Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

[Arkeus]

Why train FSS on turn 3? Ling Qi can master it in 4 AP in turn 4.

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Not if things don't change. We'd be 50~ successes short, and given that FSS has a 2.6!! multiplier the variance is huge. We could set EPC drip to it and do it that way, but given how FSS gives us more successes/AP than any other arts it's the worst art to put EPC drip to. Much better to do an extra action in turn 3 for it and end up with 200~ overflow lol (which is more than what we'd get in a base cultivation AP).

 

[Mr.rodent]

Wait....curly hair, brown skin, water?! Goht dammit were katara arent we.

I should have known when Lanlan was an azula expy.

Were even tied to the moon.

 

[Black Noise]

1c) The goal of this turn's Archive Dive, I think, is to find something with dispel and dispel resistance, or those skill keywords we don't have yet on Arts we want to learn - I think a big one is Resilience?

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The goal is resilience (spiritual armor) and resist (making sure our arts aren't dispelled), and both are based on Resolve.

Dispel (offensive or self-focused to remove debuffs) remains a poor choice since it's intelligence-based[1], and we just aren't going to have the spare xp to rise it to a respectable level. Much better to leave it up to Sixiang and Zhengui with TRF as fallback, while focusing our own efforts on very high defenses to we'd be much harder to tag with debuffs in the first place.

[1] unless by some chance we get access to Sixiang's trick that lets them use Presence for dispels. Then it would be worth at least considering.

EDIT: Ideally it'll be a 3 Spine /2 something(which can also be spine) Art since we'll have exactly 3 spare after dropping AS. Arm is in a similar state.

 

[SITB]

Not if things don't change. We'd be 50~ successes short, and given that FSS has a 2.6!! multiplier the variance is huge. We could set EPC drip to it and do it that way, but given how FSS gives us more successes/AP than any other arts it's the worst art to put EPC drip to. Much better to do an extra action in turn 3 for it and end up with 200~ overflow lol (which is more than what we'd get in a base cultivation AP).

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?

6 (talent) + 145 (stones) + 35 (EPC) + 20 (tactical high drugs) + 6 (larency) = 212.

212 × 5/9 (0.555 repeating is equivalent to 5/9) × 4 (actions) × 2.6 (bonuses) = 1224.888888...

It can finish even without EPC drip. Using a bionominal calculator the chances of success are roughly 74.68% without EPC drip.

 

[Arkeus]

?

6 (talent) + 145 (stones) + 35 (EPC) + 20 (tactical high drugs) + 6 (larency) = 212.

212 × 5/9 (0.555 repeating is equivalent to 5/9) × 4 (actions) × 2.6 (bonuses) = 1224.888888...

It can finish even without EPC drip. Using a bionominal calculator the chances of sucess are roughly 74.68% without EPC drip.

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We aren't taking high drugs.

High Drugs means -1GSS+, and even if we do get the death mirror option we can't get full cultivation with GSS for more than a year at best, and that's counting our income. Unless we have a windfall of hundreds of GSS, high drugs are just not worth it.

Considering the high variance of a 2.6 multiplier (pretty sure your calculation doesn't take it into account), it doesn't even have safe odds of getting it... and the overflow itself means that doing one extra action of FSS is good anyway.

 

[SITB]

We aren't taking high drugs.

High Drugs means -1GSS+, and even if we do get the death mirror option we can't get full cultivation with GSS for more than a year at best, and that's counting our income. Unless we have a windfall of hundreds of GSS, high drugs are just not worth it.

Considering the high variance of a 2.6 multiplier (pretty sure your calculation doesn't take it into account), it doesn't even have safe odds of getting it... and the overflow itself means that doing one extra action of FSS is good anyway.

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High drugs is only for the FSS training, so it only costs 10 YSS which is easily absorbed by the Sect stipend, and because of the multipliers one single dice is worth far more when training FSS.

I calculated the Bionominal distribution by taking the total number of successes needed to master FSS and dividing by the bonus, which seems it take the variance into account? If Ling Qi has 462 successes then she masters FSS due to the bonuses (462×2.6= 1201.2).

If I want to add the EPC drip to the calculation I need to subtract it before dividing (so 1200 successes become 1170 and the like).

Also, if Ling Qi doesn't get the Death mirror money by turn 3 (or unable to borrow from Cai Renxiang) she is unlikely to soft-cap EPC on turn 3 anyway.

 

[Arkeus]

High drugs is only for the FSS training, so it only costs 10 YSS which is easily absorbed by the Sect stipend, and because of the multipliers one single dice is worth far more when training FSS.

I calculated the Bionominal distribution by taking the total number of successes needed to master FSS and dividing by the bonus, which seems it take the variance into account? If Ling Qi has 462 successes then she masters FSS due to the bonuses (462×2.6= 1201.2).

If I want to add the EPC drip to the calculation I need to subtract it before dividing (so 1200 successes become 1170 and the like).

Also, if Ling Qi doesn't get the Death mirror money by turn 3 (or unable to borrow from Cai Renxiang) she is unlikely to soft-cap EPC on turn 3 anyway.

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Ah, I see the issue. We can't take High Drugs only for the FSS training. If we take High Drugs, it must be for every single AP of cultivation that turn. Ling Qi's odd of getting 462 successes prior to multiplier with FSS are 60~% I think?

Actually, the minimum GSS available we'll have in Turn 3 is 7GSS, which makes us able to softcap EPC (though with some sacrifices). We could get to 8GSS if our 3 exploration actions nets us some cores to sell.

The current estimation for mirror is to give us 24~ GSS, which is enough for 6 months by itself of 4GSS/month. With our income taken into account, we could get another 3 month out of it, meaning that we could continue for another 3 month... if we don't spend more once arriving in foundation.

Basically, even with mirror money is short.

 

[SITB]

Ah, I see the issue. We can't take High Drugs only for the FSS training. If we take High Drugs, it must be for every single AP of cultivation that turn. Ling Qi's odd of getting 462 successes prior to multiplier with FSS are 60~% I think?

Actually, the minimum GSS available we'll have in Turn 3 is 7GSS, which makes us able to softcap EPC (though with some sacrifices). We could get to 8GSS if our 3 exploration actions nets us some cores to sell.

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The text of the pills says it's per action rather tha week? It's also calculated per action rather than per week. I guess I could ask yrsillar about this later, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to invest in more drugs for a single art.

Alzo, unless my calculations are wrong if Ling Qi turns all her spirit stones into GSS in turn 3 she will remain with 10 YSS, which means she needs to scrounge 40 YSS to reach 8 GSS.

Also my EPC calculation gives (6+135+45+10+6)×3+(6+65+45+10+6)=738

738 × 5/9 * 1.4 =574 Which needs at least 76 EPC successes from drip.


EDIT TO YOUR EDIT: Maybe I am missing something, but I thought that the mirror was worth 13K RSS? Which means 26 GSS and with EPC7 and Ling Qi's income means that she only needs to use 2 GSS worth of money from the mirror payout per month while in appraisal, which means that the mirror lasts 13 months if Ling Qi is in appraisal and doesn't find any more sources of GSS.

 

[Raising Kittens]

The current estimation for mirror is to give us 24~ GSS, which is enough for 6 months by itself of 4GSS/month. With our income taken into account, we could get another 3 month out of it, meaning that we could continue for another 3 month... if we don't spend more once arriving in foundation.

Basically, even with mirror money is short.

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Our base income is 2 GSS/turn at this time; combined with EPC 7 we'll hit 6 GSS/turn, meaning we'll only need to purchase 2 GSS/turn. Our YSS income can be used for incidentals as desired.

Except for next turn, because we won't have EPC 7's virtual GSS, which means we'd need to buy those extra GSS to make up the difference.

With the Mirror selling for the expected ~13k RSS, we can afford to max out on GSS next turn and still have 11 turns of 8 GSS/turn, provided nothing else changes; if it sells for ~12k RSS that's 4 GSS next turn and 2 GSS for ten turns.

I'm hoping that that changes, either via EPC 8, higher Sect rank providing access to a better Vent with virtual GSS and/or a higher stipend, CRX providing a higher stipend according to our cultivation level, finding more loot we can sell, or - ideally - all of the above.

 

[naths]

The text of the pills says it's per action rather tha week? It's also calculated per action rather than per week. I guess I could ask yrsillar about this later, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to invest in more drugs for a single art.

Alzo, unless my calculations are wrong if Ling Qi turns all her spirit stones into GSS in turn 3 she will remain with 10 YSS, which means she needs to scrounge 40 YSS to reach 8 GSS.

Also my EPC calculation gives (6+135+45+10+6)×3+(6+65+45+10+6)=738

738 × 5/9 * 1.4 =574 Which needs at least 76 EPC successes from drip.

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1) we are currently assuming that high pills means we have to do them for everything that turn and the costs are calculated as (AP that used Pills x cost per AP), which at high could result in 20 x 25 RSS = 500 RSS = 1 GSS

2) yes you are right, we are about 40 YSS short of the 8th GSS. Hopefully we will find a way to fix that this turn, but if not then we will only have 7 GSS.

3) yeah, 738 dice sounds about right and with the knowledge that EPC drip probably wont be enough to bridge the gap, we might end up using a 5th AP on EPC in addition to it

 

[Theo Promes]

So since we have another archive dive coming up, and the last one's vote turned from "lets look for perception arts to replace AM" into something of an element free-for-all, I'd like to discuss keyword choices beforehand this time, to perhaps reduce the amount of chaos in the vote.

So, to that end:

Resist and Resilience seem to be the main target right now, if I understand the plans correctly, to help us with spiritual defence. The former helps us to resist enemy attempts to dispel our techniques, while the latter improves our armor against spiritual attacks.

Fortitude is only provided by TRF so far, and since getting a successor for that art is dubious, having another art would be good, it also fits very well with the overall dive approach, looking for defensive arts.

Dispel also got mentioned, I think with the idea that we are phasing out AM, and Sixiang is covering that for now, but might not stick around forever. We are probably looking for particular arts there, continuous dispel or something to work on allies.

Now, the secondary part of the discussion is of course, what Elements we want those arts to focus on. I think the elements are strictly secondary to getting the right kind of arts from the archive dive, so the above keywords strike me as more important. That being said, of course we don't want to branch out into entirely new elements, so we are looking at the usual suspects: Moon, Darkness, Music, Cold, Wind, Wood.

Now, it is debatable which of those work best for what particular art we are looking for, but I think Cold is more offensive, so perhaps less important for this particular dive, and Music and Moon could be argued to be relatively ephemereal and perhaps thus not being a great source of defense either. That being said, the Mother Moon aspect does apparently have a significant shelter component, so as usual, Moon always works. Also, apparently there will inevitably be water everywhere

 

[deadcrystal]

Dispel also got mentioned, I think with the idea that we are phasing out AM

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I mean, I'm hoping the successor to AM doesn't have Argent Pulse as a prereq, and that we can pick that up tbh.

Because the only real problem we have with AM is that it's lower level than our current challenges, and that the keywords are awkward.

Other than that in terms of effects and theming AM is fantastic for us. AM+ with Mountain replaced by Moon would be fantastic.

But that's all dependent on whether we need to complete all phase one argent arts to get it or not.

 

[Koden]

I would like to look for an art to buff our music attacks to replace Argent Current.
Seems the best way to push towards dropping the Argent arts is to to see a more suitable art.

 

[Black Noise]

So since we have another archive dive coming up, and the last one's vote turned from "lets look for perception arts to replace AM" into something of an element free-for-all, I'd like to discuss keyword choices beforehand this time, to perhaps reduce the amount of chaos in the vote.

So, to that end:

Resist and Resilience seem to be the main target right now, if I understand the plans correctly, to help us with spiritual defence. The former helps us to resist enemy attempts to dispel our techniques, while the latter improves our armor against spiritual attacks.

Fortitude is only provided by TRF so far, and since getting a successor for that art is dubious, having another art would be good, it also fits very well with the overall dive approach, looking for defensive arts.

Dispel also got mentioned, I think with the idea that we are phasing out AM, and Sixiang is covering that for now, but might not stick around forever. We are probably looking for particular arts there, continuous dispel or something to work on allies.

Now, the secondary part of the discussion is of course, what Elements we want those arts to focus on. I think the elements are strictly secondary to getting the right kind of arts from the archive dive, so the above keywords strike me as more important. That being said, of course we don't want to branch out into entirely new elements, so we are looking at the usual suspects: Moon, Darkness, Music, Cold, Wind, Wood.

Now, it is debatable which of those work best for what particular art we are looking for, but I think Cold is more offensive, so perhaps less important for this particular dive, and Music and Moon could be argued to be relatively ephemereal and perhaps thus not being a great source of defense either. That being said, the Mother Moon aspect does apparently have a significant shelter component, so as usual, Moon always works. Also, apparently there will inevitably be water everywhere

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While I don't disagree that we should strive to minimize Elemental keywords beyond ensuring we get relevant ones for Arts, I'd like to point out that we've seen Dark, Water(cold/ice), Wood and even Wind arts with armor-like effects, of which only CWY/dark was explicitly noted working with spiritual armor. Basically, I don't think we should worry too much about elements making sense in an armor context.

Instead we should probably focus on the core on which both resist and resilience lie; Resolve. For this I'd say Wood, (cold) Water and Darkness would be my picks (and hopefully we won't end up with anti-stealth arts again).

We should also keep in mind that our Domain Weapon runs off of darkness, and unless the sentiment I'm seeing regarding CWY vs Harmony changes we're only likely to pick up 0.5 of a Dark art out of 3-4 new ones from last dive.

Let's make sure our selection is more darkness-biased this time (or present arguments for why we shouldn't).

 

[wingstrike96]

I would like to look for an art to buff our music attacks to replace Argent Current.
Seems the best way to push towards dropping the Argent arts is to to see a more suitable art.

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Some kind of Army anthem art? Unity, War, Music, Arm

 

[Arkeus]

While I don't disagree that we should strive to minimize Elemental keywords beyond ensuring we get relevant ones for Arts, I'd like to point out that we've seen Dark, Water(cold/ice), Wood and even Wind arts with armor-like effects, of which only CWY/dark was explicitly noted working with spiritual armor. Basically, I don't think we should worry too much about elements making sense in an armor context.

Instead we should probably focus on the core on which both resist and resilience lie; Resolve. For this I'd say Wood, (cold) Water and Darkness would be my picks (and hopefully we won't end up with anti-stealth arts again).

We should also keep in mind that our Domain Weapon runs off of darkness, and unless the sentiment I'm seeing regarding CWY vs Harmony changes we're only likely to pick up 0.5 of a Dark art out of 3-4 new ones from last dive.

Let's make sure our selection is more darkness-biased this time (or present arguments for why we shouldn't).

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I mean, currently we have 4 Darkness arts we are likely to have around (SCS4, FVM3, FSS2, ENM?), 3 moon arts (PLR7, CDE?, SCS1), 3 water arts (FSS3, CDE?, FVM1) 2 wind arts (HDW5, ENM?), 1 wood arts (TRF 4).

I would argue that if we don't pick a wood art for resilience, then we need to look at shelving wood completely. It has only 1 art currently, and it's one we are unlikely to find a successor for unless Cai mama goes through. So this is an opportunity to narrow our element further if we want (take a wind/water art for example and later TRF replacement won't be wood), or it could be an opportunity to commit to wood more deeply.

No matter what we choose, however, Darkness arts are already over represented compared to anything else we have, so unless we want to have a strong primary focus on darkness with anything else being at best secondary we shouldn't get more there.

 

[Theo Promes]

I mean, I'm hoping the successor to AM doesn't have Argent Pulse as a prereq, and that we can pick that up tbh.

Because the only real problem we have with AM is that it's lower level than our current challenges, and that the keywords are awkward.

Other than that in terms of effects and theming AM is fantastic for us. AM+ with Mountain replaced by Moon would be fantastic.

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I think keyword substitution on that elemental level is a significant investment of time for a very uncertain outcome (especially at our level of cultivation). It seems much less risky to just pick up some better-suited arts that fit with our overall elements.

I would like to look for an art to buff our music attacks to replace Argent Current.
Seems the best way to push towards dropping the Argent arts is to to see a more suitable art.

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I mean, you say 'replace' in a way that gives me the impression that we'd need something that gives us something more than AC does, where I'd rather say that we can replace it with literally anything because it gives us nothing at all.
To me, phasing out the argent arts is basically a given, anything else is essentially the sunk cost fallacy, but perhaps I am just misunderstanding your intention here.

While I don't disagree that we should strive to minimize Elemental keywords beyond ensuring we get relevant ones for Arts, I'd like to point out that we've seen Dark, Water(cold/ice), Wood and even Wind arts with armor-like effects, of which only CWY/dark was explicitly noted working with spiritual armor. Basically, I don't think we should worry too much about elements making sense in an armor context.

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You are probably right, that last bit was mostly conjecture on my part - the idea was that we don't want people to vote for "cold/darkness/moon" because it doesn't ensure that we actually get what we want, so ideally folks would pick,say, two of the bold keywords and the one element they find most suitable.

 

[TehChron]

I think keyword substitution on that elemental level is a significant investment of time for a very uncertain outcome (especially at our level of cultivation). It seems much less risky to just pick up some better-suited arts that fit with our overall elements.

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Except its a necessary step to achieving Art Creation, which is necessary for Ling Qi's future prospects as the Head of her Clan in creating a coherent Art Suite for her successors down the line. As well as for when she runs out of Arts to learn and needs to begin developing Arts for herself as expressions of her Domain and Way.

 

[Ayashi]

Except its a necessary step to achieving Art Creation, which is necessary for Ling Qi's future prospects as the Head of her Clan in creating a coherent Art Suite for her successors down the line. As well as for when she runs out of Arts to learn and needs to begin developing Arts for herself as expressions of her Domain and Way.

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" at our level of cultivation".
i'm sure we'll find the time to look into it more once we are ... say, Green 3 ?

 

[Rayous]

So, did FMV lose the "-Instruments wielded by the user may be used to make sound based melee attacks at up to ten meters range. These attacks may be used in conjunction with appropriate arts without interrupting the melody. DV equals manipulation or expression, whichever is higher.-Permanent" ability with the system change?

Nevermind, those moved out of the arts section and onto our cultivation section of the character sheet.

 

[Black Noise]

I mean, currently we have 4 Darkness arts we are likely to have around (SCS4, FVM3, FSS2, ENM?), 3 moon arts (PLR7, CDE?, SCS1), 3 water arts (FSS3, CDE?, FVM1) 2 wind arts (HDW5, ENM?), 1 wood arts (TRF 4).

I would argue that if we don't pick a wood art for resilience, then we need to look at shelving wood completely. It has only 1 art currently, and it's one we are unlikely to find a successor for unless Cai mama goes through. So this is an opportunity to narrow our element further if we want (take a wind/water art for example and later TRF replacement won't be wood), or it could be an opportunity to commit to wood more deeply.

No matter what we choose, however, Darkness arts are already over represented compared to anything else we have, so unless we want to have a strong primary focus on darkness with anything else being at best secondary we shouldn't get more there.

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Practically we're looking at 9-10 arts by Green 2/3. Of those SCS is 4/5 dark (1 moon), FSS is ~2/3 dark (rest water), FVM is ~3/5 dark (music and water taking 1 each). Presumably ENM is also 2/3 dark at most. This means we're looking at 25-30% darkness in our art balance with no more dark arts, or 35/40% with 1/2 dark-leaning arts.

Contrast with 10% wood, ~13% wind, ~20% moon and ~12% water, plus effectively 20% in 2 new arts to be decided.

Now I'm not saying we should be like Xiulan and go for 60%+ darkness, but we have too many elements as it is to go for a balanced approach, so I definitely favor ~40% dark > ~25% moon >> 12% wind/water/wood in terms of art elemental balance.

I mean, the monsters likely favor 1 or 2 of their elements which would result in ~40% focus in their strongest aspect (though they probably get to cheat when it comes to element that feed their domain weapons and can hit like 60-70% there), and we'd still have more than enough other elements to restrain any elemental monofocus.

The question really should be why we'd even consider diluting our focus further across our ~5 elements instead of emphasizing our strengths.

(though I guess a case can be made for moon/darkness as 2 primaries on the ground that we train moon really fast. Less art AP at the cost of a harder time finding arts and slightly less long-term domain weapon power if we can't cheat)

 

[Koden]

I mean, you say 'replace' in a way that gives me the impression that we'd need something that gives us something more than AC does, where I'd rather say that we can replace it with literally anything because it gives us nothing at all.
To me, phasing out the argent arts is basically a given, anything else is essentially the sunk cost fallacy, but perhaps I am just misunderstanding your intention here.

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Well from what i have seen in the thread there are some people who do want to train the argent arts, if only to see what Argent pulse is like.
So my intention is to find arts that fit our build that the thread would want more than them.

 

[veekie]

Well from what i have seen in the thread there are some people who do want to train the argent arts, if only to see what Argent pulse is like.
So my intention is to find arts that fit our build that the thread would want more than them.

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And it's actually a pretty effective strategy.
You can argue all day and not budge anyone on wanting to try it out.

Or you can put something else interesting and steal support piecemeal.

 

[Thor's Twin]

So, there's a lot to look forward to in regards to the next month. 3 exploration rolls (hopefully the New Moon Map provides a bonus, that would be nice), getting to spiritual appraisal, getting a good look at a new art for only 1 AP, 4 sect jobs, and 2 challenge research actions. All in all, I'm very excited for the next month. It's going to be a roller coaster!

 

[Alectai]

4 Exploration rolls actually.

4 plus whatever Shen Hu action qualifies as.