So finding one AND doing something creative once we've found it. Hmmmm.
*Goes away and plots.*
fasquardon
Time of the Gods: Into the Amber Age
- Thread starter Powerofmind
- Start date
- Original
So finding one AND doing something creative once we've found it. Hmmmm.
*Goes away and plots.*
fasquardon
- Location
- Hell
Pandemonious Ivy
Panties, Revolution. Big Drawers. Parachute.
A' 'ight
His plan has a monster. It also has us playing to our strengths, and not our enemy's.
Tl;dr: Nothing personal, I was going to vote for his plan once I caught up to the thread anyway.
ThatGazzer
Minds Eye Bind
- Location
- PNW
- Pronouns
- They/Them
[X] ninjafish
I rolled some dice for this one.
Full disclosure.
I rolled some dice for this one.
Full disclosure.
- Pronouns
- It/They
Thank you for being smarter than the average bear.
Ambrosia is limited to 1 during the turn; at the end of the turn, we can drink as much as we want. So we can't use ambrosia to effectively raise our sustenance cap by more than 10, but we can use it to refill sustenance to cap at end-of-turn.
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- It/They
[X] Plan Attrouska, The Night Has Come For You!
I'm not surprised.
Just resigned.
chocolote12
A Penguin Flailing Against The Keyboard Of Life.
[X] Plan Attrouska, The Night Has Come For You!
[X] veekie
Abby Normal
High Clerk of the Ymaryn
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Do you still have the quote? I'd had that at base shrine rating, not half, iirc, and i was fairly sure that was based on word of PoM...
Good to know =D
Pretty sure we already knew those first two (they're what i had thought at least
), but ok I assume those are from past updates, and they look right--almost everything is DC 40 according to PoM and my annotation-found info
That said, while i do agree that Nox DC's are probably just DC 60, it could be higher-- @Powerofmind any chance you can chime in on that?
Err...no. I'm not sure how you got those numbers, honestly...Unless i'm confused, these probabilities are for a turn where we use one moonlight action?
So i'm not sure where you get these numbers...
Inf 5 means +10 to roll.
No bonus: final roll <40. Chance: 26% [From table lookup, but to double check: with Inf 5, base roll needs to value at 29 or less. Matching rolls: 2 [1%], 3 [2%], 4 [3%], 5 [4%], non-crit 6 [4%], 7 [6%], non-crit 8 [6%] = 1+2+3+4+4+6+6 =26%]
At least +5 Bonus: Final roll 40+. Chance: 74% [Table lookup, confirmed as complement of the last line]
At least +10 Bonus: Final roll 60+. Chance 56%
At least +15 Bonus: Final roll 80+. Chance 37% [This is where i get really confused, because you overestimated the others, but understimated this...]
At least +20 Bonus: Final roll 100+. Chance: 16%
Joint probabilities really do suck D=
Ok, turn we do 2 moonlight actions:
Both Moonlights Fail (No Bonus): 6.76% [Joint probability of two 26% chances, per Probability Calculator
One fail, One succeed (At least +5 Bonus): 38.48% chance [Two 74% chances, either A or B occur]
Exactly +5 Bonus (One fails, other Minor success): 4.68 * 2 -> 9.36% [26% Fail chance, 18% chance of Minor but not moderate (74-56), A AND B occur. doubled for symmetry)
At Least +5 Bonus (Either or both succeed): 93.24% [Two 74% chances, A and/or B occur.]
At Least +10 Bonus: 83.88% [Summing the two events below, which should be how this works? like you said, these probabilities are confusing...]
-One fails, Other hits DC 60: 14.56% *2 -> 29.12% [26% fail chance and 56% DC 60 chance both occur --Doubled for symmetry]
-Both Pass DC 40: 54.76% [Two 74% chances, both occur]
Hmm... Yeah, these percentages are confusing. I might edit in a "moonlight success" calculator to my python script; that does it the hard way so its easier to calculate
For Nox: Assuming DC 60, with Inf 5 and no other bonus:
56% chance. Oddly enough, the 65% chance you gave is in fact the chance of it if it got +10 from Moonlight (...Does moonlight boost Nox? I feel like it could, because related affinities, or it could not, because light shouldn't help darkness)
As for Rain:
So with +10 from moonlight, total weak bonus is +20. Looking at my charts with skill level =10 for equal chances:
(Note: This is one single roll)
-Failing (Modified roll <40): Chance 13%
-Minor Success or more (Mod. Roll 40+): Chance 87%
-Moderate Success or more (Mod. Roll 60+): Chance 65%
-Major Success or more (Mod. Roll 80+): Chance 46%
-Major Success I or more (Mod.Roll 100+): Chance 23%
...I'm kind of amazed that you got the major success chance right but none of the others... how?
Well...she wont ever be rolling a DC 40 check with that -2 Strong penalty; that penalty is only for opposed checks, not DC checks. I think my opposed chances function is accurate, so the W-T-L percentages between an Inf 5 God and an Inf 5 spirit should be:
52.32%-19.75%-27.93%
(Remembering that opposed success thresholds are: Diff: [0, 9] - tie, [10,19] - minor, [20, 39] - moderate, and then the normal 20 point thresholds)
So pretty good, overall...actually that seems higher than i remember; take those with a grain of salt, i think i might not have finished this function. I'll check over it and say whether its right in my next post, along with the moonlight success function info
So overall, you overestimated our odds, but they're still fairly good...assuming the crone can't contest them directly... @Powerofmind does a spirit need to have a related/opposing affinity to directly contest elemental attacks? Because if each of the moonlights are opposed contests, then the numbers change a lot i think... and get more complicated by far.
Abby Normal
High Clerk of the Ymaryn
- Pronouns
- He/Him
@Powerofmind quick question, just to confirm
In contested rolls, is it
Difference [0, 9] is a tie, [10,19] is a minor success to the winner
or
Difference [0, 10] is a tie, [11,19] is a minor success to the winner
?
In contested rolls, is it
Difference [0, 9] is a tie, [10,19] is a minor success to the winner
or
Difference [0, 10] is a tie, [11,19] is a minor success to the winner
?
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
Nope. Not a chance at all until you try it.That said, while i do agree that Nox DC's are probably just DC 60, it could be higher-- @Powerofmind any chance you can chime in on that?
Yes. Without having appropriate voodoo, a divine can only defend with passive penalties.
The first. It's always [multiple of ten] to [two multiples of ten higher minus one]. The contested tie rules just make it one multiple instead of two.
Abby Normal
High Clerk of the Ymaryn
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's what i thought for all of those, thanks--just wanted to confirm, before i fixed the error in my opposed check function where it used [0,10]
Also, can you confirm whether the main shrine defense bonus is [Shrine + <1 if holy place>] or [Shrine/2 + <1 if Holy Place>], or something else?
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
It's the latter.
Abby Normal
High Clerk of the Ymaryn
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Thanks. Fixed that, and added some unsorted bits of info you've shared recently to my Mechanics post.
The chain of logic went: "Well, if I wrote an excel table with one row for EVERY single possible dice roll result, added a +20 for doubles, added all the modifiers and then sorted the result, the probability would be 100-Number of rows which don't meet the target number"
But the gist before I surrendered to bed was that
It brought Enuff Dakka. Double Moonlight really changes things.
(And then I woke up from a nightmare where I was chased by cumulative tigers urgh, back to bed now)
- Location
- Hell
Unless it fails in which case you are vindicated but now now have absolutely no Sustenance to spare to create Monsters with and super reduced Fear
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
[X] veekie
Actually, sharks are very bad at killing and very good at eating- humans get attacked and lose legs and shit but survive, because unlike most predators, sharks don't bother to kill you before they get to the omnomnoming, where if a tiger or whatever eats you it killed you first.
Anyways, sorry, ninjafish, I'd rather go on the attack here. Considered trying to make a plan for such in earnest last turn.
Actually, sharks are very bad at killing and very good at eating- humans get attacked and lose legs and shit but survive, because unlike most predators, sharks don't bother to kill you before they get to the omnomnoming, where if a tiger or whatever eats you it killed you first.
Anyways, sorry, ninjafish, I'd rather go on the attack here. Considered trying to make a plan for such in earnest last turn.
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- Pronouns
- It/They
Wells that even better, they strike fear in people without flat out killing them.
People can't be afraid if they're dead.
Also sharks are insanely long lived as a vertebrate organism, they are very good at surviving extinctions and such.
Which is why I want to use them as base.