Surprise update!

This was a fantastic chapter, really beautiful and kind of sad. It saddens me that our plan with Hazrabân did not work as I'd hoped it would, but honestly the result was so engaging to read that I can't be too upset. A part of me had really believed that Imrazôr and Elrond would simply be able to overawe him into realising he was wrong, and I think this was a bit of a reality check to my... hubris, in that regard. Hazrabân is still a mortal man, and there is no way to reach into the souls of men and change them but slow, patient love, and even then, ultimately someone cannot change if they do not want to.

However, we've still freed all of the former serfs of Tharbad, and the amount of time Hazrabân spent silent here makes me think this experience has affected him a lot? Whether it is for the better or not, I am unsure at this point, but I suppose we just have to hope. Ultimately, it's up to him to try and become a better man - we can only hold out our hand, and hope he takes it. We have perhaps planted a seed, or maybe hardened his heart, and only time will tell.

As far as other stuff goes, the long anthropology and linguistics digression was fantastic, and I really hope that you never stop doing these @Telamon, you magnificent son of Balrog. In particular, the big about the Beorlings was so sad and yet felt so appropriate, and felt so thematically fitting to the idea of people trapped in cycles of violence through misunderstanding and pride which permeates this story. The suggestion that the home of the Dwarf friends is a future Mount Gram also stuck out to me as a very clever (and somewhat sad) idea, although that puts it surprisingly close to Gundabad. Hopefully we can help avert the presumably unfortunate fate of the Naûdmegin might be averted in this timeline, but we'll see.

In terms of tidings from the rest of Middle Earth, and the arrival of the King's Envoy, interesting news indeed. In particular, the fact that he can inject himself into any expedition we undertake seems troubling, as is the connection to the royal family? It's hard not to draw the connection that he might be a spy, and that the King may have seen straight through what we're intending to do here - create a powerful city-state in the North built around craft and trade, which unites the Middle Men of Eriador in a Mannish-Elven alliance which is stronger than the sum of its parts. The placement of the Gimilkarasai in Lond Daer, which feels kind of bizarre otherwise, makes a lot of sense in this light; simply by being there, they stymie any attempt to turn Lond Daer into an entrepot by their mere presence alone. Of course, this could just be jumping at shadows, but it's a concern.





In terms of plans/votes, I sort of agree with what's been posted here already, and will try to have something up by tonight.

Broadly, I agree with the idea that an Expeditionary Force makes more sense for us right now than the City Guard. Realistically, the way we are going to defeat Mount Gundabad here is not via sheer dint of arms - we would have built our colony more along the lines of a regular Númenórean colony if we had wanted to do this. The path we have embarked on is to forge together an alliance of disparate peoples and lead them into battle - and that means power projection, being able to send a small but capable force into the far reaches of Eriador, is probably more important to us right now than maintaining a larger defensive force close to home. It might also make sense of have a militia as insurance, but it depends how many slots we can spare.

Lastly, I am very worried about the Daughters of Vâr being on the move. It now feels like they may be the spanner thrown into the workings of our half-built machine by the Enemy. If they attack and devastate the lands of the Naûdmegin, then we've just lost probably the strongest human member-state of our fledgling alliance. There's a limit to what we can do here, and trying to change the mind of a Dwarf who is set on a course of action is uh, a pretty tall order. (Though notably it happened with Thorin Oakenshield, if only at the point of death.) But I wonder if we should at least try and see if there is some resolution here?

If Durin's sons could demonstrate that they do not have the Ring, and help set Vâr's bones right, or perhaps give a convincing account of where they were lost, would this help? Probably not! But curiosity and the sheer incoming train that the Blacklocks now represent to our alliance kind of compels me to try and learn more, at least. We have some credit with Froin now, because we've done what he asked. Let's spend it, and find out more about this.
 
One of the reasons to favor the City Guard over the Expeditionary Force is that it's the single most popular action we could possibly take (tied with Seeking Elvish Friendship, which I'm wary of unless Cairion reveals Faithful sympathies, in which case go for it), and while wisdom is not necessarily popular, sometimes - often - it is! We really do need to do something about the "foul mood" of our people, and the spectacle of splendidly armed and armored men (thanks, Cairion!) in the city where they can be seen would both make them feel safer and also actually make them safer from raids. Meanwhile, no Speakers are behind the Expeditionary Force, and I'm not sure it does what its proponents think it does - it reads less like the vanguard of an alliance's great host and more like it would beat the bounds and could potentially stand in for a Hero in exploring ruins like Nargil-Dum or Nelchrost.

We could, in principle, take the militia, city guard, and expeditionary force all at once, going all-in on military preparedness. Might look something like:

[] Plan Of Arms and the Dwarf
-[] Expand the Militia
-[] Establish a City Guard
-[] Form an Expeditionary Force
-[] The Doors of the Dwarves
--[] Give Aid to the Gate-Guard
-[] Send an Envoy to the Byriaig of Eregion
--[] Inzilbeth
-[] Clanmoot of the Dwarf-Friends
--[] Imrazor
-[] Ironbark
--[] Barazir
-[] The Land of the Ringmakers

High King quest gets bumped back and our chief diplomat (yes, Captain, that's basically what you are) gets shifted to the action where making a good first impression is important. She could also be shifted to Doors of the Dwarves because that action is also important, but I think that Froin's going to be best pleased by our aid to the middle-men and to his own garrison anyway. And he was not overly impressed by highfalutin personages last time we met.
 
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Unfortunately, I don't have much time to make or argue for plans, but I'd like to express an opinion that we really need to either build ships or choose options that immediately prepare us for building ships. Getting that shipwright was the single biggest investment the guild of Shapers made into this colony - enough to put us into a literal centuries-long debt. We really need to show that we're making good on it to the auditor.
 
Unfortunately, I don't have much time to make or argue for plans, but I'd like to express an opinion that we really need to either build ships or choose options that immediately prepare us for building ships. Getting that shipwright was the single biggest investment the guild of Shapers made into this colony - enough to put us into a literal centuries-long debt. We really need to show that we're making good on it to the auditor.
Without an accord with Ironbark, building a Ship necessarily means cannibalizing our existing ships and reducing our (already limited by lack of amenities) ability to transport immigrants from Numenor. This could be a worthwhile trade-off! Building a Ship was popular last turn and leaning into Numenoreans' cultural pride in their seamanship could be another offset to the fear of death, though it doesn't seem any Speakers actually support it this turn. And if our lack of amenities is going to limit immigration from the Gift, limiting it further would not seem to be a great loss.

We did finish the shipyard last turn, though not the Great Harbor. And I don't think we can do the Great Harbor. It requires a Shaper Hero, i.e., Uriphel or Imrazor, but Uriphel is busy in Tharbad and Imrazor is going to the vales of Hoarwell in all the extant plans.

EDIT: thinking of ships, has an ent ever actually been on the Sea? Could our Ship take an ent to sea? What might Ironbark glean from such an experience?
 
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Without an accord with Ironbark, building ships necessarily means cannibalizing our existing ships and reducing our (already limited by lack of amenities) ability to transport immigrants from Numenor. We did finish the shipyard, though not the Great Harbor. And I don't think we can do the Great Harbor. It requires a Shaper Hero, i.e., Uriphel or Imrazor, but Uriphel is busy in Tharbad and Imrazor is going to the vales of Hoarwell in all the extant plans.
Well, it's all well and good to not repeat the mistakes of past Numenor colonies and to practice sustainable forestry in agreement with the steward of the forest and all that jazz - but I am just going to say it now, we are really, really, truly, 100% not going to like what happens if Cairion decides we're wasting their investment. If we do not reach that agreement soon, we may end up having to pick our poison between cutting the forest as is and displeasing our sponsors, and while picking the latter would probably be a popular choice, it would very much be an action with consequences.

Maybe disassembling ships will be a workable compromise if we can't get the timber on our own, though.
 
well it been 24 hours so I am gonna drop my plan this is nearly the same as zimmer plan except expand the militia was traded out for forming a expeditionary force arugments for taking expeditionary force below

[X] Plan Explore/Engage with Eregion
-[X] Form An Expeditionary Force:
-[X] Establish a City Guard
-[X] The Doors of the Dwarves
--[X] Give Aid to the Gate-Guard
-[X] The High-King
--[X] Inzilbeth
-[X] Send an Envoy to the Byriaig of Eregion
-[X] Clanmoot of the Dwarf-Friends
--[X] Imrazor
-[X] Ironbark
--[X] Barazir
-[X] The Land of the Ringmakers

Broadly, I agree with the idea that an Expeditionary Force makes more sense for us right now than the City Guard. Realistically, the way we are going to defeat Mount Gundabad here is not via sheer dint of arms - we would have built our colony more along the lines of a regular Númenórean colony if we had wanted to do this. The path we have embarked on is to forge together an alliance of disparate peoples and lead them into battle - and that means power projection, being able to send a small but capable force into the far reaches of Eriador, is probably more important to us right now than maintaining a larger defensive force close to home. It might also make sense of have a militia as insurance, but it depends how many slots we can spare.
skyippy has not endosred this plan to my knowledge I just quoted them cause they had a good arugment for expeditionary force
this I really think we should take since we are gonna need to go on a lot of expediton to help the middlemen, deal with the orc threat, find cool treasure ect. The shaper will also approve of this so we can get more knowledge about thing cool stuff and the shaper will see this as us following their goals of finding cool stuff getting new knowledge ect. Again this will just be super useful to securing our intrest in the regions to and helping protect the middlemen. It also gives us much more leeway and mobility in acting in the region allowing us to send large forces to deal with problems far out finnaly starting to get a professial offensive force in the region for our use

Meanwhile, no Speakers are behind the Expeditionary Force, and I'm not sure it does what its proponents think it does - it reads less like the vanguard of an alliance's great host and more like it would beat the bounds and could potentially stand in for a Hero in exploring ruins like Nargil-Dum or Nelchrost.
[] Form An Expeditionary Force: Create a group of trained soldiers, armed and equipped with the best the city has to offer, for the purpose of more ably securing your interests in Eriador. Such a group might delve ancient ruins, or scatter orcish strongholds.
it says it creates groups of armed trained soliders that are armed and equipped with the best the city has to offer and says they can be used to scatter orcish strongholds while yes it says it can be used for exploring to the fact that spefically also calls them out being the best of the best that can be used to scatter orcish strongholds which a simple exploration force would not be able to do that, hence why they seem like a vanguard force too. Also it could get us another action too which would be great.

edit: also securing our intrests in the regions sounds a lot like a force with great power projections too a vanguard
 
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The shipwright and shipyard is sort of a long-term investment. Honestly a lot of how we built our economy is very much longterm investments. Although the shipwright dude is quite elderly, IIRC, so we probably don't want to wait too long. :V

Right now, I need to catch up with what we've built and haven't built. But as far as I recall, our pressing priority in terms of infrastructure was that we need to actually start building workshops/smithies so we can making the skilled crafts which are the whole USP for our colony. (I can't recall if we've started the Shaper's Hall? But we also need goldsmiths, foundries, etc..) Fundamentally our whole pitch is that the Middle Men can trade us a lot of raw materials - including timber for ships - if we trade them wonderful jewellery, amazing tools that never break, and fantastic steel armour, etc.. This is probably the fastest way for our colony to gain wealth and become more attractive for colonists. Absolutely, in future it's vital for us to have more ships, but in order for those to make sense, we need to have cargoes to put on them, so I might prioritise that first.

Also, someone can correct me here, as well as the one Great Ship we have captained by Inzilbeth, I believe we also have a number of smaller trading vessels? (EDIT: Ah yes, fourteen of them to be exact.)

@Telamon I believe said before when people brought up coppicing as an option that this is simply not how Numenoreans tend to do forestry; they simply arrive in boats, clear-cut an area, and then leave. But if we spend more time learning from the Middle Men, then setting up some forestry operations which won't upset Ironbark as much (perhaps further from the colony, around the cape of Eryn Vorn or somewhere) might be an option to consider. Right now, building one or two extra ships is probably a problem we can deal with as a one-off, but if we want a larger sustainable supply of timber (and we will) it's a problem we have to deal with.

It would also be good to work out how trade will work in the game in a way which is not cumbersome. The expeditions are really exciting and fun, but not the kind of thing we want to do every time we have a cargo of fortified cider and nails to sell to Pelargir. It might be good if added to the "menu" we get each update was something tracking our existing trade routes, whether they were overland or over sea, and how well they were doing, if there is banditry or piracy, etc.. That feels like the easiest way to track it.
 
I don't think ironbark will like even forestry plantations as they are too tame. That is the domain of the entwives who are not here and are in the east. The ents like the wild places uncultivated and untended to by men. I'm not saying we shouldn't set up sustainable forestry we should but that won't appease ironbark.

From the way I see it there really isn't a good option here. Either way ironbark forests are going to change and that's going to piss him off. What I hope we can do is hopefully just convince him to leave and not get enraged by yet another group of men trying to control his forests.
 
Ironbark probably won't like it, but I think there are probably like, degrees of him not liking it, going from "vaguely grumbling about the impatience of men" to "suddenly there are some very oddly human-shaped trees where our lumber camp used to be". It seems likely to me that managed forestry probably pisses him off less than total deforestation. However, the best approach might simply be to find a source of lumber which is further away from Ironbark, so it does not upset him as much.

The cape of Eryn Vorn, as I said, is still heavily wooded, so we could set up a sort of satellite forestry camp there. Admittedly, a lot of the men who live there absolutely hate us, so we'd need to deal with that somehow, but it's not impossible we could bribe/befriend/intimidate some of them. Or simply trade with them for timber, until we slowly learn sustainable forestry ourselves. It would be a whole military/diplomatic thing, but might actually be easier than dealing with Ironbark getting annoyed at us setting up a coppicing operation which we do not ourselves know how to do yet.
 
Ironbark probably won't like it, but I think there are probably like, degrees of him not liking it, going from "vaguely grumbling about the impatience of men" to "suddenly there are some very oddly human-shaped trees where our lumber camp used to be". It seems likely to me that managed forestry probably pisses him off less than total deforestation. However, the best approach might simply be to find a source of lumber which is further away from Ironbark, so it does not upset him as much.

The cape of Eryn Vorn, as I said, is still heavily wooded, so we could set up a sort of satellite forestry camp there. Admittedly, a lot of the men who live there absolutely hate us, so we'd need to deal with that somehow, but it's not impossible we could bribe/befriend/intimidate some of them. Or simply trade with them for timber, until we slowly learn sustainable forestry ourselves. It would be a whole military/diplomatic thing, but might actually be easier than dealing with Ironbark getting annoyed at us setting up a coppicing operation which we do not ourselves know how to do yet.
I don't think ironbark will appreciate any trees being cut down. Think about it, the felling of trees at all to him would be like some creatures killing mute humans, turning them into material and then expecting other humans to not care just because only humans who couldn't talk were killed. Like at the end of the day. The ents consider trees as their friends as in individuals.

And that's sort of the tragic thing with the ents. Like forests I think everyone recognises that they are incredible things to see and experience but at the end of the day people need houses and fuel for fires so it creates this inherent conflict that can't really be solved.
 
The shipwright and shipyard is sort of a long-term investment. Honestly a lot of how we built our economy is very much longterm investments. Although the shipwright dude is quite elderly, IIRC, so we probably don't want to wait too long. :V
On the one hand, yes, the Shipwright is a long-term investment, but on the other hand, as I understand it, the concern is that the inspector see us using the Shipwright, not that we set up a whole Arsenal ship-production line right at this moment. It's a judgment call whether we think having finished the shipyard will be sufficient on that score, or whether we think that we ought to be seen actually using him to build a Ship (and also whether Cairion is the kind of man who will look kindly on the reason we have delayed building a Ship, i.e., not having yet reached an accord with Ironbark despite reasonable effort, without impasse).

EDIT: it may or may not be significant that Cairion is named for ships :V

Right now, I need to catch up with what we've built and haven't built. But as far as I recall, our pressing priority in terms of infrastructure was that we need to actually start building workshops/smithies so we can making the skilled crafts which are the whole USP for our colony. (I can't recall if we've started the Shaper's Hall? But we also need goldsmiths, foundries, etc..) Fundamentally our whole pitch is that the Middle Men can trade us a lot of raw materials - including timber for ships - if we trade them wonderful jewellery, amazing tools that never break, and fantastic steel armour, etc.. This is probably the fastest way for our colony to gain wealth and become more attractive for colonists. Absolutely, in future it's vital for us to have more ships, but in order for those to make sense, we need to have cargoes to put on them, so I might prioritise that first.
If I recall correctly, we've finished the Shaper's Hall and the shipyard. But in point of fact, we weren't given the opportunity to build anything other than the Great Harbor, and a Ship, this turn, presumably because we sent Uriphel and her apprentices to Tharbad.

I'll second the request for a list of completed and in-progress construction projects.
 
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The cape of Eryn Vorn, as I said, is still heavily wooded, so we could set up a sort of satellite forestry camp there. Admittedly, a lot of the men who live there absolutely hate us, so we'd need to deal with that somehow, but it's not impossible we could bribe/befriend/intimidate some of them. Or simply trade with them for timber, until we slowly learn sustainable forestry ourselves. It would be a whole military/diplomatic thing, but might actually be easier than dealing with Ironbark getting annoyed at us setting up a coppicing operation which we do not ourselves know how to do yet.
I dislike this option, since Eryn Vorn is in the Gimilkarasai's sphere of influence, and if we have to pick between them and Ironbark for a spanner in our timber works, I much prefer the latter. Eryn Vorn is also quite small, so probably not an excellent long-term source of timber anyway; and being far away imposes as many difficulties as it solves.
 
I think it important to kind in mind that with sustainable forestry tree that forest plantations*(this comes with the astritck in areas that have already been clear cutted and destroyed then doing doing mass planting ideally in a random pattern similar to trees to life effort to replant caledion forest in scotland) are not sustainable forestry they are quite bad for the environment and I don't think ironbark would apprecite it because of that. The ideal world of susitanble forestry in my mind is bassicly getting rid of tree that mimick the natural enviroment cutting down trees that are dying, replanting in random pattern, clear cutting even in small areas is okay since it mimics fires or landslides in some aspects ect
www.rainforest-alliance.org

What is Sustainable Forestry?

Sustainable forestry balances the needs of the environment, wildlife, and communities—supporting decent incomes while conserving forests.

edit: I was also rereading the Doom of men update and god I really hope bazird adopted kid becomes a hero we could use cause I love both there charcarters a ton and the kid just great
 
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On the one hand, yes, the Shipwright is a long-term investment, but on the other hand, as I understand it, the concern is that the inspector see us using the Shipwright, not that we set up a whole Arsenal ship-production line right at this moment. It's a judgment call whether we think having finished the shipyard will be sufficient on that score, or whether we think that we ought to be seen actually using him to build a Ship (and also whether Cairion is the kind of man who will look kindly on the reason we have delayed building a Ship, i.e., not having yet reached an accord with Ironbark despite reasonable effort, without impasse).

EDIT: it may or may not be significant that Cairion is named for ships :V

If I recall correctly, we've finished the Shaper's Hall and the shipyard. But in point of fact, we weren't given the opportunity to build anything other than the Great Harbor, and a Ship, this turn, presumably because we sent Uriphel and her apprentices to Tharbad.

I'll second the request for a list of completed and in-progress construction projects.

Oh yeah, good point, that's why we can't do any major construction projects!

Then honestly, now is probably a good time for ship building, since there's not much else we can do. As you say, it may help us with Prince Cairon if we look busy. :V

I dislike this option, since Eryn Vorn is in the Gimilkarasai's sphere of influence, and if we have to pick between them and Ironbark for a spanner in our timber works, I much prefer the latter. Eryn Vorn is also quite small, so probably not an excellent long-term source of timber anyway; and being far away imposes as many difficulties as it solves.

So I agree with you about the potential difficulties here, but I'm not sure how much easier it's going to be with Ironbark. Eryn Vorn is bigger than the total land area we control now, and accessible by water, meaning that sending timber by sea should be fairly easy. The one saving grace of the Gimilkarasai is that they seem to view most of the local Middle Men with contempt. They might get angry with us trading with the inhabitants of the Blackwood, but they might also not care. Hard to say.

Anyway, I mostly think we should investigate all our options; I agree with you that there are some difficulties here, and I'm not sold on it myself.

I think it important to kind in mind that with sustainable forestry tree that forest plantations*(this comes with the astritck in areas that have already been clear cutted and destroyed then doing doing mass planting ideally in a random pattern similar to trees to life effort to replant caledion forest in scotland) are not sustainable forestry they are quite bad for the environment and I don't think ironbark would apprecite it because of that. The ideal world of susitanble forestry in my mind is bassicly getting rid of tree that mimick the natural enviroment cutting down trees that are dying, replanting in random pattern, clear cutting even in small areas is okay since it mimics fires or landslides in some aspects ect
www.rainforest-alliance.org

What is Sustainable Forestry?

Sustainable forestry balances the needs of the environment, wildlife, and communities—supporting decent incomes while conserving forests.

edit: I was also rereading the Doom of men update and god I really hope bazird adopted kid becomes a hero we could use cause I love both there charcarters a ton and the kid just great

This is a really good point, but again, I'd say that it's probably a matter of degrees? Intensively utilised coppiced forests do not replicate the full biodiversity of old-growth woodland where large herbivores like aurochs or bison can naturally break up trees. But they[re still probably better than clear-cutting huge areas and turning them into sheep grazing, which is what we'll be doing otherwise. There's also a range of different forestry techniques which are possible, as you note. And yeah, clear cutting small pockets of forest can actually be helpful because it allows sunlight to get in and increase the average ground temperature, prompting new growth.

Realistically, whatever strategy we use is going to be learnt from whatever the Middle Men/Elves are doing currently, since they're probably the only people we know who practice sustainable forestry. Unless there's some old scroll somewhere we can find.



So anyway, plan time!


[X] Plan Hope For Peace, But Carry a Big Stick
-[X] Form An Expeditionary Force
-[X] Establish a City Guard
-[X] Expand the Militia
-[X] Ironbark (Barazîr)
-[X] Trade with the Middle-Men, Tharbad, or whoever else is offering food in exchange for stone or worked crafts. (Stone and worked goods for grain, so much grain, we need all the grain, oh sweet Eru. Fish/cheese also an option.)
-[X] Northern Embassies
--[X] The Doors of the Dwarves (Imrazôr)
---[X] Give Aid to the Gate-Guard (-1 Supplies)
---[X] Meet with Froin now we have demonstrated our friendship, and speak about the situation with the Blacklocks.
----[X] Straightforwardly and bluntly share our concerns that if the Blacklocks attack the Dwarf-Friends, it will be a catastrophic blow to any potential alliance against Gundabad. Even if the Blacklocks are slain to a dwarf, they must surely take many with them, and the only one who will have cause to be pleased is the Enemy.
----[X] Try and investigate if there is any way to bring the Blacklocks' grudge with the Longbeards to a close. They claim that Durin's heir wears the Ring of their ancestor, Vâr, taken unjustly. Is there any sign or marking which might make this provably false? Offer to act as an arbitrator, and to call any living smiths of Eregion who still dwell in Imladris as expert witnesses. We have no desire to meddle in the affairs of the Dwarves, who are our elders, but if all the daughters of Vâr lie unburied on the foothills of the Misty Mountains next to Dwarf-Friends and Durin's sons, who will be the victor?
----[X] Offer to make our case directly to whoever is properly authorised to hear it. Offer that we are a friend of Elrond, if the Dwarves of Khazad-dûm still remember his name in friendship.
--[X] Clanmoot of the Dwarf-Friends (Imrazôr)
---[X] If our diplomacy with the Blacklocks is (likely) unsuccessful, then warn them about what is coming.
--[X] The Blacklocks (Inzilbeth) (-1 Supplies) [Conditional]
---[X] Offer to help feed the Daughters of Vâr, on the condition that they promise not to attack the Dwarf-Friends, who we seek to recruit in common cause against the evil that dwells in Mt. Gundabad, until at least the first snows of winter are seen.
---[X] If the Great Alliance we are building is able to defeat Gundabad, we vow that Vâr's daughters shall be able to set their ancestors' bones right. Invite them to join our alliance.
---[X] Ask if anything other than total annihilation might lead them to see their grudge with the Longbeards settled, and how they are so absolutely certain that it was Durin III and not the Enemy who took the Ring of Vâr. Do not say they are in the wrong, and do not offend them, but do not dissimulate either.

So, rationale!

This is a plan which attempts to juggle a lot of plates and will almost certainly drop some of them. Bluntly, after @Zimmerwald1915 observantly noticed that the Blacklocks were heading towards the Dwarf-Friends, I am really worried about a looming catastrophe. If the Blacklocks attack the Dwarf-Friends, then suddenly the strongest and best-equipped faction of Middle Men are broken as a force. Probably the Dwarves of Khazad-Dum will end up bloodied as well, as they will be forced into the field to defend their allies. Indeed, on consideration, this feels like a really shrewd move by the Blacklocks; after a siege has failed, they are looking for a way to force the Longbeards into a field battle, where they may correctly believe they can fight on equal or advantageous terms.

Whilst this is speculation, it is the only strategic objective that makes sense for the Blacklocks to be heading north, so I strongly suspect it is true. The potential cost is so big that I think it forces our hand even if we're missing something.

However, the Blacklocks explicitly have massive beef with Gundabad, and the chance of redirecting their anger at the actual legitimate target here could turn a huge problem into a huge asset for our war effort. Whilst this probably won't work, as we are fighting against both Dwarf stubbornness and the effects of a Ring here, I think we have to try. And with the way we have structured this, we are still demonstrating our friendship to Froin, and if things fall through with the Blacklocks, then we can at least say "we tried".

This is also a plan where we sort of bend the edges of the possible in our effort to avert a catastrophe. We are sending Imrazôr to do three things because they are all, technically, en route to the Dwarf-Friends Clanmoot, so he should logically be able to stop off at the Western Gate and with the Blacklocks on his way. We are promising both sides more supplies than we currently have to demonstrate our friendship; and trading in the hope that we can get them in time. If you have a problem with this @Telamon, then design a trade system which does not require us to spend action slots each turn, and I promise I won't do it again! :V

If we want to have any hope of being taken seriously at all then I think we must offer to supply the Blacklocks, and this means we have to supply the Gate Guard, both so that we retain neutrality, and because I imagine that Froin will be put in a difficult position even entertaining what we're asking. There is arguably a version of the plan where we don't supply anyone, and are still thereby neutral, but I think then we probably aren't putting our money where our mouth is. Dwarves are straightforward.

Ultimately, if all our attempts at diplomacy here end up as words on the wind - and I fully admit they likely will - we have lost a single action slot. We still build a friendship with the Longbeards, attend the Clanmoot, start the High King quest, and do other things to secure our position, regardless. But if there is even a chance that we might be able to divert this oncoming train, at relatively little risk to ourselves, isn't it worth trying?

EDIT: The plan has been edited in response to discussion. See here.
 
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I'll post to a greater extent later, but ultimately I agree with the sentiment behind the construction of Skippy's plan. Better to die on a hill of optimistic altruism than live on one made of bitter cynicism.

[X] Plan Hope For Peace, But Carry a Big Stick
 
@Skippy Correct me if I'm wrong/missed something obvious, but doesn't your plan (conditionally) use two units of supplies when we only have one?
You are correct. That's why there's that bit about scrambling to trade for grain from literally anyone selling it. One of the core tenets of that plan is trying to promise the world in hopes of peace up-front, and scrabbling like madmen behind the scenes to carve our good intentions into reality.
 
Can we write in that much? That smacks me of attempting to micro-manage things a bit too much.

We have done for the last two plans, and given the eleven thousand word update, I don't think putting a bit of detail into what is quite a tricky piece of diplomacy is necessarily out of line. But of course if @Telamon is unhappy with it, he can let us know.

EDIT:

Actually, checking, the write-in for the second-to-last update was over a hundred words longer than this one, so based on precedent I think it's probably okay. 😅

Also, god, that was in January 2022. This Quest just keeps coming back, stronger than ever, like Emperor Palpatine.
 
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Taking @Zimmerwald1915's plan here.

[X] Plan Engage with Eregion
-[X] Expand the Militia
-[X] Establish a City Guard
-[X] The Doors of the Dwarves
--[X] Give Aid to the Gate-Guard
-[X] The High-King
--[X] Inzilbeth
-[X] Send an Envoy to the Byriaig of Eregion
-[X] Clanmoot of the Dwarf-Friends
--[X] Imrazor
-[X] Ironbark
--[X] Barazir
-[X] The Land of the Ringmakers
 
How did you guys think our plan from the previous turn go? Seem like it went pretty well to me

It seems like the jury is still out on whether we changed Harzaban's mind or not, but we achieved all of our substantive foreign policy objectives. Tharbad is now being secured as a fortress guarding our northern approaches, the local Middle Men are no longer serfs, whilst we've gained a much better appreciation of the lay of the land an begun to build friendships with many peoples.

There's sort of a pattern in this Quest where we set out with quite ambitious foreign policy goals, and then find out that every problem we try to solve has two more hiding behind it, or is more complex than we initially hoped... but we still make some progress. That's sort of my goal with this plan; I am not hugely optimistic that we can convince the Blacklocks to shift from their destructive course. But if we can make the attempt whilst risking little, and build friendship with Khazad-dûm anyway whatever happens, then it seems worthwhile to try.
 
[X] Plan Engage with Eregion
-[X] Expand the Militia
-[X] Establish a City Guard
-[X] The Doors of the Dwarves
--[X] Give Aid to the Gate-Guard
-[X] The High-King
--[X] Inzilbeth
-[X] Send an Envoy to the Byriaig of Eregion
-[X] Clanmoot of the Dwarf-Friends
--[X] Imrazor
-[X] Ironbark
--[X] Barazir
-[X] The Land of the Ringmakers

Upon reflection, I prefer this over Skippy's plans. I rather have solidarity than split the vote with one of my proposed plans.
 
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