet the goals described above. Plan Oshha (no redeployment) would allow Daffyd to more quickly meet up with the Black Sheep uprising, which is both a good and bad thing considering we want to finish both provinces at the same time.

Compared to Plan Close a second front, we seek a second loan rather than opening up Highlander negotiations (which I don't consider necessary, though it isn't an awful idea either). The deployment plan is also slightly changed (10k more from Black Sheep against Western Wall) to meet the above goal, but both deployments are basically okay.

I do find both similar alternatives still acceptable, so am continuing to approval vote them:

[X] Plan Oshha
[x] Plan Close a second front
[x] Plan ALL THE LOANS

I urge everyone to vote for every plan that seems acceptable to you (even if not ideal). That way, you don't accidentally split the vote, preventing your second-choice from winning against an unpreferred choice.
 
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we want to finish both provinces at the same time.
Well, considering we absolutely must finish the Thunder Province mess by a rather close deadline, I'd rather not slow down that front to boost a less urgent one.

It would be wonderful if we can finish up both fronts at the same time, but it is a luxury I am not sure we can afford.


On the other hand, I think we can probably handle a war with the WW and Khem, if that is all we are doing.

What do you think?
 
I think if we can take either Western Wall and the Black Sheep at the same time or we can take Western Wall and the Khem at the same time with our reserves handling the Highlanders in both scenarios.The Western Wall front is handling itself just fine while the forces we committed to the Thunder Plateau front could take on a Khem invasion if needed. I also think we can take the Khem or Western Wall on their own wihout the Mass Levy. With Hellas and Styrmyr out of the way, we just need to take out the Black Sheep before the Khem invaded.

So to me, our biggest concern is defeating the Black Sheep before the Khem declare war and just hold long we can keep up the Mass Levy before our society begins to suffer from maintaining it for so long.
 
I am not worried about needing to face the Khem with all our mights, just that we don't have too many fronts to fight.
 
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