Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
I will confirm this.
Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)
I will confirm this.
What we saw is that we can gain 2 prestige or more negating our attempt to lower our prestige. Also, I don't like the WW infiltration action. It's locking up influences for dubious gains.
The reason to overfill the Highlanders is to crush their forces so we peace them out. Then all 100k can refill our reserve and go to the WW. Until then the 30k Hellas force can act as reserve.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Unless you have some rational logic behind your reasoning, I don't care you strongly disagree. I don't get why you somehow think it is a bad thing to try and get loans from people who trust us more and preferable to get loans from people who trust us less, but it doesn't make sense. And I have already explained you why the idea that Berba are going to invade the Khem on our behalf because we owe them money is utterly baseless. They aren't going to ally with us just because we owe them money. They are going to expect us to pay it back regardless of whether or not we lose otherwise nobody else will let us take out loans from them again. Despite you insisting that they are, loans are neither suicide packs nor military alliances.
@Aranfan Can you please weigh in on this nonsense about taking out a loan from the Berba being some kind of alliance with them against the Khem?
Regardless of how much prestige we get, lowering our prestige still gives us less prestige than we would have if we didn't try to lower our prestige. As for the Western Wall infiltration action, it should give us a bonus in the war rolls once it is completed since that is how it works for the Black Sheep Sleeper Cells.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
It won't form an alliance. The Million Man Army is something that has made the world reassess what sort of state the Melkut Ymaryn is in. Previously you had seemed to be gravely weakened but now you seem to the outside to have been mostly recovered. They don't realize how rickety you still are, or that KMT could kill you if they timed it right. Berba would not expect a simple war with the Khem would render you unable to pack back a loan.
I'm less in favor of making sleeper cells in WW than in trying to make diplomatic contact with the highlanders.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
Press for Peace is gated behind diplomatic contact.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I figured that was the case, but nice to get confirmation that is. Anybody think it would be a good idea to open up contact with the Highlanders right now?
@Oshha
The reason to take loans from parties with lower opinion first--and higher opinion later--is unrelated to the possibility of military intervention.
It is unavoidable that a Ymaryn that has already taken a loan from several others would be seen more dubiously than a Ymaryn that has barely taken out any loans: they would start to wonder if we can afford to repay (the answer is probably still yes, given the extreme wealth we're demonstrated, but it would hurt our chances).
If we go to Berba last after taking a loan from several others, they're more likely to wonder whether it's worth the increased risk. If we go to Vynta last, they at least have the increased opinion of us, making it more likely to evaluate us positively.
As such, the suggestion is to take loans from parties with less opinion of us first, in order to better our chances of getting the loan later. The possibility of military intervention is unrelated; and in fact, secondary.
Edit: second thought/clarification: Berba's willingness is unrelated to the possibility of Khem invading, since we assume they're not privy to that... but it does give them the impression that we're likely to steamroll our rogue provinces and ultimately be able to pay back the loan.
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The reason to take loans from parties with lower opinion first--and higher opinion later--is unrelated to the possibility of military intervention.
It is unavoidable that a Ymaryn that has already taken a loan from several others would be seen more dubiously than a Ymaryn that has barely taken out any loans: they would start to wonder if we can afford to repay (the answer is probably still yes, given the extreme wealth we're demonstrated, but it would hurt our chances).
If we go to Berba last after taking a loan from several others, they're more likely to wonder whether it's worth the increased risk. If we go to Vynta last, they at least have the increased opinion of us, making it more likely to evaluate us positively.
As such, the suggestion is to take loans from parties with less opinion of us first, in order to better our chances of getting the loan later. The possibility of military intervention is unrelated; and in fact, secondary.
This means that the economic incentive for intervening against Khem probably doesn't exist (disproving my theory). However, it does mean that Berba is more willing to grant the loan (especially at first) despite their neutral opinion.
Edit: second thought/clarification: Berba's willingness is unrelated to the possibility of Khem invading, since we assume they're not privy to that... but it does give them the impression that we're likely to steamroll our rogue provinces and ultimately be able to pay back the loan.
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The 100k reserves wouldn't go to Western Wall automatically; we'd need to use up an additional action, which we should avoid needing. It's possible, on the other hand, to more than double the troops attacking the Highlanders (30k -> 65k) while only increasing the reserves (at the end) by 20k, as in previous post.
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- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That makes sense. What do you think of trying opening up diplomatic relations with the Highlanders so we can try and peace them out next turn?
I worry about the "possible -influence".
[] Diplomatic Contact, Highlanders: What have the Highlanders gotten up to in these last thousand years? Do you even care so long as they stay in their hills? (???% 1 Year. Possible -Influence)
Losing an additional influence now would be all sorts of bad.
Otherwise I would be for it.
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- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Plan Oshha
-[X] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels: Establish formal diplomatic ties with the rebels in the Thunder Plateau. If you can absorb them diplomatically back into the kingdom, it would greatly speed the reunification timeline. (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[X] Authority: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[X] Abyss
-[X] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[X] Ruma
-[X] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[X] Berba
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)
Here is my plan. Authority on making contact with the Black Sheep anti-rebels while an Influence goes to the Western Wall Sleeper Cells since I don't want to lock up an Authority in that action. An Authority goes to taking out a loan with Abyss since they appear to be well-off and wealthy. The final Influence goes to getting out another loan, this time with Berba because they should be rich after all of the success that they have seen. Finally, the personal action is stress reducing.
This should help with both of the big fronts whilst also getting us some Treasury and reducing our Prestige. Money is needed to help pay off for the Mass Levy while we need lower prestige since we should hopefully start winning again.
Edit: At the request of multiple people, I have swapped out the Western Wall Sleeper Cells for something else, in this case another loan for more money and less prestige.
-[X] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels: Establish formal diplomatic ties with the rebels in the Thunder Plateau. If you can absorb them diplomatically back into the kingdom, it would greatly speed the reunification timeline. (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[X] Authority: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[X] Abyss
-[X] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[X] Ruma
-[X] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
--[X] Berba
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)
Here is my plan. Authority on making contact with the Black Sheep anti-rebels while an Influence goes to the Western Wall Sleeper Cells since I don't want to lock up an Authority in that action. An Authority goes to taking out a loan with Abyss since they appear to be well-off and wealthy. The final Influence goes to getting out another loan, this time with Berba because they should be rich after all of the success that they have seen. Finally, the personal action is stress reducing.
This should help with both of the big fronts whilst also getting us some Treasury and reducing our Prestige. Money is needed to help pay off for the Mass Levy while we need lower prestige since we should hopefully start winning again.
Edit: At the request of multiple people, I have swapped out the Western Wall Sleeper Cells for something else, in this case another loan for more money and less prestige.
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I think we should do it now. We need that in order to have a real peace conversation with them and get out of a 3 front war.
I like this reallocation.
This is a very interesting possibility for the coming turn.
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I tend to be slightly/somewhat against, because of the first -Influence, followed by a possible second -Influence if we take another unfavorable deal. I see it as: either we take a prestige-reducing deal (and are likely to lose a second Influence dice) or we don't and there's no change from just beating them back normally anyway.
Highlanders are unlikely to cause increased prestige upon our victory against them, so I'm less worried about that.
But it's a tough call (especially considering the bad tendency to punt the Highlanders' diplomacy indefinitely), and I'm not strongly against, just slightly/somewhat.
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Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
Almost two thousand years so far!
It is things like this that just casually show how absurdly old and stable Ymaryn Empire was.Almost two thousand years so far!
The Not!Roman Emoire rises and falls - the Ymaryn- who were these newcomers.
Hmmm...
Reallocating forces sounds good as well.
@Oshha - should we do it this or next turn to end Highlander conflict?
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- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I think we should consider going it next turn depending on how much Influence and Prestige we get this turn, but right now, I don't want to risk the potential loss of Influence.
On the other hand a decisive victory against Highlanders should give us influence...
Edit:
Thinking more about it, let's give Dafydd one turn more with the whole army to press BS.
[X] Plan Oshha
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I think many approaches are okay this turn, so I'll likely be approval voting.
[X] Plan Oshha
(Plan Oshha is similar enough to my earlier proposal, so I'll be dropping that one.)
(This isn't really an argument for or against your approach. It's true, of course, that we'd prefer to take Influence-reducing actions when we're at max possible, rather than less, but we're also fairly close to max possible at the moment.)
[X] Plan Oshha
(Plan Oshha is similar enough to my earlier proposal, so I'll be dropping that one.)
Note that, since political will is capped at 10, the max net Influence we can gain this turn is 1.
(This isn't really an argument for or against your approach. It's true, of course, that we'd prefer to take Influence-reducing actions when we're at max possible, rather than less, but we're also fairly close to max possible at the moment.)
The Highlanders aren't taken very seriously, so I wouldn't count on it.
[x] Plan Close a second front
-[x] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[x] Authority: Shift Deployment: The Mass Levy is large and unwieldy. Changing circumstances require a shift in deployment patterns. (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
-- 60k from Black Sheep (leaving them with 610k) and 15k from reserves (15k remaining), 40k to Western Wall (we'd have 310k + Banner companies, versus their 300k), 35k to Highlanders (total 65k).
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Berba (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[x] Influence: Diplomatic Contact, Highlanders: What have the Highlanders gotten up to in these last thousand years? Do you even care so long as they stay in their hills? (???% 1 Year. Possible -Influence)
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)
To get all I want I had to do overtime, but I want to resolve the highlanders next turn, and I want the double loan so we can start building ships again if things go well. I also accept the deployment advise given for a more complex redeployment.
Edit - I have been talked around on overtime. We can borrow more next turn.
-[x] Authority: Establish Contact, Black Sheep Rebels (Narrative%. 1 Year. !)
-[x] Authority: Shift Deployment: The Mass Levy is large and unwieldy. Changing circumstances require a shift in deployment patterns. (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
-- 60k from Black Sheep (leaving them with 610k) and 15k from reserves (15k remaining), 40k to Western Wall (we'd have 310k + Banner companies, versus their 300k), 35k to Highlanders (total 65k).
-[x] Influence: Seek Loan: Berba (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige)
-[x] Influence: Diplomatic Contact, Highlanders: What have the Highlanders gotten up to in these last thousand years? Do you even care so long as they stay in their hills? (???% 1 Year. Possible -Influence)
-[X] Personal: Relax with Family (-Stress)
To get all I want I had to do overtime, but I want to resolve the highlanders next turn, and I want the double loan so we can start building ships again if things go well. I also accept the deployment advise given for a more complex redeployment.
Edit - I have been talked around on overtime. We can borrow more next turn.
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- Location
- Minnesota
[x] Plan Close a second front
I am strongly against overtime (which would bring Balthazar to 11.1 + Txollan Unification stress). The Highlander war isn't nearly as important as the eventual diplomatic resolution with the Black Sheep (probably inevitable; the conquest deadline is in 6 years and we only hold 1/5th of the settlements), for which Balthazar has a boost (previous analysis, for thread newcomers).
(Everything else in Plan Close a second front, I can get behind.)
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As an addendum and general comparison: we know that Bedwyr had medical problems in the year 1591, during which time he only had 6.9 Stress. That was probably a low dice roll, but it provides a low-end estimate at which problems begin to arise. Bedwyr's end stress level, 14.4 Stress, is the region the players would strongly want to avoid.
Balthazar's Stress tolerance is known to be greater, but it's still a good idea not to raise it any further than the current 9.1 + Txolla Unification Stress, where at all possible.
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The Txolla Unification Stress factor represents the unknown stress incurred between game start, in Year 1588, and 1602, when Balthazar's stress starts being calculable. We don't know what the Txollan Stress factor is; the main message is that 9.1 is an underestimate, and we should be more cautious. To put a figure on it, it might be 3-6 Stress over the 14 years, which would put Balthazar's true Stress level between 12.1 and 15.1 [14.1 to 17.1 after working overtime], estimated. Even with increased stress tolerance, that is a very high level of Stress.
We're forced to assume, for lack of detailed information about their prior challenges, that stress from before game start Year 1588 is around the same for both characters, hence can be ignored for the purposes of comparison (or, equivalently, that Stress starts at zero during game start Year 1588).
(Everything else in Plan Close a second front, I can get behind.)
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...
As an addendum and general comparison: we know that Bedwyr had medical problems in the year 1591, during which time he only had 6.9 Stress. That was probably a low dice roll, but it provides a low-end estimate at which problems begin to arise. Bedwyr's end stress level, 14.4 Stress, is the region the players would strongly want to avoid.
Balthazar's Stress tolerance is known to be greater, but it's still a good idea not to raise it any further than the current 9.1 + Txolla Unification Stress, where at all possible.
...
The Txolla Unification Stress factor represents the unknown stress incurred between game start, in Year 1588, and 1602, when Balthazar's stress starts being calculable. We don't know what the Txollan Stress factor is; the main message is that 9.1 is an underestimate, and we should be more cautious. To put a figure on it, it might be 3-6 Stress over the 14 years, which would put Balthazar's true Stress level between 12.1 and 15.1 [14.1 to 17.1 after working overtime], estimated. Even with increased stress tolerance, that is a very high level of Stress.
We're forced to assume, for lack of detailed information about their prior challenges, that stress from before game start Year 1588 is around the same for both characters, hence can be ignored for the purposes of comparison (or, equivalently, that Stress starts at zero during game start Year 1588).
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A decisive victory means improved logistics for BS.
I find this convincing.