Merkels Operation Walküre

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The biggest problem for the polish leaders is that doing a heel face turn would be political suicide for them personally. Sure, it might be better for Poland. Question is, would all politicians be willing to suicide politically for something that would probably be better for their country, but most definitely not be better for themselves?

I don't think so.
 
What if the Poles elect a new government before the exile government can come back, and that new government then decides to closely cooperate with Germany and declares the exiles illegitimate when they protest?
 
What if the Poles elect a new government before the exile government can come back, and that new government then decides to closely cooperate with Germany and declares the exiles illegitimate when they protest?

I do not think that the general Polish population is sure that the Germans came from the future. Even with all the evidence, something like that is very hard to believe and peace with Stalin only makes it worse. They are afraid of becoming a vassal of Germany or part of the Soviet Union. But that is just my opinion.
 
At first I have to appologize, but I fell ill twice in the last three weeks and had much RL stuff to do as well.

The Polish government, like the other Allied governments, is in a bad situation. At first, they had demanded unconditional surrender for a long time. They want to destroy Germany, at least to a certain degree. To remove Germany as power is clear though. They want to part it and they had led their countries in doing so. They had bound their political carreers to that as well. A turn of 180° won't help them, especially if they had personal and/or national interests involved as well. If they could save their faces, they would accept peace, IF there is no national interest involved.

Churchill wanted to part Germany. He played like a player of the 19th century. And his plan had already failed in 1943 (Danube Federation Donauföderation – Wikipedia). It was the plan to go back to 1866. However, Britain had lost many assets, including great parts of her fleet, in the meantime and the battle of Alta made it decisive for Churchill to make peace. He has played a game and lost. He had done so before and he would have no personal problems with that, at least none to prevent that peace. He was aware that FDR is not only an Ally.

Stalin is using his propaganda and uses the Germans to get money/technology/goods as reparations. In how far his turn is dangerous for him, remains to be seen, but the NKWD is still ruled by Beria. And purges happen in the USSR frrom time to time. So there won't be many to complain loudly.

FDR hates Germany too much and has bound his career too tight on the fight with the Axis, that he can't change now. He still thinks he has two possibilities. One can even work. The other, well,... if the alternative works, there might be some instant sunshine delivered to the USA.

Poland had ever been between a rock and a hard place. And after ww1 they had reclaimed independence, but PO both powerful neighbours. Even after they had an aggressive stand. There were more than one attempt to attack Germany with France. In 1941 they didn't sign the Atlantic Charta without the Caveat, that they could demand East Prussia and Silesia. Some quotes I made here were true for Polish politicians. They are OTL quotes, like Poland can't survive without Königsberg. The Polish population was in that days very catholic and nationalistic. To accept losing territory to Germany for peace would mean endangering their political carreers. Even more, if territory is lost the USSR and Poland became the puppet of one of them, or even both. Even the slightest hint by signing a reparatrions treaty might lead into the end of the carreer as well. That means, there is a lot of reasons, why they continue the war. Even if they have doubts or are even convinced, it will end in a catastrophe. The US made the same mistake in Vietnam, where they didn't stop the war, even though they knew they were losing, as they didn't want to be the first US politicians to lose a war.
 
The Soviets are going to be the best off among the (former) Allies. They get the lion's share of reparation, both in cash and material reparations, and if Stalin really does go Capitalism with Red Flags, then the Soviets are very well-positioned to profit from the reborn EU (especially since Europe will as usual, be very dependent on Russian oil and gas).

Britain will have her share of reparations too, but they've suffered and lost less than the Soviets, and with the Empire falling apart, what they can offer to trade with the EU is less compared to the Soviets.

America will lose hard. I don't think the nation will collapse or anything of the sort, but defeat in Europe and likely a mutilated peace in Asia will likely see a resurgence of isolationism, especially as FDR's dictatorial turn following Overlord's failure would show them just how war somehow puts too much power in the President's hands. They're likely to focus on soft power and deterrence, but will keep their fleets and armies close to home.

In fact, I hazard to say that while the USA will still likely seek to have the world's biggest navy and air force, they're likely to keep the army small as a result of any resurgent isolationism.
 
I do not think that the general Polish population is sure that the Germans came from the future. Even with all the evidence, something like that is very hard to believe and peace with Stalin only makes it worse. They are afraid of becoming a vassal of Germany or part of the Soviet Union. But that is just my opinion.

One show of technology from 2015 and they would belive - people in 1944 was not idiots.

And in OTL Mikołajczyk and socialist try to cooperate with Stalin beliving that Poland could be partially free.Nationalist do not join,becouse were smart enough to undarstandt,that Stalin would use and destroy them.
But new Germany,with fairy-tale technology and without Stalin attitude? all 3 factions would agree to be partially free.They were patriots,but realists.
There would be time to bravely die if Germany decide to copy Stalin,but not before that.
 
One show of technology from 2015 and they would belive - people in 1944 was not idiots.

And in OTL Mikołajczyk and socialist try to cooperate with Stalin beliving that Poland could be partially free.Nationalist do not join,becouse were smart enough to undarstandt,that Stalin would use and destroy them.
But new Germany,with fairy-tale technology and without Stalin attitude? all 3 factions would agree to be partially free.They were patriots,but realists.
There would be time to bravely die if Germany decide to copy Stalin,but not before that.

Yes, I fully agree that a local government would do that but it would have to prove it to 29/26 million people and that will take some time (with Smartphones or solarplants).
There will also be people who refuse to believe it and insist that the others have just been manipulated and people who believe it but still want to win the war. Both groups would be only a minority, but the second group could be just big enough to cause catastrophic problems.

There are people who believe that Hitler's only mistake was that he had lost the war, that Mao Zedong and Stalin were good people, that vaccinations were bad, or that our planet is a disc, so it is not impossible that people are going to continue to fight and soldiers fighting for the freedom of Poland in italy or britain will see it as propaganda of the Nazis anyway.
 
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Germany has recognized the government in exile. They are only talking to them. In Poland the situation is calm. There are enough contacts with the Polish Home Army, so both sides have a kind of truce. Which is especially true in the more eastern parts, as the Germans are considered the only possible defense against the Soviets. BTW, Stalin has already announced, that the territories east of the so called demarcation line are his and that this line is indeed the border.

Because of this there are no plans to form a new Polish government, as the Germans think it would be a bad idea, especially as there is no will of the Polish people to elect a new government. They would not interfere though.

The government in exile is the recognized government and with that the Germans deal. These Polish politicians are not in Poland, they know the situation in Poland not from the first hand, they know, the Germans are from the future but still hope to win the war, as they look on their own careers as well.
 
In my opinion FDR's (assuming success) overthrow of Churchill will do serious damage to USA's diplomatic standing post war. It definitely doesn't look good when your ally does something you don't want and then you subsequently forcibly replace the uncooperative government with puppets.

I am already imagining an earlier and much stronger EU compared to OTL.
 
FDR honestly feels like a caricature

He's getting desperate. Historically, he hated the Germans, and was willing and prepared to commit genocide to remove the German threat once and for all, i.e. the Morgenthau Plan. Even public outrage once news of the Morgenthau Plan only led him to rebrand as JCS 1067, which continued to explicitly state as policy goals the destruction of the German nation, industry, and economy, and reduction by means of starvation the German population to half the pre-war population. Hell, Morgenthau outright told his staff that JCS 1067 was a carbon copy of the Morgenthau Plan.

Now, look at the current situation. Germany is not just back at full strength, but has the multipliers of having scientific and technological advances from over half a century in the future. More than that, they've crushed his long-dreamed Operation Overlord, destroyed the Allied navies in the Atlantic, have won popular sympathy across the world for their refounded United Nations (one key changed from OTL IIRC is that the General Assembly can overrule a Big Five Security Council veto with a majority vote), and have even forced Britain and the Soviet Union to the peace table.

And the Soviets have capitulated, signing a peace treaty and outright telling FDR to fuck off with regard to his 'requests' that US troops be allowed to operate from Soviet soil.

So TBH, I don't particularly find it OOC that FDR's starting to lose it. Not when the grand coalition he's built to crush Germany once and for all is falling apart, and his own country's supposedly-invincible war machine and unrivaled industrial and economic power just isn't enough.
 
Man this is going to be a dark world. Germanys economy is going to be in ruins. They will probably still win the war... but the allies' populations will never accept their loss. They will have spent far top much money and blood to have done so... think the german population after world war 1 with their resentment towards France combined with the idea that the German population didnt lose, it was the politicians fault. International cooperation will be a no show aka the League of Nations as it will be doubtful the US and maybe even Britain will join. Depending on how much dmg is done to the US mainland, the US with a weak leader may even go down a future of extreme nationalism and fasicm... also no marshall plan. This means europe and japan wont be as well off and on their feet either... Germany will need to step into those shoes but how much will the people of Europe accept their help with gratitude after their occupationa? Scary world incoming. No international cooperation with untested nukes
 
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Man this is going to be a dark world. Germanys economy is going to be in ruins. They will probably still win the war... but the allies' populations will never accept their loss. They will have spent far top much money and blood to have done so... think the german population after world war 1 with their resentment towards France combined with the idea that the German population didnt lose, it was the politicians fault. International cooperation will be a no show aka the League of Nations as it will be doubtful the US and maybe even Britain will join. Depending on how much dmg is done to the US mainland, the US with a weak leader may even go down a future of extreme nationalism and fasicm... also no marshall plan. This means europe and japan wont be as well off and on their feet either... Germany will need to step into those shoes but how much will the people of Europe accept their help with gratitude after their occupationa? Scary world incoming. No international cooperation with untested nukes
I have a feeling it is going to be a 3 power bloc world post war. Something like Europe v USSR ("like"-hate relationship) and USA v everyone else (Europe v USSR v USA).

I think the UK will join the TTL's UN if FDR goes through with his insane plan to overthrow Churchill and puppet the UK. The UK should be able to see the benefits of friendly relations with Germany. However, the USA has no choice but to trade with Germany post war if it wants access to future technology (it will be 99.99% civilian tech) e.g. modern medicine, more efficient engines, better electronics (mini vacuum tubes) etc. If France and Germany could reconcile after a long period of extremely hostile rivalry (1870-1950) then a gradual reconciliation can happen between the USA and Germany. Also, you can even have a look at Japanese-USA relations for a better comparison. USA practically destroyed and dismantled the IJN, carried out disarmament, dropped 2 atomic bombs and firebombed on a large scale. Look at where USA-Japan relations are today.
At worst USA-Germany relations will mirror the cold war USA-USSR relations and at best it will be a gradual warming like France-Germany post war (assuming FDR doesn't go full cold war mode).

As far as US going down the path of fascism I doubt that. USA had been fighting for a while against Nazi Germany with the full support of the population so I can't see the population supporting a fascist government. A military junta type government (after a coup) would have a higher possibility of coming into existence (even that is iffy).
 
@Darksoul2142 is right. FDR panics. He was winning a war against the very nation he hated and then he lost the invasion force, had to realize to fight a Germany 70 years from the future and nearly losing his 1944 election campaign. He is knocked on and so he act more furious. He isn't insane. He won't do something stupid. The next move will be very cunning, and... No, you need to read it later. He won't make a coup in Britain though. And he has still ONE possibility, ONE shot left. Actually two, but the other would have DIRE consequences.

The post war situation in the US will be interesting. More I can't tell you here.

A word about the Marshall plan. While I don't say, it had no consequence, it is overrated. The main reason for the economic restart of Europe was the economic freedom of West Germany and the end of JCS 1067 (and the Morgenthau cronies at the helm).
 
I have a feeling it is going to be a 3 power bloc world post war. Something like Europe v USSR ("like"-hate relationship) and USA v everyone else (Europe v USSR v USA).

I think the UK will join the TTL's UN if FDR goes through with his insane plan to overthrow Churchill and puppet the UK. The UK should be able to see the benefits of friendly relations with Germany. However, the USA has no choice but to trade with Germany post war if it wants access to future technology (it will be 99.99% civilian tech) e.g. modern medicine, more efficient engines, better electronics (mini vacuum tubes) etc. If France and Germany could reconcile after a long period of extremely hostile rivalry (1870-1950) then a gradual reconciliation can happen between the USA and Germany. Also, you can even have a look at Japanese-USA relations for a better comparison. USA practically destroyed and dismantled the IJN, carried out disarmament, dropped 2 atomic bombs and firebombed on a large scale. Look at where USA-Japan relations are today.
At worst USA-Germany relations will mirror the cold war USA-USSR relations and at best it will be a gradual warming like France-Germany post war (assuming FDR doesn't go full cold war mode).

As far as US going down the path of fascism I doubt that. USA had been fighting for a while against Nazi Germany with the full support of the population so I can't see the population supporting a fascist government. A military junta type government (after a coup) would have a higher possibility of coming into existence (even that is iffy).

The difference is that Japan knew they had been defeated. Lol they were occupied. The US wont feel that way. I dont see any reconciliation. I see tons of espionage and tech stealing, and a refusal of acknowledgement to get future help from Germany which will just make the situation more unstable in the US.
 
I'm not really sure how the US cannot see that they've lost. The US Navy in the Atlantic has been destroyed. The US Air Force in Europe and the Mediterranean is destroyed. The US Army and Marine Corps and Airborne sent to fight in Europe have been crushed and are either dead or reduced to POWs.

Hell, the USN and the USAAF are mutinying over the sheer losses being inflicted on them by the Germans, and that the politicians don't seem to care, and insist they fight to the death, to the point of considering putting 'morale officers' in place to make sure. I wouldn't be surprised if said morale officers end up hanging from the nearest tree the moment they try to implement Soviet-style summary executions to 'restore morale'.
 
I can't tell you much about PW USA. Everything would be a spoiler. The morale officers are part of that. Anyway, I found a possibility, in which the USA could still win. I will reveal that only later.
 
Well. I guess FDR could round up everyone in the US of german descent (just like they rounded up the ones with Japaneese family trees) and go "Stand down and get rolled over or theese people all die."?
Not stated of course that getting rolled over means they more or less all die, but nevermind that.

If FDR pulls the whole fleet from the west coast and add to that the ships they currently make - the US anno 1944 made A LOT of ships, very quickly - they could do a zerg rush. Absolutely insanely expensive in lives, of course, but possible. Add that to some well-timed massacre threats, drown own population, army and fleet in propaganda - could be doable. Could also result in FDR getting shot as a monster by a random mobster hitman morally horrified at the kind of person he is, but doable. Faking nazi chemical attacks in american cities (or similar) might (or might not) be neccessary to get people to go along with it.

Drowning germany in assassins who all try to strike just beforehand is of course also an option, but very few leaders want to go that route. It just leads to everyone else doing the same, targeting them, afterwards. Maybe if they can make it look like the communists?

Hmm.

There are other options too, but most of them are even crazier. I just can't see FRD managing to convince the Japaneese to attack Germany as mercenaries. Maybe try to bribe them to an armistice or peace treaty?
 
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There are other options too, but most of them are even crazier. I just can't see FRD managing to convince the Japaneese to attack Germany as mercenaries. Maybe try to bribe them to an armistice or peace treaty?

If striking Europe from Noth America is logistically difficult, doing the same from East Asia strikes me as impossible to do with any real force. The only reason Britain could do the reverse was by way of a huge logistical base in India and not having naval superiority against them. I'm not sure how getting Japan to switch sides would make much of a material difference over occupying it and seizing ships and materiel.
 
If striking Europe from Noth America is logistically difficult, doing the same from East Asia strikes me as impossible to do with any real force.
True enough.
I'm not sure how getting Japan to switch sides would make much of a material difference over occupying it and seizing ships and materiel.
USA no longer being at war with Japan, and therefore being able to pull in all the fleets and soldiers currently in the Pacific and on the west coast would matter a lot.

Taking and holding Japan with the already reduced fleets the americans have in the pacific? Sure, they could try. However, while you can say A LOT about imperial japan's morals - their insane tenacity in holding ground was legendary. Blitzing Japan with the now significantly reduced Pacific fleet will probably at best be a phyrric victory, and might fail horribly. That may or may not be obvious to american politicians, of course.

I could see FDR just writing off China and India (those British just gave up anyway), and hoping Japan comes to blows with Russia later on.
 
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I'm not really sure how the US cannot see that they've lost. The US Navy in the Atlantic has been destroyed. The US Air Force in Europe and the Mediterranean is destroyed. The US Army and Marine Corps and Airborne sent to fight in Europe have been crushed and are either dead or reduced to POWs.

Hell, the USN and the USAAF are mutinying over the sheer losses being inflicted on them by the Germans, and that the politicians don't seem to care, and insist they fight to the death, to the point of considering putting 'morale officers' in place to make sure. I wouldn't be surprised if said morale officers end up hanging from the nearest tree the moment they try to implement Soviet-style summary executions to 'restore morale'.

Did the US get hit? And wasnt the US winning? And so and so signed a peace treaty for our losing the war? Obviously the generals and politicians betrayed us to get cool german toys from this so called 'future'. It doesnt matter how logical a loss is when you are reeling from the loss of husbands, brothers and sons and being told it accounted for nothing. And in fact had to pay reparations and say sorry... Scapegoats will abound and it will be Germany the enemy and the 'cowardly' leaders of America fault. The emotions will run high. Im not say America didnt lose, and Im not saying that America wont sign a peqce treaty acknowledging that they lost but the publics heart will not admit fault and the public will be more than bitter. And that way lies trouble for everyone. After all they still will have the most industrial ability of any country on Earth.
 
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Did the US get hit? And wasnt the US winning? And so and so signed a peace treaty for our losing the war? Obviously the generals and politicians betrayed us to get cool german toys from this so called 'future'. It doesnt matter how logical a loss is when you are reeling from the loss of husbands, brothers and sons and being told it accounted for nothing. And in fact had to pay reparations and say sorry... Scapegoats will abound and it will be Germany the enemy and the 'cowardly' leaders of America fault. The emotions will run high. Im not say America didnt lose, and Im not saying that America wont sign a peqce treaty acknowledging that they lost but the publics heart will not admit fault and the public will be more than bitter. And that way lies trouble for everyone. After all they still will have the most industrial ability of any country on Earth.

That only applies if there is a single united states, in a post war world.

You could in a peace treaty, demand that the US split into 7-10 separate pieces and give Alaska to Canada.

Depending on how shit the war has gone, that might even get accepted.
 
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Well. I guess FDR could round up everyone in the US of german descent (just like they rounded up the ones with Japaneese family trees) and go "Stand down and get rolled over or theese people all die."?
Not stated of course that getting rolled over means they more or less all die, but nevermind that.

If FDR pulls the whole fleet from the west coast and add to that the ships they currently make - the US anno 1944 made A LOT of ships, very quickly - they could do a zerg rush. Absolutely insanely expensive in lives, of course, but possible. Add that to some well-timed massacre threats, drown own population, army and fleet in propaganda - could be doable. Could also result in FDR getting shot as a monster by a random mobster hitman morally horrified at the kind of person he is, but doable. Faking nazi chemical attacks in american cities (or similar) might (or might not) be neccessary to get people to go along with it.

Drowning germany in assassins who all try to strike just beforehand is of course also an option, but very few leaders want to go that route. It just leads to everyone else doing the same, targeting them, afterwards. Maybe if they can make it look like the communists?

Hmm.

There are other options too, but most of them are even crazier. I just can't see FRD managing to convince the Japaneese to attack Germany as mercenaries. Maybe try to bribe them to an armistice or peace treaty?
FDR might have another war on his hands. There was a high rate of intermarriage between American of German descent and Americans of Anglo descent.
 
I don't think FDR's going to try and take his own population hostage in order to try and force the Germans to anything; I don't believe he's gone THAT far off the rails.
 
I can say, FDR won't act against the German descents. He would not have the power anymore if he tried. And a Zerg run with ships he had just tried and failed, as he sent too few. Another attempt is too problematic right now.
 
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